NY Times Thursday: Obliterating Hillary's Electability Meme

[cali]

by Steven R
Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 09:13:54 PM PDT
NY Times Thursday blows a Trailer Park Sized hole in the Clintons' electability fantasy.

Exit polling and independent political analysts offer evidence that Mr. Obama could do just as well as Mrs. Clinton among blocs of voters with whom he now runs behind. Obama advisers say he also appears well-positioned to win swing states and believe he would have a strong shot at winning traditional Republican states like Virginia.

According to surveys of Pennsylvania voters leaving the polls on Tuesday, Mr. Obama would draw majorities of support from lower-income voters and less-educated ones — just as Mrs. Clinton would against Mr. McCain, even though those voters have favored her over Mr. Obama in the primaries.

And national polls suggest Mr. Obama would also do slightly better among groups that have gravitated to Republican in the past, like men, the more affluent and independents, while she would do slightly better among women.
Why is Hillary weak with Educated Voters? Men? Blacks? Western State Democrats? Young Voters???

Steven R's diary :: ::
Does it say something about a candidate if they consistently win the Educated? And what does it say about your opponent if they're strongest with the Under Educated??? Anyhow, more on the NY Times Torpedo through Hillary's Meme Du Jour

Mr. Hart, as well as Obama advisers, also say that Mr. Obama appears better poised than Mrs. Clinton to pick up states that Democrats struggle to carry, or rarely do, in a general election, like Colorado, Iowa, Missouri and Virginia, all of which he carried in the primaries. Obama advisers say their polling indicates he is more popular with independents, and far less divisive than Mrs. Clinton, in those states.

“Hillary goes deeper and stronger in the Democratic base than Obama, but her challenge is that she doesn’t go as wide,” Mr. Hart said. “Obama goes much further reaching into the independent and Republican vote, and has a greater chance of creating a new electoral map for the Democrats.”
Of Course however, if you were to listen to Bill Clinton, Only one segment of voters count... White Working Class who he claims Obama has forsaken.

"And today her opponent's campaign strategist said, 'well we don't really need these working class people to win, half the time they vote for Republicans anyways. And I will tell you something, America needs you to win and therefore Hillary wants your support and I hope you will help her in this primary in North Carolina," continued the former president.

Clinton may have been referring to comments made by Obama strategist, David Alexrod. “The white working class has gone to the Republican nominee for many elections, going back even to the Clinton years. This is not new that Democratic candidates don’t rely solely on those votes," Axelrod told NPR.

<snip>

much more here:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/24/01354/9055/201/502207

[H2O Man]

1. Thank you.

Very interesting article.

Nominated.

[datopbanana]

5. sweater guy, tie guy, flannel guy?

or boxer guy?

[Hope And Change]

2. Thanks for posting.It`s an interesting read.

K & R!


:kick:

[democracy1st]

3. K & R

[PetraPooh]

4. K& R Excellent post. Here's the direct link to the entire NYT article.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/24/us/politics/24clinton.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1209031296-h5DU/EuVBl1wjCwTH9lLfQ

[cali]

6. thanks for adding that, PetraPooh

facts certainly blow a hole in the Hillary is more electable meme- and the Obama isn't electable at all.

[PetraPooh]

7. I agree. I have to admit, I am finally wishing it was over and the Clinton's were

archived.

[FrenchieCat]

9. Thanks! I needed that.

[cboy4]

8. This is a good photograph from the article

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton on a flight to Washington on Tuesday after re-energizing her Democratic presidential primary campaign by beating Senator Barack Obama in Pennsylvania.

[chknltl]

10. Thanks for posting this

It makes me feel good to be among the supporters of Senator Obama. KnR

[NJSecularist]

11. This article loses all its credibility when it says Obama could reshape the electorate in the South

and win a state there.

[FrenchieCat]

14. Why? Have you compared demographics and done some analysis

of the Southern states they mentioned?

Can you provide some stats to back up your statement?

[NJSecularist]

15. Yes I did. There isn't one state in the South that Obama will carry.

There are only two states where Obama will come within 10 points of, and those are Virginia and North Carolina.

[cali]

16. sorry, you didn't provide a drop of evidence.

the article does. pulling shit out of thin air doesn't constitute evidence. Obama is competitive in both NC and VA.

[NJSecularist]

17. Kerry lost North Carolina by 12 points despite having the native son on the ballot with him.

North Carolina is still years away from going Democrat in a 50/50 election.

Obama will likely do better than Kerry, but he will not win the state. He might come within 8-10 points, but that is about it. In Virginia, Obama will probably do better than Kerry but he'll still lose the state by 5-7 points.

Obama having any chance to win Virginia and North Carolina is wishful thinking.

[cali]

19. this isn't 2004, dear.

and polls show him running even with McCain. You're simply speculating on wishful thinking. You've made it clear that you don't want Obama to be electable. And VA, most of the pundits agree, is in play for Obama. Of course, you just know so much more than they do. not.

[NJSecularist]

21. So both states will magically swing 10 points to the Democrats?

"Most pundits agree" is not a good argument. Show me where the Democratic growth is in North Carolina and Virginia. Show me why that is good enough for both states to swing 10 points to Obama. The latest polls in Virginia tell us Obama down +8 to McCain (Rasmussen) and down +11 to McCain (SurveyUSA). I guess that is "in play" I suppose. Only in an Obama dream world.

[cali]

31. it's not magic. read what peter hart, one of the savviest and most

respected dem pollsters/pundits has to say. And the dem growth in VA is evident in the 2006 election, and I'm not just talking about Webb's narrow win. Look at the gains at the state level. VA has had a dem guv for years, an increasing number of dems in the legislature. Dems will hold both U.S Senate seats in VA next year, and we'll almost certainly pick up Davis' seat in the House and we have a chance of picking up another house seat. That's reality. That's your evidence. Not that hillbots dwelling in delusional hilllyworld have a foot in the real world.

[NJSecularist]

32. Webb is a blue dog Democrat. Warner is a blue dog Democrat.

A liberal Democrat like Obama is not winning Virginia in the real world. Maybe in an Obamite dream world, but not in the real world.

[cali]

34. lol. the arrogance of the delusional hillbot shines on!

that will be done shortly, dear. And neither Warner or Webb is so easy to pigeon hole- or the gov, Tim Kaine. Why would I believe Hart over the likes of some anonymous internet poster who vehemently supports Obama one week and Hilly the next? :rofl: :rofl:

CREDIBIlITY. He has it. YOU? :rofl:

[my3boyz]

41. Yes, he will win Virginia. I live here and people are SICK of this war!

I think that is a large part why Webb won. Obama will have Kaine, Warner and Webb campaigning for him. It will be close but Obama will win.

[onenote]

36. You don't think 10 point swings from one party to the other are possible in an election?

For someone who claims to have actually done some real analysis to back up your claim you appear to be woefully uninformed about history.

First, let's clear something up. To turn around a 10 point margin, you need to switch 5.1 percent of the voters.

Second, it can and does happen more often than you think. If you don't think so, compare the 1976 election with the 1980 election.

Alabama: Carter wins in 1976 by 13; in 1980 he loses by 1
Ark: Carter wins in 1980 by 30; in 1980 he loses by 1
And I could go on and on.

Will Obama break through in the South? I can't guarantee it. Can he? Yes. McCain isn't popular with the fundies and a lot of the southern fundies may just stay home. A lot will depend on factors as yet unknown. Who are the VP candidates? What is happening with the war? With the economy?

What we know is that the table is set at the moment for the Democrats to pick up far more support than Kerry got in 2004.

Looking forward to your counter evidence

[NJSecularist]

42. My counter evidence is that unless Obama wins the popular vote margin by 10 points like Ray Gun

There won't be any 10 point swings among any states, especially reliably Republican states like North Carolina and Virginia.

[Alexander]

20. Virginia is in play...

as well as Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Montana, North Dakota, and Kansas...

With Obama, anyway.

[NJSecularist]

22. Montana, North Dakota and Kansas?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[my3boyz]

40. Edwards was not popular in North Carolina. I heard he wouldn't

have been able to win his senate seat again if he wanted to. I like Edwards but apparently a lot of people in North Carolina do not. Also, I thought he was a native of South Carolina?

[GoldieAZ49]

18. Shhhh, don't burst their bubble

they want to be surprised!!

They think the south might go for Obama, and maybe Idaho and Utah will too!!!

History no longer matters!


:rofl:

[NJSecularist]

23. Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama... they all go for Obama!

Don't forget about Alaska, Texas and South Dakota!!!!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[FrenchieCat]

24. laughing doesn't help your candidate......

who has no chance of winning either the primary or the GE.

Now you can laugh about that if you want to.

[NJSecularist]

25. Saying that Obama can win Georgia and Mississippi help your candidate either.

Or even Virginia and North Carolina.

[GoldieAZ49]

28. laughing does help

when you realize some dems think Obama can win a GE, or maybe they just don't want to win

:rofl:

write off another 8 years to the repubs in the White House

[cali]

26. nope. I think Obama could win VA

and it's possible, but less likely that he could win NC. In VA, there's a very popular ex-gov running for the Senate and it's been trending blue. Of course, we know hilly with her sky high negatives would have a much tougher time winning the ge. Anyone with 58% negative disapproval has a huge problem. O course hill is fucked in the here and now, and barring a miracle we won't have to deal with those overwhelmingly bad approval ratings. thank the goddess for that, eh?

[NJSecularist]

27. Only Blue Dog Democrats can win in Virginia. And even then they would have an uphill battle.

A liberal senator like Obama will not carry the state, especially at the national level. It is still years away from moving to the Democrats at the presidential level.

[cali]

33. really?

Scott and Moran.

[GoldieAZ49]

29. sure is, if you like the sound of President McCain

which you obviously do

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 45%. Obama’s ratings are 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable.

[cali]

38. Peter Hart or little old you? hmm. I think I'll go with the prominent

dem pollster/pundit. And McCain doesn't have an opponent yet. Let's wait and see what the polls say when he's had one for a month or so. Even with those ratings, Obama is competitive now with Mccain, and you hillbots really,really don't want to be talking about unfavorables when hilly has a 58% unfavorable rating. The arrogance of hillbots is something to behold! :rofl:

[roseBudd]

39. You forgot to mention her dishonesty quotient!!! It is HUGH!

[ima_sinnic]

44. how convenient that you failed to mention HIllary's unfavorable of 54% as of 4/16

oh, maybe she gained a point or two after PA -- but talk about liking "the sound of President McCain."

Also, "In hypothetical general-election matchups, Obama holds a slim, five-point lead over McCain, while McCain is three points ahead of Clinton, which is within poll's margin of error."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/15/AR2008041503586.html?hpid=topnews

It is also well known that, overall, Democrats have been polling anywhere from 4% to 11% preference for Obama as the nominee for some time now in daily Gallup polls.

But feel free to be deluded as the slow-motion Hillary train wreck happens all around you.

[GoldieAZ49]

45. actually it is 55%

after 16 years of attacks from the right

Obama is just starting to attacks

The NC ad

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXxkctYRAZQ

and Obama's Willie Horton ad (same guy)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0IcnYWGSSE


And all the other new and as yet unknown Obama material

He will most likely be the nominee, and some here are never going to know what hit them

[SunsetDreams]

12. Excellent article! Thank you for posting! K&R

[Scurrilous]

13. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Window]

30. K/R.

:kick:

[Austinitis]

35. Don't be a twit. The Article is titled: For Democrats, Questions Over Race and Electability

They're obviously throwing doubt on the idea that Obama can be elected:

But just when it seemed that the Democratic Party was close to anointing Mr. Obama as its nominee, he lost yet again in a big general election state, dragged down by his weakness among blue-collar voters, older voters and white voters. The composition of Mrs. Clinton’s support — or, looked at another way, the makeup of voters who have proved reluctant to embrace Mr. Obama — has Democrats wondering, if not worrying, about what role race may be playing.

“I’m sure there is some of that,” said David Axelrod, Mr. Obama’s senior political adviser, as he considered how race was playing among voters in late primary states. Mr. Axelrod said Mrs. Clinton’s biggest advantage had been among older voters, “and I think there is a general inclination on the part of the older voters to vote for what is more familiar.” He added: “Here’s a guy named Barack Obama, an African-American guy, relatively new. That’s a lot of change.”

“The big question about Barack Obama from the very beginning has been, Is he safe?” said Peter D. Hart, a Democratic pollster not affiliated with any campaign. “Safe in terms of both the cultural values that he has, and about whether he is strong enough to be commander in chief.”

[roseBudd]

37. Hillary is Chicken Little, we know how that turned out, liars are not believed

[Medusa]

43. And that is very evident in her "trust" numbers

people know she's a liar and they do not trust her in the least. We've already got a very unpopular president the people of America don't trust. We dont' need another.