The Numbers: Why I'm So Excited About Obama Tonight

[writes3000]

Yep, Hillary Clinton won PA. Even though it was expected, congrats to her and her supporters.

I'm feeling pretty damn great about Obama's performance today and here's why:

Look at Obama's numbers. He's got 45 - 46% of the vote.

In Pennsylvania.

Running against Hillary AND Bill Clinton. Yes, he's ran against the both of them.

In a state that is well known to have some deep, deep pro-white sentiment in its blood. (I went to college in PA and let me tell you, the KKK has a home in the middle of that state.)

So big picture, here. What is the message the Superdelegates will take away from this?

The take away is this: Obama is very competitive in this state. And it's a state where the Dem party controls the machine. Can Obama do 7 or 8 points better when he's running against McCain? Hell, yes! In fact, he may even be able to do 10 points better.

I believe the Superdelegates aren't looking at Clinton's PA numbers tonight. They are looking at Obama's. And Obama's overall numbers are pretty good.

To make a better case to the SDs, Hillary Clinton had to keep Obama under 40%. That would be an alarm bell regarding his electibility.

While a win in PA would have been amazing, ultimately, this was a strong, important showing for Obama.

The Superdelegates are not going to take the nomination from him now. Barack Obama will be our nominee.

I'm grateful and thrilled.

[Beregond2]

1. Ding ding ding,

ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner! This is the reality.

[movonne]

17. I agree with you but how bloody is this thing going to get..

[ClassWarrior]

19. All we can do is keep on keepin' on.

Never Give Up!

[lisa58]

2. the entire state machine was against him....

...he is a brave man.

[Indiana_Dem]

14. the entire state machine will be against him in Indiana, too, I'm afraid--

I've sensed it ever since Bill & Hillary have been crisscrossing our state since March. The O campaign is going to have to work VERY hard. I'm really feeling down about what I hear around me. Obama gave me tears tonight.

[madrchsod]

24. the only counties obama lost in 2004 were the counties bordering

Indiana...he won the republican northern counties by thousands of votes over keyes while kerry lost by thousands to bush. unless the cities go to obama he`ll lose your state...

[kid a]

3. One of the best posts tonight. K & R

[GetTheRightVote]

4. just watched a video with details of delegates, she can not catch Obama now

hurray !!!

[gabeana]

5. It looks like all Hillary will get is +12 in delegates n/t

[crispini]

6. Right on!

:kick:

[ClassWarrior]

7. Amen. Hilly lost by a good 10 points tonight.

NGU.

[cottonseed]

18. That's a good way of putting it.

I can't think of one state where she's held on to or increased a starting lead.

[FrenchieCat]

8. I agree.....

The Moderators set him up along with the "bitter" comment leak.

And after Wright and Terror commercials, and Obama did more or less as he predicted.

You are right, he's earned the nomination at this point.

But will someone tell the Hillary Teri Schiavo Campaign this? :shrug:

[gabeana]

9. It looks like all Hillary will get is +12 in delegates n/t

[TwilightGardener]

10. I fully agree. I am from PA, I know it to be subtly racist, and it's also

VERY elderly--people there do NOT like change, or new things. They like same old same old familiar, and they don't mind corruption in politicians as long as it's not TOO egregious--perfect state for Hillary, and yet he STILL did reasonably well. The SD's will not flee because of tonight, and whenever Obama loses on one night, he usually wins the next time around. I am convinced he will be the nominee, we just have to wait for it to play out, unfortunately.

[writes3000]

23. Yeah, you describe PA perfectly. Perfectly.

Obama will be the nominee.

Strangely, I think tonight sealed it for me.

[phrigndumass]

11. You can't turn away a candidate with a million votes in Pennsylvania, I agree!

Especially when he's ahead in every way.

:hi:

[kid a]

33. awesome outcome for Obama!

[gsaguyCLW54]

12. I just want these two to act like Democrats

[grantcart]

13. With the additional 68 pledged delegates Obama is now only 143 delegates

away to securing the majority of pledged delegates and the additional endorsements of super delegates who have said that they will endorse the nominee with the most pledged delegates, including Clinton super delegates.

[writes3000]

21. Grant, your posts really helped me keep the big picture perspective.

Tonight's race was about HIM not her.

And he did well for himself. Not a slam dunk but he made a strong case that he's popular in this state.

[Blue_Roses]

15. Great post !!!!

and I concur:D

[my3boyz]

16. I'm actually very satisfied with the result too (totally shocked to admit that). LOL I'm also

soooooooooooooooooooooooo happy that PA is behind us now. Now I don't have to worry about what if when thinking about the demographics of PA. Obama has several good states coming up for him. He will blow her out of those states with huge wins. Then she will win her Kentucky and West Virginia. Indiana will be close. I actually thought I would avoid the boards tonight (as I normally do on primary days) but I feel fine about it so I'm posting all over the place. LOL I will not listen to the media spin though. Once they come back to reality (that nothing has really change and a really big state is off the board) I will tune in again.

[bigbrother05]

20. Think Ed Rendell probably added 8-12% to HRC's total

PA is a machine state and he's already said he'll work just as hard for the Dem nominee regardless.

With that kind of backing along with from the party in PA, that's a state that should swing blue in Nov. Still can't buy the idea that Obama can't win the big states in the Clinton column. The party is much stronger than in recent memory.

[forintegrity]

22. Obama actually ran against Repukes, not Hill and Bill!

Hill and Bill can no longer be considered Democrats! They've played from the GOP book too many times now. Traitors. Nothing but traitors.

[Scurrilous]

25. K & R

:thumbsup:

[aaronbees]

26. That is indeed encouraging news down the road

if he gains the nomination. Forgive me for being pretty damn down tonight though.

[writes3000]

27. Money, New Voters, Youth Voters and The Black Vote - The Party won't throw away those.

[aaronbees]

31. Oh, yes they will

.... because some of them will stick around like oldtime Dems. But by and large the same message of the party won't change. Time and time again the Democratic party machine has shown it can pay lip service to growth and populism. I fear it's tempted to do the same thing this cycle. Catch me tomorrow and I may feel better.

[kid a]

28. K

[Zhade]

29. He's on his way to being the nominee, and clinton won't catch up.

I call that a good night!

[FedoraLV]

30. OP, a good reminder /nt

[FrenchieCat]

32. think it is coming down to single digits......

CLINTON, HILLARY 54.3%
OBAMA, BARACK 45.7%


8.6% difference.

Not double digits.

[RememberWellstone]

34. He lost.

He lost big. I am grateful too.

[Tarheel_Dem]

35. Meet me in NC on May 6th.....

This race has been over for months, and why the party elders have tolerated Hillary is beyond me. No other candidate would have been allowed this much latitude.

[loyalsister]

36. I have a sneaking suspicion the "tide"

is actually "pooling." Something is happening. I found their speeches to be interesting. Sen. Clinton seemed to be adopting shades Obama's themes.
Sen. Clinton mentioned founding documents, and the grassroots activists who earned civil rights for many of us. I was very surprised to hear that. Then she was connecting to her family. It was fascinating.
I found that to be curious. I have heard those kinds of undertones or maybe "undertows" of outreach in speeches following primaries in the past.
I wonder if I am reading too much into it, or if she is trying to calm this primary down. I would so appreciate such and effort. It would also be nice if she was trying to make sure that her voters would vote for Obama.
I wonder if rather than a unity ticket, we will see a convention where Hillary and Bill Clinton nominate Barrack Obama to be the Democratic nominee. Thus maintaining their key position in the party.
Thoughts?

[writes3000]

37. I don't think the party will want to wait until August for a nominee.

It is too big of a risk and the Clintons have shown that they will go for broke to win.

I think the Superdelegates will have to make decisions in May.

But the party will become unified around Obama. The Clintons will have to cave and endorse him before the convention.

I'd love to believe that tonight's speech was a sign of better behavior but I think most likely it's only temporary. She knows most people won't pay attention to her day to day behavior when it turns nasty again.

[loyalsister]

38. Good points

I am pretty sure I am just grasping at straws trying to find and maintain hope and optimism anyway I can this has really become a depressing primary.
Reading your analysis, now I am thinking that maybe the story goes if\when the superdelegates do endorse, the Clintons will have to come out with a powerful convincing endorsement.
In order for that to come off as genuine, they have to begin to let some of Obama's message creep into their own.

I can't wait til it this over!

[TragedyandHope]

39. I was also very happy to see the results tonight

Sure, a win would have been better, but this was just about as good. Obama sidestepped a Clinton "blowout" and showed that his message really connects with a lot more voters than many thought possible. Not to mention that he has weathered a firestorm of Rovian slime with dignity.

He's ready. He's our candidate and he will be our next President of the United States!