TOO CLOSE TO CALL

[kpete]

April 22, 2008

Early exit poll spells bad news for Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton is expected to win the Pennsylvania primary


The first exit poll for tonight's Demoratic primnary in Pennsylvania has suggested that the election may be a very close call between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

With another hour to go until the first results are expected the poll indicated that Mrs Clinton had won the state but by a dangerously narrow margin of 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

Exit polls have tended to exaggerate Barack Obama's showing in other primary contests but if it turned out to be accurate it would represent a hammer blow to the Clinton campaign.

Analysts had expected the former First Lady to score an easy win in a state dominated by white and working class voters that form her core support. Failure to notch up a convincing victory would make it very hard for her to continue in the race.

more at:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3799746.ece

UPDATES
Cable networks say race 'too close to call'RAW STORY
Published: Tuesday April 22, 2008


Just after the Pennsylvania polls closed Tuesday night, two news organizations said that the race was too close to call.

"The fiercely contested Pennsylvania presidential primary was too close to call, NBC News reported as polls closed Tuesday night in a contest analysts said Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York had to win if she were to remain a credible candidate for the Democratic nomination," MSNBC reports.

The report adds, "Clinton, independent analysts and the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois had predicted ahead of time that Clinton would win the state, where she enjoyed large leads in opinion polls until recently. But after closing the deficit in the last few weeks, Obama’s advisers said he would have the momentum unless Clinton won by a sizable margin."

On CNN, anchor Wolf Blitzer said that the race was "very competitive."

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Cable_networks_say_race_too_close_0422.html

NBC says Pennsylvania primary too close to call
Democrats collide in last big-state contest of presidential campaign

more at:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24251043/

Breaking: Andrea Mitchel already reported bad news from inside Clinton camp!!!
by Hope Monger
Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:16:22 PM PDT
She just said the Clinton camp has known for two hours!!!

SHE WILL NOT HAVE THE VICTORY SHE NEEDED!!!

And she also said, the campaign is out of money!

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/22/201046/319/324/501059

[geek tragedy]

1. Exit polls are NOT accurate. n/t

[kpete]

3. "accurate"

has not been a word to use in a USA election since 2000

and I post this only as a reference point

[movonne]

6. Unless it looks good for my candidate...then they are perfect..

[nichomachus]

7. Well, you have to ask

whether it's the exit polls that are inaccurate or the reported vote totals that are inaccurate. If you assumed the reported totals from the Diebold machines are accurate, then you would expect the exit polls to reflect those.

[Mr Rabble]

8. No, they are actually VERY accurate.

Go have a look through the data from the last 5 cycles and you will see that exit polling was very very accurate until...2004...when the exit polling was "adjusted" to match the tabulated results. In other words...stolen.

[geek tragedy]

12. Early, unweighted results are garbage.

Early exit polls showed Obama winning MA.

[KaryninMiami]

13. Thank you. Exit Polls on election day have been 97% accurate since their inception.

When they do not match the results within 3 or 4 points, there is something wrong. Could be malfunctions, could be disenfranchisement, could be fraud, could be any number of things - but something is wrong when the numbers don't match. That's how we know 2004 was rigged. It's also why we went to the Ukraine because there was clear evidence of election fraud- they knew because of the exit polls.

Do not confuse the day of election exit poll numbers with polls taken days, weeks or months before which are more like projections and are often not accurate.

[geek tragedy]

18. Early, unweighted results are NOT accurate.

Or did Obama wind up winning Arizona and Massachusetts?

[Road Scholar]

15. Close is close enough here.

[The Doctor.]

19. LMAO!!! That's a joke, right?

I mean... that's exactly what the Freeptards were saying when Gore and Kerry were ahead in the exit polls before the results mysteriously reversed.

[NorthCarolina]

21. Especially in a state that relies heavily on electronic voting n/t

[ORDem]

2. exit polls, especially early ones, are almost all crap. I wish a 4pt loss were so, but this season

they have almost always exaggerated any lead or closeness Obama had. If this one is par for the course, then it's saying that Obama will lose by 11 points.

:dem:

[suston96]

4. I believe your exit poll is way too early. Try CNN, Fox, and others. They are more current. nt

[cbayer]

5. No reputable news organization releases exit poll data prior to poll closure. nt.

[verges]

24. Okay,

so watch FOX.

[cbayer]

27. I am not sure what you are saying.

The major and legitimate news sources have agreed not to report exit polling prior to poll closure because it can influence votes. The only ones being reported today at DU were two right wing sources.

Now that the polls have closed, all sources can begin reporting.

[verges]

29. You're saying FOX is reputable?

n-t

[cbayer]

32. OK, logic lesson

No reputable news source releases exit polls before the polls close

Fox does not release exit data before the polls close.

Therefore, Fox is reputable.

Fail.


No reputable new source releases exit polls before the polls close.

The only sources that released polls were two rw sites.

Therefore those rw sites are not reputable.

Pass.

[verges]

25. Dupe

Dupe

[MeDeMax]

9. 80% of the voters are white, 14% Black, (msnbc) not a good ratio for Barack

(unfortunately).

[Catherina]

10. Bad news for Hillary Clinton is good news for the world right now

It looks like other countries aren't taking too kindly to the idea of having another leader in the White House who thinks obliteration is diplomacy.

[TexasLady]

11. All I know is, I dont wanna see anyone as 'projected winner' and a pic

of them, within the first several minutes of closing. That'll suck.

[Zhade]

14. ANOTHER hammer blow, that is. She's toast.

NT!

[AnnieBW]

16. Philly and Pittsburgh will report in soon

Pensyltucky will probably be much later.

[The Wielding Truth]

17. Crazy... MSNBC ten minutes ago says polls are closed

and Hillary has won. That is crazy. It is 7:25.I hate when they do that. Chris Matthews later says the polls are still open get out and vote. Then Joe Scarborough is slapping Harold Ford around saying Barack lost this race "hypothetically", what do you tell the delegates. The polls are still not closed and Chris Matthews says, the closing is moments away. It's 7:49. I don't think of moments as 11 minutes.

No mattered what happens. The showing is Obama leading and the win or lose should not be discussed unless it is a landslide. No declaration's should be made.

[mopinko]

20. a hammer blow

has never sounded so sweet.

[ima_sinnic]

22. ah, there is no phrase in the English language lovelier than "bad news for Hillary Clinton"

music to my ears!

now let's just hope it pans out -- because bad news for Hillary Clinton is most excellent news for everybody else in the world.

[stevietheman]

23. Too Close to Call = Obama Wins n/t

n/t

[Scurrilous]

26. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Austinitis]

28. Not anymore...

[Hoof Hearted]

30. so, what do you think their motivation was?

[Maven]

31. hmm.

ratings?

:think:

[RememberWellstone]

33. She should give up after tonight.

Not.:eyes: