West Virginia Projections based on Demographic Attributes

[usregimechange]

Introduction



West Virginia (WV) is located in the central Midwest directly south of Pennsylvania and Ohio. Its primary will be held on Tuesday May 13th and it has 39 pledged delegates up for grabs. Independents and those who mark “no party affiliation” may vote in the Democratic primary.

WV is significantly less educated than the county having 14.8% with a Bachelors degree or higher, compared to the national average of 24.4%. WV is also moderately more elderly than the county with 15.3% 65 years old and over relative to a national average of 12.4%. WV is ranked 37th among the states in terms of its concentration of African Americans (3.3%), which is significantly less than the national average of 12.8%. In short, WV is largely white, uneducated and old, making it prime Clinton country.


Population location and density

Below is a population map for the state with the largest cities and their populations indicated:



2000 Census population density map:



Notice that the density of Kanawha County (221.6 persons per square mile) is somewhat deceiving given its land area. It is the most populous county in WV with 200,073 people (11% of the state wide population). Several other counties have higher densities in part due to also having less land area.


Explanation of projections

Projections are not made without a candidate having a significant advantage. These advantages are assumed based on a county having above the state and national average in each demographic category. The categories and and cutoff scores are listed below with the state and national average:

Whites - National average 80.1%, WV state average 94.9%, cutoff projection > 98% to Clinton.
Elderly (65yo+) - National average 12.4%, WV state average 15.3%, cutoff projection > 17% to Clinton
Blacks - National average 12.8%, WV state average 3.3%, cutoff projection > 20% to Obama
Educated (Bachelor's degree or higher) - National average 24.4%, WV state average 14.8%, cutoff projection > 28% to Obama


Projections




WV's educated population



Morgantown in Monongalia County WV


Monongalia County home of Morgantown and West Virginia University has an educated population more than twice the state average - 32.4% of its residents have a Bachelors degree or higher. Morgantown has 47.8% with a Bachelors or higher. It is also vastly young with WV's lowest elderly population at 10.5%. This accounts for Obama's only stronghold that I am able to project. Why are there not more?

First, there are several counties with educated populations above the state average of 14.8% but Monongalia county is the only county that is also above the national average of 24.4%. If I were to assume that these counties also would go to Obama on the basis of having an educated population only above the state average the projection map would look much different. Below I have included a map that would show Obama leaning counties as well as the projected counties.


WV African Americans



There are no counties that can be projected based on high concentrations of African Americans. Indeed, the county with the largest concentration of Blacks, McDowell County at 10.6%, is still below the national average. Charleston, WV's capital and most populous city, has an African American population of 15.1% but the county, Kanawha County, is 7.4% Black. For fun I have gave McDowell county to Obama on the Lean Obama county map discussed above and located at the end of this thread.


WV elderly



You can see Obama stronghold, Monongalia County, colored yellowish white above indicating few elderly citizens. There are 4 other counties that fall just below the national average of elderly. There are 10 counties projected for Clinton based on a high concentration of elderly citizens. These counties are also vastly white. Ohio County is not projected for Clinton even though it met the elderly cutoff given it's conflicting demographical composition of educated citizens above the state average.


WV Whites



A cutoff of 97% white was enough to project a number of states for Clinton (state average is 94.9% white). It is important to remember that central Midwest whites are not the same as whites who are, for example, in urban areas or out west. They are more likely to vote for Clinton. This state will be very difficult for Obama to win.

A recent poll indicates the difficulty for Obama here:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a8387b97-af37-4abb-8240-b9968105c78c%20


Obama Lean counties with Clinton projected counties:

[usregimechange]

1. 04 map

[Colobo]

2. Hillary 70%, Obama 30%. WV is a lost cause.

[RBInMaine]

4. He'll have done well if can take it to 40%. Very tough terrain for Obama.

[NJSecularist]

3. Obama will do well in Morgantown, but that's about it.

Obama will be lucky if Hillary does not reach 70.

Hillary: 70
Obama: 30

[terrell9584]

5. you have Obama winning McDowell

That's a coal field county. If you want any reference as to how McDowell will go, reference the Virginia primary and see how the SW panhandle went. Same for Mingo and Logan. Kanawha won't be going for Obama.

Expect Hillary to pull between 72-77 in this state,

[usregimechange]

8. I didn't project McDowell county for Obama, please read or read again

[usregimechange]

9. Kanawha County has a high % of edu citizens and decent AA population for WV

[RBInMaine]

6. Based on your analysis and that I's can vote in Indiana, who wins Indiana in your opinion?

[usregimechange]

7. Obama will do better there than in PA, I would guess Clinton by under 5%

[carpetbagger]

10. No way, unless the race ends May 6th.

If Obama couldn't carry Alleghany Co, PA (Pittsburgh), there's no way he's taking semi-suburban Putnam County. Additionally, McDowell Co is going to go really, really heavily for Clinton, my guess would be 70% or higher. she pulled 79 and 90% (yes, 90%) in the two adjoining counties in Virginia.

All of the unlisted counties are safe for Clinton. Look at the PA, OH, and VA maps. There's no daylight to be seen (the Winchester VA area aside, although neighboring Hardy County is more like Cumberland MD, which was almost 2:1 Clinton). I've worked in Mineral County before (parts of it are literally a stone's throw from downtown Cumberland), and you can call it now, even if Clinton drops out.

I think Obama will win Mon and Jefferson (which is an exurb of Washington DC). Cabell and Berkeley will be close. The rest will be Clinton's.

My guess: 70-30, unless the Tee-Vee says Clinton's toast on May 7th.

[usregimechange]

11. Agreed but demos show slight advantage Obama just as they did in Alleghany PA

more edu than WV ave and young.

[Avalon6]

12. Obama is going to lose 25+ delegates from West Virginia and Kentucky I'm afraid

[Rhythm]

13. I have my doubts about Obama taking Monongalia County... here's why:

Although Morgantown seems like it would (diverse racial breakdown, upper middle-class residents, the university et al), Morgantown is not all there is to the county. Westover, Morgantown's 'sister city' across the river, is not nearly as wealthy, and has a population equal to Morgantown's when the students are away. The rest of the county is very rural.

The college kids are wound up, and so are some of the profs... but the semester ends on May 10th (and our primary isn't until the 13th), so that will likely be a large factor.

I've lived in Mo'town for about 5 years, and it's really tough (using anecdotal evidence) to see where this one will go. People are excited, however, because this is the first time in years that our state has been 'in play.'

[usregimechange]

14. Thanks for the good inside info, if he can't win there... where could he?

[Rhythm]

17. I really couldn't answer that... the "north-central" is the only part i'm familiar with

I suppose the region areound Charleston is a probability... i just know that the more 'diverse' elements of the Morgantown area dry up after finals...

[usregimechange]

18. Well maybe they will hang around for a few more days...

[Rhythm]

19. I don't really look for that to happen...

Anyone who has ever lived in a 'college town' knows that it becomes a ghost town after finals, primarily because the University-owned housing kicks them out the weekend after finals.

[BlooInBloo]

15. Seems like a lot of work to come to the obvious conclusion....

EDIT: But at least you got the correct conclusion. :)

[hokies4ever]

16. Strong anti-Clinton sentiment in WV

Having lived in West Virginia for a year in the late 90s, I can attest to there being a very strong anti-Clinton sentiment in some parts of WV, which might counterbalance some of these other factors.

[Rhythm]

20. Hogwash... she's led every poll here for months

sometimes by as much as 30%.

We don't have a lot of delegates here, but the fact is that the vast majority will go in Hillary's column in just over 2 weeks.

[usregimechange]

21. He can limit that advantage if the MSM would not talk about the war on wright

[bhikkhu]

22. LOL - How is Wright polling in WV?

You are probably correct. I get my news here rather than the MSM, but if the viral explosion of Wright threads in the GDP is any indication....