Why Hillary Lost PA?

[kentuck]

Or how Obama won PA? Pennsylvania was the last really large state. Over 2 million Democrats would vote in that primary. Hillary needed a large win. Just a few weeks ago, most polls said she was ahead by 20-25% over Obama.

Hillary’s only hope for victory was to win the popular vote. In the end, she won PA by over 200,000 votes. A substantial victory but not enough to add FL to her totals and claim the lead in the popular vote. By cutting the lead in half, it was a victory of sorts for Barack Obama. He prevented her from playing her hole card, the FL popular votes.

Now, she must go to North Carolina and compete as the underdog. It is possible, according to some pollsters, that she could lose all the votes that she gained in PA in the NC primary? With the remaining small states, it would be virtually impossible for her to win the popular vote or the delegate majority.

PA was not a victory for Hillary. It was the final nail in the coffin. If she had held on to her lead of 20-25%, she could have claimed that she was now leading in the popular vote. That dream is now gone. It is just a matter of time before this reality sinks in.

[Indenturedebtor]

1. Yes she's done

She's been done for months. PA was just her trying to get another crowbar to try to steal the election with.

I wish she would act like a Democrat and drop our gracefully like Edwards did. She was my last choice from the beginning... something just always seemed off about her. Now I know why :shrug:

Quit spending Dem money to repuke ends and DROP OUT NOW!

[kentuck]

2. NC could hammer the lid on the coffin.

Only then will Hillary and her supporters see that there is no way to win. No way to win.

[Independent-Voter]

6. I can't wait. We already voted in NC, but I'll be working the polls that morning

and hoisting a few to Veruca's demise for good that evening. Obama is absolutely kicking her ass down here.

[Emillereid]

9. I concur. She is wrecking our chances in November. Her tactics are despicable!

[helderheid]

3. Check it out:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5642811&mesg_id=5642811

[kentuck]

4. It is not a great victory for Hillary.

In fact, it is a defeat.

[helderheid]

5. My theory is she knew she'd win PA and is hoping to get enough donations to bail her out of debt.

[kentuck]

7. You could be right?

She is definitely focusing on funds....even in her "victory" speech.

[nolabels]

18. My theory it's about things other than money

If she decided to quit and then asked if people would help her pay off the bills......

Of course it's not about the money, it's about having the power (and having the power to screw people over that crossed her just for starters).

I can assure that idea about 'I will get mine or nobody will have any' is alive and flowing

[SeaLyons]

8. Dream on...

She thumped Obama in PA, she'll do it in IN, and she'll give him a run in NC. She's on her way.
And FL and MI will be seated, you can count on that.


Go Hillary!!

[kentuck]

11. Hillary will not bring up FL until it fits her plan

to claim the popular vote victory. It's clear what her strategy is and you should be able to see it by now.

[SeaLyons]

15. her strategy is to win...

that's a good thing!!

[nichomachus]

16. What are you smoking and where do you get it.

I need me some of that stuff.

Hillary "thumped" no one in PA. She basically blew a 25-point lead. This is what the supers and the money handlers look at. They don't put on rose-colored glasses to make their decisions. When someone blows a huge lead, their campaign is in trouble.

A 10-point edge in PA was necessary to even make her a viable candidate for the rest of the primary -- and there's some doubt she even got that, unless you're willing to round 8.6 up to 10.

If this were a winner-take-all contest, then all she would have needed was one vote more than Obama. But that's not what the primary is about. Saying she "won" or "thumped Obama" is just silly.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

27. And you know exactly what every SD is thinking?

[nichomachus]

33. I never said I did

But I know politicians. I imagine the supers fall along several lines. Ultimately, each and every one of them is looking out for himself or herself. However, I know how politicians calculate. I've been dealing with them up close and personal for over 40 years. And they're not led astray by campaign slogans or even silly talking heads. They don't look at the PA results and say "oooh, Hillary got 8.6 point more than Obama, so she's the one." They see her blowing a 30-point lead, they see a downward trend, they see her going negative, and they see her broke, and they can calculate her chances of pulling it out with the few states left -- somewhere between zero and none. All the hip-hip-hooray talk from Hillary supporters doesn't influence them in the least. They can calculate these things in their head.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

28. And you know exactly what every SD is thinking?

[SeaLyons]

41. ...

I was quoting CNN when I said she "thumped" Obama. That's the term they used. Go figure.

She didn't blow a 25 point lead. I believe her lead was 20. He outspent her 3-1, spent 11 million and still couldn't win. That's what the SD's will be looking at and worrying about. He can't win a swing state.

She was triumphant. She Won, like in she's a WINNER!!

Go Hillary!!

[helderheid]

17. see post 3

[demwing]

36. Honestly, Congrats on her victory

but a thump?

She lost half her margin in a month, despite the fact that he is a relatively unknown, junior senator; despite the fact that she hit him with every conceivable piece of garbage politics; despite the fact that Pennsylvania was supposed to be Hillary's perfect storm of demographics, and despite the fact that her husband--the most popular democratic president in a generation--campaigned his ass off for her.

Hillary had EVERYTHING going for her in Pennsylvania, and though she won, it was an empty win, because it did not move her ANY closer toward winning the primary.

In fact, she came out of this damaged - Hillary is less likable, less trustable, and less electable coming out of PA than she was going in.

No one can deny she won the battle, but who can deny that in doing so, she has all but lost the war?

[SeaLyons]

40. No,

she came out a winner. He out spent her 3-1. She was triumphant!

I'm not sure the country is looking for a nice likable guy for a President. I think the country wants a President to go to work for them. Hillary is that person, she will win the "war".

[demwing]

43. Care to back that "3-to-1" number up?

I don't agree. I think you're saying it because you heard someone else that you trust say it. Sorry, but show proof or retract it.

[kentuck]

42. You are right...

She came out of PA worse than she went in. She has a bigger hill to climb now. If she had beaten Obama by 400,000 votes, her argument to count FL votes would have been much stronger. However, if Obama wins NC by 200,000 votes, which is a possibility, then she is back to square one and she has no argument to make for the nomination. No popular vote. No delegate lead. Nothing.

[kid a]

10. hey kentuck!

(fun with typos)

Hasn't she been playing the "hole" card all along?
(cheap, sexist comment...sorry)

[kentuck]

13. You are right.

That is cheap and sexist. :-)

[Austinitis]

12. I bet she includes Michigan. It muddies the water in the news, and even if she can't keep it up

she'll have gotten a boost that can push her to where she needs to be to take the popular vote with only Florida.



Besides, there are good arguments for counting Michigan. And if the Obama people complain she can say "well let's look at this pledged-delegate thing you're pushing."

[Innocent Smith]

19. I already seen it claimed that she leads in the popular vote

They were including both Florida and Michigan to give her a roughly 100,000 vote lead. I didn't look at any of the actual numbers to see if they were stating the numbers correctly, but you are right that it does muddy the water in the news.

[kentuck]

26. MI and FL are not going away.

That is why the popular vote is so important.

[quakerboy]

37. I don't see it

If you count every vote cast in every contest(FL, MI, caucuses, states, not states, etc) Obama is up 302K. If you are generous and give him the uncommitted in MI(fair, I think, if you are going to give her MI to begin with) he is up 541K. If you just count states, without FL and MI, he is up 699.9K.

At least thats what my little homemade nerd sheet tells me, given every vote and caucus referenced back to the state websites and the state democratic party websites.

[Ganja Ninja]

14. I've been trying to point it out all morning.

If this was a prize fight you could sum up her victory as being saved by the bell. She lost votes in PA the longer she campaigned there. If she had started out ahead and then built an even bigger lead we could say she clobbered him but that simply wasn't the case. She held on after squandering a big lead. "Double digits" does not include the numbers after the decimal point.

[gsaguyCLW54]

20. Thank God for SD's....you'll be praising them January 2009

[LSK]

21. according to CNN she got 12 delegates yesterday

Not even close to enough.

[liberaldem4ever]

22. I don't care how it's spinned-she isn't going to win

There is no way, no how. Why the SDs are dragging this out and helping the Repubs I don't get. :shrug:

[kentuck]

23. She knows she is not going to win the delegate votes.

Her only hope is to win the popular vote. If she had won PA by 450,000 votes, all that you would hear to day is how Hillary is ahead in the popular vote and that is what the SD's will have to decide on when they choose the nominee. As it went, she did not get that magic number to permit her to claim FL and must have been disappointed with the outcome in PA. Where does she pick up these votes between now and the last primary? North Carolina? Indiana? She will be lucky to break even and FL will be irrelevant even if the votes are given to Hillary. That's the game. Checkmate.

[BigDDem]

24. Winning is the new losing for Team Barry

Congrats to the Patriots on their Super Bowl XLII win!!

[kentuck]

25. Apples and oranges...

Hillary wanted to and expected to win by a much larger margin, then she could say she was ahead in the popular vote. Obama prevented that by cutting her lead in half. Call it a Hillary victory if you like but in the big picture, it was a devastating defeat.

[BigDDem]

31. In your version of reality Obama won,

why didn't he give a victory speech last night for the
A&F boys?

[kentuck]

34. Because I wasn't advising him...

:-)

[BigDDem]

35. Perhaps you should notify him that he won

but not while he's eating his waffle.

[demwing]

38. Hey look a forest! No, stop looking at that tree. There's a whole FOREST here!

No one is claiming that Obama won Pennsylvania. We are simply pointing out that Clinton's win in the state won't help her win the nomination. In fact, she comes out of PA more damaged than she went it.

Congrats on the win. I hope she recovers from it soon :)

[stillcool]

29. Those damn numbers!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5639954&mesg_id=5639954

GOBAMA!!!

[rodeodance]

30. Have fun barking at the moon!!

[kentuck]

32. Explain where Hillary is going to win?

Where is she going to get the popular vote or the delegates?? PA was her last hope. If she had won by 1.4 million to 850,000 thousand for Obama, she would still be in the race. As of today, it does not look good for Hillary. Give us your sunshine report.

[Scurrilous]

39. K & R

:thumbsup: