What makes anyone think "white working class voters" would vote for Hillary over McCain?

[dailykoff]

I'm hearing NPR mockingbirds hump Hillary's "electability" advantage and right now one of their Hillbots is giving Obama superdelagate Tim Miller of North Carolina a hard time on the race issue: "Does it worry you that Hillary's stunning victory last night points to Obama's weakness with white working class men?" "Have you given any thought to the fact that your constituents might feel differently?" Major barf alert.

But it's delusional to think that Reagan Democrats would ever vote for Clinton against McCain in the GE. It just ain't gonna happen, nevah nevah nevah. So can we PLEASE put the electability lie to bed right now?

[democrattotheend]

1. They didn't vote for Kerry or Gore

I don't have a dataset but I doubt they voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 either. He lost the white vote overall, so if he won the white working class it was by a pretty narrow margin.

[dailykoff]

2. I think a lot more voted for Kerry than we know.

But even that cohort would be highly unlikely to vote for Hillary.

[joeybee12]

7. You gotta figure that Ross Perot took a lot of these votes in 92...

...but that doesn't mean they would have gone for George I if Ross weren't running.

Kerry and Gore got about 43% of this group, and the conventional "wisdom" is that the Dem needs about 45%.

[joeybee12]

3. Your ability to see the future is amazing. The election is 7 months away

and you already see how so many people will vote. Wow!

[dailykoff]

8. I'm speaking as a white working class Dem male

and telling you what I know.

[joeybee12]

9. "nevah, nevah, nevah"!

I repeat, Wow!

[democracy1st]

17. thank you

[dailykoff]

18. You're welcome!

:hi:

[DerekJ]

4. Idiots!!, Obama's base is pretty much the REAL democratic base.

Yeah I said real, the ones that don't call FOX fair and balanced. Sorry!!

[Cant trust em]

6. If by "base" you mean the segment of the party that volunteers,

phone banks, canvasses, caucuses, donates AND votes. Instead of Hillary's base that pretty much just does the latter.

[DerekJ]

12. The more educated, the more liberal, the tolerant, and most importantly, they're good at math :)

[Cant trust em]

14. education level isn't really that important to me, but

I'm pissed that I (young people) am expected to do all of the work and then for everyone to suck up to a bunch of wishy washy swing voters. I'm heavily involved here. They should be asking me what I want in a president. Not a bunch of people who get in the game for two days a year.

[malik flavors]

5. That's exactly what I was thinking earlier. It's possible they just prefer a woman over a black guy.

But, if it's McCain verse Hillary alot of them might jump ship and vote red. Leaving Hillary without the youth vote, African American vote, Activist vote, or Reagen democrat vote.

And many dems will be upset about the supers overturning the will of the people, so it will be a depressed party overall.
Atleast Obama won't have to blow up the party, and his voters will stay with him. Who knows what Reagan dems might do in the general.

It's not a safe bet to just assume these people will stick with Hillary.

[Kaleva]

10. "white working class men"

They tend to go Republican in the GE. I got into a number of discussions about the white vote after the 2004 election and what I say now might not be entirely accurate as I'm relying on memory. I believe the last Democrat candidate for President to win a majority of the white vote was LBJ in 1964. Bush, in 2004, won a majority of the white vote in California, Illinois, Michigan, and some other states that Kerry carried. Bush won a majority of the white male vote in others. Very few blue states did Kerry win a majority of the white male vote.

While I believe it's a truism to say that Obama would have a tough row to how with white working class voters in the GE, the same can be said for Hillary.

[dailykoff]

13. Exactly. Shills keep yakking about a "core Democratic constituency"

Hillary supposedly has a lock on, white working class men, and the fact is they're nothing of the sort. She might win them in a primary against Obama by race-baiting but in a GE she wouldn't have a chance.

[lumberjack_jeff]

15. I don't think it's necessary to win all of 'em.

... just enough that they don't overwhelm support from women and minorities.

I've stayed away from "electability" discussions because it makes as much sense as arguing about religion. You don't know what's going to happen until it's too late.

Nevertheless, the Obama base is very systematic and sincere in their attempts to make their club as exclusive as possible. I think that it is possible for Obama to appeal to a significant portion of the working class vote were it not for the condescending subtext of the campaign.

I have to wonder what some of these assholes learned in school if they think that calling voters in other states whom they have never met "old racists" or "IWF's" is a good way to get them to vote for your candidate.

[anonymous171]

11. I remember one interview where the Clinton supporter expressed

concerns over Obama's "support of Gay Rights." Yep, totally a repug in the GE.

[aquarius dawning]

16. real clear politics poll averages and primary election results. That's all.

[susankh4]

19. There is one very excellent reason they will....

Bill.

We don't have to like it... but many working class folks in these parts view the Clinton years as the best time in their lives. They had good jobs. They saved for retirement. They bought homes.....

Those of us on the ground in OH, IN, KY, PA, W.Va ..... we hear it all the time. I travel through all these states on business. My bumper sticker says "Remember the Budget Surplus: Clinton 08" and they comment on it all the time. At gas stations especially.

[dailykoff]

22. That's a good point.

I guess my answer is that a) these voters are tuned in enough to vote for the Dem no matter who it is, which is one reason I think Obama will win if he ever gets his GE campaign started, and b) hard-core Reagan Democrats -- the type Hillary is claiming as her own -- are the ones who vote on wedge issues like abortion and gay marriage and I'm pretty certain they wouldn't vote for Hillary in the GE.

[Marrah_G]

20. Everyone that I know would.

[Vinca]

21. I think if the Democrats are ever in a position to point out the differences

between McBush and the Democrats, anyone with half a brain will vote Democratic. Besides a continuation of Bush policies, McCain will be responsible for probably a quadrupling or more of uninsured if his healthcare (so-called) policies are instituted. Here's a guy who stands in front of a boarded up steel plant and tells the crowd free trade is a good thing. Once the voters know John McCain is more than a POW, the choice will be obvious. Anyone over McCain.

[dailykoff]

23. Yes and no. Obama yes, Hillary no.

Obama has two issues going for him: the war and the economy. Unfortunately, Hillary supported both the Iraq war and NAFTA, and has no real standing against McCain on those issues. She'd get Mondale-Ferraroed or worse.

[Vinca]

24. As much as I dislike Hillary (and you have no idea), I think a tree stump

would have a good chance against McCain. The problem with Hillary has nothing to do with policies and everything to do with Bill. Nothing would unify the Republicans more than that pair running for the White House. Even so, enough of the moderate Republicans might keep their senses about them to elect her. I think Obama's chances are much, much better.

[dailykoff]

25. If she's really planning to run in the fall, she's making a lousy case.

She's running to the right of McCain, which gives everybody a reason to reject her and leaves swing voters with no excuse NOT to vote for McCain.

She'd lose against McCain I'm certain, but I don't think she's even planning to get that far -- she's just trying to weaken Obama. :shrug: