Hillary's sad reality: she should have fought in all 50 states

[XemaSab]

This primary season has, if nothing else, completely vindicated the 50-state strategy.

According to my calculations, if Hillary had picked up an average of two more delegates from each state, she'd be tied or ahead, and her chances of getting the nomination would be very good.

She didn't fight that way, however. She focused on a few "big blue" states, and let Obama run up the score in the West and South.

Obama's delegate lead, as the pundits remind us, isn't that great, but there's not enough track left for her to make up the difference.

Why did she run a campaign focused on only a few states?

I think she grossly underestimated Obama's appeal to white voters, particularly Westerners and so-called latte liberals. I also think she's not cognizant of the political realities of campaigning in 2008, particularly the use of the internet for fundraising, networking, organizing volunteers, and mass communicating, but also the "blogosphere" and the online echo-chambers that can occur there. Here in Santa Barbara she was paying people to do phone banking for her, which makes no sense at all. She raised money in a way that worked in 1992, where the campaign had a phone tree of big donors that are milked for funds, but she didn't seem to "get" that a million 5-dollar donors bring in as much as one million-dollar "bundler." And it seems like she used that money to focus on big media buys in her key states, paying consultants, and cushy perks like food and hotels. Again, here in Santa Barbara the Obama people were eating donated CostCo pizza, and having a great time. Yesterday I was checking out Obama's site, and there are all kinds of little "Barrow for Obama" groups that get together and campaign. I think she really missed the boat on that, particularly in states like Alaska, Idaho, and other conservative strongholds.

Any other thoughts? Ideas? Feelings? Impressions? :shrug:

Someday someone's going to write a terrific book about this primary, and I can't wait to read it. :)

[jgraz]

1. Since she loses ground everywhere she campaigns, how would that have helped her?

There's just no strategy that can turn a turd in to a Baby Ruth bar.

[XemaSab]

4. Touche

;)

[DangerDave921]

2. You hit the main points.

Her biggest mistakes:

Underestimating a young, black, 1st term Senator.

Her belief that no one could mount a serious challenge to her.

Lack of organization in smaller states and in caucus states.

Her belief that it would be wrapped up by Super Tuesday, hence lack of an organized campaign in subsequent states.

In a word -- HUBRIS. She never saw it coming till it was too late.

[leftstreet]

3. You're right about us Westerners

The DLC has attempted to marginalize the Mid/Mountain/Coastal West as part of their vichy strategy.

But Obama's strong showing "out here" proves the DLC got pwnd.


:toast:

[XemaSab]

6. I've said it before and I'll say it again:

I think there's a huge liberal/libertarian pool of voters in the west, and they're just not down with Senator Clinton.

That being said, did she even *try* to phone it in in some of those states? :shrug:

[leftstreet]

7. She did nothing

For the first time in YEARS people got doorknocks from Dem(Obama)volunteers. That's just been unheard of in these parts! And it's amazing how that grassroots contact can positively influence a disenfranchised and marginalized "western" voter.

[Diane R]

8. She wasn't even going to make an appearance in WA. St (97 delegates).

The Seattle folks threw a fit, so she came out for 24 hours. That's a state with 97 delegates! (Yet Pennsylvania just got 6 weeks for 157 delegates). Even at that, she was booked in to tiny venues. She's only ever come to our state for fundraisers. She deserves to be losing.

[XemaSab]

10. I was wondering what happened there

It should have been a battleground state with large voter blocs for both of them, but she got SLAUGHTERED.

[Spazito]

5. Her campaign went with the DLC strategy - focus on Super Tuesday

and the "inevitable" message, in other words, politics the same old, same old way and it did not take into account this is not the 90s any more.

Obama put in place the Dean 50-state strategy, the same one the DLC despises, and it is proving this is the 21st century not the 20th any more.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. That's all I think about when I look at Hillary

And it's disgusting. Not the equivalent of Gore losing in 2000, when all we had to do was catch the multi-page or butterfly ballots in Florida ahead of time, but this is comfortably in second place in terms of senseless defeat.

IMO, and exemplified by the totality of the debates, she is so far superior to him, so much more specific and thorough than him on issue after issue, it's a farce. But inept strategy allowed an over valued upstart to narrowly prevail.

Hillary's camp should have understood they had little margin for error, based on the Iraq vote. Plus, they underestimated the netroots and party base, coming off success in '06 and determined to spread influence in '08. Hell, there were threads on this forum, desperately rooting for Hillary's opponent in the '06 primary.

My math is similar to XemaSab's, but maybe 3 delegates apiece from the states she failed to prioritize. So ridiculous, because in many cases it only required a few thousand caucusers to tip it that much. She couldn't put together a basic organization and uproot that many supporters?

Here's the rub: Obama's strategy doesn't residue toward November. You win in spring based on enthusiastic supporters, in November on preference.

And open races are more about competence than pizazz or likability. We essentially got it reversed, nominating a bland candidate vs. an incumbent in '04, then over rotating to charisma in '08. Is there any doubt Kerry would be a major favorite over McCain right now, no worry about a tender resume? Ohio is determined to vote our way this time, unless it simply can't accept the Democratic nominee as substantial enough.

And in '04 Obama would have been a devastating contrast to Bush, in terms of speaking ability and hope vs. fear. You have to gamble against an incumbent, not play it safe. Obviously Obama wasn't a viable candidate at that point. But we need to adjust the priority scope to fit the situation.

[Danger Mouse]

11. K and R, very insightful post...Obama and Deans's 50-state strategy WORKS.

FUCK THE DLC.

[XemaSab]

12. Word

n/t