Obama closes in on the 'Pelosi Trigger' Magic Number now only 143

[grantcart]

To remind, the real pre convention magic number is not 2024 but rather 1627. That is 50% of the pledged delegates. There are a number of Super Delegates who have pledged to follow the will of the pledged delegates. They are referred to as the Pelosi Club as Speaker Pelosi was the first to speak in such definitive terms.

Obama currently has 1416 pledged delegates and is estimated at picking up 68 in Pennsylvania leaving only 143 delegates to reach 1627.http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ultimate-delegate-summary.html

Once Senator Obama has reached that point two things will happen;

1) A signficant number of super delegates will endorse him (including some Clinton Super Delegates)

2) The psychology of the spin will change completely. Hillary will no longer be talking about winning the delegate race but having to justify overturning the will of the democratically elected pledged delegates.


This will almost certainly happen during the Oregon primary on May 20th.


This should bring to an end the fiction that this contest has more than one possible outcome and we will have our presumptive nominee.

[mcctatas]

1. Oh god I hope this is the case...

at this point, I just need it to be over!

[grantcart]

30. super delegates may not be super but they certainly aren't stupid

[DeeDeeNY]

60. Not very super in my book

They are making things more difficult than they have to be.
The use of super delegates should be discontinued after this election.

[grantcart]

77. rather narcissitic group aren't they.

[ORDem]

106. Oh it is. About May 20th (OR/KY primaries) Obama should hit that magic PD number.

The "dynamic" as the Shrillbots like to call it will change dramatically and she knows it. She will look absolutely pathetic if she tries to create a brokered convention at that point.

:dem:

[grantcart]

107. and here is the thing we need to keep in mind the SDs are not stupid

just not particularly courageous - once a door opens that they can move in a group there will be an initial group and then there will be a flood.

Among the flood will be Reps and others that represent AA districts that cannot wait to get back in tune with their constituents.

[goclark]

122. Please let this happen

I have called on all my prayer Angels.

My grandmother would tell us when we were little and misbehaving, "Don't you do that, God doesn't like ugly."

In our culture,you are suppose to "do unto others."

I want that lesson to be learned so that our children can experience valuable life long lessons.

I want our political leaders to set good examples~ don't lie, cheat, smear others and respect your family.

The Democratic party is like a family and it hurts me to see it destroyed by those who have self serving agendas.

[grantcart]

125. well remember these guys are good real good

[cliffordu]

2. Kicked for Genius, and brevity!!!!

:headbang:

[grantcart]

6. Thanks Clifford

[cliffordu]

12. Yer most welcome!!

:patriot:

[Hugabear]

3. That's why Pelosi needs to shut her fucking mouth

As per those Hillary supporters who sent that threatening letter last month.

[grantcart]

5. huh?

[ClassWarrior]

7. You mean the ones who are hacked they can't buy the candidate this time?

NGU.

[grantcart]

120. that would be them

[Name removed]

4. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[chknltl]

8. KnR Thanks for keepin it real again grantcart! nt

[grantcart]

14. tks chknltl

[speedoo]

9. But Dean has committed to resolve Florida and Michigan soon.

That would move the number higher than 1627 and most likely increase Obama's magic number.

Depending of couse on what the resolution is.

[grantcart]

11. that will be resolved after we have a presumptive nominee

If for no other reason they will want him to be the good guy and get the credit for the magnanimous gesture.

[Zhade]

25. Dean has made it clear, consistently, that both campaigns must agree to the resolution.

So, she's still toast. : )

[speedoo]

33. So she could stonewall and continue to drag this out?

I mean, she has not shown any willingness to do what's right for the party, so why would she agree to anything at all? Just say no and force a floor fight.

Hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see her agreeing to effectively end this.

[madfloridian]

83. She has the advantage over those who follow rules....she follows her own.

That makes it easy.

She is literally making up rules as she goes and declaring them party rules.

It's easier that way. :shrug:

[speedoo]

86. Thanks, madfloridian.

Folks like you give me hope.

[grantcart]

114. There is only one rule find the only rationale that would justify her and use that

[grantcart]

82. and he has appointed a strong 25 member of independent minded folks to the

steering committee

[speedoo]

87. True, but Hillary and her cronies will just see that as another obstacle.

She still obviously sees the WH as her entitlement.

[madfloridian]

75. Not so they count toward the nominee.

Just so they will be at the convention.

"Dean is taking a hands-off approach with Florida and Michigan. Both states violated party rules when they voted early. Dean says at this point he doesn't want to seat them at the convention and have that change who wins the nomination. He's hoping a nominee emerges because a convention fight in August puts Democrats at a disadvantage-- then they'll only have a few months to campaign against Republican John McCain."

http://www.wcax.com:80/Global/story.asp?S=8208408&nav=menu183_2

He said they would be seated, he reserved hotel rooms, but not count toward the nominee.

[speedoo]

78. Thanks.

I knew you's be on top of this, madfloridian!

[grantcart]

80. thanks for stopping by

[madfloridian]

84. Good post.

:hi:

[ampad]

10. Thanks grantcart

I forgot all about the Peolosi number. Thank god the end is near. Rec

[grantcart]

24. tks

[phrigndumass]

13. Oregon is right. If he can make it there, he can make it anywhere!

Only one month away. K/R!

:woohoo:

[davidpdx]

15. It would be nice if Oregon put him over

That's my home state and I'm an overseas voter. I have my ballot here at the house and am going to mail it tomorrow.

[grantcart]

112. great

[grantcart]

115. and I think if Oregon realizes the honor it has it will really go wild

[bigbrother05]

16. Grantcart ? why do we have to wait until Oregon

can't this happen May 6th?

[Spider Jerusalem]

18. Won't happen May 6, not even if Obama wins NC 65/35 and IN 55/45.

Those margins would still leave him needing 39 delegates to reach the 'Pelosi number'. And I expect that NC will be closer to 58/42 for Obama, and Indiana is a possible Clinton win.

[grantcart]

22. never mind

[grantcart]

20. No its not possible

guam 3
Indiana May 6
N Carolina May 6
W Virginia May 13

[Why Syzygy]

17. Obama needs to stay Upbeat. Let Hillary wallow in the mud. nt

[grantcart]

23. Exactly what the NYT editorial said - did you see it?

[Why Syzygy]

27. No. Where?

I heard the Times is running a story, "The low road ..." about Hillary this morning.

[grantcart]

29. It will be everywhere tomorrow

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5636090

[Why Syzygy]

37. I guess you've seen this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-BszlG4xQo

He is so gracious. What a stark contrast between what we've had and what we will.

[SoFlaJet]

56. he can be magnanimous

in defeat but she can't even acknowledge his wins-he's such a better PERSON than she is...it's one of the reasons why I'm proud to now be a supporter of Barack Obama

[grantcart]

76. He is so good. Come on Indiana - come on NC

[bhikkhu]

19. Perhaps Oregon will be the "Key State", then?

Actually I hope good sense and party-interests set in before then, but it would be nice to have the candidates schmoozing and handshaking in my neighborhood!

[grantcart]

21. Or Kentucky earlier in the day.

[bhikkhu]

26. My own take on things...

Hillary cannot be so insulated from her situation as to not realize:

The nomination just passed out of reach. There are debts to pay, and no real funds for campaigning, but there is a win to capitalize upon. She will raise some immediate funds, but then does she spend these and put her nose to the grindstone for a best-case-scenario win/loss in Indiana and North Carolina, to break even after massive efforts and have the goal even farther away, and the option of dropping out later in disgrace after a sound defeat?

I hope she will take her opportunity: raise some funds, have a good week or two, pay off debts and exit on a high note. Support the presumptive nominee while that support still has a bit of resonance. Her other options are rather grim, and I can only imagine that they are apparent to her.

[grantcart]

28. I had the same thought - her speech was surprisingly reconciling and

she kept mentioning Obama by name a rarity for her.

[bhikkhu]

31. And asking for money!

[grantcart]

73. wonder if she is going to spend that money or pay of her debt including her loan

[bigbrother05]

32. I was out of town and missed the Pelosi Club

numbers, i will have to catch up.

[grantcart]

79. In two weeks they will be halved again

[Raine]

34. TERRIFIC...

I really hope so. I'm so tired of this thing being drug on and on when the numbers show the contest is basically all but over now.

[Eurobabe]

35. Please, make her GO AWAY!!

I can't stand the SIGHT of the Clintons anymore, get them OFF my TV screen!! :nuke: :puke:

[akbacchus_BC]

36. You can switch channels like I do, would make you feel better.

Did you see Senator Clinton's victory speech? I changed channels and only managed to catch the ending part of Senator Obama's speech. Am curious if her speech was that great as Buchanan, Russert and a few others were saying that hers was much more confident than Obama's! By the way, the others were saying that she did not attack Obama but KO said she did. Just asking your opinion.

[Eurobabe]

39. I live overseas

I can just flip off my American TV anytime and turn on the native one. Too bad you all can't do that. :hi:

[akbacchus_BC]

40. Hey, am in Canada, I can change channels too. Thanks for your

response. I was asking if you felt that Senator Clinton delivered a better victory speech than Senator Obama. In my opinion he won too, ne narrowed the gap from 20 to 10.

[Eurobabe]

41. I don't know, had Hillary on mute as usual

Her voice is like fingernails on the chalkboard to me. I heard bits and pieces of Obama's response. At least he had the graciousness to congratulate her. You know she wouldn't be congratulating HIM if he had won.

Meh.

[akbacchus_BC]

45. You know, this race to the White House is unbelievable. Never thought Barack Obama would throw his

hat and never even thought Senator Clinton would too. But as I see the two of them racing for the white house, am behind Obama. I just so want Obama to win, America needs a new diversion, same old same old, sucks!

[grantcart]

111. Clinton not run?? lol

[ScarletSniper]

53. I always mute her...always without fail.

[IsItJustMe]

51. Apples and oranges. Obama's speech was directed at McCain and was statesmen like. Hillary's speech

was more like a cheer leading contest. To me, it comes down to taste. I like statesmen.

[grantcart]

123. yeah and no thermonuclear war too

[akbacchus_BC]

38. I really like how positive you are. When I saw the votes coming in..

and Senator Obama was behind by 8, I felt good, then it was 6 and I felt even better but when it reached 10, I sort of consoled myself that he still closed the gap from 20 to 10. Hearing some of the media pundits like Russert, Buchanan, etc., they are making it seem as though the SD's will reconsider, pause, and wait for the next primary before pledging their support. How do you see this panning out?

[TheDonkey]

43. They were supposed to do that after OH too, but they didn't.

[akbacchus_BC]

47. Thank you for the response. Obama is my next President n/t

[IsItJustMe]

52. You have to keep in mind that it is in the media's interest to hype this and keep it going. It's

great for their ratings. There is no honesty in our media any more. If there was, they would tell it like it is and this would be over.

[grantcart]

71. thanks

[MattBaggins]

109. Yes they are going to wait

Many of these SDs need to face re-election or work in their communities when all is said and done. If you are looking for re-election you have to weigh ticking off Obama's supporters vs. ticking of Clinton's followers. They will tread very carefully and make sure that the candidate they choose will truly be able to justify their claim to winning.

[grantcart]

116. actually 75 of them are add on SDs that haven't been chosen yet

there are a few that have already been determined to be Obama 'seats' going to a confirmed Obama supporter.

[grantcart]

110. thanks

[Hawkeye-X]

42. So, with NC coming up in two weeks from yesterday....

What is Obama's expected delegate number to reduce the Pelosi number?

Obama is already polling 20% or higher, and will be a major, major blowout as well as another close one in Indiana, but I expect him to squeak by - as he's already busy in Indiana campaigning as he should be.

So Hillary, a day late, and a dollar wasted on the "victory" party of yours in Philly.

Hawkeye-X

[grantcart]

65. well here is the deal if you take the most favorable for Hillary or the most favorable for Obama

scenario they keep ending up that the pledged delegate majority will be decided in Oregon.

[TragedyandHope]

44. K & R

Thanks for the uplifting math!

[grantcart]

57. Thanks its not the uplifting math or the hopeful math its just the math

and thats why it is uplifting

[dbmk]

46. More math

Hillary passed the point where she could win on pledged delegates alone. A technical point, granted. But noteworty perhaps.

[karynnj]

48. Nice analysis and graph

This is an important point, though one likely to difficult to explain to a media that thinks that 8.5% is double digits.

[grantcart]

63. they will understand it when the super delegates endorse

[grantcart]

89. but, the Clinton supporter will say, they are so close

[SunsetDreams]

49. K&R GoBama!!!

[grantcart]

68. thanks

[phrigndumass]

50. Morning update: I think the Pelosi number is 136 now?

If the Green Papers website has it right, the Pennsylvania delegates should split 84 to 74. That would give Senator Obama 1,490.5 pledged delegates. If 1,626.5 is the halfway mark, Obama would be 136 short of half.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/PA-D.phtml

Of course, I could be mistaken ... I'll trust your calcs.

:hi:

[grantcart]

58. my calcs consist of clicking on demconwatch lol

which uses GP lol

[grantcart]

67. now 137

[phrigndumass]

74. 137 is gravy!

The meatloaf was already eaten. <--- look, more food snobbery!

:thumbsup:

[grantcart]

113. parsley

[psychopomp]

54. I was looking forward to your first post-PA thread

I am far to unorganized a person to sit down and work out the numbers myself. Thanks for bringing some clarity to this situation! :toast:

[grantcart]

69. thanks for the beer

[DemVet]

55. Significant number of SD's my ass.

All of eight people are in this "club."

Obama people reaching out their ass once again.

[merbex]

59. Since when does Nancy Pelosi get to write the DNC rules?

I am postively floored by the ignorance of how this Party actually works by those that post on this site.

The DNC has a Rules Committee FYI and I challenge anyone to point out where in the rules of the DNC the "Pelosi Trigger" exists

You want to change things in the Democratic Party?

Get on your local ward, city, or Town Committee, get elected to the State Democratic Party and then...get elected to the DNC... then get put on the Rules Committee then float an idea like this.

Nancy Pelosi doesn't write the Rules of the The Democratic Party

[grantcart]

61. She isn't writing any rules. She has described the conditions that she needs to

vote for the nominee. Every super delegate has their own criteria.

A number of super delegates (including some that have endorsed Clinton) have agreed with her criteria.

Your take is 100% wrong.

[merbex]

62. Writing about her "solution" as if if were de facto gospel rules is what 's wrong

with this thread;just another way to circumvent the real number that is needed 2024 - and allow for changing circumstances which is why we have super delegates:new information can come to light making what is obvious in Feb. less so as November approaches.

[grantcart]

64. And all of the new information is going Obama's way

there are for example increasing numbers of Clinton supporters who have indicated that they will follow the pledged delegate choice.

Can you please advise a single Obama delegate that is considering changing his or her mind? link please?

[grantcart]

66. Please note that the above OP was issued on an estimate of delegates from PA

with the revised number the Pelosi Trigger has now been lowered to 137

as per DemconWatch http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ultimate-delegate-summary.html

[Qutzupalotl]

70. Obama, we've got your back here in Oregon.

We will be happy to seal the deal!

[grantcart]

72. How does it look outside of Portland?

[Qutzupalotl]

81. Eugene will go Obama.

Probably Medford and Corvallis too.

Many rural areas are red, so difficult to gauge this time; either not voting or perhaps Clinton. She has many backers on the coast as well, but these areas are less populous. The muslim/flag smears could gain some traction in the red areas, sad to say.

Oregonians tend to be independent-minded, so IMO not a good fit for a mandatory-coverage plan. They like the Constitutional support they're hearing from Obama. Young voters are registering in droves.

[grantcart]

88. Is it an open primary? Can republicans come in and cause havoc?

[Qutzupalotl]

93. It's closed.

You have to register D by April 29. There is a huge voter registration drive going on right now.

I don't know about crossover voters, but there are Rush listeners in Oregon. But the motivation is more on the Democratic side, and it's heavily Obama.

[grantcart]

97. thanks

If you have any links to news reports on the registration in Oregon you should post a thread here - people would be very interested.

[Scurrilous]

85. K & R

:thumbsup:

[grantcart]

119. tks

[truebrit71]

90. Thank you for laying it out so clearly for everyone....however...

...If Obama wins NC and keeps it close in IN I have a hunch that she will bail out...either that night or very soon thereafter...

Regardless of the hooting and hollering about the fund raising that may have occurred for the Clinton campaign since last night, they still have a massive debt to retire and it will become increasingly difficult to do that as the number of primaries declines...This was her last real shot to stay in the race through the convention and I think that all she is doing now is making sure to get a majority of her debt paid off and then retire from the race with a small victory in Indiana.

Of course, the best case scenario is that Obama wins BOTH and takes the decision out of her hands.

That will depend on the polling, and that can cost alot of money...something in short supply around the Hillary campaign HQ...if it stays tight in IN look for her to start floating the "I was outspent by my opponent and I can't carry on"...

Either way HRC is done, the only thing we are waiting for is for the candidate herself to come to that realisation.

[grantcart]

95. Hopefully she raises enough money in the next few weeks and leaves on top

[futureliveshere]

91. Thanks for reminding us of this. Its amazing how much noise the MSM is making to extend this farce.

[grantcart]

96. thanks for stopping by

[futureliveshere]

102. My pleasure. It's well worth my time.

[grantcart]

127. ..

[ClayZ]

92. K and R

[grantcart]

98. thanks

[knixphan]

94. we'll make more noise very shortly.

When his donation numbers for April come out.

[grantcart]

101. wonder what ever happened on that one minute campaign

never really heard the result have you?

[uponit7771]

99. Another reason why this will end in June, Keep up the good post sir

[grantcart]

103. thank you

[Yukari Yakumo]

100. Scenarios...

50/50 split of Guam's 4 delegates
Indiana 53-47 Obama
60-40 Obama in NC
60-40 HRC in WV
and 60-40 HRC in KY

...and that's as far as we need to go. At that point Obama would pass the 1627 mark. Also, Oregon is the same day as Kentucky on May 20th, thus giving this scenario considerable leeway. So expect this race to be effectively over then.

Let's say Obama and Clinton tie in Oregon. In which case if I...

Give Indiana 55-45 to Clinton
65-35 Clinton in both WV and KY
Make NC a tie.

... and even then Obama still passes the 1627 mark.

So rest assured. This race will be done on May 20th, if not sooner.

[grantcart]

104. what totals are you using for the various states?

[Yukari Yakumo]

124. I was using Slate's delegate calculator

Scen 1: O - C
Guam: 2 - 2
IN: 38 - 34
NC: 69 - 46
WV: 11 - 17
KY: 20 - 31

At this point it would be Obama 1628, HRC 1468

Scen 2: O - C
Guam 2 - 2
IN: 32 - 40
NC: 58 - 58
WV: 10 - 18
KY: 18 - 33
OR: 26 - 26

At this point it would be Obama 1634, HRC 1515

[grantcart]

126. KY or Oregon - of course there could be some additional pledged delegates

from other state conventions in the meantime.

[mckeown1128]

105. By my calculations Hillary would have to get 64% delegates..

plus a few extra in order to beat him in the PD count. To get that high a percentage of the vote... she would have to get a much higher count in the vote totals.


So why are we still running a Democratic Primary??? It's over.

[grantcart]

108. Todd on MSNBC said yesterday that it would be about 69%

but of course everytime she goes below that number goes higher.

He simply said that if they were going to call the pledged race like they would call an election the would call Obama the winner a long time ago.

[Adelante]

117. Here is a new SD for Obama, grantcart

Ben Smith has a note on it:

ALSO: A Nebraska superdelegate, Audra Ostergard, comes out for Obama.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0408/Remainders_But_what_does_it_mean.html

I'm out of OPs for the day.

[grantcart]

118. lol just caught you at the other thread lol

thanks I have added it to a couple of threads also

[grantcart]

121. ..