On May 20, Barack Obama will seal the deal.

[Buzz Clik]

He may clinch earlier, but it will not be one day later. This is based on an analysis that gives Clinton every possible delegate within even the most extreme logic.

Obama needs 136 elected delegates to seal the deal based on the Pelosi number (Pelosi cuts loose her Supers when one candidate reaches 50% plus on elected delegate).

On May 3, Guam has their primary with 4 delegate at stake. We'll give them all to Hillary.

On May 6, Indiana and North Carolina will put a total of 187 elected delegates in play. I'm going to give Clinton 50% plus one delegate that day, or Obama gets 50% minus 1 for a total of 93.

On May 13, West Virginia (the whitest state in the Union) will go overwhelmingly for Clinton. I give Obama 25% or only 7 of the 28 elected delegates in play

On May 20, Kentucky will likewise crash heavily for Clinton. I give Obama 25% or 13 of the elected delegates.

Also on May 20 will be Oregon with 52 elected delegates. Let's be real generous and give Clinton 50% and Obama 50% or 26 elected delegates:


Summarizing Obama's delegates by date:
May 3 0
May 6 93
May 13 7
May 20 39
TOTAL: 139

Game over.

Plan your parties, folks. This ends on May 20.

[slick8790]

1. You forgot Guam. Likely 2-2 split. n/t

[Buzz Clik]

8. Yes, I did. I'll make the necessary change.

[nankerphelge]

2. That's the way it's gotta be.

I cannot support HRC in the general election.

[cloudythescribbler]

3. my best guess is that Hillary quits on or about May 7

should we have a betting pool? With the half the money going to the dem nominee and the other half as a prize (divided if necessary among winners)

or is that even legal on DU?

It's a great way for people to put their money where their punditry is.

[cliffordu]

4. She CANT quit. They already PAID to have the goalposts moved.

Cash. Upfront.

[MH1]

39. That must be the only vendor they're paying cash, upfront.

[truebrit71]

46. I agree...the fund-raising that she's doing now is to cover her debt...

...even if she squeaks out an IN win she will leave the race...


Best case scenario for the Dems? Obama wins both NC and IN on the 6th and HRC leaves the race...

[LakeSamish706]

5. I'm not sure that the Clinton's will ever let this be over... I think they will..

keep on keeping on until the Convention... Just my guess from what I have seen.

[Buzz Clik]

6. Hillary is in this for herself, no doubt. She will be blind to the inevitability.

However, if someone more powerful than her gets her attention and suggests that more is at stake than her personal, short-term goal (i.e., the end of her political career), then she might respond.

Perhaps not.

[leeroysphitz]

37. I think that has been tried already. n/t

[backscatter712]

7. It WILL be over on May 20th.

There's no way Hillary can win it, and on May 20th or the immediate aftermath, Obama will get his 2024th delegate.

[Buzz Clik]

9. Yes, indeed. The Super and pledged count will put him over the top on that day.

[Ysabel]

35. yes the math works...

[Jack Rabbit]

10. Let's start a pool

May 6/Obama.

[Buzz Clik]

11. Is that when Obama gets the majority of the elected delegates or the 2025 number?

I think we should start a pool. An entire thread should be dedicated to it.

[ORDem]

12. YEP! And if I may say so... Oregon is going to take the credit!! :^)

:bounce:

[KoKo]

13. When does Puerto Rico vote? Polls say it will break heavily for Hillary.

:shrug:

[wndycty]

15. The OP's assumption is that it would be too little too late

:kick:

[AZ Criminal JD]

14. You left out Puerto Rico. 63 delegates.

Pelosi doesn't control the supers. She can't "release" them. Sorry it goes on. Count every vote.

[Buzz Clik]

16. Puerto Rico is June 1 with 55 pledged delegates.

It won't matter.

If it goes on, then Hillary's only goal is to destroy Obama so that she can steal the nomination. If that happens, the consequences are obvious.

[Arugula Latte]

17. Oregon is Obama country. I will vote for him as soon as my ballot comes.

I can't wait! If bumper stickers and signs are any indication, in Multnomah County (vote-rich Portland area) Obama will crush the lying DLC pro-IWR candidate Hillary Clinton.

[Buzz Clik]

18. Good for you!

We have 7 voters in our household -- all Obama supporters.

[Pisces]

19. May 20th can't come soon enough. Puerto Rico can not vote in the GE.

[AZ Criminal JD]

23. They vote at the Democratic Convention. Obama agreed to those rules.

Count every vote.

[Buzz Clik]

26. Yeah. We know.

You're intentionally missing the point.

[grantcart]

20. Over by Oregon

[Buzz Clik]

21. I feel like a kid the day after Thanksgiving -- Christmas couldn't possibly come soon enough.

[Bensthename]

22. Look for her to bring her six shooter with her that day, and duck under a table.

[cali]

24. Vermont, NH and Maine are all whiter than WV

just to keep things accurate.

[Buzz Clik]

25. and AZ, ID, HI, IA, MT, NM, ND, OR, SD, UT, WY.

Just to keep things accurate.

[cali]

27. nope.

Maine --95.8% White
New Hampshire --95.1% White
Connecticut --79.9% White
Idaho --92.5% White
Iowa --93.0% White
Kansas --85.4% White
Kentucky --89.5% White
Montana --89.7% White
Massachusetts --82.8% White
Michigan --79.5% White
Minnesota --87.8% White
West Virginia --94.6% White
Vermont --96.3 White
Wyoming --91.8% White
North Dakota --91.0 Whte
Utah --89.1% White
Washington --80.5% White
Tennessee --79.2% White
Rhode Island --82.6% White
Nebraska --88.6% White
Wisconsin --87.5% White
South Dakota --87.2 White
Oregon --86.1% White
Indiana --86.0% White

[Buzz Clik]

29. Jesus Fucking Christ.

Here's my source.

http://www.ipoaa.com/us_black_population.htm

Get the stick out of your ass and go bother someone else.

[cali]

32. oh go do something unspeakable to yourself

with a stick or any implement of your choice. We have differing sources. And you want to be abusive? Hey, I play that game right back.

:hi:

[hfojvt]

28. I would think North Dakota is too

Maybe there are lots of Native Americans there. Now the Almanac shows me WV at 96.2% white. Still, ND is only .6% black compared to 3.1% for WV. Same with places like Montana and Wyoming and South Dakota. Not as white as West Virginia, but not as black either.

[Road Scholar]

30. K&R nt

[ClayZ]

31. K and R

[LWolf]

33. Not if my May 20th vote counts for anything. n/t

[Buzz Clik]

41. Your May 20 will count the same as all the others.

At the moment, it seems that the odds are heavily stacked in Obama's favor.

[nsd]

34. I'm hoping it's (effectively) over on May 7.

If Obama wins both Indiana and North Carolina, then I think that's it -- we're done. The rest is just tidying up loose ends.

Given the current polls, North Carolina looks solid. Indiana is where the battle is.

[StevieM]

36. Nice try. See you in Denver (eom)

[TahitiNut]

38. There's a "Denver" on your planet?

Wow. Go figure. :eyes:

[WeDidIt]

40. Hillary still has a statistical chance to stop it

She must first gain 60% of all delegates in all states between now and May 20. That requires ~75% of the popular vote.

She must then take 161 of the remaining 240 super delegates (the 240 number does not count add-on super delegates allocated by state parties).

She will then have kept both of them from mathematically being capable of reaching 2024.

[Buzz Clik]

42. Yeah, it seems like quite a steep climb.

[oviedodem]

43. It will be a MIRACLE if Obama wins either Indy or NC after this weekend.

[Dyllyn]

44. Why?

[oviedodem]

47. He is tied in Indiana and everytime people walk in the booth they

choose her. NC is within the undecided range as well. Wright is f*****g up his campaign no matter how true SOME of what he says is. As we have seen in pennsylvania, what some democratic and republican strategists are admitting, is that race is a factor and it is playing a major role.

[Dyllyn]

48. Wright won't make a difference in NC

They either love obama or hate him down there. HRC loses NC imo . Overall IN NC net gain for Obama and Hill is further behind than she is now.

The only way the Sd's can help her is by declaring for her ahead of NC

[Buzz Clik]

49. Delusional.

This is the gap in North Carolina:



You've got about 10 days to get the cracker vote in North Carolina registered and mobilized to turn it around. Even if you had the time, there aren't enough crackers to get it done.

[Buzz Clik]

45. A miracle will be required for him to lose NC