Huffington Post: Clinton 52% Obama 48%

[Road Scholar]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

1. Only 4 pts. in her own home state?

Ouch.

[NightWatcher]

where IS she from? Arkansas, New York, Chicago,??????

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

8. You forgot Bosnia and Iran.

[Cali_Democrat]

12. She from anywhere where she can advance her political career

She would probably claim she's Puerto Rican if it helps her.

[thevolt1]

19. Where is Obama from? Kenya, Hawaii, Indonesia, Illinois, Kansas?

[Alexander]

25. Clearly "born in Hawaii and living in Illinois the past 20 years" is the right answer.

Way to go on your first post.

[NightWatcher]

29. welcome back to DU?

[IDemo]

28. Don't forget Guam

[Political Tiger]

47. Good question!

LOL

[NightWatcher]

2. no way!!! that would rock

she needs 20%, but to only get 4???

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

4. She needs thirty.

In every single contest.

[Road Scholar]

7. Way!!

[tekisui]

3. Jeezus. Polls are still open 2 more hours!!!

They shouldn't be going with this.



Although, I like those numbers, they shouldn't do it.

[TheDonkey]

13. I agree these exit poll bullshit stuff should be illegal

[Window]

37. I abhor exit polls.

:thumbsdown:

[Coexist]

40. great stuff on the stupidity of early exit polls on kos:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/22/18202/4831/397/501002

Having worked at networks for every election since 1992, my advice on exit polls? Ignore them. They aren't very good. Any contest that is so close than you couldnt figure out who was going to win by reading the previous week's Time or Newsweek is too close for an exit poll to tell you anything. It's a poll, it's not a count.

In 2004, while you guys all got your panties in a wad over the exit polls, I stayed away from the network where I worked until 5:00pm, did not allow anyone to tell me over my cell phone or open any emails on my blackberry that appeared to have anything about exit polls and any emails that looked like they had any exit poll data in it, I immediately closed the email before seeing the results.



Just to put a bit more emphasis on the previous update: The results "leaked" for Ohio at this hour on 3/4 showed Obama leading by 2. Clinton won by 10.




I see that at least one publication has posted leaked exit poll results that most will consider a bit surprising. Please keep in mind that these leaked estimates have typically shown a skew in Obama's favor. See the table in my 3/7 National Journal column. Errors on the margin occurred (at this hour) in Obama's favor in 18 or 20 states I looked at, averaging 7 points in Obama's favor

[Window]

41. Thanks for sharing.

:hi:

[PM7nj]

5. Oh please...

HuffPo becomes more Drudgeish every time I go there.

[DJ13]

6. Sounds like the numbers Drudge put up a half hour ago

Probably where they got it from.

But.....I do hope its accurate, as that would signal the end of the Clinton nightmare on our party.

[El Supremo]

9. Note this

from Mark Ambinder:

25% of Clinton supporters say they'd vote for McCain in the general election; 17% of Obama supporters say they'd vote for McCain in the general election. Still, 57% of Pennsylvanians believed that Sen. Clinton "attacked" unfairly compared to 49% who thought Obama did.

[DerekJ]

10. "notoriously unreliable"

[featherman]

11. That would be a good result in my book

but there is a caveat somewhere on the web that exit polls tend to tilt Obama for some reason. So... grain of salt?
Good news though.

[AllentownJake]

Wonder if that was the exit poll

I was querried for this morning hmm

[Road Scholar]

17. It was an exit poll.

[jsamuel]

14. hmmm, she won people who decided in the last week by 16%

but only won by 4% total? Either the polls showing her with a lead were wrong or there is something wrong with the exit poll.

[adoraz]

24. or maybe

Obama supporters came out a lot stronger for him?

[derby378]

15. Clinton has to win big in PA tonight - and 52% isn't big enough

Unless she beats Obama by 10 or more points, this may be it for her campaign. Then we turn to the superdelegates and a brawl on the convention floor in Denver, I fear...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

31. 20 or more points.

Anything else is smoke and mirrors.

[derby378]

48. Well, last I heard, she's at 10 points...

...so does this mean she's on life support at this point, or is she going to make this a fight for superdelegates?

[Coexist]

16. early exit polls in

Mass - Obama win
Ohio - Obama loses by 3


PLEASE! Don't get your hopes up due to these #s. They are always poor.

[ORDem]

18. 20% said race mattered in their choice, 20% said the same of gender.

No way to know how they overlap though. Still plenty of sexism and racism in PA looks like.

:dem:

[featherman]

20. Commentary on this from fivethirtyeight.com

"But if you were unable to resist temptation and wandered over to the D.R., would there be anything particularly "dramatic" about exit poll results showing Clinton 4 points ahead? For that matter, would there be anything particularly dramatic about the (almost assuredly bullshit) "internal polls" on Drudge yesterday showing Clinton 11 points ahead? Our demographic analysis projected a Clinton win of 7-8 points, with a standard error of about 6 points around that estimate. That's not to say that there isn't a difference between, say, a 4-point victory for Clinton and an 11-point victory. But only when we get outside that standard error range projected by the demographic model -- a Clinton win by fewer than 2 points, or more than about 13 points -- would I call the results truly dramatic.

p.s. I'm sticking with my initial guess: Clinton by 7-8. And in what is perhaps the most substantive finding at this point, the exit polls suggest that there hasn't been a surge of late-deciders. About 20 percent decided in the last week, as compared to ~30 percent in Ohio and Texas."

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[BlooInBloo]

21. Getting their numbers from drudge, and exit polling is about as right as flipping a coin.

[Road Scholar]

26. Close is good enough for me in this situation. She didn't sweep

Pa.:toast:

[BlooInBloo]

35. We have exactly zero reason to believe that it's close.

[Freida5]

Wait till the rural results come in.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

33. Social conservatives for Clinton?

[Freida5]

22. Wait till the rural results come in.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

32. Social conservatives for Clinton?

[beachmom]

45. Wait for the REAL votes to come in, not a poll. nt

[Freida5]

23. Wait till the rural results come in.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

34. Social conservatives for Clinton?

[thevolt1]

27. Clinton will win by 10+ points

[sniffa]

30. Is this where Drudge got it from? Or vice versa?

:shrug:

[Bucky]

36. This poll is useless ("1,421 Democratic primary voters conducted in 40 precincts across PA")

"From a partial sample of 1,421 Democratic primary voters conducted in 40 precincts across Pennsylvania by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks."

They're sampling from only 40 precincts? That seems a bit low.

[Edgewater_Joe]

38. I'll Take It!

That should set her up for IN/NC clinching in two weeks.

[ej510]

39. Rural area probably have not come in yet which will substanially open up her lead.

[GoesTo11]

42. election markets see good news for HRC

As of now, her share price is up today for PA, Nomination, election.

I read that as people discounting the exit polls.

[tinrobot]

43. If it's that close, she's toast.

She can crow victory, but the victory will be hollow because she won't be cutting delegate counts (or popular vote)

North Carolina will more than make up for this, and Indiana seems like a wash at this point.

[beachmom]

44. Josh Marshall said exit polls are notoriously wrong, and have been

wrong in Obama's favor during this campaign season.

Grain of salt.

[Road Scholar]

46. Anything close to 4% will shut Hillary down. She's broke and who

is gonna give money to those circumstances?