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Okay -- Here's the scoop on the conflicting numbers regarding PA

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JMDEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 10:55 AM
Original message
Okay -- Here's the scoop on the conflicting numbers regarding PA
PA state website most likely goofed on Lancaster county, reporting several thousand more votes for Obama than actually occurred. CNN apparently has the right numbers.

I did some math last night, and at the time, Hillary had a 9.5% lead over Obama. But two heavily leaning Obama counties hadn't fully reported (97%). My rough math estimates indicate that when all the votes are counted, Hillary will have won the election by 54.5% to 45.5% -- 9% difference -- assuming the uncounted votes go the same way as the counted votes in those two counties.

So my guess is the final totals will be Hillary by 9%.

Make what you want of this -- because I am an Obama supporter, the 1% difference between 9 and 10% is important to me because it means Hillary did not break the psychological "double digit" win barrier. To others of you out there, it may not make much difference at all.
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Triana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 10:59 AM
Response to Original message
1. 9% is NOT 10% any way you look at it. (n/t)
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JMDEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:00 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. That's how I view it too. :)
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City Lights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:04 AM
Original message
This isn't a sporting event, so Clinton's score should not be handicapped.
Period.
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Ned_Devine Donating Member (996 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:00 AM
Response to Original message
3. They've already claimed 10%
sort of like the way they claimed they won Texas
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Independent-Voter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Her idiot supporters suck at math - what do you expect?
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redqueen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:02 AM
Original message
Don't excuse their lies with ignorance. They are LIARS like their candidate.
:puke:
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October Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. Another ugly post about democrats
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Kittycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. Are you willing to accept 9% as fact? Or believe the lie of 10%?
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Ned_Devine Donating Member (996 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #10
15. We should let the networks know the facts then
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Kittycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 12:02 PM
Response to Reply #15
34. I sent 6 emails & 4 webforms to the MSNBC/NBC already this morning.
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polmaven Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #10
32. I will be willing to believe
whatever percentage is certified by the State of Pennsylvania when the full vote is finally counted.

Does that sound reasonable, or should we just go by the DU Obama supporter certification?
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Kittycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 12:03 PM
Response to Reply #32
35. I'm fine with the certified vote - but with 99+% in I'm following the State of PA until then.
Anything else is just undemocratic and a lie being used as spin.
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polmaven Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. I really think we should all just calm down
and wait for the final certification. Who knows....maybe it will turn out to be 2%, or a 20 % Obama win, or a 30% Clinton win. Lets just wait and see.

I know, I know....HILLARY IS LYING!!!!!!

But you, and some of your compatriots are going to burst some blood vessels!
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Kittycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 01:07 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. I'm more concerned about the Media, not Hillary.
She's already stated she'll do (and shown she'll say) anything to win. So for her, truthfulness is just something one could hope to obtain in a perfect world. For all I care, she can stand there and say she won by 150% - she's irrelevant, it doesn't matter. It's the media, and truth in reporting, that I care about.
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TexasProgresive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #3
14. Sounds like more of that fuzzy math -fearless leader* talked
about in a so called debate a few years ago.
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City Lights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:01 AM
Response to Original message
4. So CNN is more accurate than the official site of the state of PA.
I find no comfort in that. :scared:
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BlueCaliDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. I'm with you on this. eom
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JMDEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #4
13. Apparently so...
But just one mistake -- Lancaster county. But this isn't final yet.

On the other hand, we have NO IDEA what really happened inside those machines, now do we? But that is a whole different topic.

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City Lights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:31 AM
Response to Reply #13
28. Yeah, I guess we'll just have to take Fast Eddie's word on those machines.
I don't get why any state continues to use 'em.
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Cant trust em Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #4
23. That was really strange to me.
Where does CNN get their numbers if not from the state?
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City Lights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:26 AM
Response to Reply #23
26. Karl Rove?
:hide:
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Austinitis Donating Member (726 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:03 AM
Response to Original message
7. She already broke it in the media. And when we're talking about psychological barriers
it doesn't matter whether the initial news story was correct. True and slightly false stories have the same impact on public perceptions.
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October Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:03 AM
Response to Original message
8. All this parsing.


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Kittycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. So you want to believe in and spread lies? It's not parsing, it's about accurate reporting.
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stillcool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:08 AM
Response to Reply #8
16. I think it's math.
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City Lights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #8
19. Actual results is parsing in your world?
Wow. Now I've heard everything.
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Abacus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:15 AM
Response to Reply #8
21. It's moot
I thought 9.4% vs 10% was parsing, but I think 9.0% vs 10% is noteworthy. Regardless, the perception is that she has won by 10% and it is unlikely that anything will change that.
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Cant trust em Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #8
24. welcome to American politics.
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liberaldem4ever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:05 AM
Response to Original message
11. Thanks JMDEM
I can't believe the MSM is getting away with reporting the total wrong. They probably won't mention it when the final total isn't 10%. They want to keep this insanity going as long as possible since it boosts their ratings. :puke:
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Innocent Smith Donating Member (466 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:09 AM
Response to Original message
17. Thanks that makes sense
I was wondering why both CNN and Fox had the same numbers and they were different from the PA website.
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marlakay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:10 AM
Response to Original message
18. huffingtonpost has it 9.2
but anything is better than ten...this reminds me so much of texas they used early results to spin spin spin just like saying she had double digits all night on tv when it isn't.
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:11 AM
Response to Original message
20. 9 = 10 if you're dodging sniper fire.
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:16 AM
Response to Original message
22. THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT!!!
I've never used the caps lock before in a post, but this really is critical.

Hillary and Co are spinning this as a double-digit lead. They're constantly
saying "double-digit" lead, and it is NOT!

It's nine percent, and there really is a big psychological difference between a
nine-percent win and a "double-digit win."

I don't expect this to be sorted out--or more importantly, cleared up--any time soon.

Just like Texas---the spin was in--and for some reason, it took forever to sort out
Texas and for the truth to come in. When the truth finally came in, that Obama
and Clinton were virtually tied in the Texas delegate count--it was too late. She
used Texas to declare some kind of smashing Ohio/Texas blowout.

She parlayed that puffery into justification for staying in the race--just as she's
doing with PA. Touting a "double digit win" is better than the truth--9 points.

In a few days, when it's clear that it was nine points--the media will have moved on.

The question to ask is---how does Clinton manage to finagle situations that help her
like this??? Does she get the party apparatus in each state to delay Obama-favored
counties? Does she press the media to tout the numbers that she wants, and then ignore
the realities? We barely heard anything about the final Texas results.

So sick of this malarkey.
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90-percent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #22
25. $900,000
dont make you a millionaire.

-90% jimmy
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mrreowwr_kittty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:29 AM
Response to Reply #22
27. On Super Tuesday she won Arizona by 12 points.
By the time all the counting was done a week later, the margin was down to 7%.

But you never heard anything about that.
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writes3000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:38 AM
Response to Reply #22
30. That's exactly what happens. And her peeps march out the talking pts which the MSM parrots.
The media knows what they're doing. But it helps keep the story alive.
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Hutzpa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #22
31. Very valid points raised,
the Clinton's are meddling with the votes and there are people helping her,
something definitely is wrong, there is some type of conniving going on with
the Clinton's and the media including the Republicans.

Something does x(

and the sooner Obama gets in the trenches the better this will be.
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CTyankee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:44 AM
Response to Reply #22
33. I get your point but the real difference is that she didn't win by just 5 points.
Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 11:45 AM by CTyankee
This race was handicapped by the media 24/7, esp. in the final days, and people weren't drawing lines at 9.2. They were using the 5 pt. mark as dooming her. So getting even a 9 looks good by comparison. I'm not taking any side here, just remembering what I kept hearing over and over on the tv day in and day out leading up to yesterday's vote...
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Hutzpa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 11:36 AM
Response to Original message
29. Understand this,
the media does not do dumb things...they make calculating move, so, IMO
it must have been a deliberate move to manipulate the votes and call it
as a 10% win.

All these polls that you see flying around is for a reason, its there so
when they report the votes people would not be suspicious of any wrong
doing.

The Clinton's started this whole mess and perfected it with a two term Bush
Presidency.

Thats why I believe strongly Obama needs to get in there and root these
mofo out.

I believe that....
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pdx_prog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 01:17 PM
Response to Original message
38. This is all a moot point
Has anyone actually heard anyone with any expertise in this area claim that Hillary can win this thing at all? No....

She has a little momentum, but it's not going to last. Nothing happened last night that was unexpected.
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