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Exit polls show Limbaugh's tricks DID NOT WORK ...

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Alhena Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:30 AM
Original message
Exit polls show Limbaugh's tricks DID NOT WORK ...
That's one consolation for me- this windbag doesn't get to crow according to exit polls.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_campaignplus/primary_exit_poll_glance;_ylt=AlbYcQaki2bfsqS068DSefKs0NUE

Most of those new Democrats were mobilized to come out for Obama, and they were nearly one-fifth of Obama's supporters. Even the former Republicans favored Obama over Clinton, largely invalidating rumors that Republicans would vote strategically in the Democratic primary in support of Clinton, hoping she would be easier to defeat in November.
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ima_sinnic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:32 AM
Response to Original message
1. thus, rather than R's turning out in huge no's in the GE to vote AGAINST HRC,
they will vote FOR Obama in the GE.

Which we all knew anyway, and which I am sure the superdelegates are considering very seriously.
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NJmaverick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:33 AM
Response to Original message
2. The Rush Limbaugh voters helped to improve hillary's victory
by 2%
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Alhena Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:35 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. Not according to that exit poll they didn't
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NJmaverick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:39 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. I saw one last night that put the numbers at 1.9%
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TheCowsCameHome Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:39 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. Big deal.
How many of those brain dead drones will forget to re-register as Republicans and f**k themselves when the GE comes?
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zbdent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:51 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. one of the nice things about the Rs crossing over
in these primaries where they could do it (not just PA) ... they're stuck with the R candidates in the local elections because they couldn't vote for them and get decent R candidates in place for the November GE ... heard enough about them whining about that problem ...
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TheCowsCameHome Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:53 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. That's what happens when you follow an idiot like Limpbaugh
Bwahahahahahaha.
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Yurovsky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:55 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. Huh?
what difference does it matter in the GE? If they're still registered D when the next primary season comes along, that's a different matter.
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baldguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:54 AM
Response to Original message
8. R's are crossing to vote for both Obama & Clinton.
The difference is the the Obama Republicans will vote for Obama in the fall. The ones who voted for Clinton will desert her.
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zalinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:02 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. That's wishful thinking
They crossed over to fuck with the dems, pure and simple. Obama's repubs are not more "honest" than Clinton's repubs. Get over yourself, you are not a mindreader.

zalinda
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TheCowsCameHome Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:05 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. Just like dems crossed over to sink Romney's chances.
and give them McCain.............
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NorthCarolina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:03 AM
Response to Original message
11. I think it is easy to calculate the amount of Republican support the candidate got
and the polling question to go by is

The percentage of supporters that will vote for McCain if their candidate is not the nominee.

Assuming that most all REAL Democrats supporting either candidate will vote Democrat in the GE regardless of the candidate, then you simply assume the Candidate with the least "defectors" to be the one least benefited by Republican faux-support. Take that candidates percentage as the base percentage for Democrats in general and subtract it from the defector percentage of the other candidate. The difference would likely give a pretty good reflection of the percentage of faux-support from Republican shenanigans.

So lets take a look see:

Asked of Obama voters: If the presidential election is between Clinton and McCain, for whom are you more likely to vote?

Clinton 68%
McCain 16%
Don't know 16%

Asked of Clinton voters: If the presidential election is between Obama and McCain, for whom are you more likely to vote?

Obama 56%
McCain 26%
Don't know 18%

First, we can eliminate the "Don't know" as statistically insignificant in this race since 2% difference can be considered within MOE of most polls.

Now, take the 16% defection rate associated with Obama supporters and assume it to be the base percentage of Democrats that may defect, and subtract that from the percentage figure for the opponent to get the percentage of likely Republican shill voters.

Therefore:

Clinton Defectors - 26% minus Obama Defectors - 16% = Faux-Republican Support ~10% for HRC

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