Obama Team's Strategy glossed over briefly last night. It's a good one.

[berni_mccoy]

This was mentioned on MSNBC briefly by Chuck Todd that Obama's campaign had well known that they had only a small chance of winning Pennsylvania. At the beginning of PA campaign, they also knew they would get plenty of cash (large number of small donations with donors willing to donate again). They also knew that Clinton was having financial troubles. The reality is that even though Delegates are what matter, he has spoken with most of them and some Super Delegates are looking at the popular vote as well, most are counting Florida, no one is counting Michigan.

So this means before PA, Clinton was about 500,000 down in the popular vote. She picked up roughly 200,000 in PA. She needs about 300 thousand more. Todd ran through the numbers on the remaining contests and while possible for her to get the popular vote, it's extremely unlikely. She needs a close election in NC (to keep Obama within 10 points) and a minimum of a 10 point margin on all the remaining contests in order to TIE the popular vote count. The Obama campaign strategy was to force Clinton's campaign to spend as much money as possible and have her go into debt, making it extremely difficult for her in NC and setting up a firewall in Oregon. With a 25+ point deficit in NC, Clinton is forced to spend considerable cash in NC just to make it a close election. And she only has 2 weeks to do it. If Obama wins by more than 10% in NC and keeps it close in Oregon, she is done. There simply won't be enough popular votes for Clinton to beat Obama in this metric. The SD's looking at popular vote as well as delegates will then move to Obama.

It sounds as if Obama's team has played their strategy well in PA and is on track to "seal the deal" with Oregon.

[speedoo]

1. That's far too reasonable, accurate and complicated for Tweety & Co.

They'd rather flail around, speculate and fish for flashy stuff to get the ratings.

To Todd's credit, he has not fallen in with the dopey talking heads.

[SoCalDem]

2. AND McCaskill just let us know that we will be revisiting Whitewater, the cattle futures deal

and yes.. even impeachment..

Buckle up!!

[berni_mccoy]

3. They need to attack her on her Wal-Mart term on the Board of Directors

She was pivotal in the Buy America program which ended up being a bait-and-switch deal for America. She knew it and should be held accountable for the damage Wal-Mart has done to this country.

[ErinBerin84]

6. Did McCaskill really just say that?!

Please give details.

[SoCalDem]

11. yep, she did..

It will be replayed, I'm sure..but on MSNBC a while ago she said that Obama had been "restraining" himself and had NOT mentioned some things, out of respect for her, BUT, after all these things WILL be brought out by republicans...just like Clinton says the things she's been saying about HIM will be brought out, so...there will be more focus on HER baggage too.

[SoonerPride]

4. I likened Obama's strategy to "rope a dope"

Force your opponent to expend energy (and vast sums of money) while not being able to deliver any real damage.

Then you emerge fresh and hardly bruised and mop the florr with them.

The mopping up comes over the next two weeks.

By forcing Hillary to drain her bank dry in a state that should have been a sure-thing for Hillary, Obama played rope a dope and may have lost the battle, but will win the war.

[berni_mccoy]

20. Good analogy

[Auggie]

5. I suppose driving someone into debt could be considered a good strategy...

and even though I really want Obama to win I can't help but find the whole process as distasteful as detecting brettanomyces in my Chardonnay.

[berni_mccoy]

7. She didn't have to go into debt. It was her choice and planning that led her there

She was already in trouble before PA. Why? Because she has done a miserable job managing her campaign. And she can't get people to donate.

It's a sound strategy to wear your opponent down so they can't fight.

[grantcart]

8. Correction Clinton was down 700,000 before PA

she is now down 535,664

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ultimate-delegate-summary.html

[berni_mccoy]

14. That count didn't look like it was factoring in Florida, which some SDs are. I could be wrong.

[4themind]

9. The Michigan dog won't hunt among superdelegates in my view

The whole point is to see who is runs relatively better among CONTESTED primaries, and out of the two candidates remaining , only ONE of them was on the ballot. Regardless of the fact that Obama himself took his name off, that's arguably insufficient evidence to indicate that Hillary would have done better than obama, at best it's inconclusive. There are rules as to how the Michigan delegates WOULD have been counted. There are no rules to how a popular vote tally SHOULD be considered, they have the freedom, as hillary admits, and I think in the context of looking at their relative performances in states, its perfectly logical (while not mandatory) for the superdelegates to exclude the michigan data in their determinations, because there was nothing TO relate the two in that case.

[Bok_Tukalo]

10. It seems that the Republicans are getting into the NC act

So Clinton may have an assist in that state.

[SoCalDem]

12. Of course they are.. they have the lamest candidate in decades

they don;t like him, so why not piss in OUR sandbox..

THEY WANT TO RUN AGAINST HILLARY..

republicans have NO qualms about beating up on a woman..but their racist tendencies make it very difficult for them to run against Obama, they want Hillary so badly they can taste it..and they will do whatever they can to ruin him, so they can pulverize her..and even if she managed to :win", they relish the thought of bashing her and blaming her for 4 years..just like they did in the 90s with her husband..

The media is NOT our friend.. never was..never will be..so if people want more deadlock and strife and nothing but drama & more drama..she's your gal..

[TragedyandHope]

13. Thanks for the post

I'm looking forward to Hillary's concession speech.

[underpants]

15. 10 days. 10 days until Guam!!!

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/timeline.php?year=2008&f=0&off=0&elect=1

[berni_mccoy]

16. Heh. Guam. I forgot about that place.

[FrenchieCat]

17. Kick.......

He never gets as much credit as he deserves. What's new? :shrug:

[berni_mccoy]

18. Meanwhile, Clinton applies the scorched earth strategy.

[Scurrilous]

19. K & R

:thumbsup:

[FlyingSquirrel]

21. 'nother k/r for ya

[berni_mccoy]

22. Todd talking about this again on Countdown

[berni_mccoy]

23. TODD JUST SAID CLINTON CAN'T WIN IF SHE DOESN'T WIN NC!

[kentuck]

24. If Obama wins big in NC..? it is over

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5643839&mesg_id=5643839

[Tinksrival]

25. Whoo WhOOOO!!!!

Me Likey...Me Likey!!! :bounce: