JackBeck
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Tue Apr-22-08 11:54 PM
Original message |
With 98.4% reporting at the Penn. Department of State website: |
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Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 11:57 PM by JackBeck
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM) 1,027,315 45.7% CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM) 1,222,919 54.3% 8.6% difference. Not double digits. Edit for link: http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1
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thewiseguy
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Tue Apr-22-08 11:56 PM
Response to Original message |
1. That's odd. His totals on that site are more than his totals on CNN... |
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Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 11:56 PM by thewiseguy
Can you put a link in your OP?
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rug
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Tue Apr-22-08 11:56 PM
Response to Original message |
2. Is double digits a fetish we must worship? |
thewiseguy
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Tue Apr-22-08 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
4. Ask the Hillary supporters. |
rug
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:00 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
11. It's Obama supporters who set that bar. She won. Handily. |
Guaranteed
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:03 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
17. The bar is 2025. She can not hit it, not with these numbers. |
rug
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:12 AM
Response to Reply #17 |
DUyellow
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:04 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
18. You are so right... Wolfons: "This is a delegate race" |
Gore1FL
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:04 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
19. Actually it is the big money donations that set that bar |
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The math set the bar much higher.
She actually has to win the rest of the contests by 69% and get 50% of the remaining delegates to win. The biggest remaining state has trailing considerably, and she has no cash to counter it.
This is more done now than it was after WI, and it was done then.
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Hugabear
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:09 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
31. Actually, I think mathematics set the bar |
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As someone in another thread pointed out, Hillary would need to win by 34% in each of the remaining primaries to overtake Obama's lead.
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rug
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:13 AM
Response to Reply #31 |
40. What percentage does Obama need to win without supers? |
Zhade
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:11 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
36. Keep dreaming, Obama will be the nominee when you wake up. |
rug
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:14 AM
Response to Reply #36 |
42. I'm not Rip van Winkle. |
JackBeck
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Tue Apr-22-08 11:58 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
6. We're not constantly re-defining the end game. |
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Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 11:58 PM by JackBeck
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Cant trust em
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Tue Apr-22-08 11:58 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
7. I think it's a symbolic hurdle |
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Somehow its a psychological dividing line between what is significant and less so. Even when I spend money, $10 is like a threshold of what I'm willing to buy on a whim and what I'll think first if I really want it.
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DUyellow
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:06 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
HCE SuiGeneris
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:09 AM
Response to Reply #2 |
32. Did you say double digits? |
MadBadger
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Tue Apr-22-08 11:57 PM
Response to Original message |
3. Hmmm, thats different than CNN |
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They see it as 1.239 million to his 1.023 million
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Lucinda
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:00 AM
Response to Reply #3 |
12. MSNBC has the same numbers CNN does |
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The state page may not be updating overnight?
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MadBadger
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:03 AM
Response to Reply #12 |
15. Thats not it. The numbers are fundamentally different |
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THe state site has more votes for Obama.
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Lucinda
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:13 AM
Response to Reply #15 |
41. Their site shows a different set of numbers on one of their other linked pages. |
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http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=12&ElectionID=27 CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM) 1,231,557 54.3% OBAMA, BARACK (DEM) 1,038,242 45.7% http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1 CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM) 1,231,814 54.3% OBAMA, BARACK (DEM) 1,038,373 45.7% It's most likely just a clerical error. Their site was down earlier tonight too.
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rodeodance
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:04 AM
Response to Reply #3 |
21. you prediced obama would win by a half % I recall. |
MadBadger
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:06 AM
Response to Reply #21 |
26. And I was wrong...so shoot me. |
JackBeck
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #21 |
51. Explain to all of us how Hillary can win? |
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Seriously, in your opinion, how can Mrs. Rodham-Clinton secure the Democratic nomination?
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Hepburn
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Tue Apr-22-08 11:57 PM
Response to Original message |
5. Wow...what a loss for HilLIARy....from a 20 pt lead to this. |
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She is just such a loser.
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BzaDem
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Tue Apr-22-08 11:59 PM
Response to Reply #5 |
9. At least she didn't actually lose. |
Gore1FL
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:06 AM
Response to Reply #9 |
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She gpot less than she needed to win in all the remaining contests in her most supportive state,
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Hepburn
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Wed Apr-23-08 01:19 AM
Response to Reply #9 |
79. Depends on how you look at it... |
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...Obama out-foxed her and got her to spend a hell of a lot of money in a state she was going to win anyhow. LOL...like I said, she lost.
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dugggy
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:05 AM
Response to Reply #5 |
22. Hillary now has NEW MOmentum |
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This win means we go all the way to the convention floor. There the super delegates will put her over the bar.
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tokenlib
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:08 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
30. Yeah, SD's want the party to implode... |
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But if you think the SD's can do that and we'll all live happily ever after...good luck...
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Zhade
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:13 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
39. HAHAHAHAHA!!! Oh, the wishful thinking is cute. |
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But pointless.
She won't be the nom.
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Hepburn
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Wed Apr-23-08 01:20 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
80. What have you been smoking? |
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The SDs have been breaking for Obama...:rofl:
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Coexist
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Tue Apr-22-08 11:58 PM
Response to Original message |
8. but they won't change it - why? |
TheDoorbellRang
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Tue Apr-22-08 11:59 PM
Response to Original message |
10. CNN's numbers are higher for Clinton and lower for Obama. hmmm |
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With 99% reporting:
Clinton 1,239,424 55%
Obama 1,023,350 45%
I had just noticed this oddity, myself.
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JackBeck
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:03 AM
Response to Reply #10 |
16. If Clinton camp wants to be specific about single and double digit leads, |
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I think we need to accurately look at the real figures, instead of rounding up, like CNN.
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kevinbgoode
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:23 AM
Response to Reply #10 |
54. CNN apparently doesn't know how to do round numbers |
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Apparently they don't hire kindergarten graduates.
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TheDoorbellRang
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #54 |
58. Usually the differences are proportional, tho |
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Here's CNN at 12:26
Clinton 1,249,577 55% Obama 1,034,686 45%
Here's the state's total:
CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM) 1,232,042 54.3% OBAMA, BARACK (DEM) 1,038,480 45.7%
How can they be higher for one and lower for the other?
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rocktivity
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:01 AM
Response to Original message |
13. 31 plus-point winning margin = blowout for Hillary |
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Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 12:03 AM by rocknation
30 points = victory for Hillary
10 - 29 points = wash for Hillary
6 - 9 points = humiliation for Hillary
1 - 5 points = the end for Hillary
:headbang: rocknation
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Cant trust em
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:07 AM
Response to Reply #13 |
28. I would have made 6-9 = bad for Hillary |
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the end and humiliation are the same thing.
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jgraz
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:07 AM
Response to Reply #13 |
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It's not possible to humiliate someone who has no shame.
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Cant trust em
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Wed Apr-23-08 01:10 AM
Response to Reply #29 |
72. That was a good one. NT |
FunkyLeprechaun
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:14 AM
Response to Reply #13 |
43. I said to my mum that if she got less than 10% |
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In a state that had favoured her nearly 30% a month ago, she should think about dropping out. Yes she won, but won by only 8? Obama looks to cancel her win out in NC and even in Indiana.
She has no money and she's resorted to begging tactics.
Obama might even beat her in Delegates once again in Penn., when the final results are certified. Happened in NH, happened in TX, etc.
If I were a Clinton supporter, I wouldn't gloat at these numbers.
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Guaranteed
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:03 AM
Response to Original message |
14. No, cuz you round Barack's down, Clinton's up, |
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and then you add on 5 points to Clinton's total.
That's a 15-point win!
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SoCalDem
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:05 AM
Response to Reply #14 |
24. And when the numbers come in from Neptune, she'll be at 117% |
Swamp Rat
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:10 AM
Response to Reply #24 |
guruoo
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:04 AM
Response to Original message |
20. Obamas trashtalkers claimed landslide was in the works. |
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Maybie next time. good night.
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Cant trust em
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:05 AM
Response to Reply #20 |
23. Some were. This came out better than I predicted actually. |
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I figured it would be 12.
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Zhade
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #20 |
45. Yeah, they were as accurate as those who said clinton would clinch it on ST. |
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Her narrow win was expected.
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JackBeck
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:17 AM
Response to Reply #20 |
49. There are notorious trashtalkers on both sides |
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Especially among those who think they are above it, yet have consistently slummed day after day in creating manufactured drama just for the attention.
Thankfully many of us would rather not associate with them or feed their delusions of grandeur. The facts of this race are on our side and the majority want it to be over soon.
But you're right. A landslide was predicted many months ago and it didn't happen. Mrs. Rodham-Clinton lost a major battle tonight and will continue to lose. What sucks for her is that her campaign is millions of dollars in debt. Maybe she can lend herself another 5 mil. to ease the blow.
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guruoo
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Wed Apr-23-08 08:14 PM
Response to Reply #49 |
betharina
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:10 AM
Response to Original message |
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Democratic Primary votes: 2,269,799 Republican Primary votes: 773,811
or does that not matter anymore?:shrug:
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HCE SuiGeneris
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:12 AM
Response to Reply #34 |
38. They are excellent numbers. |
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And a belated welcome to DU! :hi:
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betharina
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:17 AM
Response to Reply #38 |
SoCalDem
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:16 AM
Response to Reply #34 |
47. we won't know until Nov |
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many of "ours" could be turned OFF.. and most of Mccain's this time were uninspired..habit voters..
By Nov, the republicans will have a bigger turn out..adn if we "lose" 1/2 of ours..who knows:shrug:
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4themind
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:40 AM
Response to Reply #34 |
63. It matters a little less now, then earlier, because McCain's clinched it |
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although in the earlier states this trend was similar as well, which bodes well for democrats provided we can unite at the end.
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bigbrother05
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:11 AM
Response to Original message |
35. Thanks for posting, been watching it all night |
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Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 12:12 AM by bigbrother05
Think I trust the Sec'y of State over the MSM, they are the ones that will put out the final numbers. It's another instance where they put out numbers that will be in the headlines that won't be corrected until much later, ala TX. A victory of less than 9% is not as much to crow about, symbolic to be sure, but less than advertised.
PA SoS 98.80% in CNN Now 99%
1,230,822 54.3% 1,248,699 55% Clinton 1,037,420 45.7% 1,034,383 45% Obama
still 8.6% 10%
Pretty interesting
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JackBeck
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:20 AM
Response to Reply #35 |
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I just can't trust the MSM, so I follow online.
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RememberWellstone
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:15 AM
Response to Original message |
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Quit trying to downplay the obvious.
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Zhade
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:16 AM
Response to Reply #44 |
46. And yet will still not be the nominee. |
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Enjoy the temporary victory!
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kevinbgoode
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:22 AM
Response to Original message |
52. Not many voting in the Republican primary |
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Weren't there any other offices or races on their side?
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Coexist
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:23 AM
Response to Original message |
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and from a diarist at kos:
40 of the 111 outstanding districts (0 / 0) are in Philly. Another 19 are in Chester. Both areas are Obama territory.
I feel pretty comfortable saying this thing is 8 points
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bobbert
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:25 AM
Response to Reply #53 |
Patsy Stone
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:26 AM
Response to Reply #53 |
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Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 12:26 AM by Patsy Stone
is all it takes for an 8 no one can deny. :)
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Coexist
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:29 AM
Response to Reply #56 |
57. that would be sweet - even though it would make my 9 prediction wrong |
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but I will happily take it!
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Patsy Stone
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:33 AM
Response to Reply #57 |
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I said 6, so I was really wrong. :)
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Coexist
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:38 AM
Response to Reply #59 |
61. latest update only has her up 10 delegates! |
Patsy Stone
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:46 AM
Response to Reply #61 |
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Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 12:50 AM by Patsy Stone
193,562 vote difference now according to PA, and this diary was based on a 214,510 vote difference (20,948 more) in calculating total percentage. I'm not sure, but I don't think the 10 delegate difference in the updated diary accounted for the state assigned delegates based on total vote percentages (55 total). 35 "at-large" delegates and 20 PLEOs.
So, it might be less than 10 when all is said and done.
ed: it's possible I misread the diary, because it's late and I need to go to bed.
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Coexist
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:52 AM
Response to Reply #65 |
67. I tried to go to bed, |
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but hubby was snoring terribly, so I came back out to wait until I am exhausted!
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Patsy Stone
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:55 AM
Response to Reply #67 |
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I just heard that very noise coming from the other room as I wrote that last post, and I wondered if I should go in there or not. Then it stopped. I'm going in, but I think I'll check to see if he's still breathing. :)
Good night.
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jbardin
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:38 AM
Response to Original message |
60. discrepancy is lancaster county |
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according to state website: Obama 40628, Clinton 22710 according to CNN: Obama 27126, Clinton 22710
13,000 votes increases his percentage to 45.6% from 45.2%. Who knows which is correct.
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thewiseguy
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:42 AM
Response to Reply #60 |
Patsy Stone
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:48 AM
Response to Reply #60 |
Coexist
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:53 AM
Response to Reply #60 |
jbardin
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Wed Apr-23-08 01:14 AM
Response to Reply #60 |
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lancaster county's site is consistent with CNN. available at http://www.co.lancaster.pa.us/lanco/cwp/view.asp?a=564&q=411897&lancoNav=|&lancoNav_GID=1004 Candidate Votes Barack Obama 27126 Hillary Clinton 22710 Write-In 0 by District 49836
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DerekJ
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Wed Apr-23-08 02:26 AM
Response to Reply #77 |
83. I agree. The county website has a full breakdown by district. It will be hard to mess that up with |
Eurobabe
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Wed Apr-23-08 01:15 AM
Response to Reply #60 |
78. Wow, who knew there were so many SMART people |
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in Lancaster Co.!
Hi from another smart county - Chester. Obama 55 - Cliton 44
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DerekJ
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Wed Apr-23-08 02:19 AM
Response to Reply #60 |
82. Jbardin, A big welcome to DU. Thanks for finding it, I was going to go county by county to find |
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the discrepancy. You saved me ton of work.
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JackBeck
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:40 AM
Response to Original message |
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Once again...not "double digits".
Look, we weren't the ones to place and then move the goal posts. Y'all did.
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FlyingSquirrel
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:56 AM
Response to Original message |
70. CNN sez 1,249,936 to 1,035,230 -- 54.7% to 45.3% (9.4% difference) |
Guaranteed
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Wed Apr-23-08 01:12 AM
Response to Reply #70 |
74. Which still would not be double-digits. nt |
MadBadger
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Wed Apr-23-08 01:09 AM
Response to Original message |
71. I believe the CNN numbers are right |
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The state numbers from PA overreport Lancaster County. They say there are a total of 63,000 democratic votes while CNN says its closer to 49,000. Considering there are roughly 80,000 dems in the county itself, I would have to say that the 49,000 number is more in line with the PA turnout.
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JackBeck
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Wed Apr-23-08 01:11 AM
Response to Original message |
73. Something that's comforting |
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Over 2 million voted for a Democratic candidate, while roughly 750 thousand voted for a Repug in Penn.
Notice a trend?
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Eurobabe
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Wed Apr-23-08 01:12 AM
Response to Original message |
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I say it will narrow further, but the media is all over this like a cheap suit.
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mystieus
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Wed Apr-23-08 01:12 AM
Response to Original message |
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they are rounding before subtracting.. which is an odd way of doing it. the real difference is ~9% (9.4 exactly), but the way the media does it its ~10% . though, its the way they've always done it.. oh well.
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johnnydrama
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Wed Apr-23-08 01:49 AM
Response to Original message |
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a 14 pt win in NC would equal her PA delegate count.
And about a 16 pt win would equal her in voting totals.
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kmsarvis
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Wed Apr-23-08 02:35 AM
Response to Reply #81 |
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And I'm going door to door the next two weekends to help make sure Obama gets that 16+ point victory.
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Wed Apr-23-08 02:59 AM
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