What this means: Barack's Message to Supporters

[NewHampshireDem]

NHDem --

Votes are still being counted in Pennsylvania, but one thing is already clear.

In a state where we trailed by more than 25 points just a couple weeks ago, you helped close the gap to a slimmer margin than most thought possible.

Thanks to your support, with just 9 contests remaining, we've won more delegates, more votes, and twice as many contests.

We hold a commanding position, but there are two crucial contests coming up -- voters will head to the polls in North Carolina and Indiana in exactly two weeks. And we're already building our organization in the other remaining states.

But it's clear the attacks are going to continue, and we're going to continue fighting a two-front battle against John McCain and Hillary Clinton.

I need your support right now. Please make a donation of $25:

https://donate.barackobama.com/whatthismeans

Thank you for all that you're doing to change our country.

Barack

He had me at NHDem! :)

[hogwyld]

1. Cool!

He's getting $100 on Thursday when I get paid.

[TTUBatfan2008]

2. Bunch of spin...

as expected. Clinton's spinning the "we were outspent and overcame" drivel and Obama's spinning the "we cut into a huge lead" drivel.

[NewHampshireDem]

3. Uh ... erm ... oh ... well ...

Did you forget to log out then log back in?

[TTUBatfan2008]

4. No, I call it like I see it...

not gonna BS on something like this. I got that email from Barack's campaign. I support him, but I'm not gonna BS when I see spin. The truth is somewhere in between the spin coming from both sides, as expected.

[NewHampshireDem]

5. Okay ... so tell me ... where do you see anything but *facts* in this email?

Spin? I see none. Facts? Yup.

[TTUBatfan2008]

6. Well, here's something that is up for debate...

"In a state where we trailed by more than 25 points just a couple weeks ago, you helped close the gap to a slimmer margin than most thought possible."

An 8-10 point loss looked great a couple weeks ago to many Obama supporters including me, but the polls did not necessarily support this big of a win for Clinton recently. Most of the polls were around 5-7 points. Unfortunately for Obama, she was up by 10 when the media stopped covering the vote-counting, so that is how they spun it for a few hours. It looks like he has gotten it under 9 points as the counting continues, but the media has already spun it in their own minds that he lost by double digits and that it was a bigger than expected win for Clinton. Obama himself said that he felt he would do better than people expect. Well, most expected something under 10 points anyway, so did he do better than they expected? Not really. 5 points would have been better than expected.

[NewHampshireDem]

7. Okay ...

A couple of things:

1. When everyone else wakes up in a few hours (where you are I assume ... here, everyone will be in bed in a few hours), it isn't going to be 10 points. The media will have the actual results. Anyone still paying attention will know. Anyone not paying attention, well, what are you going to do about those folks anyway. :shrug:

2. The polling was all over the place the past week--one outlier ever showing Obama winning PA. I wouldn't cite the polling as evidence that Obama didn't meet expectations--or even that he didn't exceed them. (I've been in the DKos camp with regard to PA: holding steady for a 10 point loss.) I read that statement as, 'When HRC was up 25 points, no one thought we could shave 15 (or more) points off her lead.'

3. Obama did exactly what he needed to do.

FWIW, here's the link to Kos's prediction:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/22/11647/8204/847/500552

[TTUBatfan2008]

8. Most importantly...

he bankrupted her. And he will continue to do so while she complains about his fundraising as if it's some kind of Mitt Romney, family fortune situation when it's not (she's actually the one loaning money to her campaign of course). He chopped the lead down so that it wasn't a total blowout but most importantly he did a similar ad blitz to Ohio and Texas so that she felt that she had to defend her turf so she spent a lot of time and money in Pennsylvania that she could have spent in other states. Her win will help her raise some funds no doubt, but Obama continues even stronger fundraising and he has less debt to pay than she does.

[NewHampshireDem]

9. Without a doubt ... good analysis

I would also add that I think the fundraising numbers over the next two weeks will tell the real story of the PA primary.

I agree that HRC's supporters are going to give her an infusion over the next 24-48 hours, but I think that Obama's grassroots support is going to swamp her once again. I don't see HRC's big donors throwing more good money after bad, but the small donations from Obama's supporters will keep flowing.

On to Indiana! :)

[TTUBatfan2008]

10. Don't you just love that counter on his site?

Damn thing keeps going up and up and up...and it counts NEW donors, not just donations (something that Hillary does on her site constantly). Obama's up to nearly 1.39 million and should easily reach 1.5 million by May 6th. Every fundraising or calling goal he's set has been blown away by his grassroots support. Every time they set a goal for a certain date, the supporters just blow right by it. Pretty amazing.