What are the down-ballot implications of a Clinton or Obama nomination?

[wiggs]

If Clinton becomes the nominee, and EVEN IF she bests McCain in the GE, what happens to all the state and national office races and issues also on the ballot? Those are critical to change as well, right? Compared to Obama, will she inspire more GOP voters to come out to oppose her, thereby harming dem chances down-ballot? Or will it be the same as Obama?

If I were a super delegate up for election, would I be thinking how each candidate affects my chances for re-election?

Which candidate will have bigger coat-tails? Which candidate will inspire people to come vote FOR him rather than AGAINST someone else?

[samdogmom]

1. Obama has the bigger coat tails--hands down!

[wiggs]

3. That's what I think too, obviously. And his coat-tails will be bigger in

November rather than smaller. He is on the rise, even in states in which he loses the primary.

[Cant trust em]

2. In PA they had something like 100,000 registrations changed from GOP to Dem for this election

60% of those voters went for Obama. Assuming that there aren't cross-party shenanigans, it seems like people are willing to change their stripes for Obama. He brings people to the party that weren't already there.

The numbers might be a little off, I heard it last night. Googling right now to verify these. If they're inaccurate, please let me know.

Thanks.

[BlooInBloo]

4. Um, Clinton's not for change - she and her supporters could care less about anything but...

.... Her becoming President.

[newmajority]

5. Hillary as a nominee would benefit the status quo

Whether that's repuke congressional seats in November, or DLC incumbents in the primaries.

In one of the east coast primaries, which Obama won, there was a progressive congressional candidate who beat the DLC, warmongering incumbent in the primary. The same challenger lost to the incumbent in 2006. The new voters who signed up to vote for Obama made all the difference. (sorry I forget exactly which state and the name of the candidate, but it was well publicized at the time)

[wiggs]

6. Thank you for the real life example. Would be good for pundits to

start talking about this important effect for dems. Change means more than the White House.

[Cant trust em]

7. 10% of PA Primary electorate wasn't Dem in January

They switched parties for this primary and 60% of them went for Obama.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#PADEM

[wiggs]

8. So is your point that they have changed their basic politics or are you saying

that they are still basically GOP and might vote for Obama but would likely vote GOP down-ballot?

Might be hard to predict what these recent dems would do on other issues.

[Cant trust em]

10. I think that most people vote down ticket based on their presidential vote

Pres. votes are like the main event and the undercards are likely to be based on the main event. I think that most of these people voted for Obama because they want change. That's why they are changing to Dem.

[zalinda]

9. Neither one has big coat tails. n/t