JMDEM
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Wed Apr-23-08 10:55 AM
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Okay -- Here's the scoop on the conflicting numbers regarding PA |
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PA state website most likely goofed on Lancaster county, reporting several thousand more votes for Obama than actually occurred. CNN apparently has the right numbers.
I did some math last night, and at the time, Hillary had a 9.5% lead over Obama. But two heavily leaning Obama counties hadn't fully reported (97%). My rough math estimates indicate that when all the votes are counted, Hillary will have won the election by 54.5% to 45.5% -- 9% difference -- assuming the uncounted votes go the same way as the counted votes in those two counties.
So my guess is the final totals will be Hillary by 9%.
Make what you want of this -- because I am an Obama supporter, the 1% difference between 9 and 10% is important to me because it means Hillary did not break the psychological "double digit" win barrier. To others of you out there, it may not make much difference at all.
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Triana
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Wed Apr-23-08 10:59 AM
Response to Original message |
1. 9% is NOT 10% any way you look at it. (n/t) |
JMDEM
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:00 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
2. That's how I view it too. :) |
City Lights
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:04 AM
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This isn't a sporting event, so Clinton's score should not be handicapped. |
Ned_Devine
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:00 AM
Response to Original message |
3. They've already claimed 10% |
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sort of like the way they claimed they won Texas
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Independent-Voter
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:02 AM
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5. Her idiot supporters suck at math - what do you expect? |
redqueen
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:02 AM
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Don't excuse their lies with ignorance. They are LIARS like their candidate. |
October
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #5 |
9. Another ugly post about democrats |
Kittycat
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #9 |
10. Are you willing to accept 9% as fact? Or believe the lie of 10%? |
Ned_Devine
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #10 |
15. We should let the networks know the facts then |
Kittycat
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:02 PM
Response to Reply #15 |
34. I sent 6 emails & 4 webforms to the MSNBC/NBC already this morning. |
polmaven
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #10 |
32. I will be willing to believe |
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whatever percentage is certified by the State of Pennsylvania when the full vote is finally counted.
Does that sound reasonable, or should we just go by the DU Obama supporter certification?
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Kittycat
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Wed Apr-23-08 12:03 PM
Response to Reply #32 |
35. I'm fine with the certified vote - but with 99+% in I'm following the State of PA until then. |
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Anything else is just undemocratic and a lie being used as spin.
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polmaven
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Wed Apr-23-08 01:00 PM
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36. I really think we should all just calm down |
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and wait for the final certification. Who knows....maybe it will turn out to be 2%, or a 20 % Obama win, or a 30% Clinton win. Lets just wait and see.
I know, I know....HILLARY IS LYING!!!!!!
But you, and some of your compatriots are going to burst some blood vessels!
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Kittycat
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Wed Apr-23-08 01:07 PM
Response to Reply #36 |
37. I'm more concerned about the Media, not Hillary. |
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She's already stated she'll do (and shown she'll say) anything to win. So for her, truthfulness is just something one could hope to obtain in a perfect world. For all I care, she can stand there and say she won by 150% - she's irrelevant, it doesn't matter. It's the media, and truth in reporting, that I care about.
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TexasProgresive
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #3 |
14. Sounds like more of that fuzzy math -fearless leader* talked |
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about in a so called debate a few years ago.
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City Lights
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:01 AM
Response to Original message |
4. So CNN is more accurate than the official site of the state of PA. |
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I find no comfort in that. :scared:
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BlueCaliDem
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
6. I'm with you on this. eom |
JMDEM
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
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But just one mistake -- Lancaster county. But this isn't final yet.
On the other hand, we have NO IDEA what really happened inside those machines, now do we? But that is a whole different topic.
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City Lights
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:31 AM
Response to Reply #13 |
28. Yeah, I guess we'll just have to take Fast Eddie's word on those machines. |
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I don't get why any state continues to use 'em.
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Cant trust em
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:18 AM
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23. That was really strange to me. |
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Where does CNN get their numbers if not from the state?
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City Lights
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:26 AM
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Austinitis
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:03 AM
Response to Original message |
7. She already broke it in the media. And when we're talking about psychological barriers |
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it doesn't matter whether the initial news story was correct. True and slightly false stories have the same impact on public perceptions.
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October
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:03 AM
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Kittycat
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #8 |
12. So you want to believe in and spread lies? It's not parsing, it's about accurate reporting. |
stillcool
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:08 AM
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City Lights
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #8 |
19. Actual results is parsing in your world? |
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Wow. Now I've heard everything.
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Abacus
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:15 AM
Response to Reply #8 |
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I thought 9.4% vs 10% was parsing, but I think 9.0% vs 10% is noteworthy. Regardless, the perception is that she has won by 10% and it is unlikely that anything will change that.
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Cant trust em
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #8 |
24. welcome to American politics. |
liberaldem4ever
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:05 AM
Response to Original message |
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I can't believe the MSM is getting away with reporting the total wrong. They probably won't mention it when the final total isn't 10%. They want to keep this insanity going as long as possible since it boosts their ratings. :puke:
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Innocent Smith
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:09 AM
Response to Original message |
17. Thanks that makes sense |
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I was wondering why both CNN and Fox had the same numbers and they were different from the PA website.
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marlakay
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:10 AM
Response to Original message |
18. huffingtonpost has it 9.2 |
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but anything is better than ten...this reminds me so much of texas they used early results to spin spin spin just like saying she had double digits all night on tv when it isn't.
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helderheid
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:11 AM
Response to Original message |
20. 9 = 10 if you're dodging sniper fire. |
CoffeeCat
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:16 AM
Response to Original message |
22. THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT!!! |
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I've never used the caps lock before in a post, but this really is critical.
Hillary and Co are spinning this as a double-digit lead. They're constantly saying "double-digit" lead, and it is NOT!
It's nine percent, and there really is a big psychological difference between a nine-percent win and a "double-digit win."
I don't expect this to be sorted out--or more importantly, cleared up--any time soon.
Just like Texas---the spin was in--and for some reason, it took forever to sort out Texas and for the truth to come in. When the truth finally came in, that Obama and Clinton were virtually tied in the Texas delegate count--it was too late. She used Texas to declare some kind of smashing Ohio/Texas blowout.
She parlayed that puffery into justification for staying in the race--just as she's doing with PA. Touting a "double digit win" is better than the truth--9 points.
In a few days, when it's clear that it was nine points--the media will have moved on.
The question to ask is---how does Clinton manage to finagle situations that help her like this??? Does she get the party apparatus in each state to delay Obama-favored counties? Does she press the media to tout the numbers that she wants, and then ignore the realities? We barely heard anything about the final Texas results.
So sick of this malarkey.
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90-percent
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
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dont make you a millionaire.
-90% jimmy
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mrreowwr_kittty
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:29 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
27. On Super Tuesday she won Arizona by 12 points. |
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By the time all the counting was done a week later, the margin was down to 7%.
But you never heard anything about that.
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writes3000
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:38 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
30. That's exactly what happens. And her peeps march out the talking pts which the MSM parrots. |
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The media knows what they're doing. But it helps keep the story alive.
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Hutzpa
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
31. Very valid points raised, |
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the Clinton's are meddling with the votes and there are people helping her, something definitely is wrong, there is some type of conniving going on with the Clinton's and the media including the Republicans.
Something does x(
and the sooner Obama gets in the trenches the better this will be.
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CTyankee
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:44 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
33. I get your point but the real difference is that she didn't win by just 5 points. |
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Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 11:45 AM by CTyankee
This race was handicapped by the media 24/7, esp. in the final days, and people weren't drawing lines at 9.2. They were using the 5 pt. mark as dooming her. So getting even a 9 looks good by comparison. I'm not taking any side here, just remembering what I kept hearing over and over on the tv day in and day out leading up to yesterday's vote...
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Hutzpa
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Wed Apr-23-08 11:36 AM
Response to Original message |
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the media does not do dumb things...they make calculating move, so, IMO it must have been a deliberate move to manipulate the votes and call it as a 10% win.
All these polls that you see flying around is for a reason, its there so when they report the votes people would not be suspicious of any wrong doing.
The Clinton's started this whole mess and perfected it with a two term Bush Presidency.
Thats why I believe strongly Obama needs to get in there and root these mofo out.
I believe that....
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pdx_prog
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Wed Apr-23-08 01:17 PM
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38. This is all a moot point |
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Has anyone actually heard anyone with any expertise in this area claim that Hillary can win this thing at all? No....
She has a little momentum, but it's not going to last. Nothing happened last night that was unexpected.
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