Indiana: Clinton 50%, Obama 45% (ARG)

[mickeyraul]

American Research Group, who was more accurate than Rasmussen, PPP and Mason Dixon in Pennsylvania, has Clinton up by 5% in Indiana:

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

[peoli]

1. omg noooooooooooooooooooo!

[MadBadger]

2. They were only more accurate than PPP

And you can show me that graph all day, but simple mathematics would prove it wrong.

[jackson_dem]

3. What's wrong? I thought you became a ARG fan?

[MadBadger]

5. I think ARG has gotten a raw deal, but that graph is wrong

The final was 9.2. The final ARG was 16. 5 points is closer than 16 is and that is what Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon had.

[rodeodance]

53. hnmnf is the poster who predicted Obama would win by a half point in PA!!

[mickeyraul]

8. They were also more accurate than rasmussen

Their last poll had Clinton up by 13%, and the actual margin was 9.2%. Rasmussen's last poll had her up by 5%. Therefore, ARG was closer to the actual result.
ARG was off by 3.8 while Rasmussen was off by 4.2%.

[MadBadger]

11. On April 20-21, they had Hillary up 56-40

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/padem8-707.html

[Traction311]

How so?

Isn't the state over 90% white? Hasn't she been leading nationally by whites by nearly 20%?

[Traction311]

49. How so?

Isn't the state over 90% white? Hasn't she been leading nationally by whites by nearly 20%?

[Tribetime]

4. Then if Clinton doesn't win by 5% she must drop out

[jackson_dem]

6. Says who? If the Dem front runner can't win in neighorbing IN what does that say?

Chicago has great influence on 1/5-1/3 of the state. Yet he can't win? Maybe he should spend $3 million a week on ads alone this time instead of $2 million a week on ads.

[MindMatter]

24. It says that he's not trying to destroy his opponent

He is building the foundation for a successful campaign against McCain, including building the registrations to support all teh down-ticket Democrats in all 50 states.

He could win every one of these close contests if he wanted to take the down and dirty approach that Clinton has chosen. But he already has the nomination virtually locked up, so he's playing the equivalent of football's "prevent defense", while getting prepared for the real battle.

This is a man who has demonstrated at every step of the way he has the vision to think far in advance and make the right strategic moves. He's not spending a great deal of his war chest, for example, because it isn't necessary. Instead of draining his bank account to brutalize Clinton, he's keeping his $50,000,000 of powder dry, so to speak.

Sorry you don't get the strategic picture, but there it is.

[jackson_dem]

28. He spent $16 million on travel and ads alone in PA to defeat a primary candidate who has "lost"

That means no sense. He did go negative at the end--and it hurt him in PA.

[MindMatter]

43. He cut a 25-point deficit to 9%, and that sealed the deal for him

He will finish April with more money in the bank than he started April with, I predict.

I didn't see any negative ads. I didn't see him questioning Clinton patriotism, faith, upbringing or anything else. He did question whether she was really a staunch advocate for NRA. I guess he just couldn't help himself on that one.

[Beacool]

29. If you believe that, you must not have been in PA.

He outspent her 3 to 1 in most markets and he still couldn't close the deal.

[ima_sinnic]

31. do all hillary supporters use TRITE phrases like "couldn't close the deal"?

he took away more than half of her "lead." He knocked her back from 20% to less than 10%.

He has won far more states than she has, more popular votes, and more pledged delegates. She doesn't have a chance of winning, and her campaign is bankrupt, because she can't manage a budget. But maintain your delusion that PA was somehow "remarkable" or a big deal--a state she was expected to win anyway, by a lot more than she really did--as you worship a woman who has no class at all, who is a desperate and pathetic figure who is our own party's version of Katherine Harris. Nobody is fooled by that crap. Her national unfavorable rating is 55%, so more than half of the country can't stand the lying sack of shit.

[Beacool]

33. After the crap you wrote, you don't deserve a civilized response. n/t

[Moochy]

35. Just the stupid ones

Clever Catch Phrases is all they've got.

[chimpymustgo]

46. Pot, meet Kettle. This from the campaign of empty rhetoric!!!

:rofl:

[Moochy]

52. Hey Chimpy

I hope we are both rofling at the republicans soon.

[MindMatter]

45. What you don't understand is that he DID close the deal

She needed a 25-point victory in PA to have a numeric chance to close his gap down the stretch. PA was the last gasp. There simply aren't enough delegates left for her to get it done.

He accomplished what he needed to do in PA. She did not accomplish what she HAD to do. He won. Scoreboard.

[Jawja]

50. and what does it say

that a former First Lady with the big machine and all the money goes into Super Tuesday as the Front Runner and the Presumptive Nominee doesn't close the deal?

What does it say when she loses Virginia, Maryland, Wisconsin and Washington as part of an 11 straight contest blowout for her opponent?

Hillary supporters are trying to spin this race as if it STARTED with Ohio and Texas (who delivered more delegates to Obama than Clinton) when it was over for HER going into Ohio and Texas.

What does it say when a nominee for the DEMOCRATIC nomination has to rely on the GOP noise machine to help her with this spin? Especially the ridiculous notion that Ohio and Texas are automatic wins for the Democratic Party in the GE if Hillary is the nominee. :eyes:

She cannot catch him in pledged delegates and Obama is fast catching up to her in Super Delegates.

Can SHE win the nomination outright by winning Indiana by a few points?? NO! That's the reality.

We will NOT let the GOP steal it from us again with their campaign of character assassination and corporate crony big media SPIN to justify giving the nomination to the candidate who TRAILS in delegates won over the contest. This will just guarantee a destroyed Democratic Party against a TERRIBLE GOP candidate who will win as a result.

Not this time.

[Alexander]

59. If he can win Indiana and North Carolina, I see Hillary withdrawing soon.

[bluetrain]

18. You seem really insecure in your contestant's ability to win a nomination with

any competition. A race is never legitimately won by the default of everyone else quitting. It's laughable, undemocratic and destructive to the party to even suggest such a thing.

[Tribetime]

22. No, it's just my way of saying how ridiculous polls are. IMO

She has every right to stay in as long as she wants to. I fully expect her to.

[and-justice-for-all]

7. I live in Indiana...I do hope that poll is wrong...Fuck me!

OBAMA 08!!

[MindMatter]

26. It doesn't matter. It really doesn't matter.

+5%, -5% makes no difference. It will only amount to a difference of a small handful of delegates. At this late stage of the campaign, "momentum" doesn't mean anything. Momentum was important in IA, NH, and Super Tuesday when Obama rattled off that long string of victories.

The end game is clear. Unless Clinton can pull off 70/30 victories from here on out, she cannot win the delegate race. And as soon as she is mathematically eliminated from winning the delegate rage, 100 superdelegates will come out for Obama and that is the end of the story.

He knows that so he has already turned the corner to begin addressing McCain, because that is the only battle that matters now. If that means that Clinton gains a few % here and there, it just doesn't matter.

[adoraz]

9. they were 7% off

in PA. they gave Clinton a 7% advantage over what the final was.

If you go by that, Obama is ahead according to ARG. :)

[mickeyraul]

14. OH

I see.

[JackORoses]

10. the last ARG had Clinton up 9

Gobama!!!

[bluestateguy]

12. I wish ARG would just go away

They are a disgrace. And totally shameless.

[woolldog]

13. ARG isn't a real pollster. Disregard.

[MercutioATC]

15. That's EXACTLY my prediction...and I called PA for Clinton by 9

If this actually happens and Obama wins NC by 13, I'm hiring myself out as an expert...


...hell, no...I'm declaring myself a prophet.

[KittyWampus]

19. after which you can then tell me where to meet a decent single guy over 40

kthanxbai :)

[MercutioATC]

20. I'm 5 months over 40.

...but I'm not sure how dating and the whole "prophet" thing works...

[Kittycat]

16. ...

[msallied]

25. I loooooove your sig graphic!

[PresidentObama]

17. ARG isn't reliable. Whether Clinton or Obama is ahead, they aren't.

I've said the same thing when Obama was ahead in ARG polls.

[Frank Booth]

21. I support Obama, but I think Hillary will win Indiana. 5% seems about right.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

23. I don't know... I think it's going to be close ~ 3% either way

[Alii]

27. RCP...Obama by 3

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html

RCP was three off in the PA primary, e.g., if this holds true it's either a tie or Obama up by 6.

So, I shall go out on a limb...Obama by 9.2. Logical? No, but...psychic. However, a one vote lead would suffice.

Oh, and Obama by 19.2 in North Carolina.

[davidpdx]

34. Interesting enough RCP avg was off by 3 in Ohio as well

But it's interesting that the last 4 polls on RCP have Obama up. So do most of the polls in April for Pollster as well.

Here's the graphic that should make Clinton supporters squirm though:

[Alii]

38. In re the PA RCP average...

The Newsweek poll did skew the mean, e.g., wasn't really that far off. The mode in this instance was almost spot on. Oops, just re-checked...scratch Newsweek.

However, in the Indiana poll...no Newsweek.

Luck!

[datopbanana]

30. at least it shows him gaining

[Alii]

37. Gaining?

Leading by 3.6.

[datopbanana]

39. I don't mean the avg of all polls. Im just talking about this poll

It had him down 9 and now down 5.

[Butch350]

32. How About the Error...

Margin of 5% - doesn't that put them about even steven?

[PBS Poll-435]

36. Nah..

More like Clinton 55, Obama 40.

}(

[Alii]

40. Psychic or overly optimistic?

:rofl:

I know that you know that it's over...you're just funnin'.

[Alii]

41. MOE varies with different pollsters...

I prefer an average of reliable pollsters. ARG, in general, is not considered one of the more reliable.

The IndyStar, Indiana's own, has Obama up by 3 http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080425/NEWS0502/804250437. But a lot of undecideds.

I spent some time in Illinois and Indiana while in the U.S. Airforce...miss the fireflies. And, Cherry St. in Terre Haute.

[B Calm]

42. Indiana republicans will cross over and vote for Hillary. They are

doing their part with the distruction of democratic party. I work with a bunch of Indiana neocons and they all plan to vote for Hillary. It's time for her to drop out NOW!

[Freedom Train]

47. Drop out right after a resounding victory in Pennsylvania?

I don't think that's very likely.

[B Calm]

57. YES! She should have dropped out months ago!

[rodeodance]

54. its the Obama camp who are signing up Repug "dems for the Day"!!

[B Calm]

58. and that's great. It's different with Hillary. Right wingers are voting

for her for a much different reason and if you talked to a few of them you would find out too why they are crossing over!

[tekisui]

44. RCP average of Polls for the past 10 days has Obama +3.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html

[DemGa]

48. This is encouraging nt

[JoFerret]

51. My advice

Stop following the polls.(They will drive you nuts, waste your time and break your heart)
instead: Do something to support your candidate.

[Zachstar]

56. Amen! Lets assume Clinton is winning by 10 and work like we want that to be a win!

Phonebank! Phonebank! Phonebank!!

[Zachstar]

55. Ok lets stop bickering over polls and take this one as a sign that we need to work harder

There is still LOTS of phonebanking to do Obama supporters!!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/

[Raffi Ella]

60. !

:dem: