Hillary 's bankrupt case to Super Delegates

[cali]

She doesn't have one. That's why her argument consists of he can't win. What does she have? She started out with every advantage and blew it. She had the money, the impressive roster of SD endorsements and a popular ex-President as her husband. Her campaign has gone through one unneccessary dram after another; Penn, Solis Doyle, not paying debts, spending money she doesn't have. SDs undoubtedly look at the campaign train wreck and surmise that it comes up short.

She says only she can win, but she's losing the primary she should have taken in a walk. Not very reassuring. Her negative campaigning has not made SDs happy and they've said so. Bill's antics remind people of what it would be like to have him back in the White House, and SDs are people.

Obama can say that he's overcome long odds to become the leader, that he's run a dynamic campaign and a tight ship. He can say that he's brought in lots of new voters and has largely refrained from going after hill. He can say that just as he had a long term strategy to win the primary, he has a long term strategy to win the General Election. He can point to his excellent management of money and his fund raising prowess.

Hillary can and does say that he can't win white working class voters, but that's not even wholly true. And what is she really saying when she says this? She's saying white voters won't vote for a black man.

And SDs know that they can't afford to elevate someone with substantially fewer pledged delegates to be the nominee. They understand that if they lose just 15 or 20% of the black vote they'll condemn the party for generations. We simply can't win without the black vote. McCain is already making a case to black voters just in case hillary gets it. What do you think he was doing in NOLA and Selma.

Hillary's bankrupt case to the SDs is the longest of long shots.

[tekisui]

1. The SD's are no fools.

The only reason they've not flooded to Obama is out of respect for Hillary to control her exit.

It is up to Hillary as to when she will accept her loss.

[cali]

3. actually, I think it's out of respect for her supporters.

[tekisui]

5. You are right.

They don't want to step on their toes, and have the appearance of forcing out their candidate of choice.

[Pisces]

2. They need to set the tone and stampede to Obama.

[cali]

4. not yet. they need to wait until

the process is over so as not to further piss off her supporters.

[TheDoorbellRang]

17. Ah, but note they haven't been waiting

Early in April I theorized that the SD's would start endorsing Obama by one's and two's -- staying under the radar as the focus stayed on the primary races. I predicted that by Oregon/Kentucky, or by Montana/South Dakota at the latest, he will have enough super delegates in his column so that it is a primary race that is seen to put him over the top, and not the super delegates. Here's what's been happening with super delegates since January:

..........HC....BO......HC Lead..HC%
1/13...165....69..........96......71%
1/20...171....77..........94......69%
1/27...184....88..........96......68%
2/3....198...105..........93......65%
2/10...224...127..........97......64%
2/17...238...160.5.......77.5....60%
2/24...238...174..........64......58%
3/2.....240...193..........47......55%
3/9.....244...205..........39......54%
3/16...244...208..........36......54%
3/23...246...210..........36......54%
3/30...246...212..........34......54%
4/6.....245...221..........24......53%
4/13...249...223..........26......53%
4/20...255...230..........25......53%
4/27...257...235..........22......52%

There are only 302 undeclared super delegates left. If another 100 endorse for Obama between now and the end of May, he's over the top.

Then add to the mix the fundraising arrangement the Obama camp made with the DNC earlier this week. Do you think the DNC would rather hitch their wagon to the guy whose donors send money with no strings attached and who has only one or two fundraisers scheduled between now and June, or with the gal with 17 fundraisers scheduled whose big money donors tell Pelosi how it's gonna be if she wants their money or whose big donors demand their money back because FL and MI votes haven't counted? I'd guess we'll start seeing more DNC people weighing in soon.

They're just proceeding, quietly and under the radar, to shut Ms. Hillary down -- one and two at a time. }(

[williesgirl]

6. But while they sit back & wait, millions of $s are being poured into primary vs GE and HRC's trashin

BO. They need to endorse someone and NOW. rec'd

[cali]

8. If they endorse now they'll appear to be shuttling hill off the board

and piss off her supporters even more than they're pissed off.

[Window]

11. I don't see it will make much of a difference, they are and will continue to be pissed off.

No matter when Sen. Obama wins the nomination, they will be pissed big time.

[Liberal Gramma]

13. I think you've got something there

In the same way that the Iraq war will devolve into bloody civil war whether we leave now or in ten years, Hillary's supporters will be pissed off whether she leaves now, with some dignity, or later, when it's patently clear that she cannot win the nomination.

[Window]

16. Yes, just postponing the inevitable.

[ayak9]

7. When Hillary says Obama can't win...

Hillary reportedly told Bill Richardson when he called her to say he was endorsing Obama: "He can't win, Bill. He can't win."

When Hillary says Obama can't win, she isn't saying that Obama can't beat McCrazy -What she really means is that If this interloper somehow defeats her for the nomination and becomes president, it'll screw up her well-laid plans for restoration. She'll miss her window - she'd be too old in 2016. All that foreign money Bill would get in the future would likely dry up if Billary fails to attain the reins of power.

Their sense of entitlement seems to suggest that the Clintons believe that we are like some third world banana republic. Uday and Qusay were going to take over from Saddam. Which one does Hillary think she is - Uday or Qusay?Who do these people think they are? What do they think they're doing to the party, and to the country.

God save the Queen? Contrary to what the Clintons might think, this isn't a monarchy.

[Frank Booth]

9. You nailed it. She has no plan or chance of winning the general election.

All she can do is try to tear down the rightful nominee and hope that the SDs give her the nomination. I hope they're not that stupid.

[suston96]

10. Pledged delegates mostly from red states? Yeah, that translates into certain electability.....

Suoerdelegates will be and had better be looking at electability. Ask Howard Dean.

[cali]

12. lol. the last refuge of desperate hillbots

VA, MD, VT, IL, DE, CT, ME, MN, Wi. Please don't keep going with that dishonest crap.

SDs will not take the nomination from Obama. He has the most pledged delegates by 150 or so the greater share of the popular vote. To do so would be to destroy the party for years to come. And I'd say the same damn thing if hilly was in the lead. And I actually know more about Howard Dean than you possibly could. He's been consistent all along, and though he's been scrupulously fair to the Clinton camp, despite the disgusting way they've long treated him, my strong hunch is he favors Obama.

And they're both electable. hilly with her ceiling of support and her the sky's the limit unfavorables is, imo, the less electable.

[suston96]

14. You know more about Howard Dean......?

Try this: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5703786

[cali]

15. exact;ly the same thing he's been saying all along.

And yeah, Dean was my guv for 11 years. Met him several times, and certainly had the opportunity to see how he works.