Obama can't Win the Big States

[Nederland]

A quick review of the primary contests so far demonstrates conclusively that Barack Obama has trouble beating Hillary Clinton in big swing states that are needed in order to win the general election. So far the only big state he has won is Illinois, his home state. In the vitally important swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Obama has lost to Hillary Clinton and in some cases like Pennsylvania, lost big. The argument then goes that Obama is not the candidate that the democratic party needs in order to win in the general election come November.

I suggest that we consider this argument on it's merits. Let's look at history and see what it tells us.

1980: During the primaries, Jimmy Carter wins Ohio and Florida while Kennedy wins Pennsylvania. In the general Carter loses all three.

1984: During the primaries, Walter Mondale wins Florida and Pennsylvania while Hart wins Ohio. In the general Mondale loses all three.

1988: During the primaries, Michael Dukakis wins Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. In the general he loses all three.

1992: During the primaries, Bill Clinton wins Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. In the general he loses Florida.

1996: Bill Clinton runs uncontested.

2000: During the primaries, Al Gore wins Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. In the general he loses Pennsylvania and Florida (*cough*).

2004: During the primaries, John Kerry wins Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. In the general he loses Ohio and Florida.


So what can we glean from all this? What does history tell us about how winning a state in a primary predicts the general election result?


Not a single fucking thing.


So let's all shut the fuck up when it comes to this whole "he can't win the big states" argument, ok?

[RememberWellstone]

1. He lost.

Case dismissed, the race is not over. case dismissed. He cannot close the deal with outspennding with your money 3 to 1. Case dismissed.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

4. And your Queen can't win without dumb old bigots. Case dismissed. nt

[MADem]

12. DUMB OLD BIGOTS? Yeah, that's HELPFUL. NT

[Jack Sprat]

34. The Obama crowd really knows how

to win friends and influence people, don't they? If you don't see things their way, you are a racist and bigot. The Clintons are racists, Geraldine Ferraro is a racist, and before they have a chance to pin it on me themselves, so am I. If they win the nomination, they are going to be a real hit in the general.

[wrando]

48. spoiled brats

The Obama people are just stomping their little hoofs, just childlike. If they win they gloat, when they lose they cry.

hard to get a handle on this behavior

bill from ct

[polpilot]

49. Hillary has the Pro-War, Bomb Arabs, Establishment voter. Can't deny that.

Obama has to continuing targeting peoplke who want change and ignore the war crowd. This is why he's won the delegate contest.

[wrando]

54. war crowd?

you are delusional

bill from ct

[RememberWellstone]

25. Nice.

Losing sucks, huh?

[mrreowwr_kittty]

30. Bigots suck, too. nt

[stratomagi]

60. I can't help but notice the irony that is your sig line.

[Craftsman]

41. Insulting people does not help to get their votes.

[SeaLyons]

46. ...

New flash: Obama cannot win the White House without the votes of "dumb old bigots". Furthermore, who is bigoted here?

[ProSense]

5. He lost PA. He's winning the primary, something

Hillary cannot do based on the only metric that matters: delegates.

[RememberWellstone]

21. He has not, I repeat has not

Won the nomination yet. It is not over, read the paper tomorrow.

[Endangered Specie]

24. But the math is pretty stubborn though...

Granted it may still be the 7th inning but even then people tend to leave if the game is 16-3, even if the losing team has men on 2nd and 1st with 1 out.

[Yurovsky]

50. Talking facts with HRC supporters at this point ...

is like asking a bear to shit in a toilet. Not going to get you anywhere. They are clearly delusional.

[chascarrillo]

10. 3 to 1? I'd like the dollar amounts, if you don't mind, with citation(s).

[ingac70]

13. where do you get this 3 to 1 spending shit?

"He outspent her. That is a fact. From the FEC reports, she paid out 22.7 Million, plus added 1.6 million to her debt load, so her total expendature is 24.3 million for march.

Obama paid out 30.6 Million with essentialy no change in debt load.

By the math he spent 25% more than she did. Wooo, he just drown her in spending didn't he.

Where the crap does this 3 times, 4 times crap come from?"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5629670

[babylonsister]

2. The only people saying that is from Clinton. But of course he can!

I venture to say, if he could re-do some states, they'd vote for him after the fiasco that is Clinton.

[NewHampshireDem]

3. Brilliant!

Except you forgot to cough over Ohio in 2004. Or cry. I know I did.

But, thanks for this post. Nothing like the facts.

[rocktivity]

6. Concentrating on big states didn't help us win the last two presidential elections.

Concentrating on all fifty states DID help us win Congress in 2006.

Sounds like DLC is trying and end run.

:headbang:
rocknation

[cascadiance]

31. If we just had "big states" picking the election, Gore and Kerry would have won in landslides...

If only big states counted in 2000 (only states with 20 or more delegates at stake):

Al Gore: 132
54 - California
33 - New York
23 - Pennsylvania
22 - Illinois


Bush: 78
32 - Texas
25 - Florida
21 - Ohio

or in 2004:

John Kerry: 128
55 - California
31 - New York
21 - Illinois
21 - Pennsylvania

Bush: 81
34 - Texas
27 - Florida
20 - Ohio

The bottom line is that we're in a 50 state rce, not a 7 state race ( much as Hillary would like to "lose" the Louisiana Purchase in a time machine trip to make us an 11 state union as another thread suggested.

Hillary has done MISERABLY in the other states compared to Obama. One would argue that Obama brings out support across many lines and that is why he won in the other states.

A big reason for Hillary winning the big states is that is where a big state party organization comes into play. A big state party organization is run by old timers with a lot of favors they "owe" the Clintons. That, along with name recognition, as much as anything had to do with Clinton getting more votes there. When many of these old timers see how the Clinton gang like Carville treats "traitors" like Bill Richardson, that makes for artificially higher totals in these states in my book.

[RBInMaine]

7. You're full of it. Can't compare primary to GE. Use common sense.

[Nederland]

11. Read my post again

That's my point. Comparing Primaries to the General Election is stupid.

[RBInMaine]

18. Sorry. Should have read further. (SARCASTIC post headings don't help.)

[ProSense]

15. That's what Hillary is doing: comparing primary to the GE. n/t

[scheming daemons]

8. 1992... Clinton lost Maryland primary.... won Maryland in the GE.....

There is NO CORRELATION to winning/losing a primary and winning/losing the GE in the same state.


You're running against a different candidate from a different party.

[Nederland]

14. Good example (nt)

[Skink]

9. Obama's real problem is when Hillary announces her independant bid.

[ingac70]

16. Where would she get the cash?

Not to mention she wouldn't be able to get on the ballot in several states because of sore loser rules.

[Skink]

19. Right back at ya.

Illuminati fixers.

[AtomicKitten]

17. It is ludicrous for people to compare the primary with the GE vis a vis electoral vote.

Apples and oranges.

Her argument in that regard is nonsense.

[grantcart]

20. Yeah well put and besides Obama won Alaska and that is the biggest lol

[ClericJohnPreston]

22. Sure....

Nice try. Obama is unelectable. Try shutting me up!

[DrBlix]

37. Talk about Crossing over a bridge to nowhere, republicans crossing over during primaries

Many republicans crossed over and voted for Obama during the primaries. Why? Because they are afraid because they know Hillary can beat them and win the GE.
.
These crossover votes inflated Obama's position. and drew votes away from Hillary.
.
In the general election those same republicans will cross back and vote a straight republican ticket.
.
Another Rovien move was to erase some of Hillary's base.. How? By making a "rock star" out of a highly educated man whose name just happens to be Barak Hussien Obama...more on they later.
.
Then selling this new found treasure like some Proctor and gamble product. When is the last time you turned on your TV in the morning hey noon or night that you didn't see Obama's face? A non stop free running commercial.
.
Bill and Hillary clinton have a strong releationship and voting block with African Americans. Some said that Bill Clinton was the first black president.
.
When he left office he was going to open an office in Manhatan but ran into trouble. He said well if I can't have an office here I'll open my office in Harlem which is what he did. The black community warmly welcomed him. He walks the streets of Harlem often.
.
They of course think Onama a black man can't win the GE and they could be right it does appear he will not win the battle ground
states.
.
It seems many of you have forgoten that we have 2 candidates running in the primary either one is better than 4 ro 8 years of the status quo or worse with McWAR.
.
All of this could backfire on them and if Obama gets the nomination and goes on to win the GE but don't count on it.
.
MSM will again use their powers to destroy Obama or attempt to, Red Riding Hoods republican grand mother will turn onto a big bad republican wolf right before your eyes
.
Don't be so quick to destroy Hillary she may be our nominee.
.
We need come together and keep the door open to both candidates and fight like hell for whoever runs in the GE.
.
Juz Sayin

[ShortnFiery]

59. Past tense: Bill and Hill will NOT EVER recover their rep within the African American Community ...

well save for "the elites." Bubba has played that "Southern Strategy" too well to be forgiven. In fact, it might not be a bad idea for him to relocate his office because, IMO, he's now persona non grata in Harlem. The Clintons are past any semblance of redemption within the "working and middle class" segments of The African American Community. The foregoing you can take to the bank. ;)

"Bill and Hillary Clinton have a strong relationship and voting block with African Americans." :rofl: :thumbsdown: <cue the theme song to "The Dukes of Hazard">

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

58. I'll give it a shot...

...plonk

[DearAbby]

23. Sure, Obama is going to lose

each and every state Hillary has previously won...:eyes:

[bobbert]

26. Alaska's the biggest state, who won that?

edit: this is to go along with your argument, was too hasty to read your post thoroughly

[bobbert]

27. Texas is 2nd biggest, Obama got more delegates there too

[LisaL]

29. It's too bad not many people live there.

[LisaL]

28. Well, your examples conclusively prove you can win state's primary

and lose in GE.
So, how does someone who lost the state in a primary would do in GE?
Hmm.

[Nederland]

32. Two examples

In 1992 Bill Clinton lost Maryland in the primary and won it in the general.

In 1968 Hubert Humphrey lost the Pennsylvania to Eugene McCarthy and won it in the GE.

[democracy1st]

33. good work guys

[Awsi Dooger]

35. Gore lost Pennsylvania?

Seems like I owe an offshore betting establishment some cash, plus 8 years of interest. I seem to remember cashing on Gore to win Pennsylvania.

Obviously you meant Ohio. But frankly, when you highlight a profanity in bold and throw around the word fact, but make a glaring factual error in the OP, it's not the greatest assignment of trust in your premise.:rofl:

Go ahead and edit. If I were a jerk I'd let the hour timetable pass.

Anyway, many of those primary wins were late in the cycle, after everything had been decided. They weren't seriously contested at the primary level, unlike this cycle, so your comparison is inept. Or, at best, it doesn't offer the sample size you pretend it does.

This time the progressive base of the party prefers someone who may not fare well in the vital swing states due to demographic weakness. It's not a throwaway issue. I experienced it in Nevada in '06, when the base chose to ignore the obvious tendencies of the state and nominated the more liberal Dina Titus for gov, instead of Jim Gibson, the favorite of the party establishment in the state.

You know what the theme of that early September period was, after the primary, on Las Vegas Gleaner and other Nevada progressive sites? (paraphrased) "How can anyone pretend we shouldn't have nominated Dina? She was superior during the campaign and you can't run scared by nominating someone who is supposedly more electable. We learned that lesson in '04 with Kerry."

Meanwhile, Titus was whipped by 4 points, versus a scandal plagued boob named Jim Gibbons. After election day the theme in the Las Vegas media was how could Democrats have blown it by nominating Titus, when it was clear Gibson fit the state better from a traditional demographic standpoint?

I think Obama can narrowly pull it out. Many of my most trusted friends, sharp on politics, disagree.

But this is what irks me about Obama: He was beneficiary of a massive gift by avoiding Florida. Put that stain on his primary resume and not only does it impact the delegate bottom line, but it flings additional rationale to Hillary's big state theme.

It's like a college football team in late season BCS contention, after dodging a road game in September via cancellation, and never forced to make it up. Massive underdog in that road game. The BCS voters would never fall for it but here we are, like nothing happened.

Actually it's not a perfect comparison because sports upsets are common, but Obama had no chance in Florida. Anyone who doesn't believe Obama would have been massacred in Florida, at any date on the calendar, probably held out hope for Obama winning tonight.

[Nederland]

43. Yup

You are correct. I swapped Ohio and Pennsylvania.

[DerekJ]

36. Great Analysis. Thanks.

K & R

[johnnydrama]

38. you can't base anything on the primary

Not a damn thing.

If you go by states, she is winning most of the big states, but he's winning many many more states than she is.

But when you break it down by state, he's winning all the big cities, and she's winning all the places the Republicans win in the GE.

So which is it.

He can't win the big states, or she can't win the big cities.

The answer is neither, it has nothing to do with the GE one iota.

So yes, not a single fucking thing.

Nobody ever has an answer when you ask them how she can win the GE without Philadelphia, and Austin, and San Francisco, and Cleveland?

That's because there is no answer.

[TragedyandHope]

39. Agreed, I think either Democrat will crush McCain

The General Election polls and theoretical Electoral College count doesn't mean anything right now, while we still have three candidates in the race. Once we select a nominee and unite to oppose McCain, the numbers will tell a different story. Americans are not happy about the last 8 years, the Economy or Iraq. The don't want the same old thing from McSame. The clear indicators are there in the record turnouts for our Democratic primaries. Back when the Rethugs were still in a contentious race, the Democratic primary turnout was double and triple the Republican turnout in many states.

After last night, Obama is still decisively in the lead across the country in the race for the nomination. Unless record numbers of Democrats betray their party in the General Election, he will combine the record numbers of Democratic votes and have a great chance to do extremely well in all big states where he has made a strong showing. The same goes for Hillary in her weaker states.

No doubt about it, we will take back our country in November.

[BzaDem]

40. FYI, Al Gore won Pennsylvania.

[futureliveshere]

42. Excellent. Reminds all Obama supporters NOT to lose perspective.

[TankLV]

44. Not only "can't" - but so far HASN'T!!!!

HA HA!!!

[Pryderi]

45. Democratic Governors in Ohio and PA will swing the election for Obama in GE

[FunkyLeprechaun]

47. A better Image would be this:

The 2004 Democratic Primary Results:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:2004_Democratic_Primary_Results.svg (the Blue states were won by Kerry)

Versus the 2004 Presidential Election:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:ElectoralCollege2004.svg (Blue states were won by Kerry)

We need to think about how Obama is running his campaign. Hillary is running on the big states whereas Obama's running a 50-state-strategy.

Which one would be most successful against McCain?

(It's Obama obviously)

[AllexxisF1]

51. This is getting annoying.

How on Earth does a primary between two people in the same party have anything to do with winning the state in the general election?


This is the most retarded argument I have ever heard. Democrats will vote for Democrats come the GE, unless of course if their nominee has been cheated.


Anyone who believes that Obama would not win California or NY in the GE needs to seriously be bitch slapped.

[Armstead]

52. My Gawd -- Pigs are flying.....I agree with Nederlander right out of the gate

I think what the "big swing state" argument overlooks is that the Democratic candidate will be the DEMOCRATIC candidate in November.

Win or lose, better or worse, the candidate is going to be seen as representing the Democratic leaning half of the nation in a bigger sense. Therefore, those who want a change from GOP conservatism are going to make their ultimate decision on those larger grounds.

Personality and "electability" will play a role, but much less so than in primaries. The more important factor will be whether enough independents or slightly partisan voters will choose the Democratic or Republican path in a larger sense.

[Pryderi]

53. K&R for the "Obama is Unelectable" thread readers.

[BigD_95]

55. AL Gore

won PA in the general???

[Terran]

56. Does anyone actually think he wouldn't carry California?

There is no way in hell California will vote for McCain. New York will not vote for McCain. Massachusetts will not vote for McCain. Etc., etc., etc.

[ShortnFiery]

57. HRC gets "a kick" out of disrespecting the small states: Listen-up SD and MT?!?

Who's the ELITIST now? :evilgrin: