Hillary Clinton is now ahead in the popular vote count

[Apollo11]

According to Real Clear Politics, more people have voted for Hillary Clinton than for Barack Obama, if you include the voters who participated in the Florida and Michigan primaries.

Here are the latest numbers:
Total number of people who voted for Hillary Clinton: 15,340,568
Total number of people who voted for Barack Obama: 15,327,432

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

This is for all the Obama supporters who are always saying how it's all about "the math"! B-)

[phrigndumass]

1. Good luck with that!

:popcorn:

[anonymous171]

2. Adding MI is stupid.

[Apollo11]

19. Tell that to the 328,309 Democrats who voted for Hillary in Michigan.

Why don't you try telling them that counting their votes is "stupid".

Then try asking the people of Michigan to support the Democratic ticket in November.

[MidwestTransplant]

So she should get the benefit of their vote count despite not having Obama on the ballot?

[helderheid]

33. "Hmmm... Lemme see... Vote for Clinton or... hey wait... she's the only one on this ticket!"

[RiverStone]

34. That's like telling the Lakers to count their points....

When they played against NOBODY (ok, so DK was on the ballot - but his intent to exit was already known).

I can't fathom how folks think counting a primary where Obama was not even on the ballot will count for a damn thing - it never will!!!!

Only a redo will do.

[anonymous171]

36. Well, how about the Hillary supporters who didn't vote because they

thought their vote wouldn't count? Not to mention the Obama supporters who couldn't vote for their candidate because he WASN'T EVEN ON THE FUCKING BALLOT?

[Ned_Devine]

56. Or...

...you could just play the clip of Hillary in 2007 saying that MI doesn't count. You could do that, right? Does that seem possible since that's what she actually said and is what happened?

[Hepburn]

63. Tell that to the people who stayed home and followed the rules, OK?

How the votes of those who participated in a unsanctioned primary...those votes count...but those who followed the rules, get fucked over.

Total BS....like anything else that comes from Camp Hillbot.

[Growler]

64. It is stupid to count MI

And I'd tell that to anyone in that state.

[jgraz]

78. I'm more interested in the 238,168 who turned out in freezing weather just to vote "uncommitted"

That's a serious rejection of a failing candidate.

[grantcart]

44. adding Florida is equally as stupid

if you are going to add uncontested campaigns then what is the point of having a camapign.

[Poll_Blind]

"If you include....Florida and Michigan primaries"

:rofl:

PB

[datopbanana]

3. If you include the people who voted in the Canada primaries. BO win 25M to 15.3M. too bad...

[DUyellow]

4. Wolfson: "This is a delegate race"

[2rth2pwr]

5. Hillary, the candidate of the people.

Not the elitists.

[babylonsister]

6. How can you possibly include MI when Obama wasn't even on the

ballot? Go back and cipher that.

[John Q. Citizen]

70. Or Florida. An election where campaigning is forbidden is un-American. It's illegitimate.

[yardwork]

102. Good question.

[Coexist]

this was written just for you!

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/23/131539/929/684/501732

Actually, that's simply ridiculous. Go to Real Clear Politics and look at their popular vote estimates (pre-Pennsylvania):

Popular vote total: Obama +717,086
Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +827,308

Popular Vote (w/FL): Obama +422,314
Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +532,536

Popular Vote (w/FL *MI): Obama +94,005
Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +204,227

So see what they have done -- the Clinton campaign and Jerome have taken the roughly 215,000 net votes Clinton gained in Pennsylvania, and added them to the popular vote count that includes the unsanctioned contests in Michigan and Florida, and excludes caucuses in four states. How's that for inclusiveness?

It gets worse. That Michigan vote estimate? Obama wasn't on the ballot. If you count the "uncommitted" votes for Obama -- all of them anti-Hillary votes, remember -- that would add 237,762 votes to Obama's total.

Which means that in Clinton and Jerome's world, Clinton is ahead in the popular vote only IF you exclude four caucus states, IF you include two unsanctioned states, and IF you "disenfranchise" every voter in Michigan who voted against Hillary Clinton.

That takes a new and particularly audacious level of chutzpah.

[Andy823]

28. More BS

From the queen of BS! Haven't we had enough BS with Bush? I now I have.

[Apollo11]

39. The numbers in the OP include the 4 caucus states you mentioned.

I am just using the most comprehensive numbers that are up on Real Clear Politics.

Their numbers only include people who have voted for either Hillary or Obama.

They don't include people who voted for other candidates or "uncommitted".

[bowens43]

76. They include florida and michigan.

your numbers are wrong.

[Coexist]

111. including Florida = whatever, including Michigan = desperate

to make some type of math work.

[scheming daemons]

7. Too bad Saddam-style one-candidate elections like MI don't count.....

[rinsd]

17. There were 4 Democratic candidates on the ballot.

Clinton, Dodd, Kucinich & Gravel.

[scheming daemons]

26. Like I said.... she ran unopposed.....

[Debi]

46. Dodd's name was on the ballot but he already dropped out of the race n/t

[Stop Cornyn]

8. Hillary is also beating Obama two to nothing in the all-important who has ovaries tally!

[goletian]

9. neither is included. thems the rules. - nt

[bluestateguy]

10. The popular vote put President Gore over the top

Oh, wait a minute...

[Apollo11]

55. Are you saying Bush won the 2000 election fair and square?

Are you saying that Al Gore and Hillary Clinton are a pair of losers?

Some of us think that who got the most votes should count for something in a so-called democracy!

[Oberon]

11. MI doesn't count, literally.

I am from Michigan.

You're ignoring that fact that NO ONE voted for Obama in Michigan because he wasn't on the ballot.

You may have an arguement about FL but MI is completely out of any possible arguement at this point.

[rinsd]

12. As I have said on other threads, You cannot include MI in pop vote totals.

Obama was not on the ballot and you cannot just assign him the Uncommitted vote because Edwards supporters are mixed in there.

[scheming daemons]

30. So then... why do you guys keep doing it?

[rinsd]

47. Because I can only be responsible for my own actions.

:shrug:

Would you like for me to accuse you of being elitist because some asshats with Obama avatars have acted that way?

[Apollo11]

113. I agree. rinsd is not responsible for my actions.

Whatever kicks my thread ... :kick:

[JackORoses]

50. you cannot include Florida, either. Both MI and FL broke the same rules.

They are both invalid contests.
Neither will be used to determine the Nominee.

[dbonds]

13. You forgot to add in the votes from the Gulf of Mexico Undersea colony.

That give Obama another 3 million votes.

[Aloha Spirit]

54. +1

[Pirate Smile]

14. Truly a pathetic argument by Clinton supporters.

"Go to Real Clear Politics and look at their popular vote estimates (pre-Pennsylvania):

Popular vote total: Obama +717,086
Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +827,308

Popular Vote (w/FL): Obama +422,314
Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +532,536

Popular Vote (w/FL *MI): Obama +94,005
Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +204,227



So see what they have done -- the Clinton campaign and Jerome have taken the roughly 215,000 net votes Clinton gained in Pennsylvania, and added them to the popular vote count that includes the unsanctioned contests in Michigan and Florida, and excludes caucuses in four states. How's that for inclusiveness?

It gets worse. That Michigan vote estimate? Obama wasn't on the ballot. If you count the "uncommitted" votes for Obama -- all of them anti-Hillary votes, remember -- that would add 237,762 votes to Obama's total.

Which means that in Clinton and Jerome's world, Clinton is ahead in the popular vote only IF you exclude four caucus states, IF you include two unsanctioned states, and IF you "disenfranchise" every voter in Michigan who voted against Hillary Clinton.

That takes a new and particularly audacious level of chutzpah."

[Apollo11]

61. The numbers in the OP include those 4 caucus states.

I am not responsible for the numbers. I found them on Real Clear Politics.

[truebrit71]

15. There were no Democratic primaries in either of the two states you mentioned...

..at least not ones that are legitimate or that count for anything...

[yourguide]

16. Do you really think that Obama would have gotten 0% of the vote in Michigan.

Do you think we are all stupid enough to believe that?

[Apollo11]

73. The Obama Campaign has blocked the plan for a do-over in Michigan.

They came up with crazy unacceptable preconditions - like allowing folks who voted for McCain back in January to switch parties and vote in the Democratic do-over primary.

So forgive me if I have limited patience with listening to Obama supporters whining about how there should be a do-over in Michigan.

[Apollo11]

77. Maybe Obama should have kept his name on the ballot?

Or maybe the Obama campaign should have accepted the DNC plan for a do-over in Michigan?

[yourguide]

80. or maybe HRC should have stuck to her word and taken her name off

and you HRC supporters talk about wanting it to be fair instead of following the rules...then you want to follow the rules instead of wanting to be fair...

:puke:

[madfloridian]

18. Spinning is wrong.

This is too serous an election.

[FlyingSquirrel]

23. Spinning used to be called LYING.

It used to be looked down upon.

[SoonerPride]

plonk

no time for idiocy

[Abacus]

20. Only including MI,

which is either dishonesty or stupidity -- that pretty much sums up my thoughts on the entirety of the spin this primary season has seen.

[Adelante]

21. Oh, come on

Too much daydreaming is bad for your brain :)

[FlyingSquirrel]

22. I'd respond but then that'd kick your thread.

Doh!

:silly:

This shit won't stop till we have a nominee so I guess you might as well be the shitter.

Posting

Shit.

Caucus voters don't count 'cause they didn't get counted.
Michigan voters don't count 'cause they didn't get counted.
Florida voters count, even though they won't be counted.

Whaddabunchacrap.

Or whatever you wanna call it.

[rinsd]

32. Most caucus voters were counted. IA, NV, ME, WA can be estimated.

The problem is including MI.

I think you can make the case for FL as a straw poll.

[Debi]

68. How can an estimate be used?

I can't speak for NV, ME, WA but here in Iowa the first alignment 'votes' are not documented. Only after realignment is there a 'vote count' and then THAT is translated into a delegate count. Even if delegate count and number in attendance were somehow mashed together to come up with an 'estimate' it would not be accurate because the first alignment is the actual 'popular vote'.

A small example. My son is a Biden supporter, Biden wasn't viable on the first alignment at our caucus so my son realigned with the Edwards supporters. Edwards then received a delegate. So what counts? Biden gets a vote? No, Edwards gets a delegate. How accurate is that to the 'popular vote' estimate?

Plus, here in Iowa, the process happens again at County Conventions and again at District Conventions and again at State Convention. (At the County Conventions both Clinton and Edwards lost delegates and Obama gained delegates - is that reflected in the 'estimated popular vote' for Iowa?)

You just cannot accurately calculate 'popular vote' when both primaries and caucuses are used in the nominee selection process.

[npincus]

24. I heard she got 12 million votes on Mars!

where the ballots don't count, either. :rofl:

[newmajority]

25. Lee Mercer is leading the popular vote, if you count all the parallel universes

That's right, all three of them. :evilgrin:

[Apollo11]

66. Florida and Michigan are not "parallel universes". They are important swing states.

The people (real US citizens in THIS universe) who took part in those primaries did so with the hope that maybe their votes would count for something. Otherwise nobody would have showed up.

[newmajority]

107. The people in those primaries KNEW their votes would not be counted.

If they went to the polls because there were local races or ballot measures, that's fine. If they did it to cast a meaningless vote for Hillary, they don't deserve recognition for that.

I live in Washington state. I got a primary ballot in the mail which actually HAD all the candidates names on it. Including some who had dropped out before the ballot was mailed. But I didn't bother voting on it.

Why not? Because this is a caucus state, and that's how I actually voted. The primary ballot is useless.

Circumstances were different in Michigan and Florida, of course. But the end result is the same. The votes are meaningless. And Hillary cannot count them any more than she could count primary votes from Washington.

[Big Blue Marble]

27. According to the principles of the Democratic Party,

remember the one you represent, the math that matters are the delegates.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5648790



Besides your count is only true, if you are counting MI. Obama's name was
not on the ballot. How does that synch with your democratic principles?

[SeaLyons]

29. K&R

[moondust]

31. If you count the voters in MI and FL

that were disenfranchised before their primaries were even held and didn't waste their time showing up for a mock election, she is likely even farther behind than she is right now.

[onenote]

35. ah, yes, the popular, let's disenfranchise all of the Obama supporters in Michigan approach

For a group that complains that not counting MI and FL disenfranchises voters, taking an approach that gives HRC credit for votes in Michigan when Obama played by the rules and took his name off the ballot takes the concept of disingenuousness to a whole new level.

[Debi]

37. How was 'popular vote' determined in the caucus states?

There is no accurate way to do so.

[Apollo11]

45. Real Clear Politics have found some way of doing it.

Apparently.

Maybe it would be more transparent if every state had a primary election?

[Debi]

84. Maybe, but since they didn't we can't really change the rules mid-contest can we?

Oh, wait.....

[rinsd]

53. Not true Most caucuses published vote totals.

IA, NV, ME, WA did not.

Here's RCP's explanantion of their estimates for those caucuses as they are the source being cite here.

*(Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine Have Not Released Popular Vote Totals. RealClearPolitics has estimated the popular vote totals for Senator Obama and Clinton in these four states. RCP uses the WA Caucus results from February 9 in this estimate because the Caucuses on February 9 were the “official” contest recognized by the DNC to determine delegates to the Democratic convention. The estimate from these four Caucus states where there are not official popular vote numbers increases Senator Obama’s popular vote margin by 110,224. This number would be about 50,000 less if the Washington primary results from February 19th were used instead of the Washington Caucus results.)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[Debi]

88. So, IA, NV, ME, WA don't count? Or we'll just strike a guess and call it good enough?

As long as an accurate tabulation of 'popular vote' cannot be realized - then 'popular vote' cannot be used.

Which is why delegate count is used.

[rinsd]

100. Popular vote only "counts" as an argument posed to Superdelegates.

I am not suggesting the popular vote leader is the nominee.

That only works as an argument though if the pledged delegate total is close.

And that is because pledged delegates came from a wide range of voting systems, some awarding bonus delegates, some awarding delegates in later country conventions etc.

If the pledged delegates get close, some Superdelegates may prefer head counting.

[Debi]

109. But head counting won't work in states that don't have a raw total

for 'votes' initially cast in a caucus.

I can't believe I'm making this argument b/c it's 100% the opposite of the one I made when the Biden supporters were so pissed off that the Senator didn't register more support in the final delegate count in Iowa. For the purpose of Clinton's 'popular vote' argument they are correct. Unless we can go back and re-enact the Iowa Caucuses we will never know how much support Senator Clinton and Senator Obama actually had in the first alignment in Iowa. (for instance, in my caucus Clinton actually had more support than Edwards, but upon realignment the Richardson/Dodd/Biden folks went over to Edwards and he ended up beating Clinton to get the delegate awarded). The 'estimate' in Iowa is false because it's based on the final count of delegates awarded mashed together with particpant turnout.

How can THAT be used to sway super delegates?

[rinsd]

110. Thoughts on this.

While knowing that realignment complicates things, the support we see reflected in the totals is likely higher for both candidate than their actual total support going in.

"How can THAT be used to sway super delegates?"

For all we know some supers maybe flipping coins at this point.

The pop vote argument is just one of the argument bandied about to sway Supers.

Others include electability which takes into consideration head to head polling, favorability polls etc.

[Liberal Gramma]

38. In MI "Other" got 40%

Since Obama wasn't on the ballot, don't those votes mean, "Anybody except Hillary?" I think that's pretty accurate, about 40% of Democrats want anybody but Hillary, with a higher percentage of Republicans. That's why she can't win a GE.

[IndependentDem]

60. "Uncommitted" received over 230,000 votes-- what does that tell you?

How about we give those votes to Obama... that makes about as much sense as adding the 328,151 Clinton votes to the popular vote total.

[speedoo]

40. Alerted.

I'm tired of these lies.

[Hepburn]

41. That is one fucking HUGE "if"....

...IMO, don't hold your breath. :eyes:

Mark this thread...TOTAL WASTE OFR BANDWIDTH.

[JackORoses]

42. FAIL! Try sticking to the actual numbers.

Your Hillarite Spin is beyond desperate.
You should be pitied.

[Apollo11]

83. The numbers I included in the OP are right there in your screen shot!

I decided to use the ones in the last line because they are the most comprehensive.

I am not in the business of throwing votes out the window, even if the DNC is.

[JackORoses]

106. they are not comprehensive, they are invalid

Did you fail to notice all the asterisks around the count you posted?

FL and MI do not count. Period.
The contests they held were ruled invalid and will have no bearing on the Nominee.

Touting false numbers does not make them real.

[mdmc]

43. How is the math without the failed states?

FL and MI shouldn't count.

[Apollo11]

90. Look at Real Clear Politics or see post #42

There you can see 6 different sets of numbers, based on different definitions of which votes should be included in the totals.

[BlooInBloo]

48. Known Clinton supporter lie #32...

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/23/131539/929/684/501732

So see what they have done -- the Clinton campaign and Jerome have taken the roughly 215,000 net votes Clinton gained in Pennsylvania, and added them to the popular vote count that includes the unsanctioned contests in Michigan and Florida, and excludes caucuses in four states. How's that for inclusiveness?

It gets worse. That Michigan vote estimate? Obama wasn't on the ballot. If you count the "uncommitted" votes for Obama -- all of them anti-Hillary votes, remember -- that would add 237,762 votes to Obama's total.

Which means that in Clinton and Jerome's world, Clinton is ahead in the popular vote only IF you exclude four caucus states, IF you include two unsanctioned states, and IF you "disenfranchise" every voter in Michigan who voted against Hillary Clinton.

That takes a new and particularly audacious level of chutzpah.

[Apollo11]

92. I am using the RCP numbers including those 4 caucus states.

If you think it is undemocratic to count all the votes, maybe you can complain to Real Clear Politics? They are the ones who have published the numbers I put in the OP.

[LSparkle]

49. And Obama got how many votes in Michigan since his name was off the ballot?

Probably more than the number that separates them in this analysis
(around 20K).

[Apollo11]

93. I guess the answer is we don't know.

Makes it hard for me to understand why the Obama campaign blocked the DNC approved plan for a do-over primary in Michigan (after the Clinton campaign had accepted it).

[LSparkle]

112. Because Clinton donors were going to PAY for the re-vote ...

They weren't paying so she could LOSE, you know ... It would
have looked fixed and he was right to refuse it.

[JFN1]

51. Since Obama wasn't eveon on the ballot in MI

The Clinton sense of fairness and entitlement is in full gear now!!!! Kos, as usual, gets it right:

Actually, that's simply ridiculous. Go to Real Clear Politics and look at their popular vote estimates (pre-Pennsylvania):

Popular vote total: Obama +717,086
Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +827,308

Popular Vote (w/FL): Obama +422,314
Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +532,536

Popular Vote (w/FL *MI): Obama +94,005
Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +204,227

So see what they have done -- the Clinton campaign and Jerome have taken the roughly 215,000 net votes Clinton gained in Pennsylvania, and added them to the popular vote count that includes the unsanctioned contests in Michigan and Florida, and excludes caucuses in four states. How's that for inclusiveness?

It gets worse. That Michigan vote estimate? Obama wasn't on the ballot. If you count the "uncommitted" votes for Obama -- all of them anti-Hillary votes, remember -- that would add 237,762 votes to Obama's total.

Which means that in Clinton and Jerome's world, Clinton is ahead in the popular vote only IF you exclude four caucus states, IF you include two unsanctioned states, and IF you "disenfranchise" every voter in Michigan who voted against Hillary Clinton.

That takes a new and particularly audacious level of chutzpah.

Well said, Kos.

[Apollo11]

95. Kos is a reliable source of pro-Obama spin.

That's why he gets invited on Bill Maher's show.

[JFN1]

104. The numbers don't lie

That's Hillary's arena, she's the one screwing with the numbers - not Kos.

[Bigleaf]

52. More Bullshit! Todays Clinton talking points apparently. The Truth:

Leads in Pledged Delegates - Obama
Leads in Popular Vote - Obama
Leads in States Won - Obama

[JFN1]

69. I love your picture!!!!

So funny!!

[Apollo11]

96. What is the relevance of "States won"?

Does it mean that Idaho is equally important for a Presidential election as Ohio? :eyes:

[Bigleaf]

103. No, it means Camp Clinton went with the wrong strategy and she's paying the price now.

[provis99]

57. thanks for the daily dose of Clintonite vapid crap

welcome to Ignore.

[racaulk]

58. FAIL!

[Barrymores Ghost]

59. K&R for the DUzy post of the week!!

:tinfoilhat:

[Stand and Fight]

62. How sweet the sound...

Obama supporters heads are popping across the country! LOL

[John Q. Citizen]

65. If wishes were fishes, we'd have a fish fry.

[kenny blankenship]

67. Keepin' it Unreal, i see

[Zodiak]

71. Did you count caucuses?

No?

Did you have to include two states that broke the rules and one on which Obama was not even a candidate? Yes?

Then this is why you go on ignore. This has been debunked many times just today, but you still have to trot it out like it means something. It does no good arguing with the willfully ignorant or the ...waste of time.

[Apollo11]

97. Yes

The numbers I quoted in the OP include the best available counts of caucus-goers.

But then I guess you won't be reading this message, seeing as how I am on ignore ...

[futureliveshere]

72. Dude.. were you on Apollo11 coz you sound like you belong in OUTER SPACE with this argument???

[bowens43]

74. Hate to break it to you , but you're wrong.

Your numbers include florida and michigan. Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan so you need to subtarct a minimu of 328,309 votes. Of course you also need to subtract Florida, another 294,772. Clinton is behind in the popular vote by over half a million.

[HockeyMom]

85. Obama WAS on ballot in Florida

My vote for OBAMA in Florida didn't count.

Hey, Hillary supporters, it's not just about YOU. You make it sound like every single vote in this state was for HER.

[HockeyMom]

Obama WAS on ballot in Florida

My vote for OBAMA in Florida didn't count.

Hey, Hillary supporters, it's not just about YOU. You make it sound like every single vote in this state was for HER.

[jenmito]

75. "If you count the votes in Michigan..."

Hello, Hillary! You DON'T count the votes in MI! No need to even complete the sentence! If pigs could fly, my bacon would have wings!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

79. "More people have deluded themselves than ever before!"

Yeah! Yeah! Yeah!

[jgraz]

81. Hillary Clinton is now ahead in the dumbass supporter count

Oh wait, she's always been the undisputed frontrunner there.

[hughee99]

82. So if you just include

the Michigan and Florida votes, exclude the Michigan voters who couldn't vote for Obama, but still made a point to go to the polls to vote against Hillary, and ignore all the Limpballs crossover votes, Hillary has a 13,000 vote lead. Good for her!

[stevietheman]

86. Obama is the presumptive nominee. Stop the spinning. n/t

n/t

[Carolina]

87. yeah, math for cheaters!

[onenote]

89. You may like your simplistic, bogus analysis, but superdelegates are more sophisticated than you

And they aren't going to try to defend a decision based on a popular vote count that pretends that not a single voter in the state of michigan supports Obama.

Dream on.

[cali]

91. LOL. NPR just essentially called her LIAR for claiming that in a

speech today. So did ABC.

[Catherina]

94. Facts gets in the way

:shrug:

[EFerrari]

98. And I can fly!

:rofl:

[GetTheRightVote]

99. You really need to go back to grade school to learn how to add

and Michigan and Florida do not count remember they broke the rules are are excluded from all counts, thank you very much for the mis-count once again, this floridian thinks it is to funny to hear it all over again just like in 2004. Only one problem with it all, now Hillary is the liar.

[Apollo11]

101. Please address your complaint to RealClearPolitics.com

They published the numbers that I am quoting in the OP.

[ClayZ]

105. ~ I would prefer even to fail with honor than to win by cheating ~ Sophocles

[smiley_glad_hands]

108. Only if you cheat. eom

[bobbert]

114. What percentage of a person did the caucus voters count as?