(Watch Florida!!!..any polls?) Now that Ohio and Missouri are off the tabl

[LimpingLib]

Its going to be tough to win West Virginia, Missouri , and Ohio now that we dont have Gephardt so now we need to take Virginia or Florida or a cocktail of Nevada, New Hampshire, and somewhere else.Come to think of it we could loose New Mexico (only state to really be worried about flippinf to GOP from 2000) or possible Iowa.

I dont really think we can feel too confident about Florida.I thought all along we should concede there and just focous on Ohio but not now. Florida is the one to watch.

Any polls?

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DenverDem]

2. Bullshit.

There are no states that are "off the tab". busholini is such a total screw up that the whole country is wide open.

EVERY state is winnable with this ticket.

don't buy (or spread) the elite hype.

[LimpingLib]

6. Spread too far and wide and you get soft.

Our best bet was to dispatch a pro labor VP like Gephardt to spend the whole campaign in Ohio or Missoui and we had an ace in our sleeves.

Now we need another strategy. Im offering it.

Yours?

[DenverDem]

8. First, no defeatist bullshit.

Second, take the argument to the people of the nation and build a movement.

Third, prosecute the hell out of this treasonous maladministration after we win the election.

Gephardt is a pink tutu loser who would have been poison to this campaign. Labor knows who to support, now the rest of the country can get on board.

[LimpingLib]

11. I actualy think we can take Florida.

That will be enough.


I just wish Kerry didnt let a popularity contezt among D students influence his VP selection.Of coarse Edwards was viewed a little higher in polls.He was more attractive (I dont think he looks that good though)and young and energetic and had better rhetoric than Gephardt.

We need to work harder due to that choice now and our chances are only 50-50.

[ibegurpard]

12. Once again, bullshit.

that might be YOUR opinion but it is by no means a fact. Any advantage Gephardt might have brought to the table would have been negated by the extreme hostility many activist Democrats have towards him because of his ineffective leadership the past four years and his instrumental role in Bush's Iraq War Resolution.
You may call it shallow but I know of several people who are not at ALL fond of Kerry who liked Edwards a lot. I don't see it but it works for them and I don't hate him so that's a net plus.

[DenverDem]

13. You are a laugh riot.

And yeah, you shouold get off of your supercilious ass and work on this campaign to save the country like most of the rest of us here are doing.

[libertad]

31. I think Florida is winnable with a lot of hard work.

I was wearing my Kerry t-shirt on the 4th of July and got a couple of positive comments. (Of course, the sticker on my car was spit on, too - no kidding.)

[bitchkitty]

32. Jesus, talk about sour grapes!

A popularity contest among D students? Please. Also, as a woman, I can tell you that Edwards looks DAMNED GOOD, and he'll look even better standing next to ass-faced Cheney in the debates. Here's a picture of Cheney debating for you:



I wanted Dean, with all my heart. For a few weeks I let the disappointment overwhelm me, and I got pretty nasty. But I got over it, and I suggest, for the sake of your sanity, that you get over it too.

edit - you'd think that in 49 years I'd have learned how to spell!

[sandnsea]

21. Kerry won the union vote already

He won it in the primaries. He always wins it in Massachusetts. Labor likes Edwards too anyway. Not choosing Gephardt means they've definitely got the union vote wrapped up.

He's already got all these endorsements:

AFL-CIO
Air Line Pilots Association
Alliance for Economic Justice
Amalgamated Transit Union
American Federation of Government Employees
American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME)
American Federation of Teachers
American Maritime Officers
American Nurses Association
American Postal Workers Union, Local 3844, South Shore Area
American Postal Workers Union, Local 7048, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
ATU Local 589
Bricklayers & Allied Craftworers, Local #3, New York
Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers
Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees
Building and Construction Trades Department
California School Employees Association
Carpenters Local 824
Central Florida Labor Council, AFL-CIO
Communication Workers of America
Commuter Rail Workers United, Dave Luddy, President
Connecticut Education Association
The Georgia Association of Educators
International Association of Fire Fighters
Oregon State Fire Fighters Council
International Association of Fire Fighters - Local 64, Kansas City, Kansas
International Association of Fire Fighters - Local 2445, Titusville, Florida
Int’l Alliance of Theatrical State Employees
Int’l Association of Iron Workers
Int’l Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers
Int’l Brotherhood of Boilermakers
Int'l Brotherhood of Police Officers (IBPO)
Int’l Brotherhood of Teamsters
International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers
Int’l Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers
International Union of Operating Engineers - Local 877, Norwood, MA
International Union of Operating Engineers - Local 478, Hamden, CT
International Union of Operating Engineers - Local 98, Springfield, MA
International Union of Operating Engineers - Local 57, Providence, RI
International Union of Operating Engineers - Local 4, Boston, MA
International Union of Painters and Allied Trades
International Union of Police Associations (IUPA)
Laborers Local 591
Laborers’ Int’l Union of North America
Marine Engineers’ Beneficial Association
Massachusetts Nurses Association
Massachusetts Teachers Association
Michigan Education Association
National Farmers Union Political Action Committee
Michigan Professional Fire Fighters Union
National Air Traffic Controllers Association
National Education Association
National Education Association Rhode Island
National Treasury Employees Union
National Weather Service Employees Organization
New England Council Local 35 of Painters and Allied Trades
North Central Pennsylvania Building and Construction Trades Council
Office and Professional Employees Int’l Union
Operative Plasterers’ & Cement Masons Int’l Association
Pace International Union
Pennsylvania AFL-CIO Executive Council
Plumbers and Gas Fitters, Local 12, Kevin Cotter, Business Agent
Professional Firefighters of Massachusetts
Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union
Seafarers Int’l Union of North America
Service Employees International Union
Sheet Metal Workers’ International Association
UFCW Local 1500
United Auto Workers (UAW)
Teamster Local 705, Secretary Treasurer Anthony Zero
Tennessee Professional Fire Fighters Association
Texas State Association of Fire Fighters
Transport Workers Union of America
United Association of Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Springler Fitters
United Farm Workers
United Food and Commercial Workers Int’l Union
United Steelworkers of America
United Teachers Los Angeles
Utility Workers Union of America

[LimpingLib]

24. My last reply.

First of all union workers and their familys are fairly indipendent of their bosses. Many can vote either Dem or GOP depending on various issues (when both saides dont appeal to them BIG TIME on labor issues as is often the case)certain canidates take.They are very sensitive to workers issues though more so than any other sgment of the population and THEY VOTE in fairly large numbers (though many sit out the elections in disgust) They are a hugh number when you add their relatives and familys though only 13% a actual union members.

Now , union bosses always support Democrat for obvious reasons. Also politics plays a role , they tend to vote support for a canidate that is percieved to be electable .Some government worker unions endorced Dean over Gephardt thinking Dean had the nomination in the bag.Once Gephardt dropped out then they choose Kerry over Edwards.

Union voters cant just have a bunch of gas blown at them from some charismatic speach and be expected to swallow it whole and float to the polls like a baloon. You need to adress their issues in endless specific meetups and town halls and labor ralleys and talk 1on1 to many after the event closes. You need to get them motivated to get their entire neighboorhood and evey last relative to vote. You want them to work hard campaigning and enjoy it feeling it will be worth while.

Edwards has appealed to upper income and college students. Ive seen a large crowd of college students erupt over a Pro Choice soundbite (indicating liberal tendancys) and then applaud a soundbite indicating a repeal of Taft-Hartly.Problem is that once the college students had explained to them what Taft-Hartley meant then most opposed repealing it.Edwards will speal to them and evn get the labor booses to reccomend to their members a vote.

Problem is its beside the point. The point is that workers need good reasons to get energized.

[sandnsea]

27. Let me try again

Every union source I've spoken with says their union is energized like never before to get the vote out for Kerry. Kerry won the union vote in the primaries all by his little lonesome. He did better than Gep. He wins the blue collar and union vote in Massachusetts and he actually wins more mainstream working class Dems than "liberal elites". Edwards appeals to rural America, upper middle income, college students, AND labor. Between Kerry & Edwards, they appeal to the most broad cross-section of Dems out there. Not only do we have a chance to win, we have a chance to get rural Dems and the working class Dems that had been going Republican all these years. I live in rural America and have all my adult life. They are going to go wild over Edwards! I've even got cops in my little town going for Kerry. There is absolutely no reason for any doom and gloom about Ohio, Missouri or almost any other state in the union for that matter. There's only about ten that we absolutely can't win.

[redwitch]

35. impressive!

add redwitch to the bottom , I heartily endorse this ticket.

[TexasSissy]

38. Kerry decided nat'l strategy rather than "per state" strategy.

"per state" strategy is old hat. Last time choosing a VP helped win a state was LBJ, when he brought in his home state of Texas.

So Kerry went for national appeal, to generally help the thrust of the ticket's numbers.

I've heard pundits say that for some reason the midwest is excited about Edwards, as are other areas of the country, like the southwest (go figure), and of course the south.

Gephardt has lost his strong appeal in recent years, so I think some people would have been expecting more than he could deliver, as far as states go. And he had limited national appeal. So Kerry would've been banking on Gephardt bringing in specific midwestern states, so he would've lost if that hadn't happened.

A strategy thing. It sounds reasonable to me.

[MallRat]

41. If Gephardt was so popular in the Midwest...

...why did he get obliterated in the Iowa caucuses?

Edwards has far better reach into Midwestern rural areas than Gephardt ever could. Ohio and Missouri are firmly in play.

-MR

edited to fix spelingg.

[spooky3]

3. This is not persuasive.

I'll be more convinced if you come back with post-today's announcement polls in these states and they show a trend in the direction you described.

I doubt that will happen.

[Droopy]

4. I wouldn't say that Ohio is off the table

It's a heavily industrialized state. Lot's of working people in Ohio who could be turned on by Edwards.

[ibegurpard]

5. I reject the premise

that we needed Gephardt to win in these states.

[Dookus]

7. Not at all

Edwards' message will do very well in the industrial swing states, like Ohio.

[Kukesa]

23. John-John will be in Dayton tomorrow.

I'm on the volunteer committee and will be working during their visit.

I attended a pre-event meeting and I'm very impressed with the enthusiasm and willing-to-work-hard attitudes that were exhibited by all the volunteers tonight.

We expect 9,000 people tomorrow! Besides Kerry and Edwards, Teresa and Elizabeth will be there and so will all their children!

The gates were supposed to open at 2:30 pm but the Secret Service requested we open them at 1 pm due to the huge crowds; Kerry is scheduled to speak at 4 pm.

After that meeting I attended a "Women for Kerry" meeting and it was the same atmosphere -- we Buckeyes will do everything we can to assure this election.

Don't forget, Shrub took this state with only 50% of the votes last time -- hardly overwhelming. I KNOW we'll do better THIS time.

[LimpingLib]

25. Whenever we had talks here about Ohio a year back

when we all were talking about political chances in certain states , I was one of the few that said not only that we had a chance in Ohio but it is really a state we should be glad to have as part of the nation.

Man this got off topic (read the other replys).Thanks for the info it was relevant.

[katieforeman]

39. My mom will be at that event.

I'm so upset I won't be in Dayton to aattend.

[katieforeman]

9. I'm from OH and people love Edwards there.

[farmbo]

10. Err...sorry...Ohio is ours to lose.There're just 3 things we need to do:

Work, work, work!!

And, oh yeah...QUIT LISTENING TO DOOM & GLOOMERS!!!

Edwards will play well in Ohio...better than Gephardt.

[LimpingLib]

20. I was being a bit sarcastic with th "off the table" comment.

I didnt mean for this thread to get too many replys. Just wanted a few Florida comments and poll numbers.Now that this took a different track.....

Here is the problem .


Nader was blammed for causing Gore to have to spend alot of extra time and reources in many states he sould have had in the bag (Minnesota , Wisconsin , Iowa , Oregon , etc.)instead of being able to work on Ohio. Many say the decision to focous heavily on Florida and ditch Ohio was a bad bet. Perhaps it was a great bet (minus the GOP tactics that stole the election)since Liebermann had little appeal to the union workers and their relatives in Ohio and had solid appeal to the more wealthy people in Florida.

Anyway Gephardt was lousey when it came to building support beyond labor , at least lousey as far as the goal of flashing himself off infront of enough idiots to build himself a solid movment that could make him a contender. Edwards knew how to use his communication skills and power of persuasion. His 2 Americas rhetoric was fantastic , I admit I had to fight back tears after his Iowa 2nd place speach. I eagerly awaited his actual policy outline. Never came. It was run of the mill stuff.

Gephardt unlike Edwards knows that the whole trade situation has really worked out bad for workers. Edwards voted for the China trade deals and every nation (even Mexico) is loosing jobs to China. It is the worst place on earth for workers. Ive heard storys of workers loosing 4 hours pay for making a mistake on the line. Not only are wages rock bottom but workers can be abused. Corperations are flocking there. No amount of opposition to FTAA , Fast track , or any other trade deal will save jobs when we still have the China trade deal on the books. The problem is that China is no longer an issue (to the media and politicians without any inner compass), its a "done deal.. time to move on to the next issue" . Actualy it isnt but Edwards (who was never on our side to bgin with) seems to figure that if the media isnt talking about it then it isnt worth sounding off on (which is Edwards essence: sounding off ). Ive even heard Republicans say that if we stop tradding with China then the jobs wont come back here but just go to where many came from , like South Korea or Japan.True , only because all our other trade deals stink as well but they overlook the fact that at leat the jobs out of China will enable some money to go to workers and help the world economy.

Gephardt isnt perfect , infact almost all politicians are 1 dimensional. You just have to hope they have at least 1 issue where they are right on . Gephardt is pretty good on Labor issues , though not perfect. I dont think he ever criticises unions for never going after new industrys , as they usually only focous on jobs already highly unionized . Wallmarts and other industrys might seem low wage and "not worth it" but the steel mills and others were low wage till the workers made them high wage and worker firendly. Industrial unions are only about 6% of the nation now with government jobs bing anothe 6% for a total of 12%. Some states hav a higher number and then the workers with their familys can total over 30% or even 40% in some states. Like trucking , service jobs cant leave this country no matter how bad trade deals are. Wallmarts MUST be unionized and can be but the elite media has given unions a rotten reputation plus politicians are out of touch (even Gephardt is a little)and the union bosses seem to just want to hold what they have and wither away with each passing year. We actuay need labor rights more than ever , sadly nobody seems to be able to see past the media smokescreen about unions being a relic from the past and full of "lazy workers" . I could give examples but wont of worker abuses.

Anyway Gephardt isnt perfect but can communicate quite well with the issues at play with Ohio citizens.Edwards rhetoric is more universal and could help do better than ever with young college students (who are out of touch with labor and other issues)but he wouldnt do good adressing specifics 1on1 with Ohio residents hit hard. Edwards just doesnt have that 1 issue that sets him apart like Kerry (energy) or Gephardt (labor). Workers are really in bad shape and Gephardt touches the issue. Energy from petro is becoming scarce and prices will go up about $5 a barrel every year on average . Kerry and Gephardt each adress at least 1 big issue for our future. Gephardts issue also happens to help us with real voters and by coincidence voters that happen tobe congregated in heavy numbers in certain states, and by chance (again) a really big important one.

Edwards I suppose might be another Florida type canidate (he is much better nationaly than Liebermann) but not being Jewish (Florida is 10%+ Jewish) he could be a little less impressive to certain Florida voters than Liebermann. He doesnt seem to have solid foreign policy credientals like Gephardt (who is a member of the Council Of Foreign Relations)though that from a policy perspective might be a good thing just will cause the media to further question his credientals. The good thing about Edwards weaknesses on trade and labor issues is that Chenny wont do anything but make Edwards look like a "left winger" on every issue during the debates (regardless of the facts to the contrary). Hopefully Edwards passion play type speaches will translate good in debates but I dont think he has done that good in debates to date.

I tend to think we will need to spread thin like in 2000 and hope our wide net catches enough spoils. If it doesnt then the Edwards decision will look awfully bad in hind site. I do admit to one thing though , I really look forward to Edwards mentioning specific issues and hope they are in sync with our nations problems. Then again I was dissapointed during the primarys after I gave him a serious second look . He just doesnt have many issues in sync with his rhetoric. Im still optomistic though. Anybody with the kind of rhetoric and emotional speaches Edwards has surely must has some policys behind it all.Somewhere buried benneath the pretty sounds.I hope.

[Toucano]

14. You're really misinformed, Limping.

As others have said, Ohio loves Edwards.

Are you thinking Gephardt would bring the labor vote and Edwards can't?

Take a look back at the Iowa caucuses. Labor bailed on Gephardt. Edwards soared!

We in Ohio expect to see A LOT of Sen. Edwards 3 months. :)

[Old and In the Way]

15. No Sale

eom

[ButterflyBlood]

16. Edward is also a populist

you think his "Two Americas" speech won't play well in those states? Gephardt wasn't neccesary.

[fujiyama]

17. Polls have been

all over the place in all those states you've mentioned.

I agree that MO is an uphill climb, but I really don't think that Edwards has any less appeal in that state than Gephardt did. After all Gep never has won a state wide race. It was never a guarantee that Gep could deliver MO.

Plus, polls have been showing that Kerry has been trailing Bush by only 5-7 points in NC, and showed the state tied with Edwards as a then hypothetical VP. Now that it is definite that Edwards will be the VP nominee, we'll see how it shapes up.

Edwards will help a great deal in OH, WV, WI, OR, NM and FL, and possibly puts NC and VA in play. He brings a lot of excitement and will energize democrats and independants.

I think Edwards is a better pick than Gep would have been.

[joanne]

18. I agree

And I can hardly think of ANY states not in the bag for Kerry or in play, except perhaps Texas, Utah and Idaho. :)

[kwolf68]

44. Georgia

The Land of Zell is safely Republican as well.

As is Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina in addition

[RichV]

19. Disagree with your premise

Gep wouldn't have delivered those states automatically. His base in Missouri itself is non-existent outside of St. Louis. Personally, I'd like to see him as Labor Secretary. Be a hell of an improvement over Elaine Chao.

[David Dunham]

22. The Dems in Ohio pleaded with Kerry to pick Edwards, not old Gep

[Spangle]

26. Florida

Florida,
League of Conservation stopped by a couple of weeks ago and passed out lit. They were encouging voting for Kerry. Dicussed "lesser of the two evils."

Haven't seen any polls. But I don't see the "Bush fever" here like I did in 2000.

[genius]

28. Gep wouldn't have helped with those states. Edwards is a bigger plus

[George_Bonanza]

29. Labour bailed on Gephardt in Iowa

Why would they suddenly flock back to their supposed champion? Labour's solidly behind Kerry, with or without Edwards. What we really need are some Southerners to win just one or two states in the South.

[Nicholas_J]

48. No they didnt bail on Gephardt.

Gephardt opicked up the largest percentage of Union family votes in Iowa. with him pulling down 29 percent of Union Voters in that state, Followed by Kerry with 25 percent, followed by Edwards with 19 percent followed by Dean with 18 percent. All but two states are so solidly behind Bush that there is simply no way having Edwards on the ticket will alter Bush's absolte control of the south, where his average lead on Kerry is 17 percentage points. There is not a single political pundit who beleives that Edwards can bring a single state to Kerrys ticket. All pundits beleive is that Edwards increases Kerry stance at the national level, which seems to make no sense to me, as you dont win nationally, but state by state. Edwards greatest strength is in the issue of National Health which Kerry plans on making a centerpiece of the campaign and which he plans on letting Edwards handle while he handles Foreign Affairs and National Security. After Kerry announced Edwards as running mate, he listed three things that would be the centerpieces of his campaign, one was national health, two was Foreign Relations, 3 was corporate tax loopholes and he left the economy out completely.

[WI_DEM]

30. Ohio, Missouri and West Virginia are hardly off the table

Gep had the union bosses but not the rank and file which became painfully evident by his fourth place showing in Iowa.

[Connie_Corleone]

33. You're way off with Ohio

Ohio Democrats are really excited about John Edwards being on the ticket.

[TexasSissy]

37. Yes. I've heard that Edwards increases our chances in Ohio.

Particularly southern Ohio, for some reason.

Also a couple of other midwestern states, but I forget what they are.

[Claire Beth]

34. Florida, Ohio and Missouri...

are still in play. Gephardt wouldn't have made much difference from what I hear.

[Zynx]

36. Gep wouldn't have helped us in either Missouri or Ohio

You have terrible political analysis skills.

[Nicholas_J]

47. Most political pundits beleived

That Gephardt would have won Missouri, and he was the chouce that polls indicated would add the largest percentage point boost to Kerry in Ohio. Four international media outlets analyszing the camapign stated the same thing (BBC, CBC, Deutsche Welle, and Radio France International). All stated that Edwards greatest weakness was that he lacked experience, particularly foreiegn experience, and that Kerry was taking the biggest chance by selecting Edwards. NPR had democratic analysts on who stated that Edwards woiuld not bring a single state to Kerry, and does not have enough pull in North Carolina to win that State for Kerry, though it now is in play ,rather than a solid Bush win. So the authors political skills are far more in line with experts analyzing the election, not just in the U.S. but in the largest Nations in the European Union and Canada.
Gephardt had a great deal of support among rank an file blue union members and in the industrialized midwestern states like Ohio, and Michigan in particular, blue collar union memebers make up as much as 47 percent of democratic leaning voters. Either Kerry feels secuure enough to win those states on his own, or doesnt care about losing them.

[dolstein]

40. I'm laughing right now

Did you HONESTLY because that adding Gephardt to the ticket would have generated a surge of support for Kerry in West Virginia, Missouri and Ohio? Sorry, but most of the undecided voters in these states don't even know who Gephardt is.

Personally, I think winning Missouri will be extremely difficult, although it's worth noting that Edwards, not Gephardt, was the preferred choice of top party officials in Missouri. As for West Virginia and Ohio, both states were competitive even before Kerry named his VP choice, and I can't see how Kerry hurt himself by picking Edwards.

[Name removed]

42. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[LimpingLib]

45. Because I tell the truth and get proven right. (even hoping Im wrong)

First of all look at the past political archives. I get accused of being too pessimistic and then too optimistic. I was accused of being a Freeper when I told the truth about our House chances and like 90% of my house race predictions were right. I even got acused of being a Freeper (and accused of being 100% wrong and uninformed , I never mentioned to him that I knew Gary Condit was called "Gary Condom" like 4 year before his problems came to light to th nation)when I said Ralph Hall would vote for Hastert (this was by a talented blogger who studys the races like a microscope and has his own website but he was blown away by my predictions)long before the election.On the other hand when I spoke confidently a few days before election day about some races going our way (I said both Morella and Bently were toast in my area of MD)a fellow local questioned my judgment on the board then I explained why.I was proven right. I just wish when I was the only one saying Dan Woffard had a solid chance in Pennsylvania that he actualy won but his 51%-49% loss was extremely close considering this was a "sure GOP pickup" to even the most optimistic Democrats (I was always the most pessimistic despite my strong desire to take the House , more so than the other branches).

I said that Virginia and Arizona were fast beoming Democratic states and NOBODY beleved me 2 years ago. I said Texas was also slowly moving our way.Ill be proven right on that too.

I probabilly am forgetting like 1000 things I said where I was way ahead of my time.I dont want to get too far off but ( ONE LAST POINT )I repeated like a drumb for like 3 months that Egypt warned Bush 9 days before 9/11 about the attacks. It was a time when everybody was posting tons of evidence about Bush knowing , and we were scattering badly in like 1000 directions. I simply repeated endlessly the Egypt info and told people this is the alarm we need to sound (not that all the other info wasnt important). Several months later the national media (every outlet..CNN, CBS, etc.) got into a 2 day fit when they discovered this 9 day warning from Egypt (they said it was a "new release" or something, bull$h*t it was touched on over the net)and it nearly came down on Bush like a ton of bricks till all the elites collected themselves and brushed it under the rug and started turning their attack on Democrats targeting Bush too hard (Gephardt was accused of trying to make watergate out of it).Ive been right on so often it isnt even worth arguing over my record is so sterling.

Anyway this thread got way out of hand.I hope Im not right but if Kerry looses then you here the reason here first (even though that wasnt the point of my thread).

[Comicstripper]

43. Um

According to www.electoral-vote.com , Kerry's leading in Ohio.
So there.
Florida, too, I think.

[TruthIsAll]

46. Kerry is poised to get 384 Electoral votes in a landslide

AdjK% = Current Kerry poll adjusted for 70% of undecideds
(which have gone 60-80% historically for the challenger)

CCG= Dem % of Total votes in last 3 elections (Clinton,
Clinton, Gore) vs. Repub (3rd parties excluded). 

The Dems got 52.6% vs. the Repukes 47.4% over the last 3
elections. 

The Kerry numbers are conservative (expect them to increase by
2%), as they do not reflect:
1-Edwards
2-Plame indictments
3-Dem convention
4-Fahrenheit 9/11

* refers to Battleground state

	AdjK%	CCG	EV
AL	42.7	44.8%	
AK	37.1	37.6%	
AZ*	47.6	48.8%	< Kerry could win it (not incl in EV)
AR*	52.6	55.2%	6
CA	58.0	57.4%	55
CO	49.3	48.8%	9 < Kerry could win it
CT	62.6	57.7%	7
DE	57.1	56.8%	3
DC	90.4	90.3%	3
FL*	56.4	50.7%	27
GA	45.3	47.6%	
HI	60.9	59.0%	4
ID	39.0	35.7%	
IL	58.3	57.9%	21
IN	44.4	44.8%	
IA*	51.8	51.8%	7
KS	41.6	42.4%	
KY	45.3	46.7%	
LA	49.0	49.2%	9 < Kerry could win it
ME	54.5	57.1%	4
MD	59.0	57.8%	10
MA	65.2	65.3%	12
MI*	54.0	54.7%	17
MN*	53.5	55.7%	10
MS	36.3	44.3%	
MO*	50.1	52.5%	11
MT	42.8	44.9%	
NE	36.5	37.5%	
NV*	53.3	49.9%	5 
NH*	53.7	51.7%	4
NJ	55.8	56.5%	15
NM*	54.9	53.0%	5
NY	61.3	62.6%	31
NC	49.8	46.6%	15 < Kerry could win it with Edwards
ND	37.2	40.8%	
OH*	52.7	50.8%	20
OK	43.1	42.8%	
OR*	54.5	53.6%	7
PA*	51.4	54.2%	21
RI	64.2	65.6%	4
SC	43.5	44.4%	
SD	44.8	44.5%	
TN*	41.8	50.5%	
TX	40.8	44.3%	
UT	29.7	33.6%	
VT	60.1	59.4%	3
VA	50.6	47.3%	13 <Kerry could win it
WA*	52.8	55.9%	11
WV*	48.6	54.0%	5 < Kerry could win it
WI*	50.4	52.7%	10
WY	30.8	38.3%	
	 ?	52.6	384

[x_y_no]

49. Rasmussen: Florida: Kerry 48% Bush 43%

July 7, 2004--Florida, the decisive state in Election 2000 and a toss-up for most of Election 2004 is now leaning towards Senator John Kerry.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Florida survey finds Senator John F. Kerry with 48% of the vote to President George W. Bush's 43%. A month ago, the candidates were tied in Florida with both Bush and Kerry attracting 46% of the vote.

Based upon this most recent survey data, we have moved Florida to the "Leans Kerry" category in our Electoral College projections.

In Florida, Bush holds a modest lead among male voters, but Kerry leads by double digits among women.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida%20July%207.htm