Huffpost: "Last Night Clinton Won the Pennsylvania Primary, BUT

[Psst_Im_Not_Here]

Lost the War for the Nomination" by Robert Creamer Huffpost

>>The Pennsylvania Primary was Hillary Clinton's last chance to deliver a game changing blow to Obama's campaign for the nomination. She failed to deliver.

Pennsylvania provided her with her final real opportunity to knock the wheels off the Obama campaign. She needed a crushing victory of 18% to 25% to have any real chance of altering the math or the psychology. Demographically, Pennsylvania was made for Hillary: the second oldest state in the nation, heavily blue collar, Catholic and rural -- Hillary's voter profile. She started with a lead of almost 20 points. But her final margin -- which the Pennsylvania Secretary of State says was only 8.6% -- fell far short of what was needed to stop Obama's nomination. Here's why:

1). Pledged Delegates. By CNN's count, Clinton netted about 14 pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. That still leaves Obama up by 151 pledged delegates. It is likely that after Guam, Indiana and North Carolina, there will be no net change in pledged delegates, even if Clinton wins Indiana, since Obama will certainly pick up delegates in North Carolina. But at that point only 251 pledged delegates will remain to be chosen.

Even if she got 80% of all of the pledged delegates that remain after Indiana, she would still trail Obama at the end of the day.>>

Last Night Clinton Won the Pennsylvania Primary, but, Lost the War for the Nomination, Robert Creamer

[BlueCaliDem]

1. As all the media are reporting, the Clinton camp knows that

they can't overtake Obama's lead in delegates.

Their only hope is to stick it out and hope and pray some other scandal more damaging than they've thrown at him so far, will obliterate his chances so she can swoop in and take the election via the whipped-back-into-line SDs.

[mopinko]

2. someone should do a "magic number" like they do in baseball.

this all seems kinda squishy. maybe that would help.

[Psst_Im_Not_Here]

3. Sounds like a good idea to me!

:kick:

[LTR]

4. From the article, some rather interesting math

Guam, even
North Carolina, 58%-42% Obama
Indiana, 54%-46% Clinton
Kentucky, 60%-40% Clinton
West Virginia, 60%-40% Clinton
Oregon, 56%-44% Obama
Montana 56%-44% Obama
Puerto Rico, 60%-40% Clinton

That would leave Obama at 1,846 delegates at the close of the Primaries.

And some of these states could sway surprisingly (Indiana is definitely a toss-up, IMO). Kentucky and W. Virginia are the only gimmes for Clinton. N. Carolina and Oregon are definitely Obama, and have more delegates. He left out S. Dakota, and that one looks pretty solid for Obama so far, especially if Daschle has any sway.

He would need only 41% of the Super Delegates remaining today to clinch the nomination with 2,025. And let's remember, he has picked up almost one Super Delegate a day for the last month (including today with the Governor of Oklahoma). That number will obviously decrease. SD swings before the last of the contests could alter the outcome of those primaries.

I agree with Creamer. Pennsylvania was Clinton's last hurrah.

[Psst_Im_Not_Here]

5. I think he was being generous too

Especially with Indiana.

[RaleighNCDUer]

6. 20 point wins for Clinton in KY , WV, and PR?

Where else has she gotton 20pt wins?

This assessment is extremely generous to Clinton.