You don't need a crystal ball to know what the Superdelegates are gonna do.

FlyingSquirrel

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Tue Apr-22-08 06:29 PM
Original message

You don't need a crystal ball to know what the Superdelegates are gonna do.

Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 06:42 PM by FlyingSquirrel

Might not even need one to know when they're gonna do it.

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20080421/NEWS02/956876476/-1/news02

About a third said the most important factor will be the candidate who, they believe, has the best chance of beating Republican Sen. John McCain in the general election.

One in 10 said the biggest factor will be the candidate with the most pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses.

One in 10 said what matters most is who won their state or congressional district in the primary or caucus.

(This thread directed primarily toward Hillary supporters who are offended by "cute math threads".)

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Now before you jump to say that means that 70% of the remaining Supers still might choose Hillary (which is what would need to happen -- at a minimum -- for her to overcome the Pledged Delegates), consider the following:

That "third" who will choose the candidate they believe has the best chance of beating John McCain, will not all go with Hillary. They don't all think, as you do, that she would have the best chance. Many will be weighing her consistent high negatives, consistent polls showing Obama doing better against McCain, etc. In other words, that "third" will be probably split right down the middle just like the country is.

So, give Hillary 1/6 of the Supers, plus 1/20 of those who go with her because she won their state or district.

Give Obama 1/6 of the Supers, plus 1/20, plus 1/10th (those who will go with the PD winner).

That gives Hillary a base of 21.67%, and Obama a base of 31.67%. The remaining 46.66% apparently wouldn't divulge what it was that they'd base their decision on.

Hillary would have to take the ENTIRE remaining 46.66% to get 68.33% of all remaining Supers.

Now that's some cute math for ya.

Even if she took 80% of that remaining 46.66%, she would end up with only 59% of the remaining Supers.

That's 182 of them.

As shown in THIS "cute" math thread, the absolute best Clinton could hope for by the end of primaries would be 1815 vs 1905 for Obama.

So, add 182 + 1815 = 1997 for Clinton; add 126 + 1905 = 2031 for Obama.

That above line assumes:

Clinton wins PA 55% to 45%
Clinton wins IN 54% to 46%
Obama wins NC 56% to 44%
Clinton wins all remaining delegates, 59% to 41%
Clinton wins 59% of remaining Supers.

Only by taking 68% of the remaining Supers (209 of them) could she reach the necessary 2,024. And the only way for her to get 68% of them would be to take ALL of the Supers who haven't already stated what the basis for their decision will be.

AND, if Obama does better in all the above scenarios (which he is EXTREMELY likely to do), there is NO way there will be enough Clinton Superdelegates to overturn the resulting delegate count.

Now refute this with something besides BS.

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P.S. Obama will reach the landmark 1,627 Pledged Delegates (over half) on May 20. At that point, if 10% endorse he'll get at least 25. It may trigger a landslide. May 20 is the date I'm looking forward to, although of course I'd like to see it happen sooner.

P.P.S. Don't get mathematicians ticked off. It only makes them work harder.

;-)