It's not that close, and yeah, it's essentially over: Obama is the presumptive nominee

[cali]

Short of a monumental implosion, this is it. Even in the rosiest realistic scenario, Hillary can't whittle his pledged delegate lead down to less than 100. There are only 9 more contests. Dean has made it crystal clear that MI and FL will not be seated in any form unless both candidates agree on it. As a Vermonter, I can assure you that Dean's stubborness is legendary. He will not be changing his mind on this.

It ended in everything but name on Tuesday. Hillary's 9 point win, her small pledged delegate lead and 200,000 popular vote lead, are simply not what she needed out of that state.

I'm not going to do the whole math thing here. There are enough posts on that. Suffice to say, Obama needs far, far less SDs than Hillary. The SD trend couldn't be clearer, and it's clear PA did NOTHING to change that. For whatever reasons, Clinton has alienated a lot of the remaining SDs. That's evidenced by the number that have endorsed Obama- not just since Super Tuesday, but over the last month. And keep in mind that the majority of SDs have already endorsed.

There is no chance, short of a major disaster, of Clinton getting the nomination. Up until Tuesday, I thought there was that chance. Had she won PA by 15+ that might have changed the trajectory.

This won't be going to the convention unsettled. The SDs have clearly signaled that- over and over. Obama will get more SDs every day until NC and after that he'll receive a slew more. This isn't exactly a secret. They won't put him over the top until the primary season has played itself out, but don't blink after PR, it'll happen in a flash then.

I know it's disappointing to put your heart into a candidate and see them lose. Particularly when you've been cheering one on for over a year or for months, but it just isn't going to happen for Clinton.

Warts and all, the next President or a losing candidate in November, Barack Obama will be our nominee.

[TwilightGardener]

1. I agree. People need to get used to it.

[Voice for Peace]

5. I think I can get used to it.

[panader0]

2. Not just our nominee, but our next Prez.

Somehow, things will swing back. The bad BS that has plagued the US and the world for years CAN change. Obama is the right man at the right time. In the nick of time. I can see it and feel it.

[AllexxisF1]

3. Whole heartedly Agree.

I just want to know who is the one that is going to break it to Hillary. Man would I kill to be in the room when that discussion takes place.

[cali]

6. oh, c'mon. she knows. she's hoping for the unlikely

that Obama will self-destruct, and trying her damndest to make it happen without leaving sticky fingerprints all over. When he's put over the top, she'll concede.

[ksoze]

4. did Obama just reach the required delegate count needed?

for nomination? Or is this post just a list of wishes to make yourself feel better? Thanks for sharing your fears, demands and unrealistic slant on the current facts.

[cali]

7. try arguing with the logic.

and the facts in the OP. I'll be glad to discuss any real argument against my post. What's unrealistic? What demand was made? C'mon, pony up or lose the argument.

[ksoze]

16. okay

"Had she won PA by 15+ that might have changed the trajectory."

So she was less than 6 points from it not "being over"? Help me understand the gain in delegates by that number and how it was just that close.

"The SD trend couldn't be clearer, and it's clear PA did NOTHING to change that."

Data please, I see one SD each announced since PA.

"There is no chance, short of a major disaster, of Clinton getting the nomination"

You mean a disaster like winning Indiana, closing the gap in NC and winning others? that kind of "disaster" for Obama?

"Obama will get more SDs every day until NC and after that he'll receive a slew more"

okay nostradamus.

"It ended in everything but name on Tuesday. Hillary's 9 point win, her small pledged delegate lead and 200,000 popular vote lead, are simply not what she needed out of that state."

Her "small SD lead". Oh, that.

[cali]

29. thanks. OK

it wasn't just the number of pledged delegates in PA, it was also perception and momentum. She didn't get enough momentum to change the perception that it's his to lose.

He's won 3 to her 1, Governor Henry, an SD from NE, and Rep Wu, today. It's been widely reported that he has 20 on tap, and will be releasing one or two a day in the lead up to NC and IN. But it's not just the trend over the last two days, but the trend over the last 3 months. He's received over 80. She's netted 6.

No, I mean live boy/dead girl stuff. She cannot close the pledged delegate gap, period. She is extremely unlikely to close the popular vote gap. And Indiana is very close in the polls. SC isn't and she's got money problems.

Her SD lead has been cut to a handful- 21 now, I believe. And I don't need to be Nostradamus. As I said, it's been widely reported that he'll be releasing an SD endorsement a day over the next couple of weeks.

[SoCalDem]

68. She's determined to cheat her way into it, but I don't think she has as many friends

as she thinks...

[BonnieJW]

8. I think she's staying in

so she can get enough money to pay her debts.

[Jersey Devil]

43. We will be able to tell by how much airtime she buys

If she is really staying in she'll buy as much as she can in NC and Ind, but if she just buys a few ads here and there then I think that would confirm your theory about staying in to pay the bills. We should know very soon.

[JuniperLea]

9. On DU, only Skinner can make that call

How many threads does this make now? You've been trying to make this stick every other day or so for months.

[cali]

11. more dishonest blather. I never said or even thought

that Skinner should declare Obama the nominee. That's in your head dear. It's not reality. And no, I've said that she could pull it off but it's unlikely. Now it's beyond that. Get used to it. Or don't.

[JuniperLea]

42. Think again, dear, and read Skinner's own words posted and pinned

At the top of this section.

:eyes:

I never said you were suggesting anything, except that there is a clear and apparent nominee here, which is exactly what your OP is saying. I'm simply saying that in terms of DU, only Skinner can make that call, so your OP is yet another waste of everyone's time.

[cali]

13. more dishonest blather. I never said or even thought

that Skinner should declare Obama the nominee. That's in your head dear. It's not reality. And no, I've said that she could pull it off but it's unlikely. Now it's beyond that. Get used to it. Or don't.

[ColesCountyDem]

10. There's no burning need for Sen. Clinton to drop out.

This 'issue' (Sen. Clinton dropping out) is magnified 1000-fold here at DU, compared to how it's viewed in the non-DU world. Whether or not she drops out and WHEN she does so should be HER decision alone. There is no long-term, substantive harm being done to our party by her remaining in the race. The greatest harm being done is, in my opinion, the constant, back-and-forth bickering and antagonism by various Clinton and Obama supporters.

If everyone would just chill and let the process play out, I'd be willing to wager a $100 bill against a stale donut that we'll emerge from Denver as a united party with a HUGE, shared drive to retake the White House, and that we will do so in November.

Just my $.02...

:hi:

[cali]

12. I agree. no where in my OP do I call for her to drop out.

that's entirely up to her.

[ColesCountyDem]

73. And i was agreeing with you.

Just sorta fleshing out my agreement.

:hi:

[smiley_glad_hands]

14. Good post Cali. K&R. eom

[Two Americas]

15. no connection there

There is no connection between what Senator Clinton does or does not do, and what the presumed emotional state of presumed Clinton supporters here might be.

Since Senator Clinton and her staff are unlikely to be influenced by this post, what is the real purpose of it? We already have an overwhelming majority of people here who promote Obama. What does it hurt to have a few people still promoting Obama? what would you have them do? I haven't stopped supporting or promoting Kucinich and his program since he lost the nomination in 2004. Why should I have to "accept" anything or be told what is happening with me emotionally or analyzed and told what is wrong with me or have my nose rubbed in the fact that he lost? I have not stopped supporting Edwards and his message, either.

If Obama is a sure winner, and if most people here already promote Obama, and if there is nothing to fear from Clinton supporters, then what is the supposed problem that requires endless "she should drop out" threads? It is illogical and only seems to serve the purpose of inflaming passions and creating ill will.

[NJSecularist]

17. Who died and made you the ultimate authority on who the nominee is?

Obama will not reach the 2024 delegate threshold. Thus, he is not entitled to the nomination. Nothing is set in stone, as much as the netroots tells us otherwise. Hillary can and should take this to the convention.

[Avalux]

18. She's stating the facts. Why do you refuse to acknowledge them?

This will not go to the convention.

[NJSecularist]

19. Unless Obama reaches 2024 pledged delegates... nothing is "fact".

Contrary to what the netroots tells us.

[cali]

21. Aaargh. this isn't about the netroots. Most pundits and analysts

acknowledge that Obama is almost certain to be the nominee.

[NJSecularist]

23. The pundits also said that Guilani was almost certain to be the nominee.

Shows what they know. They blow with the wind.

There is nothing "fact" about Obama's nomination. It hasn't happened yet, and there is no guarentee of it ever happening. You trying to declare yourself as an authorative source in this matter is laughable.

[JuniperLea]

45. Very well said

I whole-heartedly concur!

[DemVet]

26. Yeah...

...even Dick Morris. That's the kiss of death for Barry.

[JuniperLea]

44. And we all know how reliable they are

:sarcasm:

[cali]

20. bwahahah. this is a political discussion board, geniu.

I posted my OPINION. And no, Hillary won't take it to the convention if he has that 2025. She's not insane. Reid, Pelosi, Dean and many others have made it utterly clear that this won't go to the convention. Don't think they can twist arms on this if they need to? Think again.

[H2O Man]

22. How can you be sure

it's your opinion? You died and appeared to you in a dream and told you it is your opinion? Any proof of that claim? And if Senator Clinton isn't reading this, why did you write it?

[NJSecularist]

24. Hillary can twist arms also.

And if she keeps winning important swing states by 10 points, the superdelegates will start to get the idea that Obama is not electable.

[wileedog]

27. HInt: She's out of important swing states to win by 10 points

That's the point. There are no large "difference maker" states left other than maybe NC, which is stacked against her.

None of the remaining states have the punch of PA, and she just didn't make enough of a dent there.

[NJSecularist]

28. She already won 3 important swing states by 10+ points.

Her point has been made.

When she beats Obama by 30 points in a Democratic state like West Virginia, then we'll start to see how unelectable Obama is.

[cali]

36. WV is solidly repuke when it comes to voting in Presidential

elections. It's not a swing state or even close. Same with KY. Sorry. She's done.

[wileedog]

39. Democratic state like WV?

Obama puts states like NC, CO and VA in play. Clinton does not put WV and KY or even IN in play.

PA has gone Democratic the last 20 years, just because she wins there in a primary doesn't mean he won't in November.

Ditto OH, who will be shooting themselves in the foot electing a President with no economic plans other than "Like Bush, but more"

This argument has no weight.

[NJSecularist]

40. West Virginia's electorate is 50% Democratic in the general.

Kerry and Gore didn't put it in play because they were bad candidates in WV and Bush was a great candidate. But Hillary will put West Virginia in play and might win it.

[cali]

47. bullshit. McCain has it in the bag.

[NJSecularist]

49. False. 50% of the electorate is Democrat. Hillary doesn't bleed Democrat support like Obama.

If McCain wins, it will be close. Hillary will put the state in play. It is a traditionally Democratic state. McCain isn't nearly as good a candidate in the state as Bush.

[cali]

50. show a poll with her in the lead over McCain

not that she'll be the candidate anyway.

[NJSecularist]

54. SurveyUSA had a poll in late February where Clinton lead McCain by 5 in West Virginia.

There has not been any recent polling, but it really tells you something that even when the MSM was annointing Obama in late February as the presumptive nominee, Hillary was still winning West Virginia by 5.

[cali]

what's the evidence of that?

How many SD endorsements has she received since Super Tuesday? How many has he received? And there are no more swing states left, unless you consider NC to be one. And how do you see her winning there? It's just not feasible to see her winning the nomination, barring him imploding.

[NJSecularist]

31. It doesn't matter. Superdelegates can change their votes.

An ad blitz by Hillary in the summer telling us how Obama is unelectable could change superdelegates minds.

[cali]

34. wow. you really are desperate.

just pathetic.

[NJSecularist]

35. We should all be desperate about winning the presidency in November.

Trying to make a statement about electing Obama is not nearly as important as winning the White House in November.

The netroots wants to make a statement that the Democrats are the open-minded party if they elect Obama. Winning the White House isn't important. Just making a statement.

[cali]

37. Agreed. It's about winning in November.

I think PObama is more electable than Clinton. And it's not the netroots. It's the SDs at this point. It has nothing to do with proving that dems are openminded, though that certainly offers a clue about YOU

[JuniperLea]

48. How is arm twisting in this regard a good thing?

Why is that better than letting things take their natural course?

[cali]

53. it's a good thing to get a nominee as soon as the primaries

end so we can start fighting McCain.

[JuniperLea]

55. Bullshit

There is nothing stopping anyone from turning the attack toward McCain now, or six weeks ago for that matter. If Hillary is so insignificant to this primary, what's stopping Obama from ignoring her and getting down to the real business?

Personally, I think people would love to see BOTH candidates go after McCain. There is NO reason to wait for that. None whatsoever.

[cali]

60. dogshit. your post, I mean. just to make that crystal clear.

Of course there's something stopping a full fledged focused campaign against McCain. It's called the primary, genius. No one said Hillary was insignificant, just that she's very, very unlikely to be the nominee. two rather different things. duh. Obama can't ignore attacks on him. And that's what hilly's been doing.

There really is NO fucking way to focus on McCain while the primary is ongoing. And yes, Obama has consistently been going after McCain, just not to the extent that he could if he wasn't still campaigning.

[JuniperLea]

65. Where is it written he can't ignore the attacks

He is making the attacks an issue by virtue of responding to them. Where is it written that he must respond?

Where is it written that you can't focus on the opposing party's candidate in the primary?

Your name calling is really getting out of hand.

[DemVet]

25. Oh....Obama has 2025 delegates now does he?

No...he doesn't.

You know how the system works.

Quit spamming the board with this crap.

[NJSecularist]

30. This thread is the height of arrogance.

This nomination is over because the OP said so!!

[cali]

33. wah. you need

to put on your big boy or girl panties.

[JuniperLea]

51. Typical

You have no argument so you attack the poster. You're a klass act, cali.

[cali]

32. really got under your skin, that's obvious.

don't like it, don't read it.

[mudesi]

38. Time for DU to call it. Who's with me?

Let's join Michael Moore and Kos and all the others.

Barack Obama is the nominee.

[City Lights]

41. Me!

:hi:

[Jersey Devil]

46. At this point we ought to start calling her "Huckabillery"

It's been over for weeks.

[JuniperLea]

52. Talk to Skinner

He's the only one who has the right to "call it" where DU is concerned.

[nxylas]

57. Hasn't Skinner said that it's only over when one of the two candidates drops out?

At least that's the impression I got from the sticky on this board.

[JuniperLea]

58. On edit...

We should all read this again. I will as well. I believe you are correct, but there are other factors to consider. I think it would behoove us all to read it again.

[nxylas]

59. Here's the relevant paragraph

"At some point between now and the Democratic convention in August, one of the two remaining Democratic front-runners will drop out of the race, and the remaining candidate will become the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. When we have a presumptive nominee, the time for fighting on DU will come to an end. The squabbling will not drag on until the "official" nomination at the convention in August. The transition to general election mode begins when we have a presumptive nominee. And we have no doubt that the vast majority of our members -- regardless of which candidate you support in the primaries -- will be glad to move forward and support the nominee."

[Maddy McCall]

61. Hmmm...then, according to Skinner, we don't have a presumptive nominee.

Which makes the OP a moot point.

[cali]

62. The OP is simply an opinion

It doesn't ask Skinner to do anything. The thought never even occurred to me. It will be interesting however, if the SDs put Obama over the top and the party bigwigs say he's the nominee, and Hilly still stays in.

[JuniperLea]

64. Again, you miss the point

Just because you say it's over, time and time again, ad nauseum, doesn't make it so. That tactic no longer works for Republicans either. You should take a clue card on this one, dear.

[Scurrilous]

56. K & R

:thumbsup:

[ORDem]

63. Big states are behind us now, so Hillary's argument is deflated each day that passes.

So few contests left and she can only match Obama's lead in pledged delegates if she wins about 70% in each and every remaining contest. Ain't gonna happen. Period. End of story.

:dem:

[Austinitis]

66. This story's dying out. Pundits are turning on you.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/04/how_clinton_can_do_it.html#more

[Occam Bandage]

67. Sorry, Austin. The media would love to have this race forever, but it's over.

[bigpenguin]

71. Yeah

Austin, did you actually read that article - he says "Sure, she can win if she does all this" - and that list of things is HUGE, and difficult. He didn't exactly paint a rosy picture of her winning - I wouldn't say that's a pundit who is "turning".

[cali]

72. lol. from the article you linked to:

"To be clear: The most likely scenario is that Obama's lead in pledged delegates and the popular vote continues as the two Democrats split up the remaining nine contests."

Yes, of course journos are going to post alternate scenarios as long as they're remotely possible. The key word being remotely, and one article does not a trend make, bot.

[Mags]

69. Cali, you are sooooooooo funny. I know you think I'm a racist.

[Alexander]

70. Obama only needs 300 delegates to win now.

He'll be about 70-80 delegates shy of the nomination from the remaining primaries, assuming no further superdelegates endorse him.

Which is highly unlikely.

Clinton's campaign seems to be dying a slow death.