Which states can Kerry/Edwards win?

[elperromagico]

This is how I see it.

There are the states which Kerry will almost definitely win, barring a Boosh landslide (which seems highly unlikely at this point):

California - 55
Connecticut - 7
Delaware - 3
District of Columbia - 3
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
New Jersey - 15
New York - 31
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3

Total Electoral Votes - 168

Then there are the states which lean toward Kerry, but could just as easily swing over to Bush:

Iowa - 7
Maine - 4
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
New Hampshire - 4
New Mexico - 5
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Washington - 11
Wisconsin - 10

Total Electoral Votes - 96
Total Strong Kerry & Lean Kerry - 264

If Kerry/Edwards wins all of these states, it is still left with a six vote deficit in the Electoral College. Which states does the team pick up to put them over the top (and to protect them from any crossover to Bush in the lean Kerry states), and perhaps more importantly, how do they do it?

[sniffa]

1. kerry in a LandsLide

he'LL pick up ohio, arkansas, fLorida and possibLy the caroLinas now.

[BeyondGeography]

2. Hint: The campaign makes two stops in Ohio today

Your analysis probably isn't that different from what the Kerry team is looking at. Whoever wins Ohio wins the election.

[rpannier]

3. Let's see

In play are Florida, Arkansas (especially if the Big Dog is out there campaigning), West Virginia and Ohio.
The other states to watch would be Nevada (they have about a 50% turnover rate in the electorate every four years), maybe Arizona, Missouri and Colorado.
There are fewer states that will abandon Kerry, unless something catastrophic happened, than Bush -- Pennsylvania is the one I worry the most about.

[redwitch]

9. The last couple of days in PA must have helped the #'s

Pennsylvanians benefited from the Heinz family largesse?

[Kira]

4. I thought NH

was definitely for Bush. Did that change?

[elperromagico]

8. Kerry has been doing extremely well there.

In most polls, he's been in the lead or within the margin of error. I haven't seen any polls where Bush had a big lead there.

I suspect that Kerry will sweep New England in November. Remember that it's his home region.

[yellowcanine]

10. NH has been back and forth lean Bush - tossup - lean Kerry since the

primary. I believe it will go narrowly to Kerry based on the 2000 results, when it went narrowly to Bush. Kerry should do a little better than Gore in NH for lots of reasons, including that there should be a little hometown New England pride working in Kerry's favor. Not much, but it won't take much. Also NH is full of fiscal conservatives, who can't be happy about the Bush deficits.

[yellowcanine]

5. Ohio does it. I truly believe Kerry has a better shot in Ohio than PA.

Also Florida is likely. Actually, I am inclined to think that either Kerry wins Ohio, PA, and Florida and wins the election going away or he loses those same three states and loses the election. I also think NC, Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee are possible with Edwards on the ticket. Unfortunately for Kerry to win all of these and win the election by a landslide it means that Iraq is still a quagmire and the economy is probably headed back into the toilet. I can't wish for that.

[lovedems]

6. Just think of all the money Team Bush will have to spend in southern

states such as Tennessee, the Carolinas and I have heard Louisiana could be in play now too!

I am thinking with a Kerry/Edwards ticket, the chimps huge war chest isn't looking so huge anymore. They will have to spend money in states they weren't planning on.

When you look at the southern states, South Carolina for example, who have been hit hard with job loss, Edwards message will be quite powerful. With all of the textile jobs they have lost, typical republican voters could easily be swayed by Edwards message.

I predict Kerry/Edwards will pick up one or two southern states because Edwards will speak to them directly about their economic conditions. Wishful thinking?

[Claire Beth]

16. Yeah....Tennessee is in play....

I think NC will be in play now, too. I don't trust the republicans though and expect some dirty tricks out of them. We already know they will stop at nothing and even steal an election if it isn't going their way.

[Mr.Green93]

7. every f'n one!

[eileen from OH]

11. OHIO!

The way I see it working is that the more liberal areas (NE, etc.) will do massive get-out-the-vote efforts to counter and overcome the more conservative rural and SW areas.

Kerry has now brought a very strong professional staff here to bolster the OH Dem Party. We are getting LOTS of help and direction from them and it is positively amazing the number of people who want to get involved and help. And most of 'em have never done anything like this before.

I've said it before but why not one more time. . .Gore was 15 points behind in OH two weeks before the election and pulled all ads, etc. thinking it was lost. With absolutely NO presence in the state, he only lost it by 3.5%. We have a promise/guarantee from the Kerry campaign that they are 100% committed to winning here.

eileen from OH

[yellowcanine]

12. Need to neutralize the gunowner edge pubbies have in Ohio and PA - the way

to do that is to play up the stronger Kerry record on the environment - most gunowners are also sportsmen who hunt and fish. Bush policies are resulting in destruction of fish and game habitat.

[JayS]

17. Easier to say than do, unfortunately. Kerry has no understanding...

...of the "gun issue" and doesn't want to learn. It must be a DLC/DNC type thing.

[calico1]

13. Kerry/Edwards need to visit and visit

often the second group in your list. But also not forget the first group. More emphasis on the second. Ohio and PA need extra attention--especially PA. Its not Pittsburgh and Philly they need to worry about. There is a very large area in between with lots of rural, Conservative leaning areas. Also, Edwards can play a key role in Southern states like the Carolinas (especially North which is more doable than South) and also Ark, La, Nevada, Ky. I think it is very doable as long as they remain focused and not take any State for granted. I don't think they will.

[ps1074]

14. A couple of points

Just my oppinion of course...

First - Kerry won't win EVERY state Gore won in 2000. Too many of the Gore swing states are too close right now to think Kerry/Edwards will win them all. He will probably lose some... WI, IA, MN - some combo for 20 EV I think.

Second - Bush won't win every state he won in 2000. He will probably lose NH and WV. This still leave the dem ticket with 20 or so EV short.

Possible DEM pickups:

1. Ohio
2. Florida
3. NC
4. AZ (hardly)
5. VA (doubtful)

The perfect scenario for Kerry/Edwards is to carry PA, OH, FL, WV or at least 3 of them.

[fujiyama]

20. The only three Gore states

I see possibly switching are OR, WI, and IA. I don't see IA very likely to switch either.

Edwards will really help Kerry's numbers in OR and WI. I actually think Kerry very possibly could win all the states Gore won and win OH, FL (then again there is the fraud factor), and NV.

On the other hand, there are several Bush states that Kerry can win -- NH, OH, FL (not exactly a Bush "win"), WV, NV, hell maybe even TN, KY, NC, and VA.

If Edwards puts NC and VA into play that would be great. I'm skeptical about AZ because Bush had some huge leads in that state, but we'll have to wait and see how much Edwards helps there.

[Clowny]

15. I dont know

From what I hear, Connecticut is leaning towards Bush...but I could be wrong

[fujiyama]

19. Yeah Right

Bush won't won CT any time soon. Several polls had Kerry up by about 20.

[calico1]

21. You're kidding, right?

LOL! Bush will win CT like Kerry will win Idaho!

[x_y_no]

18. We'll fight like hell in Florida

n/t