NC and INDIANA are fired up and WILL END THIS!

[adoraz]

I predicted Hillary would win PA by 10 yesterday, and I am going to make another prediction right now:

My prediction is this race will pretty much be over by May 6.

Here is exactly what I think will happen:

For the next few days, she will over exaggerate her Pennsylvania win. Her win in PA will do her some good for a few days in the national polls as well as NC and Indiana polls, however I expect by early next week everything will go back to normal. The hype will fade. The reality will set in. No, there will be no big movement of Supers to Hillary.

This is when she will go negative. More negative than she ever has before. Obama will be up by double digits in NC, and single digits in Indiana.

The party will see all the damage being done by Hillary. May 6 will be a must win day for her, and since she will be trailing in the polls she will go negative for about a week leading up to the primaries.

The party won't be able to take it anymore, and once Obama wins both Indiana and NC on May 6, this will be over.

Both wins will be extremely, extremely important and here is why:

-North Carolina: Supers will soon find out (if they don't already know) that NC will be a big battleground for the General Election. Blacks voted for Obama by a 92%-8% difference in Pennsylvania (not even a Southern state). At least 30% voting will be black in NC. He will win by double digits here. A lot of North Carolina, especially the part I am in, is well educated. Once he wins, this will be seen as a very important win because the Hillary campaign can't say "NC doesn't matter" like they said about the other Southern states. Another huge aspect of this win will be about how impossible it would be for Hillary to catch up in delegates and the popular vote count.
-Indiana: Unlike PA and Ohio, Obama will win here. Obama already leads in some of the polls (2 most recent by 5%) with little campaigning there, while that didn't happen for him in Ohio and PA a couple weeks before. Both Republicans and Independents can vote (and polls have them going big for Obama), and in PA they couldn't. His win won't be by a large margin, but it won't need to be. His margins with whites will be significantly up, and once the Supers realize this they will finally see Obama as a candidate who could seal the deal in a state similar to Ohio and PA. Clinton will be out of excuses.


Once this happens, I believe very shortly after the Party will unite behind Obama. :)

They are already sick to death of this race, but assuming he wins NC by double digits and Indiana by at least 1 vote, they will have a perfect reason to line up behind their nominee. Hillary will be finished.

[SeattleGirl]

1. Don't you mean May 6th? n/t

[adoraz]

4. yeah sorry, edited that

[joeybee12]

2. He had six weeks and $10 million to figure out Pennsylvania...

...he's still only got his hard-core supporters and isn't getting the people he needs to win in November...what makes you think he'll figure it out in 2 weeks?

[anonymous171]

8. 6 weeks+wright+bitter=9 point loss, down from 20 in the beginning

[Cronus Protagonist]

10. Obama's peak support has been reached by now

Still, anyone can make predictions and hey, who really cares anyway? The truth will out.

[adoraz]

11. its very simple logic:

he is currently polling far better in Indiana than he did in PA and Ohio a few weeks before their primaries.

Republicans and Independents will vote too, and they favor him.

worst case scenario, he loses by 5% which will still be a win for him (though I admit, not nearly as good a win as actually winning).

[MattNC]

34. Republicans can't vote n/t

[adoraz]

35. In Indiana they can

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

16. Hillary 's support is bleeding away, only an 8% margin in PA her "ancestral home" state

and where the entire Rendell machinary was in play for her.

and where precincts in Philly were shorted voting machines.

[DUyellow]

24. "It will all be over on march 4th"

[adoraz]

25. I never said that.

[bowens43]

26. Huh?

He cust hillarys 20+ lead to single digits. He ha it figured out. It's thge hilbots who need to do some figuring.

[tabasco]

37. He gained ten percentage points in Pa.

If he does that in NC, he will win by 30 points.

What was your point again?

[Sensitivity]

3. The same ATTACTS OF CHARACTER AND PATRIOTISM that pulled the white vote in PA will work in IN

Please explain why not. Hillary's adds essentialy discredit Obama as a candidate for middle america (code for conservative whites).

[adoraz]

22. there are a lot of reasons why:

The 2 newest polls actually have him winning by 5%. There haven't been too many polls in Indiana yet, but pretty much every single poll in PA had her winning (aside from PPP). Not to mention, Obama greatly cut down her lead in the time he spent there. He still has yet to spend a lot of time in Indiana. He is doing better in Indiana polling than Ohio and PA polling because:
-It is next to Illinois
-Independents can vote
-Republicans can vote

[anonymous171]

5. Agreed.

:kick:

[knixphan]

6. Let's go Indy!

[IndianaJones]

7. lots of typical white people in Indiana. nt.

[anonymous171]

9. He's half-white. He also won WA (4.4 % AA population) and VT.

[Cronus Protagonist]

12. I thought he was half black?

No wait, he's going to be our first black president. No wait, "half-white" president.

:P

lol

[IndianaJones]

28. depends on who he is pandering to. nt.

[Cronus Protagonist]

30. Haha, so I see :P n/t

[kdmorris]

13. and what is a "typical white person"?

Someone who won't vote for Obama?

[IndianaJones]

14. a racist. nt.

[anonymous171]

15. What you mean Hillary's newfound base?

:rofl:

[IndianaJones]

19. Among others....it necessarily includes the vast majority of white people. nt.

[Cronus Protagonist]

31. According to Obama, that's true

If his racist grandmother is his example of a typical white person. LOL

[IndianaJones]

32. I've been using the term "typical white person" for years...he knows exactly what he was saying.

His supporters think its cool though, thats all that matters.

[kdmorris]

36. Oh

Good thing Iowa and Delaware and Connecticut don't have any white people in them.

[DJ13]

17. Mike Barnacle said much the same thing this morning

He said that the supers he knows have told him most supers want to endorse Obama but they want to wait until his next victories to do it.

(Real gutsy types....)

He said they are planning on moving right after Obama wins NC and Indiana.

[Dyllyn]

18. HI there

I like the way you figured that out . So I better get the fridge stocked up with beer for the 6th as it will be a long glorious night hehe!!

[helderheid]

23. I have lotsa champagne stocked up!

[rniel]

20. She needs to start

A color coded terror alert. Everytime Obama has any positive news she can change the color to negate it.

[DUyellow]

21. INDIANA is open, that scares me.

[adoraz]

29. why?

Indiana polls show Independents and Republicans heavily favor Obama.

You could say "Well they could all start voting for Clinton to keep the race going", but people said this in other states yet he continues to win with Republicans. Yes, there will be a significant amount doing this, but as long as he wins more Republican votes than she does, it will be worth it being open. Oh, and of course Independents will go for Obama.

[DUyellow]

38. I hope you are right!

[Indenturedebtor]

27. I agree

I'll eat my laptop if Obama doesn't win Indiana by a few points.

[B2G]

33. Maybe, but

can you illustrate that mathmatically?