Tell me about Indiana

[julialnyc]

Does anyone have a good description of how it looks in Indiana?

What are the polls saying, what are the demographics, etc........

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. It's More OH And PN Than OH And PN

Here's the demographics:


http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/18000.html

[nevergiveup]

2. Obama will have to work hard

to win Indiana. The only plus for him is that it borders Illinois. Correct me if I am wrong but I believe the KKK was born in Indiana. This is "W" country especially south of Indianapolis. I have some relatives in rural Indiana and they make my conservative southern Illinois relatives look like left-wing radicals. The Obama campaign seems to be fairly confident that he will do well here. Maybe there is something in their internal polling I am missing.

[democraticinsurgent]

5. Polls have been favorable

Last one had a 5% Obama lead but very dangerously, 19% undecided. If, as in Pa, the undecided vote breaks for Hillary, it's not good.

I think underlying racism has got to be a major factor here, as it no doubt has been in Ohio, Pa, etc. We Hoosiers are a very traditional lot, as a whole.

I live in Indy which is increasingly Democratic as the wealthy move to the collar counties. Obama will do really well in the cities but will have a tough time in suburbs and rural Indiana. He does have a nice advantage in the northwest where the Chicago media market reaches.

One thing that also works in his favor is that I don't think there is a great love of Hillary here. Yet so many women I know will vote for Hillary and I can't understand how or why, except that she's a woman.

Tossup, definitely, though I think a must-win for Obama now. If he doesn't win, Hillary will never shut up.

[MadBadger]

3. Northwest Indiana shares a major media market with Chicago.

[boobooday]

4. Born and raised a Hoosier -- just left again last year

Wish I was there to vote in an election in which it would finally matter! Now I'm in Florida. Yeah.

One important thing to remember is that Hoosiers are pretty independent. Only adopted daylight savings time a couple of years ago. Lots of college campuses, a couple of large urban areas that lean very Democratic. Really burned by NAFTA, including my father, who got one more paycheck from Indiana Glass as he packed up their equipment to move to Mexico after 150+ years of continuous operation in my hometown.


EDIT: They might be bitter. . .

[democraticinsurgent]

7. Good point about independence

Hoosiers do not like people telling them what to think, or taking them for granted. You can ask former Indy mayor Bart Peterson about that, who was turned out on his ear last fall for simply not paying attention during a property tax crisis.

If Hillary gets too shrill, she will turn people off. Oh, she's already too shrill, but it seems to be working for her. Lord knows why.

[julialnyc]

6. Is it an open or closed primary?

[democraticinsurgent]

9. Open

Unfortunately...you do have to "declare" but that's about it.

[democraticinsurgent]

11. Other contested democratic races

adding to the incentive of Repubs to switch is that there is a major battle for the D nomination to face the unopposed/incumbent Gov. Mitch Daniels, and a heavily contested congressional primary race in the 7th district (Indy) where the late Julia Carson's grandson won a special election in March but is facing two very well funded challengers and two more that are also splitting up the vote. That race is a mess and I wouldn't be surprised to see the R's wanting to meddle there.

[Indenturedebtor]

8. I'm from Indianapolis

Moved away 3 years ago but was just back for Pesach last weekend. My inlaws (both my wifes and brotherinlaw's families) are all for Obama. But I'll be shocked if more than two of them get off their asses and vote.

Obama will win Bloomington, Gary, and Indianapolis hands down no contest. The smaller towns will likely go Clinton, and there are a lot of them... However Lafayette and any other town with a University will at least be close if not a slight win for Obama.

My wife and I have been calling Indiana for Obama for months now. We just know that he will win there. Oh and people there have hated the Clintons for years... this is a red state remember?

[Tatiana]

10. It is pretty close, but I notice a gradual movement towards Obama

Areas like Terre Haute, Bloomington, and Ft. Wayne look really good for him. Indianapolis will be like Philly. Rural areas will be tough (like Ohio).

[Psst_Im_Not_Here]

12. Born and Raised Hoosier

Indiana is half Kentucky, half Illinois. Like Kansas in many ways, votes against it's best interests most of the time. Rural areas in the north are much like Kansas, rural areas of the south are much like Kentucky. Major metropolises are Indianapolis, Ft. Wayne and Evansville. Larger towns in the north are close to Chicago and tend to be more progressive than the larger towns of the south.

African Americans are mostly in the major cities, but bedroom towns like Merrilville, South Bend and New Albany could be a major factor. The college educated are mostly in the cities and college towns, but, Indiana suffers from "brain drain". The college educated Hoosiers, don't stay around and those that do are in the cities or universities.

Older Hoosiers are concentrated in rural areas and middle cities like Marion, where the population is very elderly. The young flock away from cities like that to larger cities close by like Ft. Wayne and Indy.

The 4 major Universities are Indiana University in Bloomington, Purdue University in West Lafayette, Notre Dame in South Bend and Ball State University in Muncie. The smaller schools are Indiana State in Terre Haute (which incidentally has voted for the winner in every presidential race including Al Gore!), Butler in Indianapolis, and some others.

Middle cities like Kokomo, Marion and northern cities like Gary and Ft. Wayne have been hit hard by the demise of the steel and auto industries. High populations of unions and bitterness abounds.

If I were the Obama campaign, I'd focus primarily on the Indianapolis, Bloomington, West Lafayette, Gary, Evansville, New Albany and Ft. Wayne areas with a massive GOTV and voter registration.

[mckeown1128]

13. Demographic is like Ohio and PA...

but with the silver lining of a much younger population when compared to PA. So he should do better then he did in PA... but who knows by how much.

[doodadem]

14. My parents are in southern Indiana

My mom has always been a yellow dog democrat, but I keep having the same argument with her: "No, Mom--Obama is NOT a Muslim, and why would it matter if he was?!" Her latest "authority" is knowing someone who knows someone that lives "right up the street from the Obamas, and sees them going to a Muslim church every Sunday". Don't confuse her with the facts. It's driven me nuts my whole life.

She was gung-ho for Hillary in the beginning because she idolizes Bill Clinton, but has become disenchanted with her lately. Now she's saying, "I really liked Huckabee. If McCain runs with him, I might have to vote for him." Of course, that set off a round of, "Are you out of your MIND?!! I will come back to Indiana and kick your butt!" On and on and on.

The point here is, she says all of her little old lady friends are saying the same thing in southern Indiana--they will never vote for Obama. They just don't like him. Having graduated from a high school there where they still hung blacks on the courthouse lawn in the early part of the last century, I can tell you that racism still bubbles merrily along right beneath the surface, and intolerance is a way of life.

[Psst_Im_Not_Here]

16. My parents live there too

My mother is a socially conservative, enviornmentally aware, independent. Father is an old school Eisenhower Republican. Both would rather cut off their arms and legs than vote for Hillary. They hate McSame and feel duped by GWB. Mom will sit out the election and dad will go and vote for Obama just to get even. My mother has NEVER not voted and is the reason all 3 of her kids are active civically. I'm still working on her! She still shakes her head and asks how she raised 3 liberals! Bwahaha.

[barack the house]

15. This one is compliation of all the polls averaged..

http://www.pollster.com/08-IN-Dem-Pres-Primary.php