Predictions for Indiana and North Carolina. ?? Here are mine:

[RBInMaine]

To be conservative, I give Hillary an edge in Indiana by a few points. Five or less. (But VERY hard to predict, and it's an OPEN primary.)

Obama takes North Carolina by 8 to 12 points.

[book_worm]

1. It's a little early to say, but

I think Obama takes NC by double digits (real double digits not 9.2%) and I think Obama will take Indiana by a couple of points.

[Dbdmjs1022]

2. It's a bit early, but if I had to guess. NC - Obama by 10. IN - Obama by 2.

May 7 - Hillary withdraws!

[MadBadger]

3. Indiana: Obama 51 Clinton 49, North Carolina: Obama 61 Clinton 39

[Doityourself]

28. Sounds good to me..I agree. NC is going to be a beating.. I think..

[NJSecularist]

4. Indiana: Clinton: 53, Obama: 47 - North Carolina - Obama: 55, Clinton: 45

[HereSince1628]

15. That seems about right to me.

I'm suspect of currently large proportion of undecideds. Because of Indiana's demographic I'd guess they are mostly going to break to Clinton.

[Tribetime]

5. I'm saying Indiana by 2 also , 14 in N.C.

[candice]

6. The North Carolina Democratic Party is 40% black

95% will be voting for Mr. Obama.

Unfortunately, the Republicans have control of the state, which is why John Edwards couldn't run again for Senator.

[RBInMaine]

9. But it is flipable. Plenty of Dems in legislature and Dem Gov. I think.

[Alcibiades]

12. Please don't say that the Republicans control North Carolina

Democrats control our House of Representatives by a 68-52 margin, and our Senate by a 31 to 19 margin. Our Governor, Mike Easley, our Leutenant Governor, Beverly Perdue, our Secretary of State, Elaine Marshall, and our Attorney General, Roy Cooper, are all Democrats. Seven out of 13 of our House members are Democrats. We do have the miserable Dole and Burr in the Senate, but we'll have a chance to address that situation real soon, when an openly gay man (Neal) will win the nomination of our party and go on to defeat Senator Dole.

Edwards could have run again for the Senate. The problem was that they were clobbering him with the whole "he's more interested in running for Vice President than serving in the Senate" thing last time around, which is the real reason why he chose not to run. He wanted to demonstrate his committment, and he did so by burning his bridges. He's a heck of a campaigner, and I think he would have overcome the odds, had he chosen to run.

Anyway, the Republicans don't control this state, not by a long shot. Yes, we have gone Republican in recent presidential elections, but our party is on top everywhere but in the delegation to the Senate. The secret NC Dems have, in my opinion, is competence. Compared to many other southern states, we have good roads, good schools, good colleges and universities, and good government generally. Historically, Democrats have been the cause of these things. It also helps that Republicans have badly mismanaged the government whenever they've been in control.

Anyway, we have lots of Democrats here. In fact, lots of people who are not from here are here. Every time a Democrat sells a shack somehwere in New York or New England and use the proceeds to buy a mansion here, the party gains another voter. These people, plus the homegrown Dems such as myself, are the hope for making this state go Democratic in 2008. According to the state's board of elections, there are 2,622,596 Democrats, 1,933,865 Republicans and 1,242,195 Unaffiliated voters in NC as of today. In other words, if you have one San Francisco and subtract one Berkeley, that's about how many more Democrats than Republicans there is here.

Obama will beat expectations here, and it's not just due to black folks. White Democrats, especially the liberal activist types such as myself, have been turned off by Senator Clinton, so much so that the rumor is that she cannot actually recruit volunteers here, but has had to send in paid people from New York. In Durham, we've had 7,600 people vote early so far, on pace to hit at least 10,000 by the time early voting ends on May 3. In comparison, we had a total of 30,000 folks vote here in the primary four years ago. Volunteering for Obama has seen an order of magnitude increase over what we had for Kerry last time in the general election. Turnout will be huge, and it will be an Obama tide. Obama by 20 points, 55% to 35%, but that's just based on nothing more scientific than a guesstimate of yard signs and bumper stickers.

[mnhtnbb]

13. Nice summary. I only question your prediction that Neal will win the Dem primary Senate race.

I think Kay Hagan is running ahead of Neal, according to this story from the News Observer, but most people haven't decided for whom to vote.


http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/1027921.html

[Alcibiades]

14. I should have qualified that

You're right, that's wishful thinking on my part, not an objective prediction. I'm sure Hagan is a fine candidate, despite her decision to stay out of the race until they found out Neal is gay. I voted for Neal, but will support our nominee for Senate, whoever that may be. If Neal does win, I do think it will be an uphill battle for him in the fall, but I'm hopeful that he'll win. :hi:

[mnhtnbb]

23. With the strength of the in-state Dems, I couldn't believe they couldn't find a 'name'

to take on Liddy Dole. I can only hope that Dole has been so delinquent in helping constituents, and
so close to Bush, that some who voted for her previously will vote the Dem candidate instead.
Sure would be nice to dump her. :hi:

[littlebit]

29. I was hoping Easley would decide to run.

He would have been an almost certain win against Dole. But he decided he didn't want to. I voted for Neal in the primary. I would love to see him win but I think it is going to be realy difficult for him.

[MattNC]

30. it's pathetic

Liddy Dole would've been ripe to lose. Instead, Moore/Perdue choose to slug it out for the governorship like two petulant children; Easley decided to just chill out and do nothing; and Cooper wants to remain as AG.

[NorthCarolina]

25. I can assure you that is NOT why Edwards didn't run again

Don't forget, he won the first time in spite of Republican efforts in NC to derail him. He declined to run a second time for the simple fact that he was largely unelectable, having had an ineffectual run as a Senator in his first term with a voting record that was severely lacking. He was also a conservative DLC Democrat at a time when many NC Dems were moving left of the DLC platform, and this coupled with a fair amount of local media coverage of his poor performance as a US Senator pretty much sealed his fate. He was quite aware that he would not be victorious in a campaign to retain his Senate seat. Instead, he used the "time off" to begin to shift his personal views more left, and to distance himself from the DLC.

[Alcibiades]

31. Yes, but which John Edwards was the real John Edwards?

I think that the John Edwards who ran for president this time around was the real John Edwards, and that the DLC-type John Edwards who we saw in the Senate was carefully triangulated to win re-election in a state that can be pretty conservative. A mistake, in my view, and he's made a number of them in his short career--nevertheless, I still like him, and hope he's not done.

Anyway, in re the reason why he didn't run again, I hope you're wrong, but you may well be right.

[lojasmo]

7. Indiana, functionally split. NC, Obama by 20% EOM

[Snarkoleptic]

8. Predictions for Indiana and North Carolina.

Hillary will continue using the Rovian playbook and will work her scorched-earth tactics.
There will also be a sidecar of defaulted debts with innuendo and half-truths.

[lojasmo]

10. LOL.

[Buzz Clik]

16. In other words, more of the same.

[FlyingSquirrel]

11. Why stop with Indiana and North Carolina?

Here's the rest of the race in a nutshell.

Obama gets the following delegates:

Guam 2
Indiana 34
North Carolina 62
West Virginia 12
Kentucky 16
Oregon 28

Total 154 (+/- 6)

Has more than half the pledged delegates on May 20. About 110 superdelegates then endorse him since he is guaranteed to be the pledged delegate winner. Obama has at least 1985 delegates by June 1.

Then:

Puerto Rico 24
Montana 8
South Dakota 8

Total 40

1985 + 40 = 2025

And it's over.

[Alcibiades]

19. I hope remaining superdelegates begin to declare after May 6

By then, states totaling 95% of the US population will have voted, and only a handful of states/territories totaling 15,482,000 persons will remain. Dean has said he wants the remaining undecided superdelegates to start declaring now. I hope they take his advice.

[Texas Hill Country]

17. i would agree... but everyone has seemed to agree that Indiana is the tie breaker...

not good for Obama

[Blondbostonian]

20. In your fantasyland perhaps

[Dyllyn]

21. yes and it will be tied . Hill won't win any more delegates than Obama

Therefore NC is the one that countsa because after NC and IN barack's lead will be greater

[Dyllyn]

18. Obama 68% NC 48% IN

This show is over . it's like being at a Rock Concert waiting for another encore after the lights have being turn on .

[oviedodem]

22. No way: Indiana - HC by 8%; NC - HC by 2%

[NeedleCast]

24. After NC and IN: It's Still Over

Despite efforts to continue the spin on the part of the Hillary campaign

Indiana: Obama by 3%
North Carolina: Obama by 15%

[Robbins]

26. My Take

Obama wins NC by at least 10 points.Remember Texas not withstanding once Obama Is In the lead he wins
and often his win Is higher than polls suggest.INdiana could go eather way.Whoever wins It will not be a large margain.This Is better for Obama than PA or Ohio.This could be more like Wisconsion(but no large margain)If polls have Obama In the lead going up to Indiana even by a few points chances are he would previl.Undecideds have rarely moved states during the primarys.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

27. he will be much lower than that in NC thanks to Wright and Wrights MSM friends

I live in NC.

We have alot of GOPs who registered as Dem and Unaffilated to vote in our primary.

Many of these are very racist.

Wright is just stoking the fire against Obama.

He is the worst thing that ever ever happened to Obama.

Obama could handle Hillary Clinton.

He can't stop this clusterfuck that his former pastor is igniting.

[Bucky]

32. I think Clinton will win Indiana, if only because that's the outcome that will prolong the torture

I predict another eight weeks of this back and forth "he's up/no, she's up" bulshit.