Obama's absymal performance among White Democrats.

[NJSecularist]

White Democrats are a key coalition for the Democrats. We need to keep their votes in the general election. Obama's performance among them has been nothing short of abysmal. His performance among the white vote has been articially inflated by the independent and rethug vote, a majority of which will vote for McCain in the general.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660890/

Arizona 52% of electorate- Clinton 57, Obama 37
California: 66% of the electorate - Clinton 49, Obama 42
Connecticut: 66% of the electorate - Clinton 53, Obama 45
Delaware: 52% of the electorate - Clinton 56, Obama 40
Florida: 62% of the electorate - Clinton 60, Obama 24
Illinois: 41% of the electorate - Obama 53, Clinton 46
Maryland: 43% of the electorate - Clinton 55, Obama 42
Massachusetts: 56% of the electore - Clinton 60, Obama 39
Missouri: 52% of the electorate - Clinton 62, Obama 35
New Jersey: 45% of the electorate - Clinton 70, Obama 28
New York: 61% of the electorate - Clinton 63, Obama 34
Ohio: 69% of the electorate - Clinton 70, Obama 28
Pennsylvania: 67% of the electorate- Clinton 65, Obama 35
Rhode Island: 52% of the electorate - Clinton 67, Obama 32
Texas: 25% of the electorate - Clinton 62, Obama 37
Utah: 54% of the electorate - Clinton 48, Obama 48
Vermont: 52% of the electorate - Clinton 40, Obama 57
Virginia: 39% of the electorate - Clinton 56, Obama 44
Wisconsin: 53% of the electorate - Clinton 51, Obama 48

First, I only chose data from swing states and reliably Democratic states. I didn't include most reliably Republican states, including states like Alabama, Georgia and most states in the South because we have very little chance of winning those states in the general election regardless of the nominee. Suffice to say, Obama does terribly among the white Democratic vote in those states.

Now, let's analyze the data.

Illinois: Obama 53, Clinton 46

In his home state, he only won the White Democratic vote by 7 points. He won the white vote by 16 points, but that was propped up by Indie and Rethug voters, many of whom will vote for McCain in the general. Obama is in no danger of losing Illinois in the general, but this just illustrates his problem with White Democrats.

Maryland: Clinton 55, Obama 42

Obama won Maryland by 25 points yet he lost the White Democratic vote by 13. Once again, he was propped up by white indie and Rethug support, the majority of which he won't get in the general.

Missouri: Clinton 62, Obama 35

The Democrats are almost guarenteed to win the St. Louis area in the general election, which is a large and important part of Missouri. However, to win the suburbs, which is the key to winning the state, you need to tap into working class whites in the suburbs. Obama won Missouri on the back of larger than expected St. Louis turnout, but he certainly won't win Missouri as a whole with these absymal numbers among white Democrats, who may vote for McCain in the general. Kerry lost 15% of the Democratic vote in 2004, most of whom were White Democrats, Obama may lose even more.

New Jersey: - Clinton 70, Obama 28

Another terrible performance among White Democrats in a key state. Will he put New Jersey into play? Many of them might go to McLame. He could put New Jersey into play for the first time since 1988.

Ohio: 69% of the electorate - Clinton 70, Obama 28

Ohio is a swing state that Obama absolutely needs to carry to win the election. Yet he got blown out among a key coalition, and he lost the state by 10 points, despite outspending Hillary 3:1. These Democrats may switch over and vote for McCain if their votes are ignored, especially considering how overwhelming they voted for Clinton. Without winning almost all White Democrats in Ohio, we have very little chance to carry the state.

Pennsylvania: 67% of the electorate- Clinton 65, Obama 35

Pennsylvania is another swing state that Obama absolutely needs to carry if he wants to win the election. There is not a path to the presidency for the Democrats without Pennsylvania. And once again, Obama turns in another meager performance among this voting bloc despite outspending Hillary 3:1. We need a large White Democratic coalition to win Pennsylvania, and if their voters are
overwhelming ignored, they may vote for McCain and give the Republicans the state for the first time since 1988.

Utah: 54% of the electorate - Clinton 48, Obama 48

Even in Obama's blowout win in Utah, he only won half of the white Democratic vote. Once again, he was propped up by rethugs and independendents, a majority of which will vote for McCain in the general election. Obama has no chance of winning Utah in the general, but this just illustrates how unpopular he is among White Democrats.

Virginia: 39% of the electorate - Clinton 56, Obama 44

Another state that Obama won by 25+ points in the primary yet lost the white Democratic vote by double digits. I keep hearing the pipe dream from Obamites about Obama carrying Virginia, but he has no chance if he does this absymally among white Democrats despite winning the state by 25 points. Only 1/5 of the state is Democratic.

Wisconsin: 53% of the electorate - Clinton 51, Obama 48

Wisconsin is the crown jewel of the Obamite electability argument. Yet despite winning by almost 20 points in Wisconsin, he lost the White Democratic vote to Hillary. Once again, he was propped up by Rethugs and Indies in the general election, most of whom will vote for McCain in the general. At the height of Obamamania and before WrightGate and BitterGate, he couldn't even win the White Democratic vote. What does that say about his chances in Wisconsin in the general election?

If Obama has such a problem winning such a key group of our coalition despite being the frontrunner, what does that say about his chances in the general election? Many indies will vote for McCain in the general. Almost all Rethugs will vote for McCain in the general. Obamites forget that the Republican primaries have been over since January 29th and that the Rethugs are playing games in our primaries to keep extending it. They have no intention of voting for Obama in the general. He needs to keep White Democrats in our coalition to have any chance of winning the general election. And given his absymal performance among this voting bloc, his chances of doing that look very likely. These voters voting for McCain in the general is a very distinct possibility.

Let's keep this civil, please. This may be the "elephant in the room", but it needs to be discussed.

[GarbagemanLB]

1. I will never understand the logic of equating the primaries to the general election...

When you have two candidates who have similar positions on most issues, the differences simply come down to demographics.

By the way, he improved in basically EVERY demographic in PA compared to OH.

[Elidor]

25. It's not logic: it's spin

They're hoping no one will point out what you just did. Spin is all Hillary has left.

Obama showed in Iowa that he is fully capable of attracting white, working class voters.

[knixphan]

196. seconded.

[northzax]

221. in a caucus

not a primary. And you will have noticed, no doubt, that there are no caucuses in November. Caucuses hide the 'Bradley Effect' because they are much more skewed towards more activist populations, and they are public. Look at Texas, where he lost the primary by 200,000 votes but easily won the caucus. Not that Texas is really in play, but it is emblematic, again.

[Elidor]

271. Caucus vs. primary is beside the point

The point is: white, working class voters have actually supported Obama. That caucus didn't magically select someone that no one had expressed any support for.

[PoliticalAmazon]

27. Not logic. It's CalvinBall. n/t

[NJSecularist]

28. It's like the Yankees bragging about losing 10-2 in a baseball game instead of 10-0

You still lost, and you spent a lot of money to lose.

[GarbagemanLB]

30. Please answer the question. Why will the majority of Hillary's base vote for McCain over Obama?

[stray cat]

40. Is her support coming from Reagan democrats and values voters?

[NJSecularist]

41. I never said the majority. I said enough to swing the election. n/t

[BootinUp]

96. Bingo!@ nt

[BootinUp]

97. Eureka! I think he's got it. nt

[BootinUp]

98. Holy cow! that makes sense.

[Abacus]

242. .

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5671835&mesg_id=5671835

[BzaDem]

268. EXACTLY!

[EffieBlack]

59. No - it's like a football team pretending they got a first down when they're a yard short . . .

[shadowknows69]

106. Whoever your candidate

I don't think we need to bring the Yankees into this. B-)

[cali]

153. You forgot such states as Vermont

hilly did abysmally in the second whitest state in the union, genius. she lost by 20 points, rural working class whites. I live in the most conservative, whitest, most rural, poorest part of it and she got creamed here. Maine, Colorodo, etc. You're pathetic with your spinning bullshit.

[NJSecularist]

160. Maine and Vermont are reliably Democratic states.

Both Hillary and Obama will win both states by wide margins.

[cali]

183. she won't get the chance. she's done.

now continue with your vile race baiting. What a piece of work you are. and not the sharpest tool in the shed. welcome to my ignore list with the rest of the...

[NJSecularist]

186. Whatever you say. You continue to not address my points and instead engage in cognitive dissonance.

[JoFerret]

274. Pointing out the obvious

is not in itself "race-baiting".

[cjsmom44]

262. RE: BEG TO DIFFER

I'M FROM MAINE

SHE HASN'T A CHANCE

THEY HATE HER

MAINERS ARE AN INDEPENDENT SORT

WE ALSO ARE VERY SKILLED AT SEEING THROUGH BS

THAT IS WHAT WE SEE IN HILLARY

NOT A CHANCE

NEWS FLASH FOR YOU: I HAVEN'T MET ONE PERSON THAT LIKES HER IN MAINE

[gbrenna]

161. New Map

Hi all, this is my first post. I used to be a Democrat until 93...yes I did not like the Clintons. Now I am planning to re-register as a Democrat. In Wisconsin you don't have to choose a party, but I want to. I don't want to bash anyone. I don't like Clinton's campaign tactics and would not vote for her. I would vote for Obama as would many of my Republican friends,Democratic friends and family members. This is why the GOP is trying so hard to make Hillary the nominee. Also, she is despised by conservatives and would rally the conservative base. McCain is in trouble with the base. I would like to point out to people who say Obama must win Ohio, Florida- the so called must win Democratic states that this sort of strategy has resulted in losses all but twice in the last 40 years- Jimmy Carter (Watergate helped) and Bill Clinton (Ross Perot split the vote). In every other election the Republicans won. We need to make up a new map with new states and new voters. Sen. Obama can do this. Sen. Clinton can not. Why do Democrats live and die by a electoral map that favors the Republicans. I hope this post is ok. It is my first since I have seen the light and returned (prodigal daughter) to the Democratic Party.

[NJSecularist]

171. Where is Obama going to win 270 electorate votes without Florida and Ohio?

[gbrenna]

217. New Map

I think western states are a possibility. Also, don't discount the South. Virginia is turning blue. I think South Carolina is possible. Also, this Rove inspired prosecution of a popular Democratic governor has people up in arms in Alabama.I doubt Hillary could win...her negatives are too high. However, I think Obama might. Also, I think Obama could win Ohio-if he could convince voters that he is serious about trade reforms. I live in Wisconsin. Unfair trade is killing us. Sen. Clinton can't do this because Pres. Clinton signed NAFTA and she supported it. Maybe she doesn't anymore, but no one would believe that. I think people are sick of Republican rule in general. There is a real opportunity here. Also, just an opinion from someone new...does anyone think the Supers will take the nomination away from Obama when he can raise more money than anyone ever has? Not to mention, people keep talking about the white working class vote (many of them vote for Republicans on value issues), but what about the black vote...the most loyal Democratic vote? Hillary can not win without it. I do not believe she would have it if Obama is ahead and she somehow gets the nomination. The Supers are not going to damage the party by overturning the will of the people.

[Straight Shooter]

175. Your post is fine, and welcome to DU.

:hi:

Put your seatbelt on and have your barfbag close by, it's a very bumpy ride in the GD Primaries forum.

[gbrenna]

199. Thanks!

Thanks.

[JoFerret]

266. Especially when you translate the results to the electoral college

where these numbers speak disaster for Obama.

[Avalux]

2. You want us to keep it civil after that subject line?

Anything you have to say in your post has been contaminated by that incredibly slanted title. :eyes:

[NJSecularist]

29. It's the truth. Obama has done terribly among white Democrats.

The truth is the truth.

[PoliticalAmazon]

44. Absolutely not true. Hillary is more successful with whites of certain...

ages, but white old women is not a large demographic. In addition, you and the media are using one state, PA, as the basis for your claims about the entire primary. This is a logical fallacy because you are taking one unique group of people and applying findings there to the nation as a whole.

[NJSecularist]

90. Huh?

but white old women is not a large demographic.

It's a huge and RELIABLE democratic, unlike Obama's young voters, who would rather get hammered on election day then go out and vote.

[PoliticalAmazon]

Your inaccurate insult of young voters is disgusting...

...For heaven's sake, they are the future of our nation. They will have to live with the results of this election long after we are gone, just like our grandchildren will be paying off Bush's debt long after we are gone.

[PoliticalAmazon]

121. Duplicate deleted.

My bad.

[jackson_dem]

150. The numbers speak for themselves. When you lost white Dems 70-28 that cuts across age

[northzax]

223. old? You mean over thirty-five?

that's old?

[cali]

155. no it's not "the truth". it's your opinion

just like it's others opinion that hilly won't get the AA vote because of the disgusting race baiting of Camp Clinton. Neither is written in stone.

[NJSecularist]

174. No, it's a fact.

Cherrypicking one state out of 20+ does you no good.

[gmudem]

197. And you conveniently ignore almost all the states he's won

Cough-Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Washington, Minnesota, Iowa, North Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska-Cough

They obviously don't count though.

[NJSecularist]

225. All of them caucuses states. What's your point?

There are no caucuses in the general election. 2% turnout caucuses are not indication of what will happen in the general election.

[CreekDog]

3. I'll be back.

:evilgrin:

[democrattotheend]

4. Maybe we should make the primaries whites only the way we used to

Then we could use white Democrats as the barometer by which we pick a nominee.

And why is the white Democrat vote more important than the white independent vote in terms of gaging electability?

[NJSecularist]

33. Because we are picking a Democratic nominee.

Not an independent nominee.

If you bleed support from your own party, you will not win the general election.

[PoliticalAmazon]

46. Whtie Democratic vote is now more important because Hillary wants it that way. n/t

[jackson_dem]

151. No, the argument is GE electability since GE demographics are different than primary demographics

As the OP proves Obama is propped up by 90% black support in Dem primaries (he does even worse with Latinos than whites). That is fine but the problem with struggling with whites is in the GE the black vote is half the size it is in the Dem primaries. In other words, he would be losing by double digits if the GE's racial demographics were in play in the primaries. Add to that the fact his latte liberal bloc would also shrink by about half in the GE and Obama would be crushed even more. Barack Obama would be the first Democratic nominee to win the nomination while losing so badly across the board. Kerry dominated the primaries and even he got only 41% of whites and 56% of Latinos. If you think Obama is going to match those numbers you are in for a shock come November 4 if he wins...

[EffieBlack]

60. GREAT point!

And why is the white Democrat vote more important than the black Democrat vote, which is consistently dismissed as meaningless?

[democrattotheend]

82. Very true, and I am sick of it. And I'm white, if that matters.

There is such a double standard in the way the pundits slice and dice the exit polls and it's despicable. If a white Democrat had beaten another white Democrat by 24 points in Mississippi, the headline would have been that it was a big win. But for Obama, the headline was that he lost 76% of the white vote, as if that was the only vote that mattered.

[jackson_dem]

154. That is an example of what I am talking about. Here is the MS result with GE demographics

MS in a Dem primary: Obama 57, Clinton 42
MS with GE demographics: Clinton 59, Obama 41

Notice that big swing? The media has done Obama a huge favor by hiding the fact he loses every ethnic groups aside from his own, where he fortunately gets 90% support that masks his weaknesses--in a Dem primary. No one can say this publicly, especially with the Obama campaign's use of the race card, but the superdelegates have to be nervous about this. Kerry got 41% of the white vote in the GE and lost by 3. Obama loses the white vote in the primaries--badly. It is insane to think he will match 41%. Why does this matter? Let's be generous to Obama. Let's give him 37% of the white vote, the same percentage Mondale received in 1984. 27 Let's boost his black support to 95% and say he increases black turnout to 12%, again being generous to Obama. 10.8 Let's give Obama 60% of Latinos and Asians, which is a shaky proposition against McSame. The result? John McSame is the next president of the United States 53-47. 47%. That is only one point better than Dukakis.

[NJSecularist]

Not to mention the fact that it will be miracle if Obama wins 60% of the Latino vote.

John McCain will most likely break even with Obama in the Latino demographic due to his lack of appeal with them.

[AX10]

5. Since when did you support Hillary?

This is quite a last minute switch on your part? Why did you switch to Hillary's team?

[Kittycat]

10. Exactly what I was thinking...

:rofl:

[democrattotheend]

13. The night of the PA primary

This OP posted a topic that night declaring his/her switch to Clinton.

[NJSecularist]

36. I've had questions about Obama's electability for a month now.

I finally switched after Obama got blown out in PA because I think Obama is unelectable.

[ima_sinnic]

109. "blown out"? he took 11 pts away from HRC's previous 20-pt lead

in a state where she was easily expected to win by "double digits." She's the one who was "blown out." She has never been ahead by any metric and now requires more (impossible to get) high percentage of votes than she needed before PA to even have a hope of being the nominee. Anyone who would switch from the winner to the loser--the loser who inspires repukes to eat broken glass rather than vote for her in a GE, with a 55% negativity rating (compared with Obama's of about 49%--from a while ago, before voters knew much about him)--is seriously deluded and not playing with a full deck, one can short of a six-pack, living out where the buses don't run, not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

your post does not pass the smell test. you are a poseur, like most of hrc's "supporters." your posts are a waste of time, so sayonara -- *click*

[bowens43]

6. So in your opinion Democrats are racists?

Fucking pathetic.

[NJSecularist]

38. When did I ever say that?

Quit putting words in my mouth.

[dionysus]

7. yea them dammed nigras is unlektabelll *chew spit*

:eyes:

[EFerrari]

8. Oh no! White people won't vote for a black guy!

Now, explain to me again why he's in the lead against the Obliterator?

[jackson_dem]

156. Chris Dodd is black? He got 0% of the white vote. Obama just has limited appeal beyond his ethnicity

Why is Obama in the lead? 90% of the black vote. 90% of the black vote with 40% of everybody else is enough in a Dem primary. In the GE 40% of everybody else is a ticket to landslide defeat.

[cali]

159. another lying piece of racist shit from the king of that genre

limited appeal beyond his etnicity? That's a flat out lie.

[NJSecularist]

165. Where's the appeal?

He has very little appeal to White Democrats. Which is why most of them are voting for Hilary, as my OP shows.

[jackson_dem]

200. Saying Obama loses whites due to racism is like saying Richardson lost due to racism

[ecdab]

227. What? His position on the issues is almost the same as Hillary's

and you are trying to sell "he has very little appeal to white voters". Are you saying white voters don't look at the issues, they only look at the color of peoples skin? Sure there are some racists in the party, but they are a small subset of the Democratic base.

Do you actual believe what you typed?

[nichomachus]

9. Fatal flaw in logic

Anyone who would vote for McCain or would refuse to help keep McCain out of the White House isn't a "Democrat." So your original premise is fatally flawed. They may call themselves Democrats, but they aren't.

[Kittycat]

15. You can't argue that with HillFans.

They refuse to face facts.

Hillary is the one at greater risk, for isolating so many groups (activists, AA, youth, latte liberals, MANY states in between, etc, etc). She's even polling behind Obama in many of those "so called" big states she won previously. Maybe her new stance on nuking the fucking middle east has something to do with it?

More of the Same... Hillary McLieberman for pRESIDENT

[Hippo_Tron]

35. Agreed, it's a flawed interpretation of the data

They read this mean that white people don't like Obama. I read it to mean that Hillary Clinton is extremely popular among Democrats and would be impossible to beat if Obama weren't getting 9-1 black votes. Obama would get white votes in the GE and Hillary would get black votes in the GE.

[jackson_dem]

158. Of course he would win most but the $270 question is how many?

Mondale won 76% of Democrats and look at what happened. Kerry won 89% and lost. If 20-25% of white Dems vote against Obama he is done and then there is his weakness among Latinos.

For Obama to win the minimum is 43% of whites, 70% of Latinos, 90% of blacks, and 60% of everybody else. The problem is since whites are almost 3/4 of voters he has little margin for error. If that 43% becomes 41%, like it was for Kerry, he loses.

[NJSecularist]

43. If you are registered as a Democrat, you are a Democrat.

You can't pick and choose what a Democrat is.

Kerry lost 10% of the Democratic vote in 2004. He lost the election.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

117. Furthermore, I think a lot of them will vote McCain in November if Hillary gets the nom. nt

[northzax]

226. and those are the people who get to vote in november

you know it's not just 'democrats' as you define them at that point, right? The middle 20 percent decide elections, and they are overwhelmingly white and suburban.

[haymakeragain]

11. I'm sure they'll all vote McCain right?

Is that your point? If so, it's not a good one.

[uponit7771]

12. You're right. those people will vote for more war, less health care & GOP econ policies :rolleyes:

[stray cat]

71. In 2000 and in 2004 why not 2008?

[Orangepeel]

14. It's less abysmal than Clinton's performance among African American Democrats

So what? Primary elections aren't general elections.

[Kittycat]

23. HuffPo: Irreparable Breach Between Clinton And Blacks Is Foreseeable

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/25/obama-backer-irreparable_n_98638.html

A key Obama supporter in North Carolina said it was "foreseeable" that an "irreparable breach" had been created between the black community and the Clintons as a byproduct of conduct during the Democratic campaign.

You do realize there are two key groups to the democratic base that no democrat can win without. We can however win without the Racist Bigot vote...

AA vote
Activist/grassroots Vote

She has thrown both of them under the bus along with far more than that.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

136. Don't forget young people.

They were the only age demographic to vote for Kerry.

[krkaufman]

273. That recent Politico post summed the issue up, rather well.

Basically, Obama will be the nominee. The superdelegates are NOT going to jeopardize the future of the party by alienating the massive youth vote this cycle. If the superdelegates take the nom away from Obama, the Dem Party will have lost a generation. (ah, here it is... this article. It makes several salient points as to why Obama *will be* the nominee.)

p.s. I would add my own spin, as well, that going with Obama and LOSING will also be better for the party, because the youth demo will then be alienated even further from the Republican Party, having seen the campaign that they had run against Obama. (In the same way that the youth have become alienated from the Clintons.) The Party elders will be looking-out for the future of the Party, and it lies with an Obama nomination.

[crim son]

16. I'm hoping that all the disgusted repukes will vote Obama.

I know of an awful lot who are, because they don't want McSame and they HATE Hillary. Obama = the lesser evil.

[The Magistrate]

17. Try The Mirror Of This Argument, Sir

Sen. Clinton's performance among Black Democrats has been abysmal in the primarues. Therefore, she cannot count on the votes of Black Democrats in the general election should she gain the nomination. Sen. Obama must receive the nomination if the Democratic nominee is to get the votes of Black Democrats.

You will see, doubtless, that the reflection in the glass does not look much better than the original object.. There is no real reason to suppose white Democrats who voted for Sen. Clinton in their primaries will not vote for Sen. Obama in the general election if he is the nominee, any more than there is to suppose the opposite case concern Black Democrats and Sen. Clinton.

[Jersey Devil]

22. bravo - well done

kudos

[NJSecularist]

47. Blacks have voted for Democrats for 30 years.

They are a very loyal demographic for the Democrats. Whites, less so.

Are they going to vote for John "I voted against MLK Day" McCain?

[The Magistrate]

62. And Whites Who Identify As Democrats Tend, Too, To Vote For Democrats, Sir

If one were in a truely impish mood, one could take the tack that White Democrats have shown a much greater propensity to vote for Sen. Obama than Black Democrats have to vote for Sen. Clinton.

Leaving aside your reduction of the matter to a vote on a holiday observance where Blacks are concerned, do you suppose that white Democrats are going to troop out to vote for "More War! Less Jobs!" as the McCain campaign eagerly promises the country if the Democratic nominee is not Sen. Clinton?

[NJSecularist]

Tell that to John Kerry.

He lost enough White Democrats to lose the election. Obama is on pace to lose more.

[The Magistrate]

76. So You Are Saying, Sir, that White Democrats Will Not Vote For A White Candidate Either?

Where would that leave Sen. Clinton?

You can hardly point to Sen. Kerry having displayed any great weakness in attracting the votes of white Democrats in the '04 primary season for explaination....

[NJSecularist]

80. No, what I am saying is that there is a certain type of candidate will appeal to these voters.

John Kerry wasn't it. Obama won't be it either.

[The Magistrate]

89. This Can Be Played From A Number Of Angles, Sir

Sen. Clinton, for example, does far better with women voters than with male voters in the Democratic primaries. Why should we not therefore conclude that there will be a great defection of male Democrats should she be the nominee?

[NJSecularist]

99. Hillary does about equal among White Democratic males as Obama.

So, no, that isn't a convincing argument.

[The Magistrate]

107. But We Have Got Beyond That Already, Sir, In This Little Exercise

In regard to Sen. Kerry, you have acknowledge his performance among white voters in Democratic primaries had no bearing on the results in the general election, saying he 'just was not the kind of candidate that appealed to white Democrats' in November,. If the strong appeal of Sen. Kerry to white voters in the '04 Democratic primary did not prevent him being 'just not the kind of candidate that appealed to white Democrats' in the general election, why should the performance of Sen. Clinton among white Democrats in primaries this year establish she will not be 'just not the kind of candidate that appeals to white Democrats' in the general election?

[NJSecularist]

108. What is happening now is apples and oranges to the 2004 primary.

After Iowa and New Hampshire, the primaries were essentially over.

You cannot take reliable results from Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and other states because those primaries were essentially over. Wisconsin was the only state that was uncontested, and Kerry had almost won the nomination by then.

[The Magistrate]

116. Primary Elections And General Elections Are Apples And Oranges, Sir

The only predictive value primary elections have is in their total turn-out, which for the Democrats this year is startling large, and in the earlier period when the Republican race was still a contest, far greater than total Republican turn-out.

Please understand this has been an exercise in the impish delights of devil's advocacy on my part. My position is that both Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama would make excellent candidates for our Party, and that each would make a great President for the United States, There really is not much difference between them on substance, and each has a very effective political style. It is precisely their broad similarity that has both prolonged this contest and driven it to such bitter focus on trifles, and exaggerations.

[Aloha Spirit]

123. Amen

[Aloha Spirit]

114. I'm sorry, but Obama does extremely well against Clinton among men....

Arizona- Clinton 43, Obama 48
California: - Clinton 45, Obama 48
Connecticut: - Clinton 38, Obama 59
Delaware: - Clinton 38, Obama 58
Illinois: - Obama 29, Clinton 67
Maryland: - Clinton 33, Obama 62
Massachusetts: - Clinton 48, Obama 49
Missouri: - Clinton 47, Obama 49
New Jersey: - Clinton 48, Obama 49
New York: - Clinton 50, Obama 45
Ohio: - Clinton 50, Obama 48
Pennsylvania: - Clinton 49, Obama 51
Rhode Island - Clinton 51, Obama 49
Texas: - Clinton 47, Obama 51
Utah: - Clinton 28, Obama 65
Vermont: - Clinton 35, Obama 64
Virginia: - Clinton 30, Obama 68
Wisconsin: - Clinton 31, Obama 67

[jackson_dem]

163. There will be but she more than offsets that by getting more female support than Obama

[NJSecularist]

169. More female support, more Latino support, more core Democratic support.

The only thing Obama has is under 30 support and black support, the latter of which will likely vote for Hillary in the general anyways.

[jackson_dem]

205. The only shot Obama has is indies and they will peel away as he gets vetted, attacked as "too libera

The main appeal, though, he has to indies is his post-partisan rhetoric. The rethugs are already challenging that. They will kill that, which is just words, because Obama has no record of post-partisanship. What is his response when they ask him to point to one controversial issue on which he united both parties? He has none. Goodbye post-partisanship card, goodbye indies.

[NJSecularist]

210. McCain likely win more indies as Obama gets vetted.

Thus, you need to keep the base in your party to have any chance of winning. Obama would do exactly the opposite of that. He would bleed core Democratic support, including working class whites, females and Latinos.

[jackson_dem]

218. That is the common sense strategy

Obamites would trade solid Democrats away for flimsy indies. Dems, even Reagan Dems, are far more likely to ultimately vote for the Dem nominee than indies.

[ecdab]

229. Solid Democrats - i.e. people that vote on Democratic issues and

policies, will vote for Obama if they were willing to vote for Clinton.

Why wouldn't they - Obama and Clinton are essentially the same on the issues? So who are these "solid" Democrats to which you refer?

[JoFerret]

275. Good chance of that

Once the GOP winds up.

[jackson_dem]

162. Obama is a much weaker candidate than Clinton for GE

His weaknesses are masked in the primaries by the black and Starbucks Democrats blocs being double the size they will be in the GE. His problem is his limited appeal. This was not the case with Kerry, Gore, Bill Clinton, or Dukakis. Throw in GE demographics and Obama would be down by over 15% in the popular vote instead of +0.7.

[NJSecularist]

180. The undemocratic caucus system has given Obama his delegate margins.

He will not have that luxury in the general election.

His inability to appeal to White Democrats and Latinos will be readily apparent in the general election.

[EffieBlack]

65. This may be the wrong year to take black voters for granted, assuming that they have nowhere else to

go.

If this continues the way it is, you may very well see black voters voting for McCain - or not voting at all.

Black voters - the most loyal demographic in the party - have been kicked to the curb time after time by Democrats who are so eager to chase after undependable white voters. But this year it's different. If Democrats take blacks for granted this time, they may see a major realignment of black voters not seen since 1960.

[jackson_dem]

167. Which is an interesting proposition: is not nominating Obama an affront to the other 40 million AA's

This will be on the minds of supers. Let's suppose Jesse Jackson ran this time instead of Obama. He would have won 90% of the black vote too, like he did in the 80's. Would that mean it would be an insult to 40 million other people if he were not nominated? In fact we kind of had this happen. Jackson did run and win the same level of black support Obama now enjoys. Jackson demanded, with much justification, to be put on the ticket due to his second place finish. He wasn't put on it. The result? Dukakis still won 90% of the black vote. Of course this is completely different. We are talking prez, not veep and Jackson lost clearly in the nomination process. It is still an interesting historical fact in light of today's discussion, which especially heated up after Obama lost PA. This is Obama's best, last line of defense against the supers.

[LSparkle]

79. They may sit this one out ... Hillary has turned into the WHITE candidate

She's been trying to marginalize Obama -- to turn him into the
BLACK candidate -- and what she's left with is being the WHITE
candidate herself.

Jim Clyburn wouldn't be making the kinds of statements he has
been if he didn't see a REAL schism occurring between HRC and
black Americans. Repeat -- NOT a schism between the DEMOCRATIC
PARTY and black Americans, just one between blacks and the
CLINTONS.

[jackson_dem]

168. Clinton wins outside of her ethnic group. She wins Latinos 2:1 and Asians by almost as much

Clinton's appeal cuts across ethnic lines, just like that of every other Dem nominee in a generation...

[LSparkle]

176. Yet loses the historically most loyal Dem constituency by HUGE margins?

That says something about her candidacy, imho.

[NJSecularist]

190. She will not lose the most loyal Dem constituency by a huge margin in the GE.

In fact, she will win that constituency by a large margin.

[LSparkle]

194. You (like your candidate) are taking a LOT of people for granted ...

The Clinton philosophy of "win now, repair damage later" isn't
going to necessarily work this time. First she disses blacks,
then activists (MoveOn) ... thinking all along that "they'll
come home in the end." She's been running a general election
campaign while ignoring the base for a year. She truly has
underestimated the ability of some people to be hurt.

Paraphrasing Rev. Wright, "the chickens will come home to
roost" (or in this case, the voters will stay away).

[jackson_dem]

201. So did Dukakis in the 88' primaries (10-90). What happened when Dukakis had a white GE opponent?

[jefferson_dem]

They are loyal and this is their reward?

Fuck that. I wouldn't blame them for revolting if she steals this nomination.

Some here might even want to join in that ... revolution.

[jackson_dem]

208. Latinos are too. So Richardson should be named VP or else it is giving the finger to 15% of the USA?

How about women? Jews? Jews are the second most loyal Dem constituency. Obama-Rendell? ;)

[EffieBlack]

61. I love you . . .

:hug:

[bunnies]

18. so none of the white folks who voted for Hillary will vote for Obama.

Is that what you're saying? That even though they're Dems, they'll all vote for McCain simply because he's white.

Gee, calling Hillarys supporters racist isnt very nice of you. Furthermore, the premise is bullshit.

[ecdab]

230. That's really what this thread amounts to - the claim that most white Democrats are racist

and as such will not vote for Obama because of the color of his skin. Then it takes the next step using that twisted logic to put forward the case that since most white Democrats are racist we shouldn't nominate a black man. And some Hillary supporters wonder why they get racist from time to time? Here's a Hillary supporter claiming they are all racist.

[Indenturedebtor]

19. Here you go

Personally I like to just google for such pictures... but if you're feeling lazy today and prefer to get them by posting I'll oblige:



Have a good day!

[Name removed]

20. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

31. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[NJSecularist]

48. Those are your own words, not mine. I never said such a thing. n/t

[Hippo_Tron]

21. You are ignoring the concept of Clinton loyalty

This is unlike any other primary. Nobody has ever had to run against a former first lady of a very popular President. Hillary is getting between 7-3 and 6-4 White Democrats because her husband was President. If Obama were white she'd be getting the same percentages with black votes and have this thing locked up a long time ago.

Obama has no problem with White Democrats. They just like Hillary better.

[PoliticalAmazon]

39. For now. But as a trend, the more voters get to know Hillary, the more they move...

...to Obama.

Hillary seems to forget that most Democratic Party voters have liberal/progressive values. They aren't Republicans.

You would think that Hillary is running for the Republican Primary, by her tactics and her actions.

[NJSecularist]

50. If Obama were white, he wouldn't be getting 90% of the black vote.

Obama has no problem with White Democrats.

The data says otherwise. Despite being the frontrunner and outspending Obama 3:1, he still can't make in-roads with White Democrats.

[EffieBlack]

66. You know this how?

[NJSecularist]

69. Because Hillary and the Clintons used to have tons of black support.

Obama would not be getting 90% of the black vote if he wasn't black.

[EffieBlack]

101. That's a pretty bizarre leap of logic

Do you really think that the ONLY reason that black voters would vote for someone other than Hillary Clinton is that they are so stupid and blinded by race that they just wander off to whomever happens to have brown skin?

So, how do you explain:

1) At the beginning of the campaign, black voters supported Hillary over Obama 2-1. Did those voters not know that Obama was black and only later discovered that fact, prompting them to desert Hillary as soon as they found out?

2) 80% of black voters voted for white candidates in 2004 AGAINST a black candidate. Were black voters smart, discerning and color-blind in 2004, able to vote for non-black candidates with no problem, but got color-struck in 2008 and couldn't help but vote for the black guy?

[NJSecularist]

104. I think you made my point.

If Obama wasn't black, he wouldn't be winning 90% of black support.

Hillary would be winning most of the black support because she is the establishment candidate who has always had terrific black support.

[EffieBlack]

118. If you think I made your point, you're even more confused

than originally appeared to be.

[Hippo_Tron]

73. The data doesn't support your conclusions

Your assumption is that...

White Democrats vote for Hillary in the primary = White Democrats won't vote for Obama in the General Election.

Obama is not a typical frontrunner. He is still running against a former first lady who can still compete because of that alone. Any other candidate with finances as dismal as hers would have had to drop out by now.

And I agree that Obama wouldn't be getting 90% of the black vote if he wasn't black. Hillary wouldn't be getting 60-70% of the white vote if her last name wasn't Clinton.

[jackson_dem]

172. That isn't the assumption

Obama will win most white Dems in the GE as he will win Latino Dems. The question is how many defections there will be. Kerry won both white and Latino Dems but enough defected to cost him the GE.

There is a significant difference, hippo. Clinton's name will be Clinton in November. Obama's black vote will be cut in half. Where does he make that ground up? Oh, his Starbucks Dems are cut in about half too. Where does he make that up? What about his youth voters? Will they show up when the fad ends?

Both are flawed candidates with limited coalitions. Clinton's coalition is broader and hers expands in the general while Obama's declines. Strictly on electability Clinton should be the nominee, but we have to weight the importance of winning the GE with the risk of alienating the AA vote as this thread shows. Maybe it is better for Obama to lose and keep AA's in the fold than to win and fracture the party. There's always 2012.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

24. Perhaps Obama should don a sheet and wave the 'Fedrut flag to appeal to them.

And, lambaste the "welfare queens", restart the "southern strategy", and complain about busing.

[DJ13]

26. You're in the wrong party if you use racism

However, that quality makes you the perfect Clinton shill.

[NJSecularist]

52. Who is using racism?

[chascarrillo]

55. You.

[ecdab]

231. What is your argument other than "because Obama is black, some white

folks may not vote for him (even though on the issues he is basically the same as Hillary), so we shouldn't nominated him. We should pander to the racist."

You are certainly using racism. You are using it to make a case for Hillary. Please clarify how you are not using racism.

[Jersey Devil]

32. my guess - you're from South Jersey, maybe Salem or Cumberland Co

certainly a part of NJ that is extremely conservative. Saying that nominating Obama could put NJ in play is utterly ridiculous.

[NJSecularist]

75. I'm in Ocean County and I'm extremely liberal.

Try again.

[Jersey Devil]

86. Ocean County - I wasn't that far off

My parents lived in Ocean County for a while. Mostly refugees from Staten Island, extremely conservative, can't use the beaches without a beach badge (another cool way to impose segregation, Jersey style).

[NJSecularist]

92. I am from a conservative county. I'm liberal.

What's your point?

[Jersey Devil]

When's the last time Ocean County elected a Democrat?

For: President, Governor, US Senate, House of Representatives? It is one of the reddest counties in NJ and I would bet the white voters of Ocean County would bury Clinton just as deeply as they would Obama.

[NJSecularist]

110. Gore lost Ocean County by one point. Clinton won it by 6 in 1996. n/t

[Jersey Devil]

112. That's exactly what I just said

It is a blue moon indeed when Ocean elects a Democrat. Your point is that Obama can't win over white voters. But do you think NJ would ever elect a Democrat without black voters? What do you think they would do if Obama is thrown under the bus for Hillary when he has more pledged delegates? Essex County would probably go red for the first time in history.

[jackson_dem]

178. Let's use some common sense. Obama does better than Clinton in Iowa

Is that because of sexism? Candidates have differing appeals. The fact is Obama's appeal outside of his ethnic group is limited, with a few exceptions that will always exist. This is a fact and to blame it on racism is as dumb as blaming Richardson losing on racism.

[jackson_dem]

173. The facts show Obama may lose NJ

[wileedog]

34. Stopped reading here:

"His performance among the white vote has been articially inflated by the independent and rethug vote, a majority of which will vote for McCain in the general."

Why will the majority of independents vote for McCain when he is for staying in Iraq? Other than the truly hardcore Republicans (who BTW don't even like him) the vast majority of this country wants OUT.

Why will they go to McCain?

Economy? More tax cuts for rich people? More globalization?

Er, no.

Bombing Iran? You really think that is what most moderates and independents in this country want?

DOes he even have the vaguest clue what to do about failing education, housing markets or healthcare systems?

Your whole premise is based on the false assumption that Obama won't carry a large majority of independents, something he has consistently done in the primaries (if we're going to use a false arguement anyway) and he can certainly continue to do against McCain.

[stray cat]

37. Hillary is abysmal with blacks and young people and weaker with increasing education

Each of our candidates has a core constituency - and its not just one elephant in the room. The problem for Obama may be that Hillary's constituents may easily switch to McCain while Obama's constituents may just stay home and not vote but are less likely to switch their allegiance to the Republican party. Of course some of Hillary's constituents may vote for McCain anyway even with Hillary as the candidate.

[NJSecularist]

53. Young people and affluents do not make a Democratic coalition.

Blacks will not vote for John "I voted against MLK Day" McCain.

[stray cat]

67. College educated, those under 30 and blacks may decide to stay home...

[cali]

166. oh, now YOU have the gall to speak for what AA voters will

do? you are profoundly clueless. And that was abundantly clear long before you switched to hilly.

[Ashy Larry]

42. You couldn't be more wrong.

[lojasmo]

45. Fear of racists=capitulation. Fvck that.

[jackson_dem]

179. Richardson lost. Is that because of racism or because of his limited appeal?

What about Dodd? He got 0% of the white vote.

[Vickers]

49. This white democrat is gonna pull the lever for Obama.

:thumbsup:

[NJSecularist]

54. You are one out of millions.

The data says Obama is having a very big problem courting the white Democrat vote despite outspending Hillary 3:1 and being the frontrunner.

[stray cat]

63. Obama is having trouble pulling women away from Hillary

And Hillary can't pull blacks, young people and those with increasing education away from Obama

[Vickers]

72. Amazing how you can outspend...when you have the money.

:eyes:

[Triana]

51. Stats on Independents and Conservatives who "will vote for McCain in the General" please?

What are you basing that on? CONservatives may well do that (though many of them don't like McCain either) - but Independents? I'm not convinced. And how many MEN won't vote for Hillary? They'll vote McCain instead. Seems there were a lot of those.

So what are your stats on all that?

Without including ALL of them, this info is useless.

[NJSecularist]

57. McCain courts independents just as well as Obama.

With WrightGate and BitterGate, Obama has lost some independent support.

[EffieBlack]

56. Since no Democrat can win without the support of black voters, why don't you worry about HRC's even

more abysmal performance among black voters?

And Obama is slowly winning more white voters over to his side while black voters are leaving Hillary in droves. Obama can get more white voters. Hillary is unlikely to get black voters back.

It sounds like you're making the same assumption that many commentators make - that black voters are less important than white voters. Folks are running around wringing their hands about blue collar whites while completely forgetting the fact that black voters are also a pivotal demographic without whom, the Democratic nominee is doomed.

[NJSecularist]

58. ...

And Obama is slowly winning more white voters over to his side while black voters are leaving Hillary in droves. Obama can get more white voters. Hillary is unlikely to get black voters back.

There is no basis in fact for that statement. Only wishful thinking. Apparently we forget how much most blacks liked the Clinton family and how much support she had before this primary.

[EFerrari]

77. How many latte liberals are there in Iowa?

And yes, historically, Obama does better and better with the groups he reaches out to -- including older women in PA.

And, yes, before the Clintons started on their Rovian trek, they did enjoy support in the black community. That was then.

[NJSecularist]

81. One state out of 43? Congratulations on cherrypicking.

How about Pennsylvania? Ohio? Florida?

[EFerrari]

85. Who really is cherry picking here?

OH and PA are conservative states. And FL has been under siege for years. No one knows the will of the electorate there. We only know the will of big money.

lol

[NJSecularist]

88. Ohio and Pennsylvania are not conservative states.

They are swing states. Let me get this straight: under the Obama strategy, we will throw away Pennsylvania and Ohio in the general election! What a great plan!

[EFerrari]

91. OH and PA are conservative states with corrupt elections systems

that "swing" on the backs of disenfrancished black voters.

Next?

[NJSecularist]

94. Bill won both states in 1992 and 1996.

As I said, they are swing states.

How does St. Obama plan on winning the election without Pennsylvania and Ohio?

[EFerrari]

224. Rasmussen has him up over McCain in PA. n/t

[jackson_dem]

187. PA has voted Dem 4 times in a row, has a Dem governor, and one Dem senator

Let's compare that to Utah and Idaho, which Obama will allegedly win. Their 7-8 electoral votes will offset PA's 21 according to Obamits.

[mtnester]

259. Did you even BOTHER to see what Ohio did in 2006?

With the exception of ONE state held primary office (auditor) we cleaned house and elected all Dems. OUr house and senate come closer each year to being Dem controlled. And our SOS declared the machines to be suspect and hackable and the temporary solution was to allow paper ballots if you want one. Now, she has to get the funding from a Repub held statw senate/house in to fix the machine method, and is in the process of a study on mail in voting for the entire state. She REMOVED people from the Cuyahoga County BOE...stripped them from their poitions for absolute corruption. Jennifer Brunner is working tirelessly to fix the horrifying mess that scum Ken Blackwell left behind. Kind of like the cleanup mission a Dem will have when we retake the White House..YEARS of work.

Ohio sits as a swing state which will trend Dem given the opportunity. There is one real larger pocket of red in this state, and it sits squarely in the Cincinnati, AND is shrinking each year.

Oh, and the voters that were disenfranchised in the precinct I watched were a good mix of our country... black, white, men, women, latino, asian, young, old. The disenfranchising went across the board to ALL of them, BECAUSE IT IS A DEMOCRATIC LEANING PRECINCT...not because there were some folks of different ethnic backgrounds. We had just as many white/latino/asian folks as black folks have issues in 2004, AND 2006 when they came out by droves to throw the bums out. Where I spent half of a day was almost completely an all white precinct, and the damn COURTS had to intervene with a restraining order and remove that precinct captain from the building....a black republican...for HAVA violations so egregious that woman should have been arrested and done some jail time.

So, if you would like to make a blanket statement about Ohio in 2004 while conveniently forgetting everything that happened in the last 2 years in this state...go ahead.

[cali]

170. lol YOU cherry pick. ND, ME, CO, KS, VT, MN, WA

and so many more. White voters here in VT rejected hilly for Obama by a 21 pt margin. She got walloped in ME and CO. He polls better in those states against McCain than hillypoo. Fuck your cherry picking bullshit, dearie.

[NJSecularist]

203. Minnesota, Maine Colorado and Washington were caucuses.

Are there any caucuses in the general election?

McLame will win North Dakota and Kansas. Not to mention that they are both caucuses.

So all you have is Vermont. And either Dem will win that state easily.

[jackson_dem]

184. How many caucuses are there in the general election?

It always gets back to a few caucuses. In primaries the two states Obamites point to where he won with a broad coalition are Virginia and Wisconsin. Even there, though, he lost white Democrats and especially lost white working people.

[NJSecularist]

207. Obamites think that 2% turnout in a caucus means that Obama will carry the state.

[jackson_dem]

182. The opposite is the case. Obama has tanked with whites since he began being vetted

See the OP.

We have to weigh all the facts but to emphasize the importance of the black bloc is as legitimate as emphasizing that of the white working class bloc. We need to weigh numbers too and long-term damage. 10% of 20-30% is not the same as 10% of 10%. Losing the white working class in 2008 is not the same as losing AA's. We may lose AA's for a generation. With white working class people Obama could lose and everyone could be back in the fold in 2012.

[David__77]

64. Well he did great among Black voters. What's your point?

Are you saying white votes are special? He's gotten more votes overall.

[NJSecularist]

68. Whites consist of 77% of the electorate, blacks consist of 11% of the electorate.

Which one has more voters?

[stray cat]

70. How about under 30, college educated or black?

[NJSecularist]

74. Obama's coalition consists of about 30% of the electorate. n/t

[David__77]

78. No Democratic has won a majority of whites since 1964.

This is not new. I consider your strategic view to be narrow. Obama can construct a majority coalition.

[Hippo_Tron]

83. His strategic view is also based on Hillary getting working class whites that aren't Democrats

And there's a fat chance of that. Hillary is the most polarizing person in the country. Roughly half of the country likes her, roughly half hates her and will vote for McDinosaur no matter what. She has a very very small percentage of undecideds that she will be able to appeal to.

[NJSecularist]

84. How? Latinos will likely split 50-50 with McCain as Obama as the nominee.

What about white women? Hillary is the only candidate that can make in-roads in this demographic. If Obama is nominated, the Rethugs will win that demographic.

[David__77]

111. McCain will be easy to politically decimate.

He's a psychopath and a likely traitor to boot. There's plenty of opportunities for a 527 to sink him.

[jackson_dem]

189. They can't defend the simple fact his coalition is too small to win the GE

And it is idiotic to attribute it to racism. Did Richardson lose due to racism?

[NJSecularist]

195. No, he didn't. He's just a flawed candidate.

[jackson_dem]

209. Look at this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5688824

[NJSecularist]

215. I need to donate soon. I should create the same type of poll about Obama if he loses in the GE.

I wonder what kind of results I'll get? :sarcasm:

[jackson_dem]

220. He won't lose the GE. He loses the white vote in Dem primaries due to racism

But racism will disappear in the GE when more racists vote as rethugs and indies come into the process! It is funny. Even their excuse for Obama means he is unelectable. They manage to have it both ways: blame big primary losses on racism, blame losing the white vote in almost every primary on racism, and then "thinking" somehow all this will change in the GE. :wtf: The racist party is the rethugs. They think he can win a lot of rethugs. There are also more racist indies than racist Dems. Even the Dems in the GE are more racist than primary Dems. There is a correlation between some socieconomic factors and incidence of racism among groups. Given this Dem primary voters are less racist on a whole than the Dems who don't vote in primaries but will vote in the GE. Talk about the audacity of hope...

[jackson_dem]

188. Of course but you also need at least 43%. Kerry won 41% and he lost the GE by 3

Obama can? He hasn't so far. In fact his coalition is getting smaller as he gets vetted...

[ecdab]

233. blacks are 11%, but what percentage of the white vote will decide

how to vote based on the color of somebodies skin? It sure isn't any where close to 77% of the electorate.

[EffieBlack]

241. And that 11% is enough to make or break a Democrat - that's what is scaring some of you to death

A Democrat cannot win without the black vote. If blacks decide to sit this one out, that would spell serious trouble for the Democratic nominee.

The more I listen to and read the irrational hysteria and outright bigoted proclamations such as we're seeing in this thread, the clearer it becomes that the problem for some of you is NOT that Obama can't win the general, but that he CAN win the general and it could very likely be the black vote that puts him over the top. And just as scary is that, on the other hand, it is possible that, by withholding their usually reliable-through-thick-and-thin-no-matter-what Democratic vote from Hillary Clinton, black voters could guarantee her defeat and, thereby, demonstrate a degree of concentrated political power that no longer is limited only to electing white Democrats but can and will also be harnessed to defeat them.

Scary, isn't it?

[BootinUp]

87. To those that are surprised:

I TOLD YOU SO! :mad:

[BlooInBloo]

93. Well duh. White folks won't in general vote for a black guy unless there's no other choice...

... And not even then, in a large percentage of the cases. This is one battle in the war currently being fought.

[BootinUp]

95. The Florida numbers are staggering, guess we write that one off. nt

[NJSecularist]

100. With Obama, we write off both Ohio and Florida.

And we put Pennsylvania in play for McLame.

Yet Obamites think we will win the election when we will likely lose 2 or 3 of those states.

[BootinUp]

102. Who needs 'em

anyways. :sarcasm:

[NJSecularist]

103. They're too conservative!!

Screw em. We can win Texas, Idaho and Alaska instead! :sarcasm: :sarcasm:

[BootinUp]

105. thats right, we got a good shot at those

lol.

[TTUBatfan2008]

113. All I'll say is this...

change is hard. If whites, including supposed progressives, are still ridiculously uncomfortable voting for a black person, then this country is nowhere near as far along in race relations as we pretend to be. Even if it means losing the election, if it unveils the ugly truth about the American subconscious, then so be it. It's about damn time some truth is revealed in this matter. If we shy away from nominating him because of this fear that whites won't vote for him, then we will only continue to facilitate the problem instead of confronting it and eventually making it unacceptable to the public.

[EffieBlack]

243. THANK you!

[jefferson_dem]

115. Hey jackson, how come you never addressed the bigger problem Hillary has with non-white voters?

She earns 8-10% of the most loyal bloc of voters in the Democratic coalition. Those are the same voters she wants to shaft ... with the help of unaccountable super-duper delegates. It's hard to imagine how any Democrat would support that.

[NJSecularist]

120. Hillary does not have a problem with Latino voters.

She did not have a problem with black voters until Obama's campaign swiftboated the Clintons about race in North Carolina.

[TTUBatfan2008]

124. Bill swiftboated himself by trying to demean Obama's win there...

[jefferson_dem]

128. I hope Hillary picks up the "I'm a victim of racial swiftboating" meme.

Please. Please. Please.

NC? You mean SC?

[EffieBlack]

244. So you think black people are so stupid that Obama can fool them into turning on the Clintons?

Too bad black voters aren't as savvy and sophisticated as white voters - you know, the so-called "swing" white voters who run back and forth between Democrats and Republicans like a pinball depending upon which of their hot-button wedge issues are pressed in any given election cycle?

Right.

[anonymous171]

119. Blacks will vote for McCain if Clinton is the nom?

[TTUBatfan2008]

122. No, they'll stay home.

And so will I (white, 22 years old). I am not a Democrat, but I will say that I'll never vote for the Democratic Party if party insiders overturn the will of the people. By the way, I am 100% behind the re-votes in Michigan and Florida, though I think Michigan deserves some kind of penalty. Florida got screwed over by the Republican governor and legislature, but Michigan deliberately moved their primary in order to "have more influence" on the race. They deserve a penalty. But I do think there should be re-votes of some sort done in both states so that every state has a voice.

[wrando]

127. you don't know

You should speak for yourself. Most black people have real lives, and are concerned for their country. They can't afford to stomp their feet or hold their breath like you.

bill from ct

[TTUBatfan2008]

129. WTF?

"can't afford to stomp their feet"? Nice. :sarcasm:

[cliffordu]

125. I agree completely that we should throw Obama under the bus

And live with McCain for the next 8 years.

Great plan!!!!

:sarcasm:

NJSecularist, you ALWAYS come up with the best plan!!!

[wrando]

131. is that what he said?

How the hell do you equate this post with throwing Obama under the bus? These are simply stats, and you can't argue that.

What's the plan that's being put forward.

These are problems that have to be addressed, but the realities of what it means will only be known in Nov.

It's hard to see how Obama is not on top of the dem ticket.

unified ticket, however personally distasteful it might be for these two might be the only plan that will work

bill from ct

[NJSecularist]

132. The Obamites haven't been able to dismiss any of my points.

They just throw ad hominem grenades at me instead.

[wrando]

133. it's not logical

Spock would blow a gasket

many of these people feel passionately about Obama, but I'm not sure they know why

bill from ct

[cliffordu]

Well......This poster uses this kind of thing as a reason to take

the nomination from Obama all the time.

"He's not electable" being code for 'A black man cannot be president...this time around."

Hide behind the stats and you can say just about anything.

Hang out long enough and see for yourself.

[wrando]

146. motives

the posters motives are only relevant if the stats are wrong

I haven't heard any objection to the stats

bill from ct

[cliffordu]

148. THESE STATS DO NOT REFLECT WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER MCCAIN

AND OBAMA GO AT EACH OTHER FOR A WHILE.

All these "facts" are based on bad data. They mean nothing except

Fear Uncertainty and Doubt by a guy with an agenda.


Bogus Posit, Dude.

[wrando]

204. partially true

But even though the black vote is more unbalanced, Obama still needs more white votes.

after McCain is factored in I think he'll still come up short, but we'll see soon enough

Bill from ct

[mmonk]

126. To take you seriously I would have to think you weren't for trying

to create and expand division.

[bvar22]

130. It was all those Black voters in Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho....

..that gave Obama "Blowout" victories in those states.

The ONE Fact that matters:
Obama has WON and insurmountable lead over Hillary among American Voters!

Obama IS the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Case Closed.


If you believe that the Democratic nominee will have trouble getting the "White" Democratic vote, then your ONLY option is work harder educating the ignorant to get the Democrat elected.

[NJSecularist]

134. Wyoming and Idaho were low turnout caucuses.

Only 2% of registered voters showed up at those caucuses.

Utah is a traditionally Republican state. In addition, Obama didn't even win the White Democratic vote in the state.

Don't you love how Obamites cherry pick 2 or 3 states that won't even go Democratic this election to prove their point?

[jackson_dem]

191. Read the OP. Jesse Jackson won Alaska and Vermont. How'd he do nationally with whites?

[Jersey Devil]

135. Are you a lawyer?

I know this is not really relevant to this thread and don't want to appear to be prying personal information from you that you may not want to disclose, but I am amazed that a few days ago you were an Obama supporter and making arguments on his behalf with every bit as much of energy and effort as you are making in this thread in opposition to Obama.

Then I started thinking - the only people I know who can do that - turn on a dime and argue the opposite position without even taking a break for a breath - are lawyers. If you are one then I can understand it and all will be alright with the cosmos.

[NJSecularist]

138. No, I am not.

But I consider being mistaken for a laywer a compliment. ;)

[Jersey Devil]

142. Well, so do I

That's why I asked because you haven't seemed to miss a beat after changing sides.

[JackORoses]

137. I sincerely hope that the rest of New Jersey is not as bigoted as you appear to be!

[Jersey Devil]

141. He lives in Ocean County - NJ's Wingnut Central

Even Al Gore couldn't win Ocean County

[Kool Kitty]

255. We're not.

And I don't think the OP is, at least I hope he's (she's?) not.

[CBGLuthier]

139. If anything is abysmal, it's the white racist democrats you mention.

[NJSecularist]

140. The only thing that is abysmal is your labeling of any white Democrats who vote for Hillary

as racist.

Do you want to win their votes in the election or not?

[CBGLuthier]

143. A good portion of them have mnade it clear they will not vote for him

And exactly where did I invoke the name of the senator from New York anyway.

Only a fucking fool would deny there are racists in the party.

[Thickasabrick]

152. If there are racists in the democratic party - then they are not

democrats. You can't be a democrat and be racist too. Racists are members of the republican party - who are in denial.

[CBGLuthier]

185. Dream on baby, hell they are even here on DU. Just open your eyes.

[Thickasabrick]

206. Yes, there may be some on DU - but again, they are not democrats.

It's like if a person said they were a christian but didn't believe in jesus.....they wouldn't really be a christian. See?

[JackORoses]

144. you are the one calling them racist by insinuating that they will only vote for the White Person

You think all those who voted for Hillary will vote by race over Party in the General?

Your dream of scuttling Obama by stoking racist fears is not going to come true.
But, by all means, keep making an ass of yourself.

[anonymous171]

164. DING DING DING! We have a winner! nt

[jackson_dem]

192. That makes no sense. They wouldn't vote for Dodd or Biden either

Obama has limited appeal beyond his ethnic group. We either accept that now are realize it the hard way on November 4.

[JackORoses]

198. Nobody accepts that Bullshit except desperate Hillarites

your suffering will soon be over.
Hillary will only be a bad memory in 2 weeks.

[jackson_dem]

211. What is your answer to why Richardson lost? Racism or limited appeal?

[JackORoses]

235. what is your answer to why Richardson supports Obama?

[ecdab]

240. Lack of money and poor speaking ability doomed Richardson.

Though I'm sure there is a subset of people that didn't like him because of his race.

[jackson_dem]

246. And Obama is the perfect candidate who only racists would oppose?

Maybe people don't vote for him because he has no experience, no record, no accomplishments, and little substance?

[ecdab]

248. Nope, but if they voted for Hillary on the issues they will vote for Obama.

If they voted for Hillary because she was their favorite Democrat in the race - they will vote for Obama.

If they voted for Hillary because they believe in womens rights - they will vote for Obama.

If they voted against Obama because of the color of his skin - they will not vote for Obama.

Most of the folks that voted for Hillary did so because they like Hillary - most of them will vote for Obama.

The segment of the Democrats that will not vote for Obama is small and certainly similar in size to the segment that will not vote for Hillary. The largest component of that segment will be the racist. the issue voters will certainly support either Hillary or Obama. The die hard Democrats will certainly support Obama (I think Hillary may have pissed a few of them off, but she'll still get most of their votes).

Your talking points about experience, record, accomplishment, and substance can be direct just as easily at Hillary - they are subjective standards. Such standards are often used in Primaries, but the base tends to be driven by differences on the issues in GE. The difference between the GE and the primaries seems to be completely lost on you and the OP. But Hillary doesn't really have a case to remain in the race if that difference is accounted for - so, needless to say - it is summarily ignored by Hillary and her supporters.

[NJSecularist]

249. False.

The segment of the Democrats that will not vote for Obama is small and certainly similar in size to the segment that will not vote for Hillary.

If Obama is nominated, he will bleed most white Democrats, Latinos, Asian Americans, the above 65 age group, etc.

[ecdab]

251. LOL - based on what? Your desire for Hillary to win? What?

The entire premise of this thread is that white Democrats will not care about the issues that face this country when the GE rolls around. I find that silly in the extreme.

[jackson_dem]

254. No, the argument--and it is legit--is that Obama will not win enough of these voters

He will win white Dems by an overwhelming majority. The problem is 70% or 75% of white Dems won't cut it. Any nominee worth a salt in modern times has to retain at least 90% of his party to win in a two candidate race. In theory you could win 70% of your party or even less and then offset it with 80% of indies and 20% of rethugs but a candidate who has this much trouble with his party will not ultimately have that kind of appeal among such voters. Democrats know Obama best and an increasing number of them dislike him. His coalition has steadily shrunk since the halycon pre-vetting days.

[ecdab]

265. You are using primary numbers to arbitrarily come up with your

% of white Democratic voters that will not support Obama. As I pointed out earlier - your entire argument collapses if you look at the difference between primaries and the GE.

I would also note that Obama's national popularity has increased when compared to Clinton over the course of this campaign.

[jackson_dem]

253. 24% of Democrats voted against Mondale

11% voted against Gore and 11% against Kerry. Most people don't vote on issues. That is how we wound up with Bush in the first place.

[hell-bent]

222. You guys even eat your own when they

question the Anointed One's elect ability. It is a typical cult phenomena. The cult is above all other members. Destroy the infidels.

[JackORoses]

236. enjoy this board while you can, soon this 'cult' will be all that's left

[hell-bent]

276. Listen Jack O--, you and your Obama friends can then stroke

each other for the entire fours years of the McCain administration on this site. Won't you be happy that you will not have any dissenters?

[smiley_glad_hands]

145. Race bait thread? eom

[leaningprog]

147. whispers and code words are paying off

I grew up in an all white Catholic neighborhood, but my father owned
a business in an all black neighborhood and I worked there after school.
I learned all about the code words you use when you used to say
n****r. I saw my aunts and uncles and many other white people do it
in Missouri, and all of them church going, hard working, and in most
ways fairly representative white folks. I remember being really proud
of Bill Clinton taking on the Southern code words of hate when he was
still in his right mind and running for president. I could almost burst
that he could be that honest about race and repudiate the practice that
was the Lee Atwater Republican mainstay in the Southern strategy.

I watched Bill Clinton and the Clinton campaign and it's surrogates
trot it out and run it with the throttle wide open this year. This
is what finishes them and their cronies for me for keeps.

Plagiarist. Yep he's a common thief everyone, this makes your fears
OK, in fact right, because it's not racist to vote down a thief.

Elitist, don't look at me, the Republican Activist from Wellesley,
who turned millions on the post White House cash in, look at him,
he has made money too, is his money LEGAL like all of mine?

Full of Hate and Anger - He looks decent enough, but look at some
of the people and organizations he has had contact with. Go ahead,
it's not racism, your fears of him being a rabid and hateful person
trying to destroy you aren't racist, they are the right questions you
should ask. Oh, and if he denies it, he is probably a liar as well,
so keep at it, I know we will.

The Clintons are selling the idea that of course they, but in general
any, serious Democratic Presidential needs to be a White Anglo Saxon
Protestant, who is a surrogate candidate Black, Jewish, Hispanic,
etc. portions of the Democratic party. In essence, unlike the prejudice
of the boomers parents, this is the more politically correct boomer
brand of it. All minorities will have a voice, but it will be via
a boomer WASP intercessor in the White House. This to me is the same
old shit, in a fancy, boomer, designer bag.

It takes a Village of expendable, sworn to absolute loyalty people to
raise a Clinton, and then they can run along until they're needed
again. But if they possess the skills and support to be a real
contender, well Bill and Hillary are just going to have to cut them
up and disfigure them a little. They should enjoy this, after all,
it's "the fun part".

[Thickasabrick]

149. I am so white...people think I'm a pillow....ok I might be a little

overweight too. I'm also old as dirt. I'm also a woman. I'm also southern.

I love Obama and hate Hillary's lying, corrupted guts.

Me and several other fat, white, southern women feel the same. Guess we don't reflect the polls, huh?

[Aloha Spirit]

157. Oh man, this post calls for a group hug

:grouphug:

[Thickasabrick]

214. Thank you - I love group hugs

[cali]

181. the OP is doing nothing but misrepresenting and cherry picking

and race baiting. I live in Vermont, second whitest state in the country. Hilly lost big here.

[Thickasabrick]

213. Hey Vermont! I agree - this has turned into a horribly racist

thread.

[libnnc]

238. Add me to the " woman pillow muffin top pushing 40 for Obama" list.

Oh, and I'm a lesbian too...:wow:

Those kind of stats totally fuck up the Hillbot myths about Obamaites, no?

:pals: :hi:

[Thickasabrick]

260. LOL......hello sister pillow!

We might be new demographic!

:toast:

[cjsmom44]

263. RE: I'M WITH YA GIRL

I LOVE OBAMA

I AM A NORTHERN LILY WHITE MIDDLE AGED BABY BOOMER OBAMA-MAMA

I ALSO DESPISE HILLARY'S LYING CORRUPTED GUTS

SHE IS A DISGRACE TO THE GENDER

I WOULD LIKE A FEMALE PRESIDENT

JUST NOT THIS ONE...

IT IS ABOUT HILLARY NOT HER GENDER

[Thickasabrick]

267. Welcome cjsmom44/Obama-Mama!

:hi:

I would love to see a female president too - maybe one day!

Obama rocks!!!

[Bensthename]

177. Is this is latest Hillary flier to Indiana and supers???

[quakerboy]

193. I am sorry

If Caucasian Democrats are only democratic voters as long as they don't have to support a multiracial candidate, then democrats deserve to lose every election. If they will defect to a obvious bad choice like McCain over Obama when he officially becomes the nominee, this country will gets what it deserves for doing so. And at least then Democrats won't have to take the hit for presiding over the economy as it continues to get jacked. In 10 years, those of us who are left can impeach the supreme court if we have to.

To be fair, the same stands true if Hillary were to somehow become the nominee and sexism were to sink her.

[knixphan]

202. hear hear

[XLIXLI]

212. GOOD LORD, Secularist!

You really push out the most divisive stuff for Democrats to read.

I wonder if Rush Limbaugh is really who you are, or some libertarian with white supremacist fantasies.

Black and other people of color vote, mostly for the Democrats, as much as you would like to leave them out.

Geesh

[hell-bent]

216. Excellent analysis, NJ Secularist!

But the Obama people will discount this fact as not being realistic. Hogwash! It's Obama or nothing!

[ProSense]

228. No, it isn't. It's hogwash!

Let's say half of Hillary's supporters decide to sit out the election. The other half will boost Obama's support between 24 and 35 pts.

Or is the suggestion that half of Hillary supporters will vote for McCain?

Conversely, can Hillary win the election with less than half (same formula) the black vote?

Hillary is losing miserably. Talk about her abysmal performance in the states that Obama won by 65 pts or more.

Unlike the Dem primary, the GE is open. Talk about Hillary's abysmal performance among independents.

Trying to equate the GE to the primary is BS.

[anonymous171]

219. Are you calling the good people of PA and OH racist?

Very nice.

[nemo137]

232. It's ok, they'll stuff it in the end and vote for Barack in the GE

I mean, that's what we're saying when they numbers go the other way, isn't it? :sarcasm:

[RBInMaine]

234. Another HillFAN who needs poli-sci 101. So here goes:

We have two UNIQUE candidates who by virtue of who they are, regardless of campaign messaging, in large measure have polarized the Dem electorate into different demographic breakdowns. Neither candidate is at fault for this. It is electoral demographic dynamics. Obama does very well with younger voters, new voters, males in general, upper educated, upper income, and AA's. Hillary does well with older voters, women, white working class, and Hispanics. In states like OH and PA with large older and white working class populations (as well as strong political machine help) she has done better. In states with large AA populations and more progressive and upscale voters (i.e. VA, WI, MN, MS) Obama has done better. It is about DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDES, not "inability to connect".
You could just as easily argue that Hillary can't win without up-scale progressives, men, and AA's.
Yes, each candidate should try to do more to reach the other's base, but it is a polarized primary electorate so therefore it goes state by state depending on population makeup differentials.

[brindis_desala]

237. Simple math for math challenged.

Obama will only lose 25% OR FEWER OF THAT DEMOGRAPHIC AND MORE THAN MAKE UP FOR IT WITH THE INDIES.
Read a poll for crying out loud and he hasn't even started on McLame. Then take a look at Hillary's negatives.

[wileedog]

239. Thank you. ITS THE INDEPENDENTS, STUPID!

[jackson_dem]

245. Here is a poll. His indie appeal is declining as he gets more known

No surprise there. That is political reality. It is a fairy tale that he would be stronger in November than he is now when he is undefined and the rethug machine hasn't savaged him for months.





If he loses 25% or fewer of that demographic he is a toast. Do people here realize how large a voting bloc whites are? If Obama loses 25% of white Dems he is toast.

[Drunken Irishman]

247. NJSecularist, I liked you, but obviously you went over the deep end.

No need to respond, because I'm pretty much leaving GDP and I don't really want to get into a debate with you. However, your post is not rooted in any fact, rather pointless speculation and after years of hearing this same bull with Bush, I'm done with debates where foundation is only built around speculation.

I can speculate all I want to spin any result into something favorable or unfavorable and it doesn't mean I'm right. And you are not right because in all the numbers you put up, you've not proved beyond a doubt there is any evidence to support your claim. And it's sad that you, of all people, would be conned into believing this obvious flawed notion. So I say enjoy your new found conversion and hopefully you don't apply this logic to life, or you're in serious trouble.

[angie_love]

250. Second, such a good person went to the dark side. oh well.

[FrenchieCat]

252. You are officially on ignore -

and so is Hillary forever more.

Signed - One of those millions of Black voters who will sit their asses at home if Hillary steal this primary just like Bush stole the 2000 election....cause it appears that like in the "good Ol' days", as a voter, I don't mean squat! Good, I can live with that; I'm so already used to it.

[jackson_dem]

256. We have seen this race card argument for Obama a lot since he lost on Tuedsay

If we accept its premises that means Clinton should be Obama's veep since not doing so would be giving the finger to 155 million. She will either win the popular vote or lose it narrowly (if she wins it the same arguments about it being "stolen" can be made, as they can if Obama wins by excluding Fl and MI). Aren't her voters, especially women, entitled to her being on the ticket using the very premises of the Ferraroesque Obama should win because he is black?

What about Latinos? Does this mean Richardson or Salaazar should be on the ticket of Clinton is denied? Or if Clinton gets the veep spot because she deserves it on behalf of 155 million women who won't be affected at all whether she or John Smith is veep does that mean the #3 slot should go to a Latino? Richardson for Secretary of State? What about Asians? Gary Locke for Secretary of Defense, #4? Oh, and Native Americans. Isn't it about time they get their share of the pie? #5? Attorney General? White males would need something too. Secretary of Education? Let's move beyond ethnic groups. How about GLBT people? Barney Frank for Secretary of HHS? Muslims? They will vote heavily for us too. Keith Ellison for Secetary of Labor? Don't you see how ridiculous the road Obama is leading us on is?

It is ironic the man whose candidacy is based to a large part on his self-proclaimed ability to unite is dividing the party in the worst possible way to prevent a nomination he should have secured 41 states ago, or at least two months ago, from slipping away.

[whistler162]

257. All I know is....

that I as a white Democrat and a guy I know, a white Republican, agree. Senator Obama will make a better President than Senator Clinton.

[graycem]

258. It says...

he’s running against another democrat, and they’re splitting the votes, not a hard concept. Your argument is quite flawed, on one hand you say if we go with Hillary, the blacks will fall in line, not to worry. And I counter that by saying the white vote will fall in line, not to worry. See how easy that is to do? I find it ridiculous that people will vote for John McCain, the war monger, the anti-abortionist, the anti-reason, the guy that loses on MANY senior issues, the guy that votes against the G.I. Bill, that person over Obama. If they do, they’re not democrats, they’re racists.

If Hillary is so electable, why can't she beat him fair and square instead of trying to put him in the same class as Jesse Jackson? If she really cares about the party, and Obama emerges the nominee, she should work her butt off along with everyone else in the party to get him elected instead of just conceding to the racist faction. And on the Republican vote, I’ve heard very different, I guess it depends on which article you believe. I’ve heard the Republicans are voting for Hillary because that’s who they want to run against. So hmm, who are most likely to be the Republican vote in our primaries? White males. Who’s winning among white males. Hillary you say?? But I thought they were voting for Obama to extend everything? So only the white people voting for Obama are the racist Republicans trying to trick us?? Seems to me the most logical thing to do in this case, since neither of us can prove otherwise, is to for once, not give a damn about the Republicans and how much control they claim to have choosing our candidate. Just like we have a tendency to worry about what they will smear our candidate with, like they wouldn’t make things up anyway. You can be aware of something without it guiding your every move.

The best thing to do is to vote for the person who wins the delegate count period. Otherwise whichever one of them gets the nomination will appear illegitimate and that will make a lot of people stay home, whether you like it or not. If she wants the nomination, she needs to win it, just like everybody else has had to do before her including her husband, instead of simply saying “he can’t win.” Every time she says that, it just leads people to say “she can’t win.” Where does that get us?

Just another small point, it’s no secret that she is one of the most polarizing political figures ever. My older white mother loved LOVED Bill Clinton but she never could stand Hillary because she is sarcastic and cynical. Hillary is no Bill Clinton. Hillary will guarantee the Republican win because their turnout will be higher than ours. If they weren’t motivated to vote FOR McCain, you can bet your farm that they will turn out to vote AGAINST her. And before you try to discount that, personality plays a huge role in this, and on that basis, Obama is no John Kerry, ironically, his personality is closer to Bill Clinton's. So, that is my opinion, which has as much weight as yours.

The elephant in the room is Hillary is losing, to an "unelectable" black man and her arrogance got called. She should've played this to win from the beginning instead of making up excuses why she was behind, on many occasions, and when that hasn't worked, trying to make a very good candidate appear illegitimate. She should've spent her money more wisely instead of way overpaying Penn out of loyalty instead of competence. Look what that did to the Bush administration. What she should be doing, now that she knows it is near impossible to get the nomination, is try to make amends, swallow her pride, show some decency and try making the case to Obama for the VP spot.

[barack the house]

261. No it's among white women who are the largest chunk of the dems, he has more votes in the repub vote

he can gain. Please don't skew that to be sexist that is what the stats say, who most are for hillary.

[cjsmom44]

264. RE: WHITE WOMEN

WELL I CAN TELL YOU THIS

I AM A LILY WHITE NORTHERN MIDDLE AGED BABY BOOMER OBAMA-MAMA

NEVER WAS FOR THE HILL'S

ALL THE WOMEN IN MAINE ARE PRIMARILY FOR OBAMA NOT HILLARY

[truthpusher]

269. who fucking cares.... I am getting very tired of the race game....

....if our so called 'white' democratic cant vote for a man because of the color of his skin... I would prefer their bigoted vote go to the other team.

[hokies4ever]

270. Double standard

For some reason it's okay to talk about Obama not winning the white vote (white working class, or whatever you want to call that voting block), yet nobody mentions that Hillary is not winning the black vote. Why is this? The explanations people are giving for this are absurd and even borderline racist in tone. "We all know the blacks are just voting for Obama because he's black, and they'll just come right over to Hillary if she's the nominee." Rather presumptuous indeed.

Hillary Clinton is making an undemocratic superdelegate argument. It basically boils down to her assertion that the white working class vote is vastly superior and much more important than the black vote. No wonder why Rep. Clyburn came public with his remarks.

Hillary Clinton might be able to win the presidency in 2008, but Barack Obama will win the presidency in 2008 and change the electoral map for decades to come. His announced 50 state general election plan will reap massive benefits for the Democratic Party helping them to win over mayorships, Congressional seats, and all sorts of political positions from the blue states to the red states. He's enabling the Democratic Party to wage full-scale war against the Republicans in all 50 states. A vote for Hillary is only a vote for Hillary. A vote for Obama is a vote for the Democratic Party to gain the upperhand in elections for decades to come, completely changing the face of politics in this nation.

[krkaufman]

272. Elected. Pledged. Delegate. Majority.

If *some* white voters have a problem voting along with the majority of their fellow Democrats when it comes to the general election, I'm OK with that. I'm not going to turn away from nominating the candidate who's won the support of the majority of the party because *some* white people might not vote for him/her. I'm pretty sure I'm a member of the Democratic Party, exactly because that's what I understood to be one of the key differentiators between the two parties.

If Obama loses the GE because of *some* white voters choosing not to vote for him, then they'll deserve the consequences of another Republican administration. It will perhaps provide them with the necessary object lesson that they've somehow managed to NOT learn from the last 7 1/2 years.

[DemVet]

277. kick

[Rosa Luxemburg]

278. You are pointing out that a Black man can't win and that is disgraceful