Was Race a Strong Factor in Clear Clinton Win in Pennsylvania? - Greg Mitchell

[WillyT]

<snip>

I blogged on this issue yesterday -- and a GOP leader's claim that John McCain will have a big edge on Obama because of the racial vote in November. It drew a wide and varied response from readers. Before that, I had long suggested that many understate the number of older Democrats who are (still) racist and who would tip many contests to Clinton. But I closed yesterday's post by saying that if Obama won or came close in Pennsylvania that might put the issue to rest.

Didn't happen. And the exit polls show, again, that one in four Clinton voters claim they would not vote for Obama in November. For whatever reason. And she got 70% of the white, blue-collar vote in most regions, including the area of central Pennsylvania where I spent a lot of time growing up and heard many a racist remark.

Other details from polling turn up other troubling numbers along those lines.

And once again, the old phenomenon of exit polls proven wrong, because people with racist views do not tell pollsters the truth on election day, again reared its head. The final exit polls today indicated only a 4% Clinton win. Now it looks like 10%. That difference is largely the racial vote, I'd guess. I call them the true "late deciders" -- they decide to show their bigotry in the privacy of the voting booth.

Tim Russert reported tonight that the GOP in North Carolina is now going to play the race card against Obama in primary ads there, which can only help Clinton.

Anyway, I will leave it at that -- you guys and gals go at it. As I've said before, I am just putting this all out there, not to suggest, at all, that Obama should not or can not be the nominee. Let's just say that I am very sensitive to the continuing problems of race and racial prejudice in society.

<snip>

Link: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/greg-mitchell/was-race-a-strong-factor_b_98115.html

Tom Bradley effect again???

:shrug:

[bevoette]

1. who really knows...but this elephant in the living room sure does stink (nm)

[MarjorieG]

2. We always come up with reasons after the vote, which is unverifiable.

Party funny business could account for a little. Then we make great overreaching assumptions.

[The_Casual_Observer]

3. Race is only a factor when Hillary wins. Otherwise it's ...well.. it's

not.

[ej510]

4. I am sick of that shit because black people always vote for white canidates. So cut the bullshit.

There are a shit load of old white one tooth racist in this country. It's amazes me how a mutha fucka hate someone black when it was whites who slaughtered blacks. Yet blacks like whites more than whites like blacks.

[The_Casual_Observer]

12. You forgot to use "cracker".

[aquart]

24. Yes, sweetie, whenever there are only white candidates.

Or, according to Mrs. Chris Rock (I'm told), whenever the black candidate is darker than a brown paper bag.

Guess what? Groups discriminate within themselves! Or haven't you ever heard of the white people of Ireland?

You silly child. So much to learn. So little insight.

[Terran]

9. Well, the subject is generally avoided

There are demographics involved here that don't exist in all states. A lot of poor rural white people, for one thing. This isn't whining, it's discussing reality. I'm not saying this loss is entirely due to racism, but I think it's a significant factor. Anyone who denies that is denying simple reality.

[Terran]

5. I have to believe that it is, for the following reason:

There have been a lot of stories around how HRC "appeals" to white blue collar types, but let's face it people: there is absolutely NOTHING about her that actually appeals, in any inherent way, to that demographic. She has zip in common with them. The only thing she has that Obama doesn't have is her color (or lack of it, depending on your perspective). We've spent a lot of time not talking about racism here and how it will affect this election, but it's time, I think, to acknowledge it. I do feel that Obama is such a smart person he can find ways to over some some of it. But enough? I don't know. Frankly I think that Hillary's negatives are twice as big a liability as Obama's skin color.

And I know from experience that even some of the most progressive people out there can still be incredibly stupid when it comes to their personal bigotry. I've seen this in dreadful detail, up close.

[bevoette]

10. "white, blue collar types" is like "urban"

*nudge nudge* *wink wink*

[Skink]

6. It will be a factor when we find out how many big city machines caused problems....

When lines were a mile long because of compuer gliches and folks had to run to work etc.

[movonne]

7. Well I think many racist people would vote repug anyway...

[BeyondGeography]

8. The exit poll discrepancy sucks

White people who lie about their vote because they feel guilty or whatever the hell their reason is...pathetic.

[undeterred]

18. They are ashamed, as they should be.

[frazzled]

11. The variance from the 4% spread in the exit polls might be due to entirely other reasons.

I'm not saying it is, but what if the variance is due to manipulation of the vote tabulation? (it is a machine state, after all.)
It could be due to a crappy polling design or inferior workers.
There could be other explanations.

There is no causal relationship that can be proven here between race and the exit poll discrepancies: it's a guess. I see very little motivation for anyone to say they voted for Obama when they really didn't (except to fuck with the pollsters' heads).

Yet again, people would like to push the meme that Obama is a black man, and that's a problem that makes him unelectable. I believe that is a Clinton argument. I'm not particularly buying it--and even if I believed it, it would be a crying shame to capitulate to the inevitability of racism. It's really a quite despicable argument: suggesting the superdelegates should overturn a nomination because there are racists in the country.

I'm bewildered by Pennsylvania. I never had any idea it was so cretinous.

[HuffleClaw]

13. translation: if you don't vote obama you are by definition racist

this 'argument' is beyond tiresome

[WillyT]

14. Well Thanks... Great To Know That Racism Is Non-Existent In Democratic Voters...

For a minute there I was concerned.

Again... Thanks.

:evilfrown:

[cali]

19. moronic. race is a part of the equation.

and sorry, there are people who won't vote for someone who's black. Same is true re gender, but a lot of the people who hesitate about a woman are the same people who say that bill did a good job and he'll be there in the WH.

[aquart]

23. Frontrunner claiming underdog again?

[aquart]

22. And not a little racist.

[truth please]

15. Ron Reagan was the only one with the balls

to tell the truth tonight. I watch and listen to all the television pundits sit around and spin what is obvious. For weeks Pat Buchanan with his (Black people should be happy to have been brought over on slave ships) racist ass has been stating it over and over, but calling the racists cultural voters or white blue collar workers. Ed Rendell was jumped on when he told the truth that everybody knows unless they live under a rock somewhere, that they would not vote for a black man. People acted like they were so shocked so he backed down a little. He kept saying he knew his state. Carville kept saying that PA was racist and people tried to ignore it. Chris Matthews said the same thing, but what makes me sick to my stomach is they sit there and say "why can't he close the gap with the good old boys and girls. Well, tell me how do you change a racist heart, even the ones that claim they are not because they have a black friend.

I worked in an office for 8 years with people that didn't think they were racist but spewed out racist shit all the time. When they were called on it they would say, well you're different. You're not like the other black people. I would ask how are they. Well you know they're on welfare, they don't want to work. They're on drugs all the bullshit they learned from t.v. but I was okay because I worked there. I was the only black person they knew. They lived in a bubble. I had one co-worker that was married to a Mexican, but said if her girls married a black person she would be upset. Her husband was darker than mine who was black, but somehow in her mind Mexican was better than black and white was better than both. The less money people have the more racist they are because they feel the minorities are taking jobs away from them.

The worst thing is the people that turn a blind eye when it is happening. That let the racists win just so they can get what they want. This will continue to happen just as long as decent people close their eyes to what is happening. This wonderful Christian nation of what?

[dsc]

17. lets remember who jumped on Rendell

the very same people who are making this argument now.

[undeterred]

16. Pennsylvanians are racist. Big surprise.

Enjoying it, Hillary?

[aquart]

21. I love Obama supporters! Insulting an entire state!

You all just keep reminding me that Obama is a uniter not a divider. Hillary is the divisive one. Oh YEAH!

[undeterred]

26. Hillary doesn't care HOW she gets votes.

If half her votes are from white racists and the other half are from Republicans who want her to be the nominee, then she will think that's just wonderful.

[aquart]

20. Vote for Obama! It proves you're not a racist!

Of course, there's not a prayer in hell you'd be voting for him if he were half-Chinese, is there?

[ShortnFiery]

25. Why so bitter?

Ms. Inevitable hasn't closed the deal, thus delaying her ENTITLED coronation? :eyes:

[terrell9584]

27. in North Carolina, they pretty much haven't won statewide races

other than U.S. Senate, which were both in years that heavily favored regional Republicans, since the early to mid 1990s. They do this because candidates who are conservative on some things and liberal on others always win the primaries, and as such, they can't tar them as liberal and it ends up as eastern N.C vs. western N.C, and eastern N.C. still has more voters.

It also goes without saying that North Carolina hasn't been relevant in a Presidential primary for a while, so essentially, no pressure has been there on statewide candidates. Now it is. And the North Carolina GOP, which still at some level is the party of Helms, probably sees a chance here maybe to put a dent on what should be for the most part, a Democratic victory for most statewide offices except against Liddy Dole, and they probably see a chance to put a dent in the eastern N.C. shield, because Republicans only win statewide elections when they can peel off normally Democratic support in the east. Presidential candidates are good at it, but their statewide candidates have forgotten how.

The real interesting question is to see, how are the two gubernatorial candidates to react, because I think this may very well have blindsided them, because it was a low blow.