She only picked up 10 in PA -- check my math here

[Yael]

Pledged by district:
Clinton – 54
Obama -- 49

At-Large:
Clinton – 19
Obama -- 16

PLEO:
Clinton – 11
Obama -- 9

Someone check my math here, but of the 158 allocated, I am getting 84 to 74

I used this: http://content.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/results.aspx?sp=pa&oi=p&rti=e

To update this: http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Pennsylvania_2008_presidential_primary_and_superdelegates

Noting that the USA Today has district 7 wrong (should be 7) and 11 wrong (should be 5).

Where are people getting 11 and 12 in gains from?

[DerekJ]

1. It’s a 10 and according some DUer, there are 2 districts that are still counting that can turn it to

6 delegates lead only. We're waiting still.

[Yael]

3. He already picked up the bonus delegates in those

by winning 67-33 (threshold for a 5-2 split was 64.3) and 77-23 (threshold for a 7-2 split was 72.2).

[JimGinPA]

2. More Sexist Math!

[Yael]

4. Its ObamaMath. Unlike HillMath -- it is grounded in reality

Sexist or not.

:D

[sakura]

23. Nope, it's just math. Plain ol' unpartisan math.

[thoughtcrime1984]

5. Good to hear, she got very little out of PA, but more carnival barker attention

which is worth some more money out of her base. Her prize is that she gets to continue to walk over hot coals with no shoes on.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

6. You best check with Taxmyth...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5642962

:evilgrin:

[Yael]

8. Cool thread!

I love math. :D

[FrenchieCat]

7. while the media carries the water of the candidate who cannot win

how convenient!

[Tatiana]

9. Pennsylvania is essentially a loss for Clinton. She needed to run up the tab.

Her only remaining strongholds are West Virginia and Kentucky. They have a combined pledged delegate total of 79.

Obama's remaining strongholds are North Carolina and Oregon, which have a combined pledged delegate total of 167.

Indiana, with 72 pledged delegates up for grabs, is leaning Obama.

It's over. There is no way for her to win. Even if she takes this to the convention, she will still lose because some of those California and New York voters are going to switch to Obama. Give her Florida. She still loses because the majority of the Michigan delegation (which will be seated) will vote for Obama.

She is campaigning, in my opinion, for a spot on the ticket as VP. That is the only reason for the continued exercise in futility.

[Yael]

10. If she wants to be a VP, she needs to unsink her teeth from his leg

She is trying to destroy him.

Bill Richardson ran a fantastic "I wanna be a VP" campaign. Hillary could learn volumes from him.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. Good point ! Can you imagine if they were forced together - Yikes

it would be like having to work in the same cubicle as your
least favorite person at work. And she'd probably be
in there every 5 seconds - saying "Did you do this yet?"

[mamalone]

20. *shudders*

wow...perfect analogy... frightening, but perfect:scared:

And you know what? She'd probably be convinced that her name on the ticket was what *really* got Obama elected:eyes:

[DesertFlower]

14. she doesn't want to be VP.

she wants the #1 spot and i think she would be a liability to obama.

[Tatiana]

21. She thinks she can win (long-term) by destroying him.

There is no reason for her to continue this destruction; it is not going to gain her the nomination.

But, I'll bet she is counting on him crying "uncle." She halts her attack dogs and withdraws, he adds her to the ticket. Think about it. Is this not a Clintonian way of thinking? She has four years of being up-close to him and will hopefully gain enough ammunition to try again.

I don't understand why people don't understand that this is all about power, ambition and control for the Clintons. Make no mistake... if John Edwards were in Obama's position, we'd be seeing her trying to personally destroy him and Elizabeth as well.

If PA results are as you predicted, this is good news. One step closer to being with Hillary Clinton in a national race.

[Orsino]

22. Essentially, maybe. But it played as a double-digit win on TV, which was perhaps as important...

...for her keeping her campaign alive. It's a win, and one to be proud of, but I don't see it making much difference in the end.

[mkultra]

28. it only matters if it translates into the 10m they are claiming

If not, then its over.

[grantcart]

11. Demconwatch 80 to 68

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/04/pennsylvania-primary-results.html with 10 un allocated


Different sources and the results



Source . . Clinton . . . Obama

DCW . . . 80 . . . . . . 68

Green Papers 84 . . . . . . 74

AP . . . . . 80 . . . . . . 71

NBC . . . . 80 . . . . . . 71

CBS . . . . .82 . . . . . . 73

CNN . . . . .81 . . . . . . 69

[Yael]

12. I disagree with his numbers

The allocation is a formula based on the outcome of the statewide results for At Large and PLEO. We don't have things like "weighted" districts -- each district has a stated number of delegates with a threshold for extra delegates (threshold and split determined on the district level). All of this has been taken into account.

The only unknowns right now are 3 Supers yet to be named.

It is all documented in the second link of the OP.

If he is seeing 10 unallocated, I can't find that anywhere.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

15. smartypants :)

[Yael]

16. LOL!

I am a reformed Republican. All we had to do was say, "who won" and that was that.

This has been fascinating to me to watch how all of the states divvy up their delegates.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

30. so, what's your feel for Indiana?

the latest poll has O up 5 (but prior to PA)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html

[Yael]

17. I just noticed that you posted this the other day

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5623005

I had bookmarked it to check back. This guy (gal?) was right on the money.

Thats a little scary. LOL!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

29. I'm not sure - I found this via a link on realclearpolitics - which

of course, I can't find again. Anyone who name everyone in

charge of each district, has got to know something, huh.

[grantcart]

18. demcowatch doesn't really have numbers they wait for consensus and post that

so they really are the most reliable - in the sense that they are final.

If you look at GP Green Paper numbers they agree with yours and Demconwatch usually goes with GP so in fact you are in agreement.

[Yael]

19. Gotcha. I am still curious where the "uncommitted" line item is coming from.

[grantcart]

24. did you see this?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5657489&mesg_id=5657489

[Yael]

27. Yes I did -- and think it is fantastic. I remain cautiously optimistic.

Yes, yes we can.

:D

On Edit -- I want the SD Watch page to be right, so will be tracking any news coming out. If not posted here as an OP -- can you PM me?

[grantcart]

25. demconwatch isn now 82 -72 with 3 left to allocate

[Yael]

26. Thanks much!!

This unallocated thing is bugging me. It is automatic. Not in who the players are, but in the count.