"Obama can't win in GE because he didn't win the big states" - rubbish

[Hugabear]

I've heard this argument many times here on DU. Obama is unelectable because he didn't carry the states that really matter (ie the ones that Hillary won). Does anyone really think that states like California and New York are going to go to McCain simply because Obama is the candidate? Does anyone realize what a specious argument this is?

[jackson_dem]

1. He can't win the big swing states. He got as low as 18% in some PA and OH counties...

The last FL poll I saw has him--statewide--at 27% with whites and consequently losing to McSame badly. He also sucks with Latinos, by Democratic standards. Think Kerry, not the success Clinton and Gore had with Latinos.

[VeraAgnes]

6. Well said! It is true!

but the " Denial and False Rhetoric Crowd" will not want to discuss the fact that Obama can't truly win the General Election. The GOP may well be behind fanning this Denial.

[jackson_dem]

12. They care more about the "movement" around the messiah than winning the GE

As long as Obama wins the nomination and they can get their rush who cares if McSame wins? :eyes:

[democrattotheend]

23. I don't.

I don't want Obama to get the nomination if he can't win the general. I think he can and I believe in him, but I have some electability concerns about both candidates. I have talked to political strategists in Washington and asked them if I am crazy to be backing Obama, if he is completely unelectable, and they said it's impossible to know whether Clinton or Obama is the stronger GE candidate. They both have a lot of pluses and minuses in terms of electability, IMO.

[VeraAgnes]

44. Nice post.

It pleases me to see honesty.

Thank you for sharing. O8)

[eboltz]

39. Yeah, that's why they're running attack ads for Clinton

In PA and NC so far. Fox is kissing her butt and attacking Obama. The guy who created "Willie Horton" ran two Obama attack ads to help Clinton in PA and has a really ugly one in NC.

The right knows Obama can't win so they're helping Clinton because they want to lose. I get it.

[carolinayellowdog]

51. Your alleged "fact" is denial and false rhetoric

another one for the ignore list

[madrchsod]

8. i noticed that the latinos

will not vote a for democrat if hillary is`t nominated, so those people will vote for john or not vote at all.

[jackson_dem]

13. Kerry won them 56-44. Obama would have a shot to win or come close to breaking even

The problem is neither the Kerry level margin or breaking even is enough for a Democratic presidential nominee to win, especially one who struggles with white voters like Obama does.

[onenote]

24. and what do you think the repub platform position on immigration is going to look like

and do you think that Latino voters will flock to the repub ticket?

Yes, Obama gets less of the Latino vote when he runs against HRC.

But do you think those Latino voters that support HRC will support McCain over Obama?

I can't wait to see Tancredo's speech at the Repub convention. That will win over Latinos for sure!

[jackson_dem]

36. Have you heard about the Kennedy-McSame immigration bill?

McSame's immigration position is basically the same as Clinton and Obama's. This gives him a very good chance with Latinos. The ace Hillary has is the affection Latinos have toward the Clintons for what they did for the nation and Latinos in the 90's. Obama has no record and no built up goodwill.

[onenote]

38. yes I have. Had you heard that McCain has thrown his former position under the bus?

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2007/03/22/kennedy_mccain_partnership_falters/?page=full

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/1108mccain-immig1108.html

And he will move further during the GE (or will have a VP candidate doing his dirty work for him) -- mark my words.

[Hugabear]

20. Broad brush much?

"those people"?

[madrchsod]

43. i try to be an equal opportunity smart ass today...

i worked with a young democratic latino who asked me why kerry lost...dam i did`t know what to say....maybe the older generation "don`t like" obama but i think the young politically aware people do like obama and will vote for him

[Hugabear]

45. To be perfectly honest, there is a good reason why Gore & Kerry "lost"

And it had nothing to do with either one being the 'lesser' candidate or not getting the votes. There was plenty of voter suppression and fraud going around in both elections.

[onenote]

25. link?

[madrchsod]

41. no link--- being a smart ass

anyone who votes against there own self interest on the democratic side gets what they deserve...

[SeaLyons]

2. ...

CA and NY are blue states. Name red states you think he will carry with any weight.

[slick8790]

5. VA, NV, maybe even MO n/t

[tridim]

7. Colorado too. nt

[jackson_dem]

14. He's losing VA and MO badly in the latest polls. Clinton actually flips more states than he does...

She flips FL, OH, and MO and West Virginia (63 electoral votes). Obama flips only Iowa and Colorado (16 electoral votes). Both candidates now lose Nevada.

[Carrieyazel]

29. I agree with you on Obama's flaws, but Hillary isn't flipping any of those four.

That's the problem. McCain has got to be the favorite in all those states with Hillary or Obama.

There's only three states that can be flipped for Dems: Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico.

McCain could flip: Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin

That's what we're down to now. Basically a half-dozen real battlegrounds.

[jackson_dem]

33. Why don't you think we have a shot in FL and OH?

Clinton is +5 against McSame in Ohio and tied with him in Florida.

[The_Counsel]

30. Since When Is Trailing By An Average Of 8% "Losing Badly...?"

...especially six months before the election?

Considering Obama's well-established and well-documented track record of closing the gap, I'd say OH (-4), MO (-8) and VA (-8) are very much in play -- as are NC (even), SC (-3), TX (-1) NE (-3) and CO (+3). The 50-state strategy will at least keep Obama competitive and force McCain to spend money he probably won't even have. Hillary's "Win All The Big Blue States" strategy probably won't as much.

Just sayin'...

[jackson_dem]

32. Because his numbers will go down in those six months...

If he is down 8 there right now he will lose by double digits. Is Obama immune to what happened to the "new" candidate in 2004, 2000, and 1988? Clinton was an exception but that was because he ran against an incumbent and the incumbent's popularity tanked. Elections with incumbents are always referendums on the incumbent.

Many of the polls you list are from February, when obamamania was at its height. There is no way he is going to win Texas.

[The_Counsel]

40. And You Know This How?

It's called CAMPAIGNING. What you're suggesting is the same defeatist attitude that got Kerry beat in '04. He didn't bother campaigning in the south because polls already showed him losing there. And so he lost there. He didn't even bother campaigning in states like OH and CO until he realized sometime in October "oh wait: that might actually be close! Guess I'd better go pander--I mean--campaign there!"

The idea of the 50-state strategy is to NOT assume you're automatically going to take a loss in a certain state. It's exactly how Bush beat Gore in TN in 2000. Gore ASSUMED he'd win there, while Bush put in the work.

Obama has already proven that he'll at least show his face and put in the work.

The Clinton people continue to deal in assumptions.

And we all know what ASSuming makes one look like... ;)

And no, most of the polls I've mentioned are averages from April...

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Apr24.html

[Hugabear]

46. Because he's buying into the McCain mystique

Once people start to see the real McCain - not just the carefully crafted war hero image - they'll realize just what a nasty person he is, and how much he's just like Bush.

[Carrieyazel]

27. Obama could not win any of those three. Possibly CO, NM, IA.

He has 3 shots to flip a state that went to Shrub in '04. But not the three you mention.

[LSK]

34. Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Colorado, Virginia, Kansas

[TwilightGardener]

3. McCain can't win southern, midwestern, and western states, because Huckabee and Romney

won some of those. The GOP should find someone else, clearly.

[jackson_dem]

17. One reason Romney is being considered for VP is to help McSame in western states...

[TwilightGardener]

19. Do you really think McLame is going to lose the deep South because he

lost some of those states to Huckabee?

[jackson_dem]

22. No because his GE opponent has no appeal to Deep South voters

McSame has appeal to the very voters Obama loses--badly. This is why the supers are nervous.

[TwilightGardener]

26. You're on a different argument now. The argument is that Obama

"can't win" big states because he lost some of them to Hillary (by non-blowout margins, BTW), and so that means he can't win them in the fall. By the same token, that's like assuming McCain can't win IA or GA because folks there preferred Huckabee. Or that he can't be competetive in MN, because they voted for Romney. The argument that losing a state in a primary automatically makes it off-limits in the fall is bogus bullshit.

[jackson_dem]

35. It is bogus

But they can't say in public what everyone has seen in those big states. He can't win because he can't win white working class voters and Latinos. People are reluctant to say so directly in public, especially given what the Obama campaign did to a comment about a fairy tale record on Iraq. Imagine what they would do is Howard Wolfson said "Obama can't win white working class voters and Latinos in the states we must win in the fall"...Everybody is dancing around this. The Clinton camp and skeptical superdelegates publicly say "blue collar workers" while the Obama campaign alternates between hiding behind age or blaming racism.

[Nitrogenica]

4. He won more delegates in Texas.

[madrchsod]

9. texas does`t count and of course, her home state of illinois

[VeraAgnes]

18. Delegates are just another term

for a poker chip. They are only an inside Party Marker-tool. The General Election takes only votes.

[Justitia]

49. .....for voters.

I'm a delegate, certainly not a freaking poker chip and I'm definitely not a party insider.

What a crock.

[BenDavid]

10. gge, had to look up the word specious, but john king tuesday night

showed the 2004 election that kerry barely won by 3% and showed exactly how McCain can carry Pa. this go round.

Oh, and do not forget if it had not been for Bill Clinton making his first public appearance after his surgery on October 25, 2004 rally in Philadelphia, Kerry would have lost that state. Personally, I doubt either Clinton will appear in Pa for obama. But, that is me, but why would b. hussein obama want those racist clintons to campaign for him. Oh, I forget, the clintons are not bigots and racist, only bigot I see in this campaign is obama and his motley crew.

[madrchsod]

11. what an outstanding description of obama and his motley crew!

i know if he`s nominated this unemployed white blue collar old guy will be voting for big john....

[damonm]

47. So we'll have YOU and your selfish petulance to thank

when Roe V. Wade is overturned
When gas hits $5.00 a gallon
When only earned income is taxed
When nobody except the 1%'ers can afford healthcare
When nobody can afford a home
When SS is privatized
When the Constitution is voided once and for all


Just hope that no one thanks you with a Louisville Slugger...


:argh:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

15. Hillary loses Illinois...game over!

Complete bullshit.

[Elidor]

16. All arguments about 'electability' are utter bullshit

And it's especially dumb to imply that the dynamics of the primary are in any way comparable to the dynamics of the general. Josh Marshall has a good post on this today over at TPM.

[NatBurner]

21. exactly

[bowens43]

28. In the long list of stupid arguments

the hillbots make is one of the stupidest.

[kentuck]

31. Can Hillary win CA without the 2 million votes that went to Obama?

Or can she win NY, her home state, withot the 44% of the vote that went to Obama? Or can she win PA without the 1 million votes that went to Obama?

Or does she think those voters will vote for her in the General Election? And what moron would think that those Hillary voters would not go to Obama in the same way?

[wiggs]

37. Total rubbish, as you say. Dem candidate will take PA, CA, NY for sure. And a

dem candidate that can stand in contrast to the politics (misinfo, gutter level lies) and policies of the last 8 years will sure as hell take a lot more states. Any candidate that can shed light on the GOP and WH misdeeds, clearly and without triangulation, will make inroads into states not usually in play.

Obama will roll over McCain despite his pundits' and surrogate's low tactics. Polls suggesting a close race nationally are meaningless at this point.

Anyone saying Obama can't win big states is just a homer...pundits saying this is just another example of politics of smearing and tearing down rather than building up your own candidates.

[gsaguyCLW54]

42. Obama can win the super blue states....

...like NY &CAL....but he will have serious problems in OH, FLA, PA, NJ, MI.....you'll see. I may be far too cynical and I would love for the voters to prove me wrong, but once the GOP starts the attack, Obama will fall fast in the battle ground states.

[doc03]

50. I agree with you on Ohio and PA, I don't think the Obama

supporters have any idea of the disdain people in small town America have for obama after the Rev. Wright thing. This area usually votes Democrat 2-1 over Republicans and I have yet to meet anyone that say they will vote for Obama. Myself I was impressed with Obama at first, then after seeing who his supporters are, Rev. Wright, Lois Farrakhan and Jesse Jackson that was enough for me. I always heard you can judge a man by the company he keeps and from what I see of Obama's friends I want nothing to do with him. There are white racists and there are black racists and those three are the prime examples of it.

[Mooney]

48. It's a complete mountain of utter horseshit,

just like all the other arguments that HRC supporters have invented to bolster the case for their shitty candidate.

California and New York will never, ever go to John McCain, and anyone who says it will is either stupid or lying.

[TheFarseer]

52. It's nonsense

Obama is going to lose New York?!?! You've got to be sh**ting me!!! More like Hillary is going to lose Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, when these are states we can and should win.