Bitter? Obama's class problem. What would Obama do in the GE with a diminished affluent base?

[jackson_dem]

Vote by Income

The first number is for Clinton, the second for Obama. Ironic isn't it? There many things $2 million a week over six weeks can buy. The votes of working folks in Pennsylvania is not one of them. :thumbsup:

Under $15,000

(7%)

49%

51%

$15-30,000

(13%)

55%

45%

$30-50,000

(20%)

56%

44%

$50-75,000

(21%)

54%

46%

$75-100,000

(14%)

49%

51%

$100-150,000

(13%)

59%

40%

$150-200,000

(6%)

46%

54%

$200,000 or More

(7%)

35%

65%

Which Dem has won the White House without working folks? Obama's Starbucks Dem base will be much smaller in the GE. Affluent people exert disproportionate influence in primaries--something not lost on the supers. The fact is if you had GE demographics for the primaries Obama would be losing by at least 15% and the supers know it.

Here is the 2004 election breakdown by income in PA (Senate exit poll):

Under $15,000 (9%) 42% 51% 5%
$15-30,000 (16%) 48% 49% 2%
$30-50,000 (26%) 53% 43% 4%
$50-75,000 (22%) 54% 40% 6%
$75-100,000 (12%) 52% 42% 4%
$100-150,000 (9%) 58% 36% 3%
$150-200,000 (3%) 65% 31% 4%
$200,000 or More (3%) 79% 19% 1%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/epolls.0.html

Net change from primaries to the GE using PA as a sample:

200k+ -4%
150-200k -3%
100-150k -4%
75-100k -2%
50-75k -1%

30-50K +6%
15-30k +3%
15k or less +2%

Both candidates are flawed. The difference is Clinton is winning the votes and states that are vital in the GE. Obama's bases shrink and there are 0 caucuses in the general election.

[uponit7771]

1. Penn is a Hillary home state and she can only win it by single digits

[jackson_dem]

10. This is about Obama. Our nominee, wink wink, right?

He can't win working folks. How can he win the general? He won't be bailed out by Starbucks voters in the GE because there will simply be less of them as a percentage of the electorate.

[democracy1st]

24. You got that right your nominee

[Fearless]

2. Hey, I'm bitter. Gas is $3.56 a gallon. What if we nuke Iran... then what??

[DJ13]

3. I have more faith in real Democrats to vote Obama over McCain than you

I guess that makes you not a real Democrat?

[jackson_dem]

6. I know political history. You apparently don't

[Occam Bandage]

7. Channeling Tom Cruise, eh?

[Usrename]

56. lol

I never did believe in politics, and now that I've studied history I know why, it's all just pseudo-science.

:rofl:

[DJ13]

9. If you knew politcal history you would cease supporting the loser

[jackson_dem]

18. I support the one candidate remaining he can win the GE

I want McSame out the White House. Do you?

[Occam Bandage]

32. He can, indeed, win the GE. So if you support Obama, why do you keep posting in defense

of Clinton?

[cliffordu]

4. Down by 20 4 weeks ago, prolly by 4 by the end of the night.

Nice try....

[Occam Bandage]

5. Given that he strongly outperforms Clinton in head-to-head polls against McCain, i'd say the

answer is, "win."

[jackson_dem]

17. Losing Wyoming by 10 instead of 20 won't do us any good in the GE

[Occam Bandage]

21. Nope. Winning the popular vote by 5% instead of losing it by 10% will, however. You can

make all sorts of inane demographic arguments about his "base," be they based on race or based on class, but you're arguing counterfactually. Obama polls better against McCain than Clinton does, and he does so consistently.

[jackson_dem]

44. That ignores history and political gravity

First of all he does only 1-2 points better. That comes from places like Montana and Utah. Losing those states by 10 points less does us no good in the GE. He does worse in the key swing states.

You also assume that Obama is immune to political gravity. The "new" candidate should be thrashing McSame in the polls in a change year. Instead he is basically tied in the popular vote and losing the electoral college. Both Bush and Kerry lost 11 points from the spring to the GE when the other party attacked them. If that happens to Obama he loses the GE by the same margin Carter did...

Do you believe a "new" candidate who isn't running against an incumbent will actually be stronger after the other party starts to attack him? It didn't happen to Kerry, Bush, Dukakis, and Carter. Obama is immune?

[book_worm]

8. What will Hillary do when young people, new voters, independents, and especially

African-American voters are apathetic and don't turn out in numbers needed for her to win? It seems to me both of them have some problems they will have to contend with if they are nominated. Put Claire McCaskill or Gov. Sebilius on the ticket with him and he'll make big gains among his weakest group, older women.

[MidwestTransplant]

23. She can make up for it with her high positive ratings....oh never mind

[jackson_dem]

45. O is far more liked yet he is less electable. Many folks like him but won't vote for him

Two words: no experience.

[OzarkDem]

30. McCaskill is a DINO, Sebilius - meh

That's pretty insulting to women voters to assume they'll switch to Obama just for a token women VP candidate on the ticket.

No thanks.

[book_worm]

38. Hillary has proven to be the DINO of this campaign.

[DemBones DemBones]

42. Obama is not going to win older white women. Period.

I don't know that he'll win many older black women, either, because throwing your grandma under the bus doesn't go over well with grandmas or people who appreciate their grandmas.

He could put Oprah on the ticket and still lose.

Haven't seen Oprah out campaigning for Obama again have you?

That's because Oprah's ratings have tanked since she campaigned for Obama.

[ingac70]

11. The working class would chose McCain in the GE?

the working class has pulled stupid shit in the past, like voting for Reagan, but if they don't see the writing on the wall with what will essentially be a third Bush term, then this nation gets what it asks for....

(I am a blue collar worker)

[jackson_dem]

13. Obama would need 48% of the white working class to win according to John Judis

Good luck getting that and holding onto 70% of Latinos with Obama...

[cali]

12. Obama folks: Don't feed it.

it's just more bullshit, devoid of any intellectual rigor or honesty.

[jackson_dem]

14. cali owned by the facts again and runs

[jefferson_dem]

15. Hillary got 8% of the vote from the Democrats most loyal voting bloc.

African-Americans.

Good luck with your "unelected supers should grab the nomination from Barack and hand it to the white lady" argument.

[jackson_dem]

20. So did Dukakis against Jesse Jackson. In the GE he got 9 out of 10 black votes

McSame isn't black. He won't gett the same level of black support Hillary's primary opponent does, just as Bush didn't get all the black votes for Jackson in 1988.

[jefferson_dem]

35. Thanks for not answering the question.

The math for her is unforgiving. Your smart enough to know that. The only way for her to win is to rely of the "screw Barack and give the nomination to the white lady" supers. If you support that and think it would lead to victory in the General, you're living in a fantasyland.

[jackson_dem]

46. That is why the popular vote is vital

Unless she wins the popular vote, including Florida, the supers will not be able to credibly give it to her. We would lose a large chunk of the AA vote for a generation if we did that. It will not happen. Let's count all the votes and see who winds up with the popular vote win. Right now it looks like she will knock about 160k off of Obama's 400k lead (incl FL)...

[MattNC]

55. "Unless she wins the popular vote"

which she clearly won't, barring a miracle.

[NJSecularist]

16. You make a very good argument, jackson.

Obama has a big problem with courting low-income, working class whites. A very big problem. It's a problem that could cost us the general election.

[Occam Bandage]

26. If you want to make that sort of claim,

then I can claim that Hillary Clinton will not be able to get high-income whites, blacks of any income, new converts, or young voters. It's a worthless argument.

[NJSecularist]

36. We have more of a chance of luring high-income whites to our coalition under Clinton

than we have of luring low-income whites to our coalition under Obama.

Most high-income whites are Republicans, anyways.

[Occam Bandage]

39. Which is why Obama consistently beats Clinton in head-to-head matchups against McCain?

Besides, if you want to talk about difficulty luring voters back, good luck getting any blacks to vote for Clinton this fall.

[NJSecularist]

40. National polls mean nothing in April. n/t

[Occam Bandage]

41. Except for defeating claims of unpopularity.

[jackson_dem]

48. Obama does 1-2 points better but worse in the electoral college

See my reply above to OB about this false hope Obamites cling to.

[NJSecularist]

49. It is a false hope.

Hillary is a better GE candidate. Obama does a point or two better in the GE, but Hillary is a better candidate in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.

[jackson_dem]

52. Right now--and that is because he doesn't lose as badly in red states

2004, 2000, 1988, and 1976 all showed that the "new" candidate always goes down during the campaign if not running against an incumbent president. In the last two cycles the "new" candidates lost 11 points from the spring to the GE. If Obama does this he will lose the GE by the same margin Carter--yes Carter--lost by in 1980...he should be trouncing McSame right now as the new candidate in a change year.

[jackson_dem]

47. We have to weight the two. Those groups shrink in the GE, hers grow

Both candidates are flawed, Clinton is stronger. They are even now but Clinton is stronger in the GE by default since her base grows.

[Occam Bandage]

58. Er, yeah. Except for the fact that GE polling shows the opposite trend you suggest.

[chascarrillo]

19. What do all Democrats do with a diminished affluent base?

And why do you assume that Clinton's affluent support wouldn't support the Democratic nominee?

[jackson_dem]

28. We win. Affluent folks vote rethug in the general

The more working folks the better for us. Even with Obama. He would carry working folks in the GE--just not by the margins necessary to win. Just like Michael Dukakis.

[Occam Bandage]

34. Then why does Obama outpoll Hillary in head-to-head matches against McCain?

[OzarkDem]

22. Obama's base is the $150K and higher crowd...

Interesting.

Same as George Bush's.

[blonndee]

27. Funny how Hillie is so much like Georgie in every way, huh?

Interesting, indeed.

[DemBones DemBones]

43. No, it's BHO who is like GWB, right down to the smirk.

He's a 47 year-old man running for president of the United States and giving his opponent the finger, plus doing the Jay-Z bit of brushing her off his shoulders. The video has gone viral.

Not many people want a gangsta president.

[blonndee]

53. Now, who's the neocon who wants to "obliterate" Iran, again?

[stillcool]

63. Don't forget these people!!

[SunsetDreams]

25. I'm happy you can count those numbers, unfortunately you seem to

not remember math when it comes to the elected delegates. She can't win.

Just because she wins a certain group now, doesn't mean he won't win them in the GE. She can't make that argument.

It's always been the elected delegates :)

[DemBones DemBones]

29. By running too soon, Obama has hurt chances for blacks for

years to come, maybe decades.

He should have gotten several years more experience, actually convened the subcommittee he chairs,learned to speak without a teleprompter.

He also should have started attending a different church before he ran for the Senate, and should stop playing Jay-Z and making the gestures for his crowd. He's going to lose votes over both those bad decisions. He acts like he's running for Student Council President, thinking he's so slick when he's really just a big hick.

[OzarkDem]

31. He can run in 2012

He'll have more experience by then.

[Occam Bandage]

37. Yep. Four years of Presidential experience, to be precise.

[Capn Sunshine]

50. Why isn't there a head exploding smiley when you need one?

:shrug:

[Justitia]

57. So, he should get his ass to the back of the bus? For your "girl" who's entitled to it?

Screw that.

[aquart]

61. Disagree. If he's the candidate, he's the president.

And we've elected slick schoolboys before.

We have food hoarding and $4 a gallon gas. The Republicans are dead meat. The turnout, even in the wealthy counties was pathetic for the Republicans. Their base hates their ticket and the independents don't want to know them.

The Democrat will win. The issue is which Dem will make the stupidest mistakes when given the ridiculous amount of power we've refused to challenge in our presidency.

I've seen Obama's testiness. I note that he is a MUCH BETTER LIAR than Clinton. She gets caught, he doesn't. I want the bad liar.

I want the person no one is going to bother using kid gloves with. Obama wields racism like a scalpel and he is a great plastic surgeon. People are scared to touch him, he makes such delicate, decisive cuts. Suddenly, people formerly loved look like monsters.

And I am ALARMED by messianic fervor of any kind. Obama's supporters make me feel ill. And afraid. Not something I like to feel.

So we may well be stuck with this man who believes his own press at the most crucial moment in our existence. Oh, goody.

[JasonHill]

33. These figures are confined within the party

against a candidate with an entrenched base loyal to the clinton brand. IMO This demographic will trend Dem in the general so it isn't a big issue

[jackson_dem]

51. These demographics shrink in the GE. That is the point

Obama's base shrinks. His popular vote lead in the primaries will be about 1% after tonight. The problem if with GE demographics he would be down by at least 15% because half of his black base, roughly half of his affluent Dem base evaporate in the general election as a percentage of the electorate.

[JasonHill]

54. I hear ya

what i'm saying is that the overall constituency of voters who primarily control the Dem Primary process, affluent or blue-collar, shrink and are rooted allies of the Dem Nominee, regardless of who it is, and that the general will be pushing forward to bring in independents especially now that many are actively disgruntled with Bush and open to shifting. Both Dems would be strong in the General and would have a strong turnout from the Dem base who are mobilized after 8 years of Bush, so i think to slice and dice Dem party subsets is looking at the wrong thing, imo, when judging the general.

[joshcryer]

60. This is the most alarming and scary fact in the race.

[jackson_dem]

64. Yup and the superdelegates have to be aware of this

[joshcryer]

59. Obama is the corporate elitist capitalist canidate.

Anyone who argues otherwise is an idiot.

[FrenchieCat]

62. So says an idiot.

[jackson_dem]

65. Does anyone know how he makes up roughly half of his Starbucks base vanishing in the GE?

YES WE CAN (win the GE with 45%)!?