Obama ahead in NC by 20 points - what are chances Hillary closes that gap?

[blm]

I think she CAN gain 4 points tops, and will still lose big....58-41.

[GarbagemanLB]

1. Has she EVER gone into a state behind? It seems to me it is always Obama who closes the gap.

[blm]

3. She'd start out 20-35 points ahead and Obama would always close to varying degrees

But the wins he has were by much bigger margins.

[dsc]

14. she was behind in every single solitary southern state

except Tennessee and Arkansas which she won.

[stray cat]

2. If she is a viable candidate she should win NC (sarcasm)

[NeedleCast]

4. Sounds about right

I'm not aware of any state where Hillary started off behind and caught or passed Obama.

[GoesTo11]

5. Does she get to spend 3x what Obama spends?

[tekisui]

7. No, she's in debt.

She cannot earn the support of the netroots, grassroots and "those pesky activists".

[DUyellow]

8. She didn't when she had money. If she thinks she can, she has her own money.

[dchill]

10. Sure, if she coughs up some of her...

109 million dollars!

[GoesTo11]

12. Good response

[beachmom]

18. Exactly. She has the dough. She needs to put her money where her mouth is. nt

[blm]

15. You mean like she did in Iowa and NH? I'm sure Bill's work for those he protected on BCCI matters

will manage to get the many millions they will need to cover any of the debt they accrue, though. No problem - Bill's picking up 20 million from the Dubai-Yucaipa deal, right?

Funny how all those protected throughout the 90s when Bill deep-sixed BCCI matters for them have never forgotten to pay their enormous RE$PECT and THANK$ to Bill these past 8 years.

[cliffordu]

32. Yep, if her corporate sugar daddys come up with the scratch

[stillcool]

37. Why is it that Hillary supporters..

can not fund their candidates campaign? Where did all the money go..and When is she going to pay her bills?

[DUyellow]

6. I was going to post the same. Can she do it? How can she win a GE if she can't close?

[tekisui]

9. Her chances of closing it: Zero Point Zero.

[blm]

16. No hope and......Bob Hope?

.

[jackson_dem]

11. She has a 5% chance of winning NC and that is only if she wins PA big

Obama has a rock solid 90% black vote in a 1/3 black Dem primary. All he needs is token 30-33% white support to win and it is very likely that he can reach that in NC.

[Hawkeye-X]

17. And she didn't win PA big - she won it with 8.6%, pending on provisional ballots

and more numbers out of Philly, so it should knock her down at about 7.5%, if anything at all.

Hawkeye-X

[ScarletSniper]

27. token? explain

[tledford]

40. Speaking as a white North Carolinian...

I can guesstimate based on personal observations that Obama will get the votes of at least 40% of white Democrats; perhaps more.

[Yukari Yakumo]

13. zilch

No Money + High Negatives + High AA Pop = Not a chance in Hell.

[NC_Nurse]

19. Slim to none. I'm on it! Along with 1000's of other volunteers. Most of the

State legislature - over 20 of them endorsed Barack yesterday. Including Dan Blue, former Speaker of the NC House and
Dem Extroardinaire!

[kentuck]

20. So he could win back the votes he lost in PA?

And would end the last hope of Hillary to win the popular vote?

[MattNC]

22. yes n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

30. Well played!

:applause:

This is how I pictured your question being asked:

[MattNC]

21. Breakdown

Pros for Obama:

Relatively large AA pop. (over 20% of the pop.)
Growing higher educated white pop.
Lots of college towns
Relatively low "working class" white pop. (most of them here are Republican anyway)
Low Catholic pop.
Growing but still low Latino pop.
No major political machine (Rendell/Strickland) working against him here
Almost all of the major endorsements (and the governor is probably staying neutral)


Here's hoping for a 20+ pt. win. I'll be more than glad with anything above about 13.

[Tarheel_Dem]

25. and both the major Dem candidates for Governor have endorsed

Obama. And a strong desire to reverse what PA did last night.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

23. Where'd you get 20? Realpolitics is showing a lot less.

[MattNC]

33. PPP/Rasmussen

have it over 20. S-USA has it by 9.

[Indenturedebtor]

24. Wait wasn't Hillary that candidate who..

Wasn't Hillary that candidate who lost and went into debt a couple of months ago? I thought we were getting ready for the GE already ;)

[AlinPA]

26. If she goes negative big time, Wright ads, "Muslim", Ayers, guns, God, etc,

but doubt that are NC Democrats are stupid.

[Milo_Bloom]

28. I am guessing a 10 point Clinton loss.

[redqueen]

29. If she somehow miraculously manages to get within 10-12 points...

will that be spun by the M$M as a resounding victory too?

[PlanetBev]

31. Republican 527's are going to run in NC before primary

bringing up the same old Rev. Wright, Bitter, etc. shit. They want Hillary so bad, they can taste it. I also believe there is same day registration in both NC and Indiana. Rush's ditto-zombies will be there to answer the dog whistle, no doubt.

Obama will have fight out the rest of the primaries on two fronts.

[stillcool]

38. Yup. The republicans are going..

to help Hillary out, because she has no money to put up for commercials. I wonder what kind of a deal they made?

[mystieus]

39. Disgusting!

All the while we've got shinsnake over there acting like anyone tied to Fox News or other notorious offenders are trying to be "fair and balanced".

Sure why not rally your Republican base to dishevel the democratic process of another party!

Not nearly as bad as him mocking the effects of Parkinson's on Michael Jay Fox though, but still, not helpful in the slightest.

We can always hope this stuff is illegal and he'll pay with some jail time. Fuck Rush Limbaugh and his ignorant, racist, Republican loving ass.

[PoliticalAmazon]

34. It depends on how much credit the media markets are willing to extend. n/t

[Ganja Ninja]

35. Hillary was ahead in PA by 20 points and lost ground.

Now lets see if she can "close the deal" in NC. I'll bet she loses ground again.

[auburngrad82]

36. I'm seeing a lot of Obama bumper stickers in and around Raleigh nt

[tledford]

41. And in Greensboro and High Point, too...

And many of the cars have white drivers.

Of course, Kerry carried Guilford, Forsythe, Wake, Durham, Orange, Mecklenburg, Ashe and New Brunswick counties in 2004 and Gore in 2000. Along with quite a few rural counties. As with many other states, it's the rural counties overall that tilt the state red.