The Democratic race is at the mercy of the superdelegates

[Endangered Specie]

CNN has a handy little delegate counter that you can use to predict the delegate count based on the election results in all states left and the remaining 'undecided' superdelegates.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/

So lets have fun with numbers:

Lets say Clinton manages to win every state left 70% to 30%, something even the most rabid Clinton supporter would only dream of, with that scenario (and you can duplicate this yourself) Obama could still win the nomination if 3/4 of the supers swing toward him.

Similarly, if every remaining state voted 60 to 40% for Obama, but all the remaining 311 supersswinged to Clinton, she wins. Remember this doesnt account for the fact that there are in fact ~800 supers and they can switch at anytime their support. So effectively, if all 800-or-so went for Clinton, even victories of 70% to 30% by Obama in all states remaining (something the biggest Obama fan would say is impossible) would not stop Clinton from winning, not even close!

Now, if the superdelegates should *choose* not to decide the race, by splitting 50-50, Obama is pretty much guaranteed to win. Even if NC breaks 50-50, all other states would need to swing at least 60-40 in favor of Clinton in order to keep Obama from winning outright (and 85-15 for her to win outright).

Keep in mind that many possible scenerios result in no majority and a brokered convention. Barring some massive swing of voter opinion that would be completly unprecidented, the superdelagetes have the say in this election. They could let the people decide, or decide themselves, or intentionally broker the convention.

With that in mind.... RE-ELECT GORE '08!! :P

[taught_me_patience]

1. If the Super delegates overrule

the pledged delegate count (and they have every right to), there will be race riots in the streets(literally). I will never call myself a democrat again.

[Endangered Specie]

2. Except that is the very reason why superdelegates were put there in the first place

to effectively decide any primary race that wasn't an outright blowout.

[taught_me_patience]

3. That's why I said they have a right to do it

but if you tell me that the superdelegates (that are mostly white) will choose a candidate that is behind in the pledged delegate count and fundraising because the other delegate is somehow "unelectable", there will be hell to pay. There will be a minority revolt.

[Endangered Specie]

4. Oh Im sure there would be hellish flak over it, but then again...

they ain't all gonna go vote Republican.

[lapfog_1]

6. Doesn't mean they will vote Republican-lite either...

I know I will never ever vote for HRC.

[taught_me_patience]

8. I believe there will be race riots

not very good p.r. for the democratic party. If it plays out like I described, then I will not vote. On edit: If Hillary wins fair (winning the pledged delegate count), which is possible but highly unlikely, then I will not hesitate to vote for her.

[BzaDem]

5. Unless Clinton wins the popular vote.

Then, that will be exactly what happens if the Supers give the nomination to Obama.

[writes3000]

7. What a ridiculous argument. This isn't a popular vote race.

And it's inherently dishonest for you to call it that.

If it's to be decided that way, then let's count ALL of the states that didn't have popular votes in the total.

Yep, that includes FL and MI but it also includes all of those caucus states as well.

PS - Obama would win that race.

[BzaDem]

9. I'm including all caucuses, primaries, and estimates of caucuses that don't release vote totals

except MI, where Obama wasn't on the ballot.

Right now, Obama is up 316,000 in that count. That is surmountable (not likely, but definately possible).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

You are the one being dishonest. Superdelegates can very well give the nomination to the one with the most popular votes. Those are the rules.