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Edited on Sun Apr-27-08 03:50 AM by jackson_dem
What race was Jimmy Carter in 1980 when he lost a string of primaries at the end like Obama is now doing, including Pennsylvania? What race was Walter Mondale when Gary Hart surged? What race was Gerald Ford when he lost a string of primaries at the end like Obama is now doing? What about McGovern? Deja vu? -snip- 1968 loser Humphrey also won some contests, and both he and Wallace were neck-and-neck with McGovern for total votes in the primaries at the end. But the activist, fervently anti-war supporters of McGovern managed to add up enough delegates in a combination of primary and caucus states to give him the nomination. The tactics of primaries and caucuses were in a stage of transition; no longer could party leaders who won a few states (or even just their home state as a 'favorite son') use their block of delegates to influence the nomination in the 'smoke-filled rooms' of a convention. Here a candidate with a well-organized force of zealots had beaten the system in an example of what is now the normal strategy: before 1972, entering and winning a few select primaries was merely a demonstration of support, because victory in the primaries would not guarantee a win at the convention and many candidates avoided potentially embarassing head-to-head showdowns for votes; after 1972, no candidate would be able to win the nomination without winning enough votes nationwide to defeat all challengers. Exciting, up-in-the-air conventions were a thing of the past. Of course the same radical enthusiasm which propelled McGovern caused the Democrats to consider guaranteed incomes and other socialist measures that alienated the 'silent' mainstream of the country, and McGovern would also have some shocking running-mate troubles; he would be humiliated like no loser had been humiliated before--or at least not since 1936 when Republican candidate Landon won 8 electoral votes against FDR.http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/Dem1972.html1984 February 20: Iowa February 28: New Hampshire March 6: Vermont March 13: Alabama (Democrats), Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, plus caucuses in Nevada, Oklahoma, Washington (Mixed results: Mondale in the South, Hart in New England, Florida, and the West; Glenn eliminated) March 18: Puerto Rico (Mondale wins) March 20: Illinois March 27: Connecticut (Democrats) April 3: New York (Big win for Mondale over Hart), Wisconsin (primary--this one won by Hart) April 10: Pennsylvania (Another important Mondale win) May 1: DC, Tennessee May 5: Louisiana, Texas (Republicans) May 8:Latter two were narrow Hart wins but not enough to stop Mondale) May 15: Nebraska, Oregon, Idaho June 5: California, New Jersey, Montana, New Mexico, South Dakota (Democrats), West Virginia (Hart’s win in California was not enough to prevent Mondale going over the top) June 12: North Dakota
http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/Dem1984.html
Hart screwed himself by making "bittergate" type remarks about NJ. He tanked in NJ and lost the state. Had he won he may have won the nomination. He needed both California and New Jersey to have a shot and was on his way to getting them.
1980
-snip-
In 1980, the incumbent Carter was weakened by economic and international problems, and Teddy Kennedy saw an opportunity to unseat him from within the party. However, Carter defeated Kennedy in the early contests, and Teddy's campaign sank like a car plummeting off a bridge. In part this was due to initial rallying around the president in a time of crisis; however, as the nation's inability to change either its international or economic situations was revealed, Carter lost support. In some later contests Kennedy had a resurgence and won a lot of delegates in large states like New York and California, but this was not enough to keep Carter from winning a majority of the delegates. Nationally, however, Carter was dropping rapidly--the endless counting of days the Iranians held our hostages, the declining economy, and the apparent weakness of our country (a botched hostage rescue attempt didn't help this, nor did the meek response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which set off a series of nasty events that would eventually bite both superpowers in the ass) all gave Reagan's message a lot of power. Reagan, of course, had gained respect by defending the nation in his years of service on the battlefields of Hollywood. The national election, at first expected to be close, was a surprising landslide for the actor over the peanut farmer.*
Schedule of 1980 primaries from Congressional Quarterly’s Presidential Elections, 1789-1996. Note shift of many states’ primaries to earlier dates compared to 1976 and especially 1972. The number of primaries as opposed to caucuses and other delegate-selection methods has also increased dramatically.
January 21: Iowa February 17: Puerto Rico (Carter win) February 26: New Hampshire March 4: Massachusetts, Vermont March 8: South Carolina (Republicans) March 11: Alabama, Florida, Georgia March 18: Illinois March 25: Connecticut, New York (Democrats) April 1: Kansas, Wisconsin April 5: Louisiana April 22: Pennsylvania but Carter is dominating most states] May 3: Texas May 6: DC, Indiana, North Carolina, Tennessee May 13: Maryland, Nebraska May 20: Michigan , Oregon May 27: Arkansas (Democrats), Idaho, Kentucky, Nevada June 3: California, New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Dakota, West Virginia, Mississippi (Republicans) <[b>several Kennedy wins but not enough to take nomination away from incumbent]
http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/Dem1980.html
1976
Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan fought it out in the most prolonged, evenly-matched primary-and-caucus race in recent Republican Party history. Ford won a series of early contests until Reagan managed a pivotal win in North Carolina, after which the struggle was back-and-forth. Reagan's strength is apparent in the conservative south and the west, including his base in California. Ford, although not winning a majority of the caucus delegates (he was slightly short of a lock even at the time of the convention, marking the last time in history a party convention might matter), managed to win enough of the big primaries in the midwest and east to hold onto the nomination. (According to the Dave Barry analysis, Ford finally won by "a margin of four brain cells to three"). This year was a turning point for the Republican party, as the last time the moderate wing had enough clout to ward off a challenge by the united forces of the pro-big business lobby and the fundamentalists (whose ranks were being swelled as the former segregationists abandoned the Democratic party, which they felt had abandoned them under the control of Northern social liberals). Even so, Ford's appointed VP, Rockefeller (one of the endangered breed of liberal Republicans--yes, they did exist, just like the conservative Democrats!) had been replaced by Dole as veep candidate. After his nomination, Ford had an uphill battle against Carter, which he almost managed to pull off (1976 was the closest presidential election until 2000's mixed decision). However, Ford would lose the election and go down in history known mainly for pardoning disgraced fellow Republican Richard Nixon and for providing fodder for Chevy Chase's pratfall skits.
Schedule of 1976 primaries from Congressional Quarterly’s Presidential Elections, 1789-1996
Iowa straw poll February 24: New Hampshire March 2: Massachusetts, Vermont March 9: Florida March 16: Illinois March 23: North Carolina <[u>First Reagan primary win] April 6: Wisconsin April 27: Pennsylvania May 4: DC (Democrats), Georgia, Indiana May 11: Nebraska, West Virginia May 18: Maryland, Michigan May 25: Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Nevada, Oregon, Tennessee June 1: Montana, Rhode Island, South Dakota June 8: California, New Jersey, Ohio
http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/Rep1976.html
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