Guam - The forgotten island - The numbers

[dbmk]

Hello everyone. Time for some facts again (and perhaps a little speculation.)

Guam

An island that apparently scares people to the degree that they dare not utter its name.

Lets see for ourselves what kind of beast we are talking about:


I haven't been able to locate Guams State Delegate Selection Plan for the Democratic primaries. But here is what http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/GU-D.phtml#0503">TheGreenPapers have to say about it:
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A Territorial Convention made up of all interested voters meets to choose 8 of Guam's 13 delegates to the Democratic National Convention (together representing 4 of Guam's 9 delegate votes at the National Convention). Guam's caucus is conducted like a party-run primary where voters cast secret ballots in their respective precincts. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates.

* Each of these 8 pledged delegates will only cast ½ (or 0.5) of a vote on the floor of the Democratic National Convention.
-------

So just to muddy the concept waters, we now have a caucus run as a primary. :)
(The final 5 of the 9 mentioned delegates are the super delegates.)

Pollsters seem to avoid the Guam subject too, as I have been unable to find any polls on what the outcome might likely be in Guam.
What we can say is what the percentages for a given split will look like:

Split percentages: | 6,250% | 18,750% | 31,250% | 43,750% | 56,250% | 68,750% | 81,250% | 93,750% |

So to get a 2,5-1,5 split for +1 delegate either candidate will have to get above 56,25% of the vote. 68,75% for a 3-1 win seems a little bit too much out of the ordinary for any of the two candidates, but I really have no clue.

So there you have it. Not so scary after all, huh?

Would love to hear from anyone willing to offer up opinion, or even better, numbers on what the situation is out there.
(phrigndumass has a presentation of Guam http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5589329">here. Not sure it holds up though. :) )

[TahitiNut]

1. Do the sweat-shop workers get to attend the convention?

Thought not. :shrug:

[dbmk]

2. You are going to have the explain that a little further

My knowledge on Guam issues are honestly almost non existing.

[TahitiNut]

16. Colonial economy. Colonial politics. Sham unions. Sweatshops where FLSA doesn't apply.

:shrug: It's not a secret.

[dbmk]

17. It might not be a secret

But trust me; Guam issues do not get much coverage in here Europe. :)
So I hope my ignorance can be excused.

[TahitiNut]

20. Sorry... I keep forgetting you're a fellow Scandanavian.

:hi: (I'm the grandson of Norwegian immigrants.)

[babylonsister]

18. All the sweatship workers in Saipan went through Guam. They're

all in cahoots.

[TheDoorbellRang]

3. Yes. Who dares forget Guam! The island of mystery

Loved your map. :spray:

You may have missed phrigndumass' assessment of Guam. Well worth a look. :D


I don't think anyone has their pulse on Guam right now, other than to purely speculate it will end up 2-2 or 3-1 in one or the other's favor. If it votes anything like American Samoa did, it will favor Clinton but not by enough to give her three delegates to his one. I'll place my bet on a 2-2 tie.

[dbmk]

9. Remember we are dealing with 8*½delegates here.

2-2 might be a likely outcome, but from what I can read, 2,5-1,5 in Clintons favour is close.

[TheDoorbellRang]

15. Looks like their super D's are worth more than their elected D's

They have eight elected delegates worth 0.5 each, so four there. Then they have five super delegates. :wtf:

One SD has already declared for Clinton, according to TheGreenPapers.

I think our primary system is going to get a lot of looking into after this is over. Why territories vote in the primary but can't vote in the GE seems just plain odd. It should be both or neither, I would think.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

4. Nice work and all, but am I the only who thinks it's rather ridiculous

that we are actually paying attention to places that aren't even states? I mean WTF, they can't vote in the actual election so why are they in the nomination process?

[dbmk]

8. Shouldn't that question be the other way around?

[Exilednight]

12. No, the question is why do we flex empirical muscles over such countries? n/t

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

22. I guess your suggesting statehood? Well I don't know about Guam, but I believe

PR has turned that down via referendums.

[babylonsister]

5. I used to live on Guam.

If you think politics in the US are corrupt, you should check that place out. The absolute worst I've ever seen in my life! So nothing will surprise me there. But they don't even get to vote for a prez AFAIK, so this delegate thing is baffling to me. I also haven't spent any time researching it because I have huge doubts about anything anyone votes for there.

[virgdem]

10. When did you live there?

We were stationed there from 1991-1993. When people ask me how I liked Guam, my standard reply is "hell with palm trees." Seriously, there were things I did like about Guam, but the constant Typhoons were not at the top of the list. What was your experience like?

[babylonsister]

14. We lived there for 11 months, 94-95, in Mangilao.

My DH worked for an airline there, graveyard shift. He'd get home in the a.m., go to take a shower, and the water, or power would go out. And we'd always get charged MORE when we had hardly any electricity. I remember sitting in my car w/aircon one night because the cement house was so bloody hot. Their infrastructure sucked and still does, and everything was always blamed on the brown snakes. :eyes: How about government corruption and ineptness?
My sister lived there when we got there; we overlapped. She was there for that big typhoon in 94? They landed at the Hilton after that hellacious storm hit. That Hilton is still there; we've gone through Guam a fair amount since en route to Bali and have to spend the night. That is usually the airline contract hotel.
We have government IDs so did get to enjoy Terragui (sp?), that fabulous beach at Andersen AFB. Some of the beaches were gorgeous, but I have to agree; hell with palm trees.

[windbreeze]

24. OH yes, the beach at Anderson...omg...lovely...like something out of

the movie So.Pacific....and Talafofo Falls...loved it..Micronesia Mall..cement telephone poles...rain so warm you could take a shower if you had soap...swap meets that started at 4:30am...but no birds...wb

[virgdem]

25. I see you have some war stories as well.

the power problem was the most aggravating next to the endless Typhoons that came right over Guam. It was as if Guam had a bulls eye painted on the Island and the Typhoons were using the Island for target practice. We had load shedding (rolling power outages) constantly, however, since we were Military and lived on Naval Base, we did not have to pay for the electricity that we never had. Some consolation. I do agree about the rampant corruption on the Island. Getting the locals to do anything was like banging your head against the wall. When we first arrived and the ombudsman picked us up at the airport at o'dark thirty, the first thing out of her mouth was "Hafa Adai, and that means that the natives all work "half a day." It was all down hill from there. Ah, the Island of Thieves. What can you say about Guamanians, except that five of my cats that I brought back from Guam, of which four are still alive, are smarter than some of the natives. I could go on forever, but I'm sure you understand what I'm saying.

[Zhade]

6. Guam is the primary equivalent of b*s*' much-touted Poland support.

NT!

[grantcart]

7. whats the over/under lol

[dbmk]

11. :)

I mangled some numbers there. Should be corrected. :)

[goldcanyonaz]

13. If this fucker comes down to Guam, we are so FUckED@!!

[4themind]

19. WHat's the population?

[dbmk]

23. July 2007 estimate: 173,456

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guam

[Rosa Luxemburg]

21. You would think that Obama would do well there

being brought up for part of the time in the far east. It would seem that overseas are going for Obama?