Indiana is the key. Obama can seal the deal if he wins this state

[NJmaverick]

Hillary doesn't have the luxury of a 20 point lead in this state. It's pretty much tied up with a good split in the demographics and support of the local politicians. NC is going to go for Obama big, that's a given. So if Obama wins Indiana, it will be a two state sweep. It will be the opening the SDs want, so that they can step in and end the blood bath. It will show that Obama can win competitive states (taking away the last Clinton talking point) and will eliminate her mathematically. So it will be a great time to for the SDs to announce Obama is the nominee.

[LakeSamish706]

1. How many times have we been saying this though? The only time I will feel...

comfortable that he has finally sealed the deal is when the SD's come out for him.

[0007]

2. I predict he'll take Indiana and NC.

Also the old gal will have another human moment.

[anonymous171]

3. The corporate media is trying really hard to get a Clinton win there.

Hopefully Obama will defeat them.

[tridim]

4. Technically true, but he has already sealed the deal.

He is our nominee.

[Barack_America]

9. Second. n/t

[PVnRT]

5. Eh...

Only if he wins by a large margin do I think that it will be a deathblow. Otherwise, this will go to the convention or to whenever enough SDs endorse one candidate or the other to make it end.

[NJmaverick]

7. I big win in NC and a win in IN will erase the PA win

In both pledged delegates and popular vote. With nothing but some smaller states (which split roughly 50/50) there will be nothing left for Hillary to fight for. I guess she could argue for them to give it to her, because she wants it, but I don't see the SDs going for that.

[PVnRT]

21. Exactly - BIG wins

Otherwise, it goes on. I just don't have the feeling Indiana will be a big win.

[NJmaverick]

24. I don't think they both need to be big wins

A big win in NC will make up most of the damage from PA. A victory in Indiana is more symbolic. It will allow Obama to claim a sweep and show that he can win the competative states.

[BlooInBloo]

6. Heh. It's Indiana - that evens all bets. But it would be the biggest win for him...

... out of the remaining states. Kentucky obviously is even less of an option for him than PA was.

[XemaSab]

17. O RLY?

I think she's going to get slaughtered in South Dakota and Montana, and Oregon is just going to be ugly. North Carolina too.

It's going to be 60-40 or worse in all those states.

[BlooInBloo]

19. Oops - sorry - by "biggest" I meant "most awesomest evah!", not biggest numerically. My bad.

[NJmaverick]

22. I am sure the SDs sare aware of this

Indiana is going to be her last stand. Lose that state and she is finished.

[XemaSab]

32. But even if it's 51-49 Clinton

(which she will spin as a HUGH win), and North Carolina is a relatively kind 55-45 Obama, that leaves 221 elected delegates left, with Hillary 140 delegates down.

She would literally have to get 82% in every remaining election just to catch up, plus over half of the superdelegates to put her over the top.

You're an Obama supporter and you know the math is just not there for her.

But if she "wins" Indiana, West Virginia is a week later and she's highly favored there. A week after that is Oregon and Kentucky, and she's also highly favored to win Kentucky.

She's not concerned at all with the math at this point, but media spin, and if she's percieved as winning states, that's all it will take to keep her going.

I fear it's going to go until May 20, if not later, if Obama doesn't beat her in Indiana.

[NJmaverick]

34. My sense is that Camp Clinton is playing for time

That as long as she is not mathematically out of it, and the SDs don't boot her, they want to stick around. They are going to continue to use their kitchen sink attack tactics and hope something fatally wounds Obama. I think if Obama can sweep NC and IN, Hillary will still not be ready to quit, but she will not have a choice.

[XemaSab]

35. What a nightmare

I can't believe we had the election all sewn up and it was torpedoed by the Clintons. :cry:

[Lord Helmet]

8. how come the media doesn't report the North Carolina numbers?

[NJmaverick]

10. It appears that they buy into the Clinton argument that black folks don't count

[Lord Helmet]

15. it's like states she loses don't count

[NJmaverick]

18. That to, but they usually have a different excuse for every state

[SunsetDreams]

11. Obama has already sealed the deal

[NJmaverick]

13. Well then let us just say it would make it official

[IsItJustMe]

27. Yes he has. But don't tell the people who have bought into all of the media hype. You don't want

to destoy their illusion, do you?

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

12. there's been a big voter purge since last year

this is a state hostile to voters.

Many people will show up to vote and not be on the rolls.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

14. its not whether Obama can win, its the fact that Hillary can NOT win

the math is against her.

With PA, she has already lost.

She needed 20 point lead there to justify going on.

See http://www.obamaiswinning.com/ for a lesson on the math.

[NJmaverick]

20. I agree, but two straight losses will be the perfect time for the SDs

to step up and say that. Think about it. How would it look of the SDs had ended things after a Hillary victory? It would have given her and her supporters all sorts of ammo. On the other hand, lose two more and with no way to win it, there is little they can legitimately say.

[cliffordu]

16. Guam. Guam's the last firewall.

I heard it from the mouths of Mark Penn.

[RBInMaine]

30. Obama is organizing there now for this CAUCUS. They are good at CAUCUSES !!

[RBInMaine]

23. Gonna be a close one. She has Bayh and older and working class. Obama needs to get more of them.

[BigDDem]

25. What difference does it make whether he really wins?

The flock will proclaim it a victory anyway.
(See PA)

[NJmaverick]

26. I am sure camp Clinton will have plenty of excuses

However I doubt they will get many buyers for what they will be selling.

[BigDDem]

31. Seemed to be plenty of buyers in PA

:rofl:

[NJmaverick]

33. The media and the general public, but from what I hear not the SDs

[BigDDem]

37. More interested in the voters than the media

but hey, that's just me.

[NJmaverick]

38. Many of the voters end up misinformed by the media

You know there are still 15% of America that believe Obama is Muslim?

[BigDDem]

39. Do you have a link to that stat?

I'm not denying it, just curious, seems a bit high.

[NJmaverick]

41. here

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9761.html

[NeedleCast]

28. The Deal Has Already Been Sealed

[Rob Gregory Browne]

29. He has already sealed the deal. NT

[Redbear]

36. I believe you are correct.

I remember reading that there are leaders in the Clinton camp who say that if she doesnt win in Indiana they will tell her its over.

[zam]

40. Clinton has never closed a gap in the polls to my knowledge.

And Obama has always gained at least a few points in polling.

It is therefore very probable that he will win both Indiana and North Carolina.

After that mrs. Clinton will give a concession speech, because she doesn't want the super delegates to push her out.

[Political Heretic]

42. I'm sick of hearing about all the "keys" for both sides.

At one point in this race, Iowa was "key" :P