Gallup Daily: Obama and Clinton Tied at 48% to 47%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

PRINCETON, NJ -- The Democratic nomination race is now tied, with Barack Obama favored by 48% of national Democratic voters and Hillary Clinton by 47%

The latest results, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from April 22-24, include two days of interviews conducted entirely after Tuesday's Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Support for Clinton is significantly higher in these post-primary interviews than it was just prior to her Pennsylvania victory, clearly suggesting that Clinton's win there is the catalyst for her increased national support.

Obama's lead dwindled steadily all week, falling from a high of 10 percentage points in interviewing conducted in the three days just prior to the Pennsylvania primary. However, the percentage of Democrats supporting Obama has changed little (declining from 50% in April 19-21 polling to 48% today). Most of Clinton's increased support (from 40% to 47%) has come from previously undecided voters. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)

Both Clinton and Obama have experienced surges in support for their candidacies at various times since the start of the primary season -- several of them linked with primary wins and other high profile events -- only to see the race revert back to a near tie position. The last time Clinton moved into a significant lead over Obama was over a month ago, in mid-March, and that was only briefly. It remains to be seen whether Clinton will pull ahead of Obama in the next few days, or if she is able to sustain her current competitive positioning through and beyond the next round of primaries on May 6.

Clinton fares slightly better than Obama against John McCain in hypothetical matchups for the November election. Although both races are too close to call given the poll's margin of error, Clinton is running two points ahead of McCain, 47% to 45%, while Obama is running one point behind, 45% to 46%. -- Lydia Saad

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106822/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Clinton-Tied-48-47.aspx

[MadBadger]

1. Why does it seem like whoever is leading in the national vote, loses the state races?

[JackORoses]

2. only a Hillarite would call 48 to 47 a tie.

I guess if 9 is double digits, 48 might as well equal 47.

[MadBadger]

4. Thats the gallup headline.

[LSparkle]

5. LOL! You beat me to it!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. See Post Six

I MADE A FUCKING POST... I DON'T SEE A REASON TO DISRESPECT ME, ESPECIALLY FROM THE ANONYMITY OF A COMPUTER MODEM...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. That's The Headline Verbatim From Gallup

If you don't want to be civil to me let me know...

[Hippo_Tron]

13. In all fairness it's a statistical tie

And honestly I think the double digits thing is stupid. The media would still be spinning her victory whether or not it was actually 9 points or "double digits".

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I Cited The Headline Verbatim

But , yeah, it isn't a tie...Gallup should know better...

[Hippo_Tron]

22. It's a statistical tie

Statistics isn't an exact science. If it's within the margin of error, it's a statistical tie.

[Zynx]

15. Come on. You know statistically speaking 48 and 47 are the same in a poll.

There is no meaningful difference between the two.

[Stop Cornyn]

16. It's the same math by which a 9% win is "double digits"

[Radio_Lady]

28. Wasn't it 9-point-something and they rounded it up????

This is the kind of nit-picking crap that is destroying our party.

[Stop Cornyn]

30. 9.2% doesn't round up to double digits

http://www.news10.net/display_story.aspx?storyid=41097

[demwing]

32. Nit Picking Crap?

Lets make this easy for you....

Pretend you run a business, and you were hiring for a new mailroom clerk. in the interview, he assures you that he last earned $10 an hour, and has 1 year of experience.

You check his references, and find he only earned $9.40 an hour, and had only 10 months of experience. Would you consider it nit picking to deny him the job based on this dishonesty? I know how I would answer that question.

Lets then say that you also had an executive assistant, who you gave the company credit card and asked to buy a client a gift. There's $94 worth of credit available, and you specifically instruct your assitant to stay within the budget. She returns with a gift priced at $100. Is it nit picking to expect her to stay within the budget you outlined?

Is it nit picking to expect our candidates to be truthful, and hold them to a level of responsibility when they are not?

9.4 rounds to 9, not 10. Anything less than 10 points means single digits, not double digits. You may care, or not, but lets all be honest and not pretend that things are, when they are not.

[Radio_Lady]

38. Well, EXXXXXCCCCCUUUUUSSSSSSEEEEEE MMMMEEEE!

[BootinUp]

21. Quite to the contrary, its common to characterize close poll results that way. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. I Didn't Characterize Anything... Mr. Gallup (Sic) Did

PEACE

[BootinUp]

26. Roger! ... and out.

[anigbrowl]

25. Because it's inside the poll's margin of error. You should know better. /nt

[tekisui]

3. The gallup roller-coaster has made me nauseous.

up and down up and down.

[adoraz]

8. 48=/=47

I know, I know, MoE. Still though, its not a tie.

It seems every single time it gets this close, the same exact thing happens.

Clinton people get really excited, and 3 days later Obama has a 10 point lead again.

I would wait before getting excited.

[Uben]

9. And look!

Obama can't beat McCain!

[Patsy Stone]

10. Why does this matter anymore?

I'd like to see a Gallup of the remaining states -- at least that would be somewhat relevant.

On edit: This was not directed at the OP, just a general rhetorical question and thought.

[Radio_Lady]

29. Agree completely with you, Patsy. The polls make me nauseated.

:puke:

[Patsy Stone]

33. Just like the stock market

if you watch it every day, you'll go nuts.

[Radio_Lady]

34. Yeah, that too. Husband Audio Al periodically asks me if I want to see the stocks on....

the spreadsheet he uses every day.

Damned if I don't say "NO" unless he insists.

Every day, I assess my little budget and try to make ends meet. Then I go to the gym and try to cut down at least my end. I didn't get there today. So shoot me.

I just had a little glass of "creme de menthe" -- my tummy is aching and I'm going to take a nap.

Blessed be,

Radio Lady

[GodlessBiker]

11. I wonder what people will think when they are tied 55% - 45%.

[AtomicKitten]

12. Rounding up again?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. See Post Six

~

[Cali_Democrat]

18. First of all, it's not a tie. Secondly....

This poll is good for Obama because his support stayed at 48%. look for Hillary to go down from 47% in the next few days. Gallup is the only poll that shows a post PA bump. If there is an actual trend, which I doubt, it will be short-lived for Hillary. She will be back to 42% support in no time.

[book_worm]

19. She will get a boost from PA, though not reflected in Rasmussen daily numbers as yet

but once that bounce fades Obama will take the lead again.

[BootinUp]

20. Not unexpected.

Go Mama. Democrats are beginning to see the light.

[GarbagemanLB]

23. Yeah? Look at the last time they were 'tied' on that graph, and then look at what happened.

[Robbins]

27. Reminder

Hillary has often seen a bumb when sometime happens to Obama and then he rebounds.The same will
happen here.

[rodeodance]

31. ------- Hillary the comback gal~~~~

[Joe the Revelator]

39. ------Hillary, The gal who can't win no matter what happens~~~~

[Bread and Circus]

35. Yes, what would you expect when the corporate media is fluffling Hillary nonstop...

[MarjorieG]

36. Part of the media manipulation, maybe? MSM shouting comeback.

Short term memory and bringing peace to Irealnd, seven faces of Hillary, I don't buy it.

Really wish there'd be an explanation of what Rendell's machine might have done/did in suppressing the vote. All unverifiable machines, which never reassures. But same 2004 less allocation of machines, confusion.

[johnnydrama]

37. this daily poll stuff is baloney

Does anybody believe that Obama went from 11 to 7 to 3 to -1 to 2 to 7 to 10 to 8 to 5 to 1.

And that any of that means anything?

[Barack_America]

40. Not if you round that 1% up to 10%.

What? Why not? ;)

[GoesTo11]

41. Tied - except for that matter of Obama's 150 or so delegate lead.

Nice way to create a tight race where there isn't one.