NEW NC POLL: Obama 10 point lead (ARG)

[adoraz]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

ARG overestimated Hillary's PA lead by 7% (they had her winning by 16%).

Important from article: Obama leads 83% to 13% among African American voters (33% of likely Democratic primary voters).

I expect since PA AAs went 92% for Obama, he will do similar here.

If thats the case, then he may win by 15%. I'm not sure about the math though, I'm too lazy to do it.


Obama will be here in Chapel Hill tonight, probably a gigantic rally. I can't wait. :)

[book_worm]

1. I heard that AA turnout in NC is actually closer to 40%

but I expect that Obama will win by 12-15 points.

[lolpop4]

2. Hillary is closer than I thought

Obama pretty much being propped up on the AA vote alone (which he'll get nomatter what he says or does)

Hillary was down 20+ in older polls (not arg polls necessarily) but she leads him 57-36 among white voters. He's doing worse with white voters in NC than he did in PA.

[Secret_Society]

3. ARG had Clinton +13 in PA

NC is for Obama what PA was for Clinton. Strong demographics and the opponent is hoping to keep it within double digits.

[Coexist]

4. over 100,000 people have already voted there.

and they have the coolest "one-stop early vote" where you can register and vote all at once.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/03/north-carolina-primary-ne_n_94961.html