Which of these three swing states will Obama win for us in a general election?

[aquarius dawning]

[cali]

1. I think he can win Ohio and Missouri

Please remember that this is the worst economy we've seen in a presidential election year in over 7 decades. And like Peter Hart, I also think he can win VA and CO. And please don't twist my words: I'm not saying he will win- that's unknowable- simply that it's quite possible.

[aquarius dawning]

5. In Ohio, according to RCP averages, he loses to McCain by 2.6 points whereas Hillary wins by 5 pts.

I live in Ohio and I know he'll do poorly in rural areas and do well in urban areas. That probably won't be enough. He'll need to break into the rural areas. I haven't seen much data on Missouri suprisingly. It seems pretty red to me though.

[cali]

8. actually you don';t KNOW that.

you're offering an opinion. And look, at the risk of repeating myself ad nauseum, the economy in this presidential election year will be the worst since 1932.

[aquarius dawning]

10. I'm only going by the polls at RCP. They have him losing Ohio to McCain by 2.6

and Hillary wins by 5.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html">Obama versus McCain in Ohiohttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_clinton-399.html">Clinton versus McCain in Ohio

Missouri data is limited but they are trending increasingly red in Presidential elections, not decreasingly. Kerry lost bigger than Gore.

[Dawgs]

2. Why did you pick those three?

He also has a great chance to win Virginia, NC, New Mexico and Louisiana.

[aquarius dawning]

7. because I didn't have enough slots for all of those

& I'm trying to limit this to the big three swing states in order to keep the debate simple. I could have included PA too but I see PA as being safely blue these days. Maybe you could start anotherpoll about the staes you listed?

[Vinca]

3. I'm saying Missouri and Colorado.

Florida will never go Democratic this year, no matter who is running. I don't count Ohio because the voter fraud in that state is so great you can't predict what will happen. Many Republicans can't stand McCain, so whether they'll be inclined to commit crimes to get him elected is up in the air. Hillary's chance of winning Ohio and Florida is the same as Obama's.

[tekisui]

4. Ohio and Missouri, and Colorado and Virginia.

Perhaps even NC. If Barr makes a decent showing, GA could be in play.

[Tyler Durden]

6. What doth it profit a man....

If he gain Ohio and Missouri but lose Michigan and Florida?

Which, by the way, is very, very possible.

[aquarius dawning]

9. I don't really think he'll win Ohio or Missouri anyways.

McCain beats him in ohio according to the polls I've seen and, let's face it, Obama is going to hita brick wall in Missouri because of his race and his ideological positions. And I definitely agree with you about Michigan and most especially Florida. McCain kills him in Florida wheras the McCain/Clinton matchup has McCain up by 0.3%, well within the MOE. I haven't seen much data about Michigan. It's definitely a swing state though.

[democrattotheend]

20. I saw a poll recently showing Obama stronger against McCain in Michigan than Clinton

I was kind of surprised by it, given the turmoil over the primary. But people I know from Michigan know the true story (how Granholm moved up the primary to help Clinton and Michigan Dems decided to flout the rules despite being given an opportunity to apply to go first through the DNC process). Plus, I would assume that if Clinton loses the nomination she will eventually endorse Obama, and her supporters like Granholm and Bill Nelson will be able to step back a little from the harsh rhetoric about them being disenfranchised in the primary. And remember that the Republicans also punished Michigan and Florida by stripping half their delegates (which is what I think the DNC ought to do with Florida), so they are not really in a position to criticize us that much.

[Tyler Durden]

23. Whatever.

I'm sick of "who shot John."

[Tesha]

11. Clinton and Obama will *BOTH* likely lose in the General Election.

With Clinton, it's a certainty.

With Obama, it's merely a likelihood.

We ejected the actual *WINNING* candidate(s) from the
race quite some time ago.

Tesha

[aquarius dawning]

12. I'm not asking about the General election. I'm asking about 3 big swing states.

what evidence do you have to support your position that BO has a better chance than HC?

[Crabby Appleton]

13. Isn't "evidence" a idiotic concept when talking about opinions?

[Tyler Durden]

15. LOVE the name. I'm old enought to remember "Tom Terrific"

and Mighty Manfred, The Wonder Dog!


TeeeeeeeeeeeeRIFICIC!

[Tesha]

14. Inferred in my remark is my vote that Obama would lose all three states you mentioned.

But so would Clinton.

And in doing so, both would be assured of losing the General
Election; I'm sorry that I wasn't willing to constrain my
opinions to just responding to your obviously-baiting
poll question.

Meanwhile, as "evidence" that Clinton will *SOUNDLY BE
DEFEATED* in the General Election, one only needs to
look at her "unfavorable" ratings. Thanks to her recent
campaign, efforts, she is now looked upon negatively by
more than 60% of Americans. Only a fool (or someone who
really wanted to see the Republicans win) would run her
as our candidate in the General Election.

Tesha

[DemVet]

25. Uh...

...your post makes no sense.

You do realize that by asking about "swing states," you WERE asking about the GE, right?

[joeybee12]

16. None of the above, but Ohio is a possibility because I think it's very

blue these days...the other two are true swing states also, and he won't get those.

[democrattotheend]

21. In the general, Obama will have Strickland and Brown at his disposal if he is the nominee

One of the reasons she won so big in Ohio was because she had Strickland and his team at her disposal to help her. Governors are huge assets in industrial states, which is one of the reasons I think Clinton did so well in Ohio and Pennsylvania and Obama did so well in Wisconsin. If Obama is the nominee he will have Strickland and his team behind him, and that ought to help. Ohio also has a Democratic secretary of state now, which is huge in terms of protecting the integrity of the vote.

[slick8790]

17. Probably Ohio, but he really doesn't need any of them.

Adding CO, IA, NM and possibly VA and NV equals a win.

[democrattotheend]

19. He needs Iowa plus either Virginia or Colorado combined with New Mexico or Nevada

I think Iowa and New Mexico are doable for either Democrat...Gore won those states and Kerry barely lost them. Clinton would probably have a bit of an easier time taking back New Mexico because of the Latino population, but polls have shown Obama MUCH stronger than Clinton against McCain in Iowa.

Nevada went for Clinton in the primaries but a few polls have shown Obama polling better there against McCain in the general than Clinton. He also looks stronger in Colorado. Virginia is going to be tough for either of them but I think Obama has a shot...I concede that Clinton's strong showing in Ohio and Pennsylvania means she will probably have an easier time in those states than Obama, and by the same token, I think Obama's landslide victory in the Virginia primary bodes well for him in the fall. Maybe I am biased because I live in Obama Country (Arlington), but I also think black turnout would be higher in Virginia with Obama on the ticket, and that could help put the state in play.

[democrattotheend]

18. Ohio is doable. Missouri might be.

Florida is going to be tough, but Democratic strategists I know were counting it out back when we thought Clinton would be the nominee. She might make it more competitive and there is something to be said for making McCain spend money there, but I don't think she can count on winning it.

I will concede that Clinton looks stronger in the states you mentioned, and that the Rust Belt is going to be tough for Obama. But he seems to poll better than Clinton against McCain in the upper midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and surprisingly even Michigan, according to one poll I saw recently). He also looks stronger out west (Colorado, Nevada, Washington, Oregon) than Clinton, and he might put a few more states in play that haven't been in a while. For example, multiple polls recently have shown Obama competitive in North Dakota. I did not believe the first poll, but there have been a few now, and if he could force McCain to campaign in places like Nebraska and North Dakota that alone would be a victory. There have been states that Obama won in the primary primarily because he bothered to show up (Kansas, Idaho, Delaware), and if he pays attention to states that have traditionally been ignored he could put them in play. Hell, a recent poll showed him down only 5 in Alaska! I don't think he can win Alaska, but if he shows them a little attention that they are not used to, he could put it in play.

[TacticalPeek]

22. Current info says none.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Apr20.html

OTOH:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Apr20.html

:shrug:

[BigDDem]

24. He would definitely win Vermont

[Occam Bandage]

26. OH and MO. VA and CO as well.