Does anyone believe the polls?

[ringmastery]

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

CNN/Gallup has Dean within 5 points of Bush.

Washington Post/ABC News had Dean losing to Bush by 18 points just a week earlier.

That just doesn't make sense.

[BOSSHOG]

1. Polls had the repuke winning handily against the Democrat

in Novembers Louisiana Governor's Race. The democrat will be inaugurated on 12 January.

[Freddie Stubbs]

4. Actually the polls showed a tightening race

that was in the margin of error.

[madfloridian]

2. There are other polls showing Bush in low numbers.

There was one poll in which Dean against Bush had Bush at 49%. I can't find it though.

There was the Saddam jump for Bush, but I doubt that will last.

[Dems Will Win]

3. Just before Saddam, Newsweek had Bush 49, Dean 42

It's real. Believe it now, or you'll be inaugurating a Doctor and 4-star General later!

NEED A BUSHECTOMY? CALL DR. DEAN!

[OhioStateProgressive]

5. well...

i think after the results are in in the first few primaries we all may see that the polls aren't accurate

[The Zanti Regent]

6. I ignore these "sleeping polls"

Another form of media manipulation.

The only poll that will count is one where PAPER BALLOTS ARE COUNTED!

[tedoll78]

7. It depends.

I used to work for the Gallup Poll. You wouldn't believe the number of hangups, call answering services, cell phones, busy lines, etc we'd get. It's getting tougher and tougher to get a good random sample.

That having been said, polls conducted with similar methodologies can still be useful in spotting trends. If all of the polls show a dip in approval rating, then it's probably moved down. If the polls begin to show a race tightening, it probably is. The poll's magnitude of the tightening may be a bit distorted from reality, but the trend may be apparent.

Based on what I've seen, any one of the top tier candidates can give Bush a run for his money. Each has their own advantages that they'd bring to the table. What might really decide the election in the end is party unity. Independents, as I recall, are distinctly leaning against a Bush victory this year. But if 20% of our party mopes about over the nomination battle, we are doomed.

It's nice to know that we largely control our own collective destiny.

[IndianaGreen]

8. Lucky for all of us, the voters will soon start casting their votes

which will bring to an end all of the speculation about candidates that we have seen in DU.

[Moderator]

9. dupe

Please continue the discussion here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=53912


DU Moderator