Intrade markets: Before the PA vote: 82-15 for Obama.... after the vote: 82-17

[scheming daemons]

The people are not shifting their betting money to Clinton.

[Tiggeroshii]

1. a few people are going to be quite rich, yes?

[Selatius]

2. If Obama maintains the lead in Pledged Delegates through to convention, he will likely win.

Because I am not sure the Super Delegates would want to open a new can of worms by overturning the Pledged Delegates.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Bettors don't overreact day to day

Not in total. And that's what you get on Intrade, a consensus of theoretical likelihood.

Obama has been as high as 87/13 recently, before sliding a bit.

Some of these talking heads would be well served to open an Intrade or Tradesports account and dabble occasionally, actual risk in their spare time. Or just check the odds and note when/if they sway dramatically. They might gain more big picture focus and not the moment to moment garbage.

Posters on DU don't like to hear it but as a speculator I value the down the road opinions of Scarborough, Buchanon and Tucker, more than others I can name. For whatever reason the right wing TV pundits generally seize the application aspect, how the critical voting blocks will react to a candidate/issue, unlike lefty pundits who typically defend the cause at the expense of actual analysis.

And for those ripping Scarborough, tonight he called Obama and Hillary, "two incredibly gifted candidates."

[Hippo_Tron]

6. I didn't handicap the Democratic race at the beginning because I was emotionally invested

Whereas a I spent a good deal of time making predictions about the Republican race. Unfortunately I picked Mittens and turned out to be very very wrong. I based my assumption on the fact that the Republicans have picked the establishment backed candidate in pretty much every race in recent history. Romney just didn't have enough of the establishment behind him, though.

[sandnsea]

7. Maybe Bush made a side deal with McCain

He'd back him this year if McCain would help destroy Kerry. Makes sense to me.

[grantcart]

4. lol

[scheming daemons]

5. Kick..... to point out how little has changed because of PA....