Just theoretically: What happens if Obama wins NC by 20 and IN by 5?

[cali]

I don't think Clinton will drop out, but that will put Obama at approximately 1825 total delgates and close to the "Pelosi number". If this happens and he wins big in NC and simply wins in IN, will we see a flood of SDs? It would no longer be possible for Clinton to win the popular vote and she'd be significantly behind still in PDs. Would this hasten the end?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. Michigan and Florida would be every other word out of the campaign's mouth.

Instead of the current every third word.

[democrattotheend]

15. Go ahead and seat them

I did some calculations yesterday and determined that if Obama loses Indiana by 12, barely wins North Carolina and Oregon, gets trounced in Kentucky and West Virginia 2-1, loses Puerto Rico 3-1, loses Montana by double digits, and Michigan is seated 70%-30% for Clinton and Florida as is, Obama would STILL have the lead in delegates. Barring some campaign-ending scandal that causes his support to completely collapse, Obama's delegate lead is completely Michigan-and-Florida-proof insurmountable. The popular vote is a different story, and there's no way to know that until we know how many people vote in each upcoming primary, but in terms of delegates, even seating Michigan and Florida would not give Clinton much of a chance to take the lead.

[Galway girl]

29. Very right

Once she loses the SD's it will become about FL and MI

[The_Counsel]

37. I Especially Find This Part Interesting...

"Barring some campaign-ending scandal that causes his support to completely collapse, Obama's delegate lead is completely Michigan-and-Florida-proof insurmountable. The popular vote is a different story..."

There it is.

The Clinton campaign knows this too. That's why they're talking less about seating the MI and FL delegates and more about the popular vote.

The problem is this thing is all about the delegates and not the popular vote. Not to mention Hillary still trails in the popular vote anyway. That is in any scenario that makes sense anyway...

[democrattotheend]

45. That's why I think Obama should say let's go ahead and seat them

It would take the talking point away from her.

[thoughtcrime1984]

46. Forget the popular vote. With caucus states those numbers are much smaller

anyway. The Primary is and always has been about DELEGATES. The popular vote means nothing. If it did, the campaigning would be much different than what we have been seeing. The candidates would camp out in the 20 largest cities and would ignore about 30 states. It is rightfully about a 50 state strategy, and wooing voters in every district in the US. And whenever I hear Hillary say "If we used the Republican system in the Primaries, I'd already be the nominee", I want to puke. You play by the rules you have, with the system you've got. She should have ran as a Republican, then she could win her electoral style nomination, by winning the 12 biggest states, and f the other 38.

[The_Counsel]

38. * SELF-DELETE *

Not sure why that posted twice. Muh-bad... ;)

[chimpymustgo]

2. LOL. What if Hillary wins? Will BHO drop out?

[cali]

9. lol. I'm not suggesting she drop out,

duh. reading is fundamental. I believe hill has every right to stay in- up until the time that Obama gets 2024 delegates. Try not being so paranoid and reading stuff that isn't there.

[book_worm]

3. the super delegates would begin putting heavy pressure on Hillary to gracefully get out

of the race and if she doesn't then they will begin endorsing Obama by large numbers.

[olkaz]

4. Newsflash from the future! Clinton Stays In

No matter what.

They're **this** close. They'll do absolutely anything to get there. They're willing to destroy Obama, Bill's legacy, and anything else to lock this thing up.

Hell, Obama could win BOTH by 20, and she'd still stick around.

[IsItJustMe]

11. I think she will still be campaigning after (if and when) Obama takes the oath of office.

[olkaz]

19. I would not be surprised at all.

In fact, I am fully expecting conspiracy videos and books from the Hillary camp about how Obama stole the nomination from her.

That's the one strain I find in common with every Clinton supporter. She "deserves" it. She's "paid her dues". She's "destined". This sense of entitlement is ubiquitous throughout the Hilarati blogosphere. The cognitive dissonance is forcing them to take more and more drastic positions and opinions.

So I imagine we'll see those conspiracy materials in early 2009.

[IsItJustMe]

34. You are much nicer than I am. You say 'cognitive dissonance', I say straight up insanity.

[The_Counsel]

44. Here's The Funny Thing...

...the Clinton campaign would like us to believe it's thisclose. The media seems bent on helping them promote that theory also, 'cuz ... you know ... it's all about the ratings for them.

But in reality, it's more like this close. Obama's only problem is that he needs a hard majority, which at this point can only happen when enough superdelegates make up their damn minds already.

[NeedleCast]

5. Nothing

It'll still be over, like it's been over for about two months now. Hillary is going to take this to the converntion though, even if Obama sweeps the remaining states.

[invictus]

6. Hillary will claim that NC and IN don't really count. Typically the Clintons resort to lying. n/t

[InfiniteNether]

22. Yup. They are small states that didn't vote for her, so they don't matter.

[powergirl]

7. My prediction - the super delegates come out en masse and endorse Obama

so that it's all over. :kick:

[Pirate Smile]

8. The Supers come out for Obama and it is over.

[dysfunctional press]

43. yep. and they'll even be able to seat florida and michigan, because it won't matter.

i cannot WAIT for this thing to be officially OVER.

[RichardRay]

10. Senator Clinton will trudge along...

unless the super delegates finally grow backbones and end this thing. I don't think Senator Clinton's campaign will stop short of Denver unless the party does something, harshly and publically, to stop it. I'd bet that substantial jawboning has already been applied, but to no avail, so it's time for the party leaders to make the call.

Unless they don't, then we'll just wander on towards Denver, expending money, time and energy that should be used to beat the R's...

[truebrit71]

52. She won't have the $$$ to carry-on...

...the money will take her out of the race before the SD's do...

[HereSince1628]

12. Clinton is in until be she runs deep deep into debt.

There are fewer and fewer opportunities for her to go into such a debt.

What we've seen in debt so far isn't the sort of deep deep debt that would take years to pay-off and interfere with a run in 2012.

[olkaz]

20. Here's a question: Who pays for that extreme debt?

The party doesn't have to pony up for this farce, does it?

[HereSince1628]

35. It's her campaign's debt. n/t

[madwivoter]

13. Unfortunately, I don't think anything will happen

Hillary will not drop out of the race unless the SDs start to trickle in for Obama in large numbers. She's going to stay in it until the (wait for it...) bitter end. Whenever that is.

Pelosi, Reid and Dean really need to get their shit together soon.

[TheDoorbellRang]

14. I do believe she's counting on Puerto Rico

to put her over the top in the popular vote. I've seen estimates that 4M will vote there and they're favoring her.

I hope he wins both states on May 6. It will give her an excuse to drop out if she feels she needs one. Unfortunately, I don't think she'll do a graceful exit until Obama hits 2025, probably around the end of May. More and more she reminds me of Glen Close in "Fatal Attraction" -- I won't be ignored, America."

[Benhurst]

16. She'll play a Ted Kennedy and take it to the floor of the Convention.

To be fair, she has a stronger case than Kennedy did. Clinton and Obama's delegate counts are close and Obama is not a sitting president, as was Jimmy Carter.

As for the "Pelosi number," it's hard to take her seriously after the past two years. She has turned enabling Bush into an art form.

Obama will probably prevail. If he were to stumble before the convention, my guess is the party would turn to a third choice. Talk about unintended consequences for the Clinton camp!

[Coexist]

17. how many lines do you require per response?

just to be clear? Is there a two-line minimum?

[cali]

27. how ever many you need to answer the question

:hi:

[Tesha]

18. Nothing. The Hillary people will still believe in fairies, celestial choirs, etc.

And the inevitability of their candidate.

Tesha

[cjsmom44]

23. RE: SO TRUE

HILLARY WILL NEED SOME SERIOUS THERAPY AFTER THIS IS OVER

SHE IS IN TOTAL DENIAL....

SHE IS UNBELIEVABLE

ALL THAT I HAVE HEARD FROM THE BEGINNING

IS A SORT OF DISBELIEF THAT OBAMA MIGHT

JUST PUT AN END TO HER CORONATION

PLEASE .... IT MAKES ME SICK... :puke:

[InfiniteNether]

25. She will not drop out.The goal is to destroy Obama and, by extension,

the Progressive Movement. I wish the rest of my fellow Obamaheads would realize this. This primary contest does not end until Jan. 20, 2009.

[InfiniteNether]

21. "MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA! CHARGE, MY MINIONS!!"

That's what will happen. Not that it wasn't going to happen anyway. Since the goal is simply to torpedo Obama, it doesn't matter if he wins even 100% of the remaining votes.

[Edgewater_Joe]

24. The Media Will Trumpet a HUGE OBAMA COMEBACK! It's Their Only Storyline!

Which is exactly what the media does: they build up a candidate, tear them down, then "rebuild" them so they can claim a "comeback."

It happened with Matlock, it happened with Hillary, and in a week and a half it will happen with Obama.

The media really is nothing if not totally predictable.

[AlinPA]

26. Clinton will go more negative. But if he wins NC after the ad that the R's

are running (the one that McCain claims he wants stopped) and wins IN after the trash she is certainly going to throw, she will look more desperate than she does now. She will continue nevertheless.

[RBInMaine]

28. Pressure will mount for her to get out, but she won't.

[davidpdx]

30. Puerto Rico will be come her firewall state

and then France and Germany, even though they don't vote. She can complain that they were disenfranchised anyway.

[grytpype]

31. This is what would happen

[Voltaire]

32. Being from Indiana I need to jump in here

I am perplexed at the optimism of a lot of folks that Obama can win the primary here. Now, I am an Obama supporter, but there are a great many of the *ahem* undereducated Democrats and blue collar Democrats in this state. As I write, the poll numbers are 41 Obama 38 Clinton with 21 percent undecided. And we know how the undecideds have been breaking in states with a lot of...*ahem* undereducated Democrats.

All I'm saying is there is still a lot of work to do here in Indiana before we stick this one in our pockets. Obama has a lot of strength in our few urban centers and in the college areas, but there is a lot of uneducated space in between all of that. And folks LOVE Evan Bayh here, its sort of like the Ed Rendell dynamic without the bombast. We don't do bombast in Indiana.

Gotta stay fired up and ready to go.

Voltaire

[cali]

36. I suppose it's the polls that show it being quite competitve

that it's a neighboring state to Illinois as well as to states he's done well in. Good to have a sobering from the ground report. thanks.

[Bensthename]

33. It wont stop Hillary from campaigning for McCain.

She is doing her best to get McCain elected. That wont change.

[kenny blankenship]

39. Maybe she'll be the keynote speaker at the convention

The Republican convention.

[MadBadger]

40. If 1.5 Million People show up to vote and Obama wins by 20, he gains 300,000 votes.

She would be finished.

[rucky]

41. The SD's will fall in-line.

They won't do it off a Clinton win, but they will off an Obama win.

[IDemo]

42. She will fly the Florida State marching band to Denver

Where they will play "Seminole Wind" nonstop outside the convention hall until the delegates are seated.

[SeaLyons]

47. Hillary will win IN

and she may take NC. I think the rest of the primaries belong to HRC.

[cali]

49. that's del;usional. it's actually sad how delusional you are

you don't know that she'll win Indiana and it's very unlikely that she'll win NC. Just as PA favored hilly demographically, so too does NC favor Obama demographically. She'll no more win in NC than he did in PA. Thank the goddess that I'm not a delusional bot. I forecast Obama would lose by 12. I was wrong by three points. Well now I'm forecasting that Obama will win NC by 16 and lose IN by 3. He'll win OR and SD and MT. Comfort yourself with her blowouts in KY and WV. But don't keep deluding yourself that she's got more than an outside chance. It's just pathetic.

[SeaLyons]

50. ....

Sorry, Cali, but HRC is in it to win it. She will do just that. You can call it pathetic, delusional, whatever.

[cali]

54. it's your ridiculous spin that's sad

and not being able to admit that hillary is very unlikely to win the nomination. it's too late for her to get the pledged delegates or the popular vote.

[thoughtcrime1984]

48. It's going to June 3rd.

Everyone is too scared to ruffle the Clintons' feathers, because if they win somehow, they'd be very vindictive towards those that dared go against her. But it must end right then and there, as it would be foolish to still have two candidates fighting for the nom in late August. The Democrats have never won the WH when that scenario happens. And the goal is winning the WH, right? JUNE 3= D-day.

[truebrit71]

51. She will drop out. Either that night or the day after...

..if Obama wins both her fundraising will completely dry up...That's where the lion's share of this new money will be going towards I'll bet...to pay down that debt...

[RiverStone]

53. She will move the goalposts again

And say this time she will not exit until FLA/MI count their "votes".

The SuperD's will have to pull the plug.

[Robbins]

55. Primaries

To my fellow Obama Supporters don't let the Hillary Supporters get you down.They can be delusional all they want.Here are the facts.

With the exception of Texas She has never come back once he Is In the lead In a state(and let's remember he won the caucus and the delegate fight and the Primary was not a landslide)

North Carolina-Obama Is In double digits here.Thinking he will lose It a delusional fantasy and
I always maintained he would lose PA.

Indiana-This Is a battle.I won't predict who will win because It can go either way.Polls suggest
Obama has a better shot than In PA however It should be noted the undecideds could throw It to her.

Guam-Unsure.This could be another battle

Kentucky and West Virginia-Hillary will win both by double digits

Oregon-Obama win win.There Is a large antiwar Progressive Democratic base here.

Puerto rico-Hillary wins.Hispanics will enable them.

North Dakota and Montana-Obama will win.Western Democrats don't be falling for her.