Obama Beating McSame in EVs, Could Bring TX Back to Dems

[Khaotic]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Apr24.html

Obama is beating McSame in the electoral vote, and the big stunner ... states that were GOP strongholds are now barely holding them.

TX, CO, NE could go Dem if Obama get the nomination and gets in the ring for the GE against McSame.

Under Obama, there are just over 50 EVs that are barely Dem; but under Hillary there are well over 100 EVs that are tetering and could spill over to McSame.

It's plain to see ... under Obama the EVs stand a much better chance of holding Dem while he battles to tip the barley GOP EVs back to blue. Under Hillary, she'll be battling just to keep the EVs that should be automatic blue.

Take a look for yourself.

Obama map: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Apr24.html

Hillary map: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Apr24.html

I'd rather go into the GE battle with Obama.

The primary race has unearthed what kind of politican she is. She'll lose the GE and the GOP knows it.

[democrattotheend]

1. WHAT??? Where are you getting Texas polling from?

I'm an Obama supporter but that sounds really far fetched.

[crispini]

5. It's one poll from February

State Democrat Republican End Len Dem GOP I Pollster
Texas Barack Obama John McCain Feb 28 3 46% 47% SurveyUSA

Stretching it a bit, but OH SO TANTALIZING. That's a lotta electoral candy.

Our primary hadn't occurred back then, so Obama would have MUCH better name recognition now, also. :D

[PVnRT]

9. I wonder that myself...

Texas is not going blue any time soon.

[NJSecularist]

2. Obama winning Texas?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Get me a more recent poll, instead of one in Late February, when both candidates were stumping heavily in the state.

McCain wins Texas by 15.

[Khaotic]

8. Laugh and laugh and laugh

But Jim Hightower will tell you that it can happen.

Do you forget that the state used to be blue?

Before Bush, the state had a Democratic gov.

The Texas Democrats have been fighting really fucking hard.

They're sick of their shitty fucking environment, the fact that they're the most obese state, and that the Christian Right dictates their every move.

There are a lot of people in Texas that are fucking fed up w/ the NeoCons.

If you think the hispanic and black vote won't go heavily for Obama you're wrong.

Obama has a bigger chance in TX than you think.

So laugh it up fuzzball.

[NJSecularist]

11. The last time the Democrats won Texas was in 1976. Before then, 1964.

It's not as blue as you say it is.

Do you think either Democratic candidate will lose NY as a recent poll showed? It's as absurd as saying that a Republican will lose Texas.

[Asgaya Dihi]

33. It's not as red as you think either

I live in Texas though I'm not from here, lived all over the place but the last 15 years or so have been here. Bush was only the second repub to be elected Governor since the civil war and the first to be reelected, for ages there was hardly a repub in Statewide office.

They did go more for the conservative southern dem style so weren't much for voting for the more liberal candidates on a national level but it was more blue than red overall. Just conservative blue.

Personally I think Anne Richards had a bit to do with the loss of the State, though certainly not all of it. Bush was the first repub Governor to ever win a few heavily Hispanic districts including the one with El Paso, the largest. I took it as at least in part due to Anne telling everyone that if we run out of room we'll build more prisons... we were on a big tough on crime spree at the time and I'd guess we didn't put too much thought into who was largely filling those prisons in the State. It didn't make the difference in itself but I really don't think it helped us any either.

It could go blue again though, they seem to like Obama better than most dems and they seem to be finally figuring out that they didn't do as well as they thought they would under the repubs.

[jconner27]

14. Asking an Obama supporter to be honest

Is like asking Godzilla not to stomp in Tokyo.

[cosmik debris]

18. If McCain runs against Clinton

He will win by 20 points.

The Hillary Hatred in Texas is palpable.

[NJSecularist]

20. And Obama will likely lose to McSame by 20 points also. n/t

[cosmik debris]

21. Perhaps

But the most potent unifying factor to Republicans is the defeat of HRC.

[redqueen]

23. Doubt it.

[NJSecularist]

24. My bad, he'll probably lose by 18. n/t

[redqueen]

26. We'll see...

TX is weird... don't see ANY McCain stickers down here. Haven't talked to ANY GOPers who actually like McCain. See *lots* of Ron Paul stickers, though. And I've talked to more than a few Republicans who've said they would vote for Obama rather than McCain, if Obama's on the ticket. Could be interesting.

[jconner27]

25. False hope

McCain will beat Obama by that much as well.. Obama don't have that much appeal.. Unless you pump the kool aid in the water supply.

[redqueen]

27. You from TX?

Cause uh... yeah.

[Coexist]

3. if the Democratic party took back Texas

what a big ole slap in the face that would be to the Bush family!

[tritsofme]

4. Obama will be lucky to break 45% in Texas.

There are always stupid polls that show Texas as competitive for Dems or NY competitive for Republicans.

But they don't mean anything, and don't even really make for good spin.

[DJ13]

7. Well those good ole boys sure wont vote for a woman over McCain

Anything else?

[terrell9584]

13. because Texas doesn't have a female U.S. Senator who has beaten

male opponents.......this as she is firmly pro-choice.

[lapfog_1]

6. Florida isn't going Dem no matter who we run

not against McCain/Lieberman.

[Khaotic]

10. Texas Democrat Jim Hightower ...

... says different!

[lapfog_1]

12. Show me the polling data that supports Florida going for Hillary

against McCain / Lieberman.

I don't think you can.

[NJSecularist]

16. The latest Rasmussen Florida poll shows Clinton winning by 1 against McSame.

And Obama losing by 12 against McSame.

[rusty_parts2001]

22. He is a nice guy and a good fit for the Austin liberals, but....

He is unrepresentative of the state as a whole and even Texas Democrats generally.

[redqueen]

29. Soooo... you're from TX?

[PBS Poll-435]

15. I love your links....

They actually show Clinton ahead of the 270 needed to elect and Obama falling short of it.

[Texas Hill Country]

17. anyone that thinks texas is going blue needs rehab... seriously.

[redqueen]

28. What... you haven't met any Republicans who like Obama more than McCain?

Really?

[Benhurst]

19. I'll bet we'll win Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, too.

And Utah. And ... .

There are going to be a lot of hangovers around here on November 6th.

We'll be lucky with such a divided party to win at all.

[Thepricebreaker]

30. He has as much chance as taking Texas and McCain has taking NJ...

[redqueen]

35. Are you from TX?

[Khaotic]

31. The point

The breakdown ...

Solid EVs for Obama = 211
Barely GOP or tied = 91

Solid EVs for Hillary = 172
Barely GOP or tied = 23

Don't you fucking see?

Under Obama he cements 211 BLUE EVs, Hillary only 172!!!!

As far as possible GOP or tied EVs ... If Obama there's 91, but under Hillary there's only 23.

This is why the GOP is fighting hard to get Hillary as the Dem nominee.

Don't you get it?????

[Gore1FL]

32. What is promising is what is in play

TX, SC, VA, NV, may stay bright red, but the fact that McCain will more likely have to play defense rather than offense is an awesome sign--especially at this stage.

[cosmik debris]

34. That's what is important to us Texans

The idea that McCain will have to defend Texas from Obama is thrilling!

He won't have that problem if HRC is the candidate.

In fact he will probably use Texas as his "Fort Knox" with all the gold he needs.

[Khaotic]

36. That's the point

And that's why the GOP wants Hillary like nothing else.

They're fucking drooling over getting her.

They had the table set, the silverware out, and the chainsaws oiled up.

With Obama they have to deal w/ the unfamilar territory of the 50 state strategy.

They're saying ... WHAT THE FUCK?!

They don't want to deal with having so many EVs in sketchy territory.

You can bet they want Hillary served up w/ an apple in her mouth.

[AlinPA]

37. Texas? Going Democrat? Funny.

[redqueen]

39. Are YOU from TX?

How are all these non-Texans such experts on what could happen in TX?

:wtf:

[AlinPA]

42. Nope, PA. I'm no expert. I watch a lot of politics and that's what I believe.

[blogslut]

38. Texan here

Let me give you an illustration of what this report is talking about.

My hometown is within one of the reddest counties in the nation. Here's a comparison of EARLY VOTING totals for the years 2004 vs 2008:

2004

Republican - 2136
Democrats - 333

2008

Republicans - 2479
Democrats - 1858

Texas could turn blue if we can keep this momentum going till November. Mark my words.

[redqueen]

40. Thank you!

Need lots more Texans on this thread...

[blogslut]

41. There's also this

http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5219