*** After PA: Obama Only 138 Away From Magic Number ***

[Khaotic]

After PA, Sen. Barack Obama has an even more commanding lead.

After holding Hillary's win to SINGLE digits, Obama is only 138 pledged delegates away from the magic number of 1,627, which is 50%+1 of the pledged delegates.

1,627 is fifty percent plus one of the 3,253 democratically selected delegates to the Democratic nominating convention.

Once a candidate has 1,627 of these "pledged" delegates, he or she will win the nomination -- unless the 796 superdelegates overturn the judgment of voters.

And that's NOT going to happen.

Barack Obama is at 1,489 pledged delegates (he gained 73 out of PA according to CBS news)

Before PA I predicted that Obama is on track to reach the magic number with the May 20th vote in KY and OR.

Still true.

In my previous predictions I gave Hillary a huge victory margin in PA and was extremely conservative w/ Obama's projected delegates out of PA. I actually only gave him credit to only get 60 delegates out of PA, he received 73.

Slate has Obama only winning 71, but we'll see what hashes out after the last 50 outstanding districts report out of PA.

Anyway, using the Slate delegate calculator, and continuing to give Hillary HUGE margins in the states she can win (I even gave Hillary Indiana), she is as done as a Thanksgiving turkey after May 20.

I didn't give predictions for states after May 20 because they won't be needed.

Here ya go:

[Khaotic]

1. Thoughts?

[ej510]

2. Good Stuff!

[Khaotic]

3. Thx!

[adoraz]

4. even if she wins by 42% in Kentucky

she will still lose by 142 delegates.

[Khaotic]

5. No worries

She just can't do it.

Obama is on a solid track to reach the magic number of 50%+1 after the May 20 vote.

It's plain, it's simple, it will happen.

After that the uncommitted SDs will go to Obama.

Wait and see.

[Khaotic]

6. 138

We know that's not hard to understand.

138

... and counting.

[rock]

7. Then you got nothing to worry about do you

relax

[JPZenger]

8. Many supers said would vote for whoever has pledged lead

Many superdelegates have publicly said that they will go with whoever has the pledged delegate lead. That would guarantee at least 6 more supers for Obama (probably more).

In Phila, Congressman Brady's district went for Obama by a truly overwhelming margin. As a old style politician, he'd be an idiot if he didn't endorse Obama. Brady did not want to endorse before the election because he is head of the Phila Dem. Committee, and wanted to appear unbiased.

[FlyingSquirrel]

11. About 10% of them have said that

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20080421/NEWS02/956876476/-1/news02

So, he would get a minimum of 25 endorsements on May 20 but in reality, there may be more who agree who did not want to go on record. It will probably be a big Super day on May 20.

[NJSecularist]

9. Sorry, you are not entitled to the nomination if you get 1627 pledged delegates.

Only when Obama receives 2024 delegates total will he receive the nomination.

[Bolo Boffin]

10. When he gets over half the pledged delegates, the supers will put him over the top.

Hide and watch.

[depakid]

12. If it looks like he'll lose BADLY in the fall, I certainly hope not

The numbers out of the Pennsylvania counties were not encouraging, and my guess is that the superdelegates are having a look at those today.

[tekisui]

13. Another number to watch. About 100.

100 more superdelegates will give Obama 333 total. By reasonable estimates, using similar numbers that you used, he will need 333ish Superdelegates.

Right now he holds 233. About 100 more SD's or 138 Pledged Delegates will clinch it for Obama.

Obama needs 100 of the remaining 300. Just one third of the remaining SuperD's. Hillary needs about 230, just over two-thirds.

[forintegrity]

14. 137 now

according to the following website:

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ultimate-delegate-summary.html