Election 2008: Minnesota Presidential Election
Minnesota: Obama 52% McCain 38%
Thursday, April 24, 2008
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While Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton still struggling for the nomination, both Democrats have gained ground on John McCain in Minnesota. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows that Barack Obama leads McCain by double-digits, 52% to 38%. A month ago, the Democratic frontrunner’s lead over McCain was just four points. However, the current results for an Obama-McCain are virtually identical to results from February.
Clinton now leads McCain by five percentage points, 47% to 42%. A month ago, they were essentially even. Two months ago, McCain had a five-point lead over Clinton.
Both Democrats lead McCain by more than twenty points among women. Among men, Obama has a slight edge over McCain while Clinton trails the Republican by sixteen. Both Obama and Clinton attract at least 80% of the Democratic vote in Minnesota. That unity has not been found in most other states or nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Minnesota has cast its Electoral College Votes for the Democratic candidate in eight straight elections dating back to 1976. That’s the longest streak in the nation, but the last couple of Democratic victories have been won with modest margins—three percentage points in Election 2004 and two points in Election 2000.
With release of this poll, Minnesota is shifting from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Data from Rasmussen Markets shows Democrats are heavily favored to win the state—current prices give place expectations of a Democratic victory at 80.0 %. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants.
Sixty percent (60%) of Minnesota voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, up from 57% a month ago. McCain’s favorables are at 56%, Clinton’s at 51%.
Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Currently, the three-poll rolling average shows McCain and Clinton tied at 45% while Obama holds an eleven point advantage over McCain, 51% to 40%.
If Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is selected as John McCain’s running mate, 30% of Minnesota voters would be more likely to vote for the GOP ticket. Thirty-five percent (35%) would be less likely to do so and 32% say it would have no impact. Among Republicans, 60% would be more likely to support the ticket. That enthusiasm is shared by 23% of unaffiliated voters and 13% of Democrats.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election
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