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How in the hell can anyone project a winner with only 3%

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TheDebbieDee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 07:51 PM
Original message
How in the hell can anyone project a winner with only 3%
of the votes counted? Does that make any sense?
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Poll_Blind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 07:53 PM
Response to Original message
1. No, it doesn't and I'm watching what apparently is a debacle of epic proportions on MSNBC
Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 07:54 PM by Poll_Blind
Olbermann even took a jab at whomever sent it down the pipe. "In the last 50 minutes we've gone from too close to call, to too EARLY to call and now, a projected winner?"

Some bigwig at MSNBC is probably sweating it because FOX ignorantly called it for Clinton.

PB
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Bucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 07:53 PM
Response to Original message
2. Statistical sampling.
Also, she's cute.
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HiFructosePronSyrup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 07:53 PM
Original message
Exit polls.
If the early returns match exit poll data with high fidelity they can project a winner early.
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dnbmathguy Donating Member (112 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 07:53 PM
Response to Original message
3. Exit polls
They didn't initially call it, presumably because the exit polls were within the margin of error. If she was doing better than expected in that 3%, that could be enough to push her over the margin of error of the exit polls.
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onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 07:53 PM
Response to Original message
4. Welcome to Politics 101.
You must be new. This is how it always is especially when there is a clear winner.
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Lil Missy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 07:53 PM
Response to Original message
5. It's partially based on exit polling too. n/t
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Rosa Luxemburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 07:54 PM
Response to Original message
6. they have a good idea
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stevedeshazer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
7. It's happened many times
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
8. Depends where the votes are coming in from
certain key precincts can be fairly predictive of the outcome- though not necessarily the margin of victory.
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Exultant Democracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 07:58 PM
Response to Original message
9. Yes it makes sense, they can generally call it as soon as the polls close without a count.
The only time they don't call it is when the exit polls are in the margin of error.
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cui bono Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 07:58 PM
Response to Original message
10. I call Bullshit.
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SCRUBDASHRUB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 07:59 PM
Response to Original message
11. I know. Pisses me off, too.
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nebula Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 07:59 PM
Response to Original message
12. Fox was given the Diebold results in advance

that's how!
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sniffa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 08:00 PM
Response to Original message
13. They do it with 0%
The calls are usually correct, save a Florida or two.
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ileus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 08:01 PM
Response to Original message
14. didn't obama project a winner b4 the first vote was cast?
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IamyourTVandIownyou Donating Member (446 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 08:02 PM
Response to Original message
15. Not sure, but legislation needs to be passed that if they are wrong.
They pay a fine.
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FlyingSquirrel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 08:02 PM
Response to Original message
16. OMFG
OMFG
OMFG

Just for that I think I'll go kick Ten Things to Remember on Tuesday Night just to make myself feel better about this.

:crazy:
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southerncrone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 08:03 PM
Response to Original message
17. Exit polls only reflect a few voters a some precincts. Makes more
sense to assume the voting machines are rigged, so we know the outcome before anyone casts a vote on election day.

Look out for November. We never got the voting machine problem addressed, so the Repukes can still win in November. It's all about the software.
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HuffleClaw Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 08:19 PM
Response to Original message
18. we had a federal election in Canada in recent years...
...in which the CBC called the election about five minutes after the polls closed. it was some boring.
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