Popular vote update after Clinton gains over 210,000 votes. Margin down to less than 1%

[jackson_dem]

The popular vote with FL should be the real target. She can win that and while Obama killed a re-vote in Florida and will probably disenfranchise the state at the convention the superdelegates cannot ignore the voices of 1.7 million people in one of the highest turnout states thus far. If she wins the popular vote and wins most of the remaining states the superdelegates will have all they need to select the most electable candidate. The candidate who ends with momentum will be leading in opinion polls by June. You can't argue the "will of the people has been overturned" when you lost the popular vote and are down 10 in every national poll.

Popular Vote 49.3 - 47.4 Obama +1.9

Popular Vote (w/FL)48.3 - 47.5 Obama +0.8


Popular Vote Total14,361,47349.2%13,858,18447.5% Obama +503,289+1.7%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 14,695,55749.3%14,082,04647.2% Obama +613,511+2.1%

Popular Vote (w/FL)14,937,68748.3%14,729,17047.6% Obama +208,517+0.7%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 15,271,77148.4%14,953,03247.4% Obama +318,739+1.0%

Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)**14,937,68747.4%15,057,47947.8% Clinton +119,792+0.4%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 15,271,77147.5%15,281,34147.5% Obama +110,222+0.3%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html>RCP

How Clinton can win the popular vote

Calculate your own scenario. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html

NC: Obama will get 85-91% of the black vote again. Let's give him 89%, which is what he ultimately got in PA. The x factor for the margin of victory is the white vote. We know the black vote has been consistent in all 43 states. Obama is unlikely to win the white vote but the question is how bad will he lose it? Will it be 21% like in MS or can he reach the 40's? We will have to see what the polls show. Let's give him 38% for the sake of argument since that is what he got on Pennsylvania. Plug these numbers in and estimate the AA vote is 1/3 of the electorate and Obama wins 55-45. Obama gains 125k

IN: Let's give Clinton a 10 point win there in Obama's neighboring state. +80k for Clinton

WV: This should be a blowout. It is almost all white and very working class. Obama got slaughtered among such voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio. She leads there 58-29 right now. Give Clinton a 30 point win. +94k for Clinton

KY: The same as WV except to a lesser degree. Let's give her 25 points in KY (she is up 36 in the latest KY poll with Obama barely registering at 26%). +112k for Clinton

OR: This is a wild card. Obama is up 10 there right now. Let's assume Clinton's momentum after today and 5/6, 5/13 cuts that down to 5. Then let's also factor in that Obama purchases another 10 points. Give Obama a 15 point win. +89k for Obama

PR: The biggest wild card of all because we don't know what turnout will be. 1 million is a conservative estimate. Let's give Clinton a 15 point win here. +150k for Clinton

MT/SD: Both are wild cards. We have only one poll since voting began between these two states. It has Obama up 10 in South Dakota. We can assume a similar margin in Montana. This should be cut down due to Clinton's momentum. Keep in mind these are primaries so Obama can't win based on 1.9% turnout. Still let's give Obama 10 point wins in both states. Obama gains 23k combining MT/SD

Net gain: 409k

YES SHE CAN!

[scheming daemons]

1. And NC will return it back to where it was this morning.... your point?

[Seen the light]

2. And, uh, where will she make those 200,000 votes up from?

Remember...North Carolina still to come. :D

[jackson_dem]

20. Here is how

Calculate your own scenario. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html

NC: Obama will get 85-91% of the black vote again. Let's give him 89%, which is what he ultimately got in PA. The x factor for the margin of victory is the white vote. We know the black vote has been consistent in all 43 states. Obama is unlikely to win the white vote but the question is how bad will he lose it? Will it be 21% like in MS or can he reach the 40's? We will have to see what the polls show. Let's give him 38% for the sake of argument since that is what he got on Pennsylvania. Plug these numbers in and estimate the AA vote is 1/3 of the electorate and Obama wins 55-45. Obama gains 125k

IN: Let's give Clinton a 10 point win there in Obama's neighboring state. +80k for Clinton

WV: This should be a blowout. It is almost all white and very working class. Obama got slaughtered among such voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio. She leads there 58-29 right now. Give Clinton a 30 point win. +94k for Clinton

KY: The same as WV except to a lesser degree. Let's give her 25 points in KY (she is up 36 in the latest KY poll with Obama barely registering at 26%). +112k for Clinton

OR: This is a wild card. Obama is up 10 there right now. Let's assume Clinton's momentum after today and 5/6, 5/13 cuts that down to 5. Then let's also factor in that Obama purchases another 10 points. Give Obama a 15 point win. +89k for Obama

PR: The biggest wild card of all because we don't know what turnout will be. 1 million is a conservative estimate. Let's give Clinton a 15 point win here. +150k for Clinton

MT/SD: Both are wild cards. We have only one poll since voting began between these two states. It has Obama up 10 in South Dakota. We can assume a similar margin in Montana. This should be cut down due to Clinton's momentum. Keep in mind these are primaries so Obama can't win based on 1.9% turnout. Still let's give Obama 10 point wins in both states. Obama gains 23k combining MT/SD

Net gain: 409k

YES SHE CAN!

[Seen the light]

28. My rebuttal

1. You can't count Puerto Rico in this in good faith. Delegates yes, popular vote of Puerto Rico no. Same goes for the US Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa, and anyone else I'm forgetting. Just my opinion. Remember, despite being an Obama supporter, I'm actually sympathetic to the popular vote cause. Just don't count Puerto Rico in it.

2. You're REALLY reaching in Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky. Senator Clinton could *barely* pull out a 10 point win in a state much favorable to her than Indiana is. What makes you think she could possibly do better in Indiana than in Pennsylvania? And you're being generous in WV and KY to the point of being ridiculous in my opinion. Also, I think you're underestimating what Senator Obama's victory in NC is going to be.

[kwenu]

73. She doesn't have a 10 point win in Pennsylvania as of this writing. The newsheads are WRONG!!!

PA SOS says 8.6%.

[jackson_dem]

112. I gave a scenario, not a scientific prediction. Let's count the votes and see what happens

So far she did what she needed to do by netting over 200,000 votes in Pennsylvania...

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

40. you mis-state: "Obama killed a re-vote in Florida " NO, THE LEGISLATURE KILLED IT

Another Hillary lie.

[jackson_dem]

107. Obama's cronies in the legislature did on his behalf

[karynnj]

140. Obama's cronies in the state of Fl?????

ummm NO.

[ingac70]

3. Adding Florida and MI is cheating. n/t

[rug]

6. You must have been fun to play jacks with.

[Zhade]

38. More fun than playing with cheaters, I'd wager.

NT!

[jackson_dem]

9. I don't believe MI will count but the fact is Obama killed the re-vote there

So the will of Michigan morally should not be totally ignored, although it has no shot at being seated or being counted in the popular vote.

[yurbud]

15. this Michigan & Florida thing is an epic fuck up that could cost the general election

The Democratic Party created the problem and Hillary made it worse by ignoring the agreement.

[MercutioATC]

22. I disagree. The Dem legislators in MI and FL created the problem.

The DNC just refused to be bullied.

...and this entire problem could be solved if we did simultaneous primaries in every state on the same day.

...just food for thought.

[jackson_dem]

24. The DNC blew it. The RNC found a compromise to punish FL and MI but give them a voice

If Obama is the nominee do you think McSame won't remind voters in Michigan what role he played in disenfranchising them? He certainly would do the same in Florida as well but Obama is a joke in Florida so it would be moot there.

[MercutioATC]

27. The RNC found a compromise for the Democratic primary?

Did you really just say that?

[BzaDem]

34. The RNC found a compromise for its own primary. They seated half of their RNC delegates from FL/MI.

[jackson_dem]

49. Obamites pretend that never happened. They want to pretend a reasonable solution isn't possible

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

53. WELL FOR SURE HILLARY WOULD RUN WELL AS A REPUBLICAN

SHE LIKES THEIR RULES, THEIR NEWS PAPERS, AND THEIR TACTICS.

BUT SHE DOESN'T LIKE THE DEMOCRATIC RULES, VALUES, MEDIA OR ACTIVISTS.

[jackson_dem]

57. This coming from someone who agrees with Jeb Bush that votes should not be counted

You have to have the most ironic name ever...

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

65. SNIPER FIRE CONFUSE YOU? FL AND MI OPPOSED REVOTE

BUT LIKE HILLARY, YOU DON'T WORRY ABOUT THE TRUTH.

[jackson_dem]

74. Yes, you do realize Obama has cronies in the legislatures in both states, wright?

[BalancedGoat]

87. And Clinton doesn't? n/t

[SwampG8r]

105. see it throws the poo

and the word wright appears on its cage
just a coincidence im sure

[MercutioATC]

70. So what "solution" would you propose?

Dean already gave MI and FL the option of obeying the rules and holding a primary after their scheduled dates. They declined.

FL, in particular, openly mocked the DNC rules. Do you believe that such behavior should be encouraged by granting ANY kind of special treatment? They had their opportunity to hold another primary and opted not to. If we seat the FL and MI delegates, what incentive would ANY state have to obey the rules?

If your "solution" is a 50/50 split of delegates, that does absolutely nothing to represent the will of the people. If it's seating half of their delegates, it's a compromise that I think is both unnecessary and harmful to the party but from a strategic standpoint, it won't get you anywhere near what Clinton needs to win...so what's the point?

[jackson_dem]

72. Seat them, but reduce their delegation size by 50%. It worked for the rethugs, didn't it?

What is your "solution"? Telling 10% of the nation's Democrats to fuck off? Yeah, we can win the general after doing this to them. Another fairy tale...

[MercutioATC]

78. Are we taking cues from Repubs now?

Approach this from the position of a parent...a necessarily strict parent who loves their child.

If you specifically tell the child that something is prohibited and that child does it anyway...and laughs at you while they do it, are you a better parent if you give them half a reward or deny any reward at all?

Like it or not, the DNC is the "parent". You may not agree with the rules, but the time to protest them is long past...those are the rules we're working with.

Florida Dem legislators voted to break the rules and then (it's on video) mocked the DNC. How does this responsibly warrant a "half-reward"?

[jackson_dem]

80. This isn't a football game where the penalty must be enforced

We have the highest of stakes and to probably cede 44 electoral votes because the DNC blew it is ludicrous.

The future? Let states vote when they want. Iowa and New Hampshire have dictated to the nation long enough.

[MercutioATC]

89. I completely agree about Iowa and NH.

However, we have rules. MI and FL actively chose to break those rules. FL actually mocked them.

I ask again...even if 50% of Florida's delegates were seated, it wouldn't do squat for Clinton. From a Clinton vs Obama standpoint, where's the motivation to get FL seated?

[jackson_dem]

94. This is about the GE not Clinton vs. Obama

Why risk losing the election because the DNC made a foolish mistake?

[MercutioATC]

111. We need to properly frame the issue. FL and MI made the "foolish mistake".

That said, Fl is going to McCain anyway. It's a sad truth, but old white people do not, as a demographic, vote for a young black guy...especially when they're given the alternative of an old white guy.

I'm not calling FL residents racist, I'm stating demographic facts. As a rule, the above analysis is accurate.


Especially in light of the facts that the GE is an all-or-nothing count and FL is hardly a strong blue state, why should we sacrifice Democratic party ethics to placate a state that thumbed its nose at the party?

[SwampG8r]

you outta state numbskulls

always think you know our business better than us
you are what ruins florida
our state party lost our seats
they laughed while they did it
decent candidates didnt campaign here or hold fundraisers the day before the vote
they knew they would be punished and because they wanted to make our primary a tourist attraction they did it anyways
most of us down here dont have any problem with the punishment
our carreer pols are a bunch of dlc lickspittles who deserve disenfranchisment
so the loss of floridas SD faction is im sure a real issue with a long time bootsucker for the dlc like hillary
but for us
here in the sunshine state
we aint that worked up
what did we lose?thats a party function the real action is the GE and we have not lost one florida vote in the GE

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

51. CLINTON ADVISOR ICKES ON DNC, VOTED FOR RULES AND SANCTIONS

DO YOU DO ANYTHING BUT POST FLAME THREADS? READ THE OPS ABOUT FLORIDA
OR IS THE TRUTH TOO BOTHERSOME?

[jackson_dem]

54. And? Ooohh... YourVoteShouldNotBeCounted throws the Ickes name out there

Who cares how Ickes voted?

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

60. YOU HAVE LIED AND BLAMED OTHERS INSTEAD OF HILLARY'S OWN ADVISOR WHO VOTED FOR THIS

I WILL REBUT YOUR LIES EACH AND EVERY ONE IF I HAVE TOO.

AT LEAST I WILL REBUT ENOUGH OF YOUR LIES SO THAT PEOPLE WILL START
FACT CHECKING YOU THEMSELVES.

[yurbud]

139. ALL at once would make it hard for those without a lot of money to break out.

Someone proposed cascading primaries, in several rounds with progressively more states in each round, so the later primaries could still have an impact. Then you could rotate who is early in the process and who is late every election cycle.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

42. NO YOU ARE LYING. TWICE SO FAR: THE LEGISLATURES KILLED IT

[jackson_dem]

52. LOL! "Willyourbevotescounted" arguing for not counting votes

It was Obama's lawyers and cronies in the legislatures that killed the re-votes and everybody knows it, even if the "netroots" is in denial.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

61. "FLORIDA DEMOCRATS SCRAPPED PLANS TO REDO STATE'S PRES PRIMARY"

LIE YOUR WAY OUT OF THIS:

No primary do-over in Florida

Florida Democrats scrapped plans Monday to redo the state's presidential primary, turning to national party leaders to find another way to resolve the political stalemate over the disputed January nominating contest.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-dems18mar18,1,4743034.story

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

64. SNIPER FIRE? " MICHIGAN DEMS SCRAP PRIMARY PLAN"

LOL YOU LIED AGAIN! DO YOU THINK PEOPLE CAN'T USE THE INTERNET TUBES
THEMSELVES?

Michigan Dems scrap primary plan
By Emily Barton, written on Apr. 4, 2008, 5:14pm
Michigan will not be holding another Democratic primary or caucus.

The Michigan Democratic Party released a statement today saying “it is not practical” to hold a new election.

“We will continue to work with the Working Group, the DNC and the candidates to resolve this matter in a manner which is respectful of the views of Democrats in Michigan, and which is fair to those who voted in the January 15 Democratic primary,” the statement said.

Michigan was stripped of its delegates following the decision to move its primary before Feb. 5. A committee of Michigan Democrats — Sen. Carl Levin, Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, Democratic National Committee member Debbie Dingell and United Auto Workers President Ron Gettlefinger — has been pushing for a do-over primary, which would have been funded through private donors. The proposed primary needed to be approved by the Michigan Legislature, Gov. Jennifer Granholm, the MDP, the DNC and both presidential campaigns.

..
http://apps.michigandaily.com/blogs/thewire/?p=386

[jackson_dem]

130. Who killed the re-vote bill? Do you know who Tupac Hunter is?

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

77. MAYBE YOU'RE DIZZY FROM CORKSCREW LANDING

GO TO THAT BIG GOOGLE THING AND TYPE IN MICHIGAN + DO OVER AND
SAME FOR FLORIDA.

THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE - THE LEGISLATURES OPPOSED DO OVERS.

OBAMA IS NOT THE FL OR MI LEGISLATURE.

ANYONE READING THIS THREAD NEEDS TO FACT CHECK EACH AND EVERY THING YOU
SAY OR ELSE JUST COMPLETELY IGNORE THIS THREAD.

WE DON'T NEED TO MISLEAD AND DECEIVE PEOPLE WHO MIGHT NOT KNOW THAT YOU
AREN'T BEING HONEST.

[Zhade]

84. You're a liar. The poster is correcting your lies.

NT!

[SwampG8r]

116. its a party function

no one is disenfranchised
at some point you have to be so ashamed of yourself you have to stop

[MercutioATC]

4. ...and if this was a contest for the popular vote, I'm sure that would mean something...

It's clearly not, so why do you insist on pretending that the popular vote is the true measure?

[NanceGreggs]

10. The OP refuses to acknowledge ...

... that Acme Goalpost Movers Inc. are yet another unpaid creditor of the Hill campaign, and won't be doing any more work on her behalf.

[Zhade]

39. LOL!

Wow, that was a good one. : )

[SwampG8r]

120. wow you have the power of ten snarks

times 3

we are NOT worthy
:wow:

[jackson_dem]

11. Because it is a big deal to superdelegates

[MercutioATC]

16. Oh? Who told you this?

The SDs (and, in fact, the entire electoral process) were invented specifically to thwart the will of the people in the event that they selected a candidate that insiders felt couldn't win in the general.

Personally, I'd LOVE a straight popular vote, both for the primary and the general. I'd also like to have a pony.


The game is what it is. I agree that it needs to change, but it's not going to change (nor should it) in the middle of an election.


Dude, give up on the "popular vote" thing. Clinton has no more than a very slim chance of winning the popular vote, and it doesn't matter anyway. As much as we may think those should be the rules of the game, they aren't.

[jackson_dem]

21. Turn on the tv, read the paper

The popular vote is as valid as a scheme which gives people different power. In Pennsylvania alone today some votes were weighted thrice as much as others. This doesn't even get into how winning Idaho by 17,000 equals winning Ohio by 230,000 in the delegate scheme.

[MercutioATC]

26. Ok...you're getting your insights from pundits. Gotcha.

I'd rather look at history and present-day issues, but you're perfectly within your rights to simply listen to paid talking heads.


Jesus. You've been on DU how long and you tell me to watch TV for political truths??

[jackson_dem]

59. Ok, based on your conversations with sd's tell us how they will decide it

History? The only similarly close race to this was 1984. One election does not make a trend.

[MercutioATC]

76. Honestly? They'll vote for the best GE candidate.

...and if you can't see that Obama is that candidate (fundraising, votes, delegates, comparative skeletons) then I certainly can't convince you.

The big issue here is that they get to do their "duty" and still preserve the letter and spirit of the rules (delegate count). It's both the smartest decision and the path of least resistance.

[jackson_dem]

97. Obama proved today why he is another Dukakis

This is why Obama supporters are so upset today. His pledged delegate lead is insurmountable. They know he suffered a big blow in the superdelegate primary today.

[MercutioATC]

118. Why do you believe he suffered a "blow" today?

PA is a state that Clinton has touted as one of her many "home" states. Demographically, it's an old, white state...which favors Clinton. As of 6 weeks ago, Clinton had a 20+ point lead in PA.

Yesterday, Obama turned that 20+ point lead into a 9-point lead.

This is a state that everybody (including him) said he would lose. His loss is no surprise...but the small spread says more about Clinton losing more that 10 points of a lead than it does about Obama "losing". How would a superdelegate view a 10-point slide as a positive?

How could they view a gain of 50% of the spread in a state that's in the back pocket of the opposing candidate a "big blow" for Obama?

[jackson_dem]

125. Obamites cry whenever the reasons are mentioned

I won't rehash it. You can bet the supers will be reading the exit poll tomorrow and connecting the dots...

[MercutioATC]

137. Ahhh...no real answer, then.

Do you really not understand that the poll of remaining pledged delegates is getting smaller as the states have primaries? For every state Clinton fails to take by a huge margin, she falls further behind because she has an increasingly smaller pool of delegates to make up the difference.

Or do you believe that the SDs should and will overwhelmingly endorse the candidate who's gained fewer pledged delegates?

[Seen the light]

13. When Vice-President Gore beat Governor Bush won the popular vote in 2000...

weren't you upset when Bush still won the presidency?

Let's ignore the stealing of the election in Florida for a moment and just focus on the fact that Gore won more votes in 2000 than Bush did and that didn't matter in the end. Didn't that upset you?

I don't think we need to run away from the popular vote goalpost. She won't win it, so why compromise our value of "one person, one vote" just to help Senator Obama when he doesn't need it? It's ultimately a wasted effort that can only the Democratic Party in the long run by looking hypocritical.

Just my two cents. Peace! :hi:

[MercutioATC]

18. Post #16 (a couple above this one) explains my position....and I agree with you.

...I just don't agree with changing the rules in the middle of a race....and I don't think the SDs will, either.

[Zhade]

43. We were upset because the USSC made a one-time non-precedental ILLEGAL ruling to stop the recount!

And two on the bench should have recused themselves, but didn't.

COMPLETELY different.

[Seen the light]

47. Please reread my post n/t

[Zhade]

86. Okay, I did. My points still stand, but additionally - we shouldn't change rules in the middle...

...of the contest.

[Condem]

5. So, this is the base of your argument, Jackson?

Tell me, where does she make it up? Montana?

[GetTheRightVote]

7. you forgot the caucses totals when added in make that change

very little in reality, another posting try this move earlier in the evening.

Obama is still way ahead in the pop vote and any other way of measuring this campaige, Hillary really needs to step down because she has really lost finally.

[jackson_dem]

12. The caucus totals were included in the totals. The "netroots" is out of touch with the real world

Obama isn't ahead 95-5 in the real world and this shocks many on the "netroots". ;)

[chascarrillo]

31. There are no individual vote totals in caucus states. Sorry.

Please try again with a metric that means something.

[jackson_dem]

58. That is another Obamite fairy tale

[chascarrillo]

62. How many votes did Clinton receive in Maine?

[cliffordu]

8. More P.T. Barnum math.....

[MercutioATC]

19. Hey! You can say "P.T. Barnum math" with that pic and get away with it...

Have you ever seen a Cirque show live? It's smart stuff...don't debase it with clowns in shock wigs. :P

[cliffordu]

29. I know - that's kind of a groove on the whole self -deception meme

happening here......

:patriot:

[cliffordu]

37. I reworded that post -it actually works better...Thanks!!

[MercutioATC]

82. Hehe...I like it better too...

Apologies, Cirque Du Soleil is just one of my favorite performances (I've been to 4...on stage in one). The combination of Cirque and clowns in orange wigs just freaked me out :)

[peoli]

14. Florida and Michigan are the only states where Repubs outnumbered Democrats. What that tells you is

people stayed home! Hello? Do you not see how the vote was bogus because it was not complete?

[jackson_dem]

23. 34% turnout in FL is "bogus" yet 1.9% turnout in KS and 2.1% in Idaho is legit

Ok...

Obama killed re-votes in both states. He has to pay the price for that. He knows the will of the people in both states is with Clinton and that is why he did not want to face voters there. Obama is damaged goods ever since the MSM began vetting him ever so slightly after Wisconsin. Look at the exit polls. He is down across the board with one exception from the halycon days when he won 11 straight from 2/9 to 2/19.

[Condem]

25. Jackson- Ever been to a caucus?

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

75. GOD YOU LIED AGAIN - MORE GOP TURNOUT THAN DEMS IN FL AND MI

OBAMA DIDN'T KILL RE-VOTES. YOU LIED WHEN YOU SAID THAT.
YOU KNOW BETTER - THAT THE LEGISLATURES OPPOSED REVOTES.

LESS DEMOCRATS TURNED OUT TO VOTE BECAUSE THEY DIDN'T TAKE THE ELECTION SERIOUSLY:



Democrats in Florida and Michigan deserve to have a voice in the nomination. Currently, the DNC and the Clinton and Obama campaigns are negotiating with each state to come up with a solution. There are too many scenarios to count, but none of them change the delegate math dramatically. The Clinton campaign argues that the non-binding beauty contests held in January should count, but nobody expects that to happen -- for good reason.

In Florida and Michigan, more Republicans voted than Democrats -- unlike in just about all the other primaries.

The reason? Democrats didn't take the primaries in Florida and Michigan seriously because they knew they wouldn't count.

http://www.obamaiswinning.com/

[jackson_dem]

99. Even under your metric turnout was over 10x higher in FL than in some caucuses

Your graph is a joke. The rethugs no longer had a competitive primary after Florida. Of course their turnout was lower after that. Their race was effectively done after five states. Our race is at 43 states and counting.

[The Doctor.]

135. Wow... do I smell 'bullshit' again? "Obama killed revotes in (FL/MI)"?!?

How'd he do that?

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

46. worse, Fl is state where Clinton Co Chair fights for GOP's re-election

Debbie Wasserman Schultz is supposed to help Dems get elected but
prefers to help keep her repug congressmen friends in office.

Florida is a disgrace.

Not losing anything there.

[Occam Bandage]

17. Newsflash: FL and MI don't count.

[MattBaggins]

30. Clicked on a j_d post

and got what I expected

white white white white white

Am I Wright?

[Name removed]

66. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

81. Lies and racism in this thread

and here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5636106&mesg_id=5637420

[jackson_dem]

100. Facts are racism YourVoteWillNotBCounted?

Have you heard there is a thing called exit polling?

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

109. you threw the race card

AND LOTS OF LIES

[jackson_dem]

119. So you believe the Obama campaign has done so too, YourVoteWillNotBCounted?

Ask the Obama campaign why they believe they will or will not win particular states. They will tell you what I did. The difference is they will offer you kool aid after saying it. :rofl:

[chascarrillo]

32. There. Is. No. National. Popular. Vote.

[PBS Poll-435]

33. Tell that to the folks that are

*pimping* Newsweak & Gallup.

:P

[BzaDem]

35. Too. Bad. No one off this board agrees.

[chascarrillo]

45. What was the popular vote total in Nevada? Thanks.

[BzaDem]

122. Nevada is one of 4 states that estimate vote totals by state delegates * turnout. And Hillary won.

[Zhade]

90. The Democratic party and its leaders agree. You're wrong.

NT!

[Zhade]

36. FL and MI will not be counted, so your premise is flawed.

I stopped reading after that, because it won't happen. Even if the delegates are seated, it will be in a way that BOTH campaigns agree on, as the DNC has stated.

[jackson_dem]

68. Says who? No one can force every superdelegate to pretend Florida never voted

[Zhade]

91. Says the DNC, the people who make the rules, and they don't care about your petulant fantasies.

Stomp your foot all you want, they're not going to give the nom to clinton as you so obviously wish.

[jackson_dem]

93. What authority does the DNC have to order a superdelegate to think a certain way?

How do they enforce it? Does Dean have a magic device that can delete Florida from the memory of every superdelegate? :rofl:

[BzaDem]

123. Exactly.

[LadyVT]

41. She is now ahead in the popular vote

As it stands tonight:
Obama’s Popular votes: 14,988,274 (49.8%)

Hillary’s Popular votes: 15,098,149 (50.2%)

(PA: 1239424 Clinton; 1023350 Obama; +216,074 for Hillary with 99% reporting)

Yes, of course this includes MI and FL. They are citizens of this country, and they voted.

[Condem]

44. Lady VT

Enough of the baseless shit.

[chascarrillo]

48. What about the citizens of Wyoming? Washington? Iowa?

[jackson_dem]

69. Results

Wyoming 5,378 61.4% 3,311 37.8%

*(Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine Have Not Released Popular Vote Totals. RealClearPolitics has estimated the popular vote totals for Senator Obama and Clinton in these four states. RCP uses the WA Caucus results from February 9 in this estimate because the Caucuses on February 9 were the “official” contest recognized by the DNC to determine delegates to the Democratic convention. The estimate from these four Caucus states where there are not official popular vote numbers increases Senator Obama’s popular vote margin by 110,224. This number would be about 50,000 less if the Washington primary results from February 19th were used instead of the Washington Caucus results.)

Every other caucus state reported the popular vote...

[chascarrillo]

85. From your post: "Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine Have Not Released Popular Vote Totals."

:rofl:

:rofl:

:rofl:

[jackson_dem]

92. The following caucus states have

Alaska
Colorado
Idaho
Kansas
Minnesota
New Mexico
North Dakota
Nebraska
Hawaii
Wyoming

10 have, 4 haven't. Those 4 didn't have enough voters in the first place to make much a dent since caucuses have low turnout and tend to be held in small states. 16% turnout for Iowa, by far the highest for a caucus, 9% for Nevada, and 5% for Maine. The Washington primary had more than double the turnout of the Washington caucus.

[chascarrillo]

98. Yeah, Washington is a really, really small state.

:rofl:

No national popular vote total. Give it up.

[jackson_dem]

101. It isn't. Too bad they opted for a caucus with about 10% turnout

Do you understand how 10% of 1,000 is less than 33% of 300?

[chascarrillo]

104. "Do you understand how 10% of 1,000 is less than 33% of 300?"

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Edit to add: Damn, you Clinton supporters really are horrible at math!

[jackson_dem]

106. A typo. Notice the proximity of "0" to "9"

Now do you understand the concept? Washington's is a medium sized state but had low turnout. Hence it had a lower vote total than many smaller states.

[chascarrillo]

114. Yeah, a typo. Right. Because you really meant to use unrounded numbers unlike 10, 1000, and 300.

Give it up.

Washington had a huge caucus turnout - over twice as large as the previous record. It does not have a popular vote because it didn't have a primary that determined delegates. You throw in apples in the bushel of oranges and call it all the same. You can't do it. Sorry. Give it up.

[SwampG8r]

126. math hurts your head i bet

10% of 1000 is 100 ok?
33% of 300 would be 99

so in hillaryland 99 is more than 100?
for gods sake man
pull yourself together

[Zhade]

50. You need to recheck your math.

Oh, and no, FL and MI will not count. This has already been decided, and you can't change that fact.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

55. OH YOU'RE MAKING IT UP AS YOU GO - NOT WORRIED ABOUT FACTS

KIND OF LIKE ANNIE OAKLY IN TUZLA

[BalancedGoat]

56. Only if you ignore a few states.

Do the votes of Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine count for nothing?

:shrug:

[jackson_dem]

71. Read the OP. They do but very few people actually voted there

Popular Vote (w/FL)14,937,68748.3%14,729,17047.6% Obama +208,517+0.7%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 15,271,77148.4%14,953,03247.4% Obama +318,739+1.0%

Too bad they don't make much of a difference.

[BalancedGoat]

79. Wasn't responding to you. n/t

[yewberry]

95. Yeah, too bad my state doesn't make much of a difference.

Better than a quarter million people caucused in my state; I guess we're not important enough to be considered in your calculations. I spent more than 18 hours caucusing, but apparently that's sort of beside the point for those of you that don't want our states to be counted according to the rules.

Thanks.

(And despite your efforts, there is still no valid 'popular vote' count in the primaries as long as there are caucus states. Sorry.)

[jackson_dem]

115. 250k out of how many? Over 30 million nationally. That is what it is

18 hours. Too bad many working folks, seniors, and immigrants don't have 18 hours to spare to vote in contests that have turnout as low as 1.9%.

[yewberry]

63. There's no such thing in a primary.

'Popular vote' doesn't exist in the Dem primary. Please understand how disrespectful that is to caucus state voters. The RCP horserace numbers use my state's primary numbers--a non-binding primary that was widely ignored because it was, uh, non-binding and was not the basis for assigning delegates.

Voters in caucus states might not be popular with you, but our votes shouldn't be 'estimated.'

[jackson_dem]

88. RCP uses the caucus result even though the primary had more than 2x the turnout

There are estimates for only four caucuses. It doesn't matter much since so few people showed up it doesn't make a dent in the national numbers.

Each vote should count once. That is a fundamental democratic and Democratic principle (or it least was before Obama came along). I do not believe a vote in Philadelphia should be worth three times a vote in rural Pennsylvania or that a vote in Idaho should be worth 10x more than a vote in Ohio.

[MattBaggins]

96. Now you're just being asinine

The delegate system was in place long before Obama came on the scene.

[jackson_dem]

108. Should a vote in one city be worth 3x more than that in another town in the same state?

What is your view on that principle?

[yewberry]

103. The horserace feature uses the primary numbers.

The caucuses are the mechanism used to choose delegates, so there's a discrepancy there. The primary was a useless beauty contest, so RCP shouldn't use those numbers.

More than 250,000 people showed up in my state to caucus. We fucking showed up and our votes matter. The fact that you don't like caucuses has no bearing on how states choose to appoint their delegates, and trying to make an argument about 'popular votes' outside the GE makes you look silly and desperate.

And claiming that Barack Obama is somehow responsible for the fact that some states choose to vote with caucuses rather than primaries is, frankly, bizarre. If you hate caucuses so much, maybe you should wage a national campaign against them rather than trying to assign 'blame' for their results to a candidate. You can believe whatever you want about how delegates selected...until the GE, there is no such thing as a 'popular vote' count.

[jackson_dem]

110. RCP doesn't. Read the link.

"More than 250,000 people showed up in my state to caucus. We fucking showed up and our votes matter. "

Yeah, and more than twice that number showed up for the primary. Those votes don't matter when assessing the popular will? :shrug:

[yewberry]

121. Jesus wept. YOU need to read the link.

The RCP horserace feature uses WA primary numbers NOT caucus numbers. And just so you know, no one actually "showed up for the primary" here. We have a mail-in primary, and it was largely ignored because we all knew it was a beauty contest.

There's no official count for the caucus. Therefore, no 'popular vote' numbers. Please, educate yourself before you try to tell me what went on in my own state.

[jackson_dem]

124. Wrong

*(Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine Have Not Released Popular Vote Totals. RealClearPolitics has estimated the popular vote totals for Senator Obama and Clinton in these four states. RCP uses the WA Caucus results from February 9 in this estimate because the Caucuses on February 9 were the “official” contest recognized by the DNC to determine delegates to the Democratic convention. The estimate from these four Caucus states where there are not official popular vote numbers increases Senator Obama’s popular vote margin by 110,224. This number would be about 50,000 less if the Washington primary results from February 19th were used instead of the Washington Caucus results.)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[yewberry]

128. Look at your own RCP horserace link.

It uses the WA primary results, not the caucus results.

The horserace link. You put it up yourself. Read it.

[jackson_dem]

131. It has all conceivable scenarios. Some use it, some don't

The point is to give you an idea to see how the supers could look at the issue. If the 60k vote gap matters by the end of this do you think the Clinton camp won't argue that the primary should be used? Some supers will accept that argument, whether the netroots or Dean would like it or not.

[yewberry]

132. I don't need a list of conceivable scenarios that ignores my vote.

The supers here know what they should do. WA went heavily for Obama--4 to 1 in my district.

It doesn't matter what the Clinton camp thinks about whether the caucus or the primary should be used for calculations. The rules in WA state that the caucuses are what determines delegates; the primary was a beauty contest and everyone knew it.

The point is that there is no way to legitimately claim a 'popular vote' victory when there are states that use caucuses and don't do an official headcount.

[jackson_dem]

133. Supers can use whatever they wish to decide

:)

[symbolman]

67. but don't forget to factor in all the boxtops and soup labels Hillary's people

have collected and are ready to turn in at the Convention for extra Credit.. :)

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

83. now JD is throwing in the racism stuff

here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5636106&mesg_id=5637420

[Clintonista2]

134. Yawn

[SwampG8r]

102. lotta loose numbers and dare i say hope in this crudpile

[pointsoflight]

113. Here's some reality for you.

Before today, Hillary needed 66% of the remaining pledged delegates to overtake Obama in that department.

After today, she needs 71%.

She may have technically won this battle, but she LOST ground in the overall war.

[jackson_dem]

117. Here's some reality: she has no shot at winning the PD battle

This is about the supers and they will not be pleased with Obama's loss in yet another big state and what the exit polls reveal about Obama. His chief problem, among other lesser problems, is he can't win the Reagan Democrats.

[pointsoflight]

127. Well, you keep believing that the remaining superdelegates...

...will overwhelmingly go Clinton's way to overturn an advantage of over 150 pledged delegates... just keep believing that. But it just ain't gonna happen. If Obama had some clearly fatal flaw or clearly had no chance to win in the GE, perhaps. But there is no data to indicate that he's such a candidate. By all indications, he's in at least as good of a position to win the GE as Hillary. Given that, no way do the remaining superdelegates go to Clinton in a landslide, so as to override Obama's pledged delegate advantage. Sorry, just not going to happen, and you're just not being objective or in any way reasonable to think that that's anything more than an extreme longshot with virtually no chance of happening.

[jackson_dem]

129. His major flaws were on display for all supers to see today

[AllexxisF1]

138. Explain to me.

EXPLAIN TO ME HOW THE POPULAR VOTE MATTERS AT ALL IN THIS PRIMARY SEASON?


Take a F-ING civics lesson....Popular Vote does not matter toward the election, pledge delegates do.

[The Doctor.]

136. Out of all the disingenuous Clinton supporters, you are by far

the most full of shit.

Nice work.