The Facts
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/2008/02/will_puerto_rico_decide_everyt.htmlBoth Brooks and Barone are wrong. Puerto Ricans will vote according to much the same proportional representation rules that govern Democratic party primaries and caucuses in the 50 states. The notion of Puerto Rico being a "winner-take-all" jurisdiction stems from previous presidential primary contests, which were pretty much over by the time the Puerto Ricans got to vote. John Kerry swept Puerto Rico in 2004 just as Al Gore triumphed in 2000 because they were the only candidates left in the race, and the party bosses could manipulate the caucus process.
This time will be very different, according to several Puerto Rican Democratic leaders I contacted earlier today by phone. At present, Puerto Rico is scheduled to hold a caucus--not a primary--on June 7. If the race is still competitive, participation is likely to be very high, and there is no way that one candidate will sweep all the delegates.
"Both the candidates have supporters on the island," said Eliseo Roques, vice-chair of the Democratic National Committee's Hispanic Caucus, and a prominent Puerto Rican politician who is neutral in the race. "You will see a closely contested race."
The chairman of the Puerto Rican Democratic Party, Roberto Prats, told me that any registered Puerto Rican voter over the age of 18 who self-identifies with the Democratic party (i.e. does not take part in a Republican election) will be eligible to caucus. Like Roques, he expects excitement to be at fever pitch if the race is still going on, and hundreds of thousands of voters to turn out. Traditionally, he says, Puerto Rico has chosen to hold caucuses because they are "less expensive" than a primary, but the island may switch to a primary this time round, if the race is still competitive.